Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

11 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

If they promote both Takayasu and Aonishiki to sekiwake

Hell will freeze over if this happens.

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

10 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Absolutely nobody else from Juryo could be promoted then. A 9-6 from M6 was deemed unviable. Or inviable.. This time, we have seven viables. Fluke. I could show you the cases in which the bottomest ranked 7-8 guy WAS demoted to make my point, but I don't have enough monitor space.

We shall see.

I have shown you an unprecedented non-demotion; there would be nothing unusual about Shishi's 7-8 non-demotion.

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

10 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

I don't see any way we don't have an eight-man sanyaku, so I guess I'm in the minority with that as well?

Yes, you are. 

[Fashiritētā 213]

I think were looking at a 7 man Sanyaku, thus helping Kotoeiho and Shishi stay at the bottom of Makuuchi , but i am horrible at GTB, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Reonito 1,783]

BTW there have been several promotions from J6 with 9-6, and even one from J7 (since 2012, so excluding the scandal exceptions). Not all of those demotions were any more forced than Nishikifuji's should have been. 8-7 from J5 has also been enough. It used to be not that long ago that if your record was deemed clearly slated for demotion, they pulled up the next best guy from juryo, regardless of how far away from promotion they'd normally be. Now they seem to do it the other way around.

[Wakawakawaka 217]

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I have shown you an unprecedented non-demotion; there would be nothing unusual about Shishi's 7-8 non-demotion.

Maybe I misinterpret... but isn't the thought behind Shishi not staying at M17w not a matter of absolute rank, but of ordinal rank, meaning has anyone ever gone from last rikishi in Makuuchi to not last with a MK. In that consideration, Haru 2025 might be an appropriate comparison. Tokihayate 7-8, M17w (last spot) > M18e. Shirokuma 9-6 J4e > M17w.

Edited August 5 by Wakawakawaka

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

3 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Maybe I misinterpret... but isn't the thought behind Shishi not staying at M17w not a matter of absolute rank, but of ordinal rank, meaning has anyone ever gone from last rikishi in Makuuchi to not last with a MK. In that consideration, Haru 2025 might be an appropriate comparison. Tokihayate 7-8, M17w (last spot) > M18e. Shirokuma 9-6 J4e > M17w.

If ordinal rank is so important, would it mean that Shishi's rank disappearing (if he was 42nd and sanyaku got bigger) could result in his absolute rank actually moving up?

[Kintamayama 47,232]

8 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Yes, you are. 

Excellent.

[Akinomaki 41,818]

8 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

20 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

If they promote both Takayasu and Aonishiki to sekiwake

Hell will freeze over if this happens.

I'd like that, therefore I'll base my guess on it

[Reonito 1,783]

13 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Maybe I misinterpret... but isn't the thought behind Shishi not staying at M17w not a matter of absolute rank, but of ordinal rank, meaning has anyone ever gone from last rikishi in Makuuchi to not last with a MK. In that consideration, Haru 2025 might be an appropriate comparison. Tokihayate 7-8, M17w (last spot) > M18e. Shirokuma 9-6 J4e > M17w.

I can't find a counterexample since 2000. Unfortunately even with the recent improvements, the db doesn't allow searches like "last rank."

[Wakawakawaka 217]

11 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

If ordinal rank is so important, would it mean that Shishi's rank disappearing (if he was 42nd and sanyaku got bigger) could result in his absolute rank actually moving up?

No, I doubt that would happen. If you are MK and your rank disappears so you do. I don't think ordinal rank has any importance, except... perhaps... the last spot in Makuuchi.

[Reonito 1,783]

There's definitely been discussion of ordinal rank for 7-8 (and other) records in the middle of the banzuke. E.g., you went 7-8 at M7e and the sanyaku shrank. By the usual criteria, you really ought to hold absolute rank, but that would mean a promotion in ordinal rank. Do you get pushed down even though it means ranking someone M7e who deserves to be a lot lower? I can't remember if there are any clear patterns when the sanyaku size changes, and it's not easy to query for without a lot of post-processing.

[Wakawakawaka 217]

The last time sanyaku shrank was Haru 2025, Midorifuji M11e and Onokatsu M12w held absolute with a 7-8, thus moving up 1 ordinal position. Nishikifuji M17e 9-6, went behind Onokatsu. If avoiding ordinal promotion off a MK was a priority in general, I think they could have pushed Nishikifuji ahead, he only computed a 1/2 rank lower than Onokatsu.

[yorikiried by fate 2,038]

Four Sekiwake and three Komusubi. You read it here first!

[which might be a lie, as I didn't read the thread...]

[Reonito 1,783]

3 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

Four Sekiwake and three Komusubi. You read it here first!

Okay, I'll bite: who's the third komusubi in this scenario?

[Kishinoyama 625]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Okay, I'll bite: who's the third komusubi in this scenario?

Shimanoumi 

[yorikiried by fate 2,038]

On 10/08/2025 at 00:48, Reonito said:

Okay, I'll bite: who's the third komusubi in this scenario?

Surprise guest rikishi on a wildcard.

[In all shame and honesty, I'm laughing tears here that I seemingly cannot count to seven...]

Edited August 11 by yorikiried by fate

[Jejima 1,495]

On 05/08/2025 at 18:36, Wakawakawaka said:

No, I doubt that would happen. If you are MK and your rank disappears so you do. I don't think ordinal rank has any importance, except... perhaps... the last spot in Makuuchi.

I recalled something from my early days of sumo watching, and after a little trial and error with Doitsu-reference,  I think I found what I was looking  for --> Check Tomohana's banzuke positions for July and September 1995.

[Reonito 1,783]

4 minutes ago, Jejima said:

I recalled something from my early days of sumo watching, and after a little trial and error with Doitsu-reference,  I think I found what I was looking  for --> Check Tomohana's banzuke positions for July and September 1995.

Very interesting; I guess things were different in the days of kosho. Also one of only a handful of times with zero juryo promotions.

[Gurowake 4,151]

59 minutes ago, Jejima said:

I recalled something from my early days of sumo watching, and after a little trial and error with Doitsu-reference,  I think I found what I was looking  for --> Check Tomohana's banzuke positions for July and September 1995.

Note that Higonoumi was also kosho and did NOT have his nominal rank changed.  Tomonohana went up in nominal rank because that was the only way to keep him in Makuuchi with a kosho.  Kosho is hardly the same as a 7-8.

[Gurowake 4,151]

52 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Very interesting; I guess things were different in the days of kosho. Also one of only a handful of times with zero juryo promotions.

Note how half of those are in the late nineties.  I'm pretty sure there was massive yaocho going on, as there's also other times when there were some swaps that there were still some rather bizarre-looking results that didn't look natural.  The system saved everyone they could, but most of the time there was at least one rikishi that just couldn't be saved.

[Reonito 1,783]

18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Note how half of those are in the late nineties.  I'm pretty sure there was massive yaocho going on, as there's also other times when there were some swaps that there were still some rather bizarre-looking results that didn't look natural.  The system saved everyone they could, but most of the time there was at least one rikishi that just couldn't be saved.

That one in particular was carnage in upper juryo, only one borderline promotion case with 9-6 at J3w, and everyone below M11 had winning records. But May 1997 had Chiyotaikai missing out with 9-6 at J1w.

[Koorifuu 1,120]

14 hours ago, Gurowake said:

The system saved everyone they could, but most of the time there was at least one rikishi that just couldn't be saved.

And those rikishi would regularly end up with double digit losses. They were already doomed so might as well lend a hand more often than not.