Banzuke for Hatsu 2018

[robnplunder 976]

In this basho, Mitakeumi would need a Goeido or Kotoshogiku like yusho run to have a chance at Ozeki rank.   They went 15-0 and 14-1, respectively, out of the blue.   And they did so by beating the likes of Kisenosato, Hak, Kak, etc..   Frankly, did anyone guess either could have done that?  Not likely.  Can Mitakeumi pull out such a feat?  Possible but not very likely.   But strange things have happened seemingly in every basho.  So, why not give him the benefit of doubt for starting an Ozeki run?

[RabidJohn 1,855]

2 hours ago, McBugger said:

 But I feel with ozeki-run talk that people are expecting  too much too soon, and that might take away some of the enjoyment and due admiration.

I know exactly where you're coming from, but I feel that in Mitakeumi's case the expectation is quite realistic.

His 9-8-9 wins as a sekiwake came while he was suffering with minor injuries to his neck and big toe. That's remarkable! Without that bit of bad luck, however, we could easily have seen an 11-10-11 run and Mitakeumi promoted to ozeki for Hatsu 2018.

Yeah, yeah - if only... but it does add to the expectation.

So much depends on chance; i.e. the good luck to remain injury free vs the bad luck of sustaining an injury. If he never fully recovers the form he had last January and fails to climb any higher, Mitakeumi will have my continuing admiration for his overall performance throughout 2017. Obviously I'm hoping he can regain full fitness, because if and when he does, he'll make short work of taking that next step!

[Asashosakari 19,669]

9 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I know exactly where you're coming from, but I feel that in Mitakeumi's case the expectation is quite realistic.

His 9-8-9 wins as a sekiwake came while he was suffering with minor injuries to his neck and big toe. That's remarkable! Without that bit of bad luck, however, we could easily have seen an 11-10-11 run and Mitakeumi promoted to ozeki for Hatsu 2018.

Of course, the flipside is that he's had only 5 of 12 possible bouts against the 6 top guys in Aki and Kyushu, so without their injuries he could easily have had back to back makekoshi...

[Gurowake 4,109]

Tamawashi as Ozeki seems totally bizarre.  You might as well speculate on Kotoshogiku's chances to return to the rank.  Sure, he may have been recently a bit worse than Tamawashi, but he's had a long history of staying at the top of the banzuke, while Tamawashi hasn't.  Tamawashi will probably turn out like the other guy who managed to become a sanyaku regular after never making sanyaku for most of his sekitori career: Yoshikaze.  If they were 5 years younger, they'd have the room to grow to be able to complete an Ozeki run, but at this point it seems incredibly unlikely.  Kotomitsuki was widely considered too old to make Ozeki at the time he finally did, and he spent nearly his entire career near the top of the banzuke, whereas Tamawashi and Yoshikaze didn't make sanyaku until they were at least 30.   Not having followed sumo for that long, I have no idea if there are others who had similar late-career surges out of mediocrity, but I'm pretty sure none of them made Ozeki (though the DB went down as I was researching this comment).

Edited December 29, 2017 by Gurowake

[ryafuji 815]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Not having followed sumo for that long, I have no idea if there are others who had similar late-career surges out of mediocrity, but I'm pretty sure none of them made Ozeki (though the DB went down as I was researching this comment).

Kirishima?

[robnplunder 976]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Of course, the flipside is that he's had only 5 of 12 possible bouts against the 6 top guys in Aki and Kyushu, so without their injuries he could easily have had back to back makekoshi...

He also had a few fusen wins I believe.  But he is still the closest contender for the next Ozeki rank.    The other likely contender IMO is Terunofuji provided that his health is at 100% and he stays healthy for the next 6 bashos.  

[Atenzan 1,084]

@Gurowake Kotogahama is an example with a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B. Made Ozeki at 30 and didn't become a joi regular until he was 28. But he hung on for a good few years as Ozeki.

[Suwihuto 133]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Tamawashi as Ozeki seems totally bizarre.  You might as well speculate on Kotoshogiku's chances to return to the rank.  Sure, he may have been recently a bit worse than Tamawashi, but he's had a long history of staying at the top of the banzuke, while Tamawashi hasn't.  Tamawashi will probably turn out like the other guy who managed to become a sanyaku regular after never making sanyaku for most of his sekitori career: Yoshikaze.  If they were 5 years younger, they'd have the room to grow to be able to complete an Ozeki run, but at this point it seems incredibly unlikely.  Kotomitsuki was widely considered too old to make Ozeki at the time he finally did, and he spent nearly his entire career near the top of the banzuke, whereas Tamawashi and Yoshikaze didn't make sanyaku until they were at least 30.   Not having followed sumo for that long, I have no idea if there are others who had similar late-career surges out of mediocrity, but I'm pretty sure none of them made Ozeki (though the DB went down as I was researching this comment).

Could this be a time when there's a brief window between the dominance of the Dai-Yokuzuna and the next generation of youngsters coming through where a couple of mediocre guys make it high on the rankings almost by default? I think it happened in tennis between Sampras and Federer (Hewitt and others), and in snooker in the mid-90s, I'm sure there are many other examples, maybe in golf too when Tiger Woods declined.

[Gurowake 4,109]

1 hour ago, Suwihuto said:

Could this be a time when there's a brief window between the dominance of the Dai-Yokuzuna and the next generation of youngsters coming through where a couple of mediocre guys make it high on the rankings almost by default? I think it happened in tennis between Sampras and Federer (Hewitt and others), and in snooker in the mid-90s, I'm sure there are many other examples, maybe in golf too when Tiger Woods declined.

If this was the case, one would expect it to be Tochiozan and Tochinoshin, who had similar early career arcs compared to Ozeki but ended up not quite good enough.  I've hoped that they could manage to maintain their health long enough to take advantage of the couple of years of youth they had on the Haru/Koto/Kise/Kaku crew, but it doesn't look like they will.  One wouldn't expect it to be rikishi who had trouble even getting into the joi while they were at the ages most rikishi hit their peak.

Edited December 30, 2017 by Gurowake

[sekitori 492]

3 hours ago, robnplunder said:

He (Mitakeumi) also had a few fusen wins I believe.  But he is still the closest contender for the next Ozeki rank.  The other likely contender IMO is Terunofuji provided that his health is at 100% and he stays healthy for the next 6 bashos.  

Concerning Terunofuji, that is a huge "provided". His health hasn't been at 100% for quite a while. He was 13-2 in March and 12-3 in May but In the past three bashos, due to knee injuries, he has gone 1-5-9, 1-5-9, and 0-5-10. Based on those figures, it's doubtful if he's anywhere near 100% at present. If he does happen to become completely healthy again,  he has the ability to reach yokozuna. But considering his history of injury,  it seems doubtful if he can stay healthy for an extended period of time. 

 

[Gurowake 4,109]

4 hours ago, ryafuji said:

Kirishima?

I guess he does work.  Was as hopeless in the joi as Tamawashi before around the time he turned 30, and then managed to make Ozeki and stay there a couple years with some nice results.  Having flipped through the banzuke looking at careers before, I thought he was at least a few years younger than he actually is based on the career arc as sekitori.

[Asashosakari 19,669]

6 hours ago, McBugger said:

@Gurowake Kotogahama is an example with a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B. Made Ozeki at 30 and didn't become a joi regular until he was 28. But he hung on for a good few years as Ozeki.

Though that was at a time (50s/early 60s) when it wasn't that unusual to see guys come up relatively late.

Anyway, the second Masuiyama can be mentioned as another one. Just a random upper maegashira through age 29 (4x komusubi, 23-37 total) he turned himself into a joi regular and then made ozeki two years later.

[maorencze 144]

On 26. 12. 2017 at 13:45, Kintamayama said:

Man, sometimes, you know, like, I feel like taking a remote control and maybe changing the friggin' channel.

 

The TV nowadays needs to learn respect, right!

[Kintamayama 45,532]

2 hours ago, maorencze said:

The TV nowadays needs to learn respect, right!

No respect. I get no respect.

[Yamanashi 3,904]

On 12/29/2017 at 20:14, Gurowake said:

I guess he does work.  Was as hopeless in the joi as Tamawashi before around the time he turned 30, and then managed to make Ozeki and stay there a couple years with some nice results.  Having flipped through the banzuke looking at careers before, I thought he was at least a few years younger than he actually is based on the career arc as sekitori.

Maybe Masuiyama, too.

Longest to Ozeki (post WWII): Kirishima (15.2 years); Masuiyama (13.2 years); Kiyokuni, Asahikuni (12.8 years) ...

Kirishima spent 18% of his bouts as Ozeki, and had a three-year slide down through Maegashira to intai.  Masuiyama spent the last 8% of his bouts as Ozeki.

(Didn't see Asashosakari's previous post -- sorry!)

Edited January 3, 2018 by Yamanashi
acknowledge previous post

[Churaumi 745]

On 12/29/2017 at 19:07, Gurowake said:

If this was the case, one would expect it to be Tochiozan and Tochinoshin, who had similar early career arcs compared to Ozeki but ended up not quite good enough.  

I think Tochinoshin might be too beat up to benefit from the changing of the guard. Maybe if he’d never blown out his knee, but he walks too gingerly too often to stay at the top. Tochiozan maybe a few years ago, but he’s getting less consistent as the basho fly by. I think the vacuum at the top will benefit Onosho, Mitakeumi, and the like if it benefits anyone. Maybe even Shoudai if he starts achieving his potential.

[Asashosakari 19,669]

Many thanks to Doitsuyama - the DB now has the full banzuke available.

[orandashoho 720]

Doitsuyama! You rock!!

14 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Many thanks to Doitsuyama - the DB now has the full banzuke available.

 

[Katooshu 3,335]

Hokutofuji, Onosho, Takakeisho, and Mitakeumi are all at least 5 years younger than Tochinoshin and Tochiozan and have shown promise in being able to regularly defeated Y and O (e.g. just in the last half of 2017 Hokutofuji earned 3 kinboshi, was 2-0 vs Takayasu, and beat Goeido). None of them seem persistently plagued by major injury yet. Shodai is good but I do wonder about his mentality. He has plenty of skills and a good body, but more than the others I've seen him look as if he just caved or didn't give it his all during a match.

Tamawashi is a bit different from Tochinoshin and Tochiozan because he's recently been stronger near the top of the banzuke than those two have, despite being the oldest of the group. From his age and late start as a sanyaku regular he may not seem like a typical ozeki contender, though from his recent performances, and assuming there's no marked resurgence of the Y and O, I suppose he's worth keeping an eye on.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Katooshu

[robnplunder 976]

Hokutofuji was very impressive in the last basho.  If he repeats his performance in this basho, who is to say he is not an Ozeki contender.  Shodai ... hmm ... he was keeping up with Mitakeumi for a few years but seems to be topping out at joi level.  He may occasionally claim a sanyuku spot but that's just about it.   I feel he needs to improve Tachi-hai before he becomes a serious contender for an Ozeki spot.

Edited January 3, 2018 by robnplunder

[Asashosakari 19,669]

Belatedly posting the list of the former sekitori on the banzuke for Hatsu basho...

As mentioned in the trivia thread, this is the first time ever that the first 10 rikishi in makushita all have sekitori experience.

Appearance anniversaries: It's been one year since Amuru's last sekitori basho, and three years since Sakigake's.

Birthdays: December saw Nionoumi turn 31, Sagatsukasa 36 and Daiseido 25. Terutsuyoshi celebrated his 23rd birthday today, and Dewahayate and Shotenro will be one year older on the last day of January (turning 29 and 36 respectively).

"Out" shows how many basho it has been since each rikishi's last sekitori appearance. Rikishi with their shikona in darker cells have makuuchi experience. Last basho's results here.

Rank	Shikona	Heya	Age	Out
Ms1e	Yago	Oguruma	23	1
Ms1w	Terutsuyoshi	Isegahama	23	1
Ms2e	Asabenkei	Takasago	28	8
Ms2w	Shimanoumi	Kise	28	9
Ms3e	Kitataiki	Yamahibiki	35	3
Ms3w	Tobizaru	Oitekaze	25	3
Ms4e	Kitaharima	Yamahibiki	31	2
Ms4w	Akiseyama	Kise	32	10
Ms5e	Toyonoshima	Tokitsukaze	34	8
Ms5w	Jokoryu	Kise	29	10
Ms7w	Daiseido	Kise	25	1
Ms9w	Chiyootori	Kokonoe	25	1
Ms13w	Dewahayate	Dewanoumi	28	9
Ms14e	Tenkaiho	Onoe	33	10
Ms14w	Kagamio	Kagamiyama	29	10
Ms15w	Asahisho	Tomozuna	28	4
Ms16e	Chiyoarashi	Kokonoe	26	27
Ms18w	Amuru	Onomatsu	34	6
Ms20w	Satoyama	Onoe	36	3
Ms23e	Sagatsukasa	Irumagawa	36	23
Ms25w	Takaryu	Kise	25	15
Ms26w	Fujiazuma	Tamanoi	30	5
Ms28w	Tokushinho	Kise	33	13
Ms29e	Oiwato	Hakkaku	36	25
Ms32e	Higonojo	Kise	33	22
Ms35e	Nionoumi	Yamahibiki	31	27
Ms38e	Kotomisen	Sadogatake	34	25
Ms44e	Keitenkai	Onomatsu	27	32
Ms47w	Sakigake	Shibatayama	31	18
Sd16w	Kaonishiki	Azumazeki	39	38
Sd19e	Hitenryu	Tatsunami	33	38
Sd31w	Sotairyu	Tokitsukaze	35	17
Sd45w	Masunoyama	Chiganoura	27	17
Sd53e	Dairaido	Takadagawa	37	68
Sd72w	Yoshiazuma	Tamanoi	40	20
Sd81w	Shotenro	Fujishima	35	11
Jd20w	Masakaze	Oguruma	34	31

 

Edited January 17, 2018 by Asashosakari