Hoshotakamoto

This should be the final installment / unpacking. I've deliberately painted an unrealistic picture above the Juryo line - mostly baking in the assumption that day 15 results were whatever the rikishi got on day 14. There are also a number of exaggerated promotions and demotions in that group based on the algorithm that I'm still tuning. Wouldn't recommend playing GTB with this. Below the Juryo line I made a bit of effort. Some of the "obviously not moving up to Makuuchi" records are baked in correctly, even if it doesn't appear to be the case. Below Makushita I made a ton of effort to be consistent with decisions made in various past basho. This is still a work in progress but it's the first attempt I've ever made to strive for a certain level of consistency and completeness all the way down to about Ms30. It also isn't clear to what extent the predictive power of this can actually be improved, given that the decisions made in the real world are somewhat arbitrary.

Tochimusashi > Tsushimanada

News is happening in real time and it's my preference to have complete results for makushita and below vs 13 days of data for sekitori, so I'm trying to get this out in a hurry. Some of the juryo demotees have a full 15 days of accurate data. In other cases I didn't fill out day 14 or 15. My goal is to put together a fairly plausible picture of J11-Ms20. Let's see how it goes. Here are the stacks based on the parameters mentioned above.

Here's a naive unpacking of the stacks. Felt extremely uncharitable in lower makuuchi and in the Ms5-15 range (tough break for many 4-3 finishers as I could barely find room to move them up). I'll do another run through these with a closer eye on historical placements. Also these are indicative of the final records for anyone who goes 1-1 on days 14 and 15, so for fun, what I will do when the day 14 results arrive is to bake in the assumption that everyone finishes out 2-0 or 0-2 (no point in assuming they go 1-1 since I've already done that on day 13).

Here are the stacks after day 13. The placement of makushita wrestlers is relatively haphazard but I do have a spreadsheet coming together to place them in historical context soon enough.

I read the original thread - isn't the real fun of this game to spawn a new belt on each rikishi after he loses a match, and the winner of every match collects all the belts that had been held by the loser? Edit: I just realized I could ask GPT to give every belt a unique name. Oh this will be fun.

It didn't seem like unstacking these was quite so bad although it wasn't great around M12-M15.

These are the actual up-to-date results, possibly omitting some 5-1 rikishi around Ms20. Once their final records come in I'll attempt to place them in a fairly consistent manner with banzuke precedent (which is not very consistent).

Unstacking, I felt like the grinch stealing promotions from these guys to make room for one sanyaku to drop out.

Stacks after day 10 and 11.

Well I let this thing fall several days behind. Rather than submit a bunch of pointless updates from days 6 through 10 I'll jump ahead to the most recent records where sekitori have 11 matches and makushita have 5 matches, then walk forward to the present. I like going with the odd numbered matches because you can model them as if they will finish out 2-2 (or 1-1) and compare vs historical banzuke placements. I actually did spend a considerable amount of time analyzing historical placements over the past few days but the results are not quite ready yet.

Things were shockingly straightforward until it finally got weird from Tomokaze down to Mitoryu.

After 5 days I don't think Kirishima expected to fall down the banzuke with a 4-1 start. Perhaps the math supports moving Kotonowaka's name up to Ozeki based on the "pace" he has set for this basho.

In this recalc Yuma comes out a big winner and I set Onosato aside for one more day to avoid pushing Roga and Nishikifuji an extra half a slot down (this feels like a fair representation of how things often shake out in the end). I started building the banzuke with an empty Komusubi row inadvertently and it went much, much worse than this for Atamifuji. Things shook out nicely after reopening those 2 slots. I think this is the first time I've ever projected Fukai to land a juryo spot. Interesting run for him as the yusho from 2021 was almost fully erased over time, but he's scratching and clawing his way back.

Heading into day 5, I can't give Takakeisho the automatic benefit of the doubt any more Nice recovery for Aoiyama and Kotoshoho.