Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Akinomaki 41,571]

1 hour ago, Andreas21 said:

The article writer perhaps mistakenly assumed that Takayasu has 11:4.

No, the article points out that many komusubi with 10 or more wins were promoted to sekiwake and that it is expected, that Takayasu will become  the third sekiwake. For Aonishiki, his non-promotion and the miraculous non-demotion of Takayasu is mentioned with the point of interest as, who will this time get preference treatment. (like everybody else, they of course predicted promotion and demotion last time)

Edited July 30 by Akinomaki

[Gurowake 4,136]

2 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

many komusubi with 10 or more wins were promoted to sekiwake

The last time that a Komusubi with only 10 wins was given an extra Sekiwake slot was after Kyushu 1999; before that it was fairly common, but it looks to me like the decision was made in context with the rest of the banzuke, similar to Takayasu's Sekiwake promotion with 12 wins from M1 that was a clear departure from Daieisho's 13 win M1 promotion to only Komusubi.  That is, I noticed on multiple occasions they didn't give an extra slot when there was no good candidate for the now-open Komusubi slot.  After Kyushu 1999, they only promoted one of the 2 10-5 Komusubis, with the K2w not promoted, and it looks like it was done to promote an 8-7 M1w, while after Aki 1996 a 10-5 K2w *was* promoted, which made room for a 9-6 M1e.

Since then there have been six instances of Komusubi with 10 wins not being promoted.  They didn't give the extra slot after Aki 2007 when there was a M1w 8-7 that could easily have been promoted but wasn't, and after Kyushu 2004 similarly there was a 9-6 M3e not promoted.  Also since then there have also been 6 Komusubi with 11 wins who were given extra Sekiwake slots, and none that were not promoted to Sekiwake, even though after Hatsu 2014 Tochiozan's extra promotion required then promotion of a 9-6 M5e.  If they're looking at the fact that most Komusubi with 10 wins since then were given an open Sekiwake slot, or they are giving any weight to decisions made 25 or more years ago, I don't know what to say.  I don't want to say that they're wrong, since the Kyokai has made a lot of baffling decisions lately that go against what they would have done in the past and they can always change their mind, but the recent trends are very clear and it's strange to me that sports writers in Japan are worse at noticing this than foreign fans.

Edited July 30 by Gurowake

[Sumo Spiffy 646]

It keeps looking like people only think about whether these guys deserve to get bumped up further in a vacuum, with respect to their worthiness for such a promotion and nothing else. They keep forgetting there are knock-on effects.

• If Takayasu and Aonishiki are pushed to sekiwake so Tamawashi and Abi can be komusubi, Hakuoho goes to M1e with his 8-7, and Atami jumps from M10e to M1w with his 11-4. There's not a snowball's chance in hell they're doing this.
• If they just bump up Takayasu, it could go, say, Abi at M1e, then Hakuoho, Oho holding position at M2e, and Atami at M2w. This at least avoids moves I think the committee would view as drastically undeserved. But, as most of us forum nerds will recall, the only recent time they made relatively unorthodox promotions like this was when the top of the banzuke was an epic clusterfk, and this one isn't. So, it falls more into the category of they won't do it because it's unnecessary.

I know most of this conversation is focused on Takayasu, but I'm seeing so many people ask if Aonishiki can get promoted to sekiwake, or straight up saying he should. It's like, y'all want him fast-tracked to ozeki, as long as he can get the wins. The committee is not gonna be the least bit interested in that. It's not like they're incapable of fast-tracking guys; Aonishiki and Onosato both went 11-4 at M15 in their first makuuchi tournaments, but where Aonishiki landed about where he should have at M9e, Onosato got spiked from the expected M7 to M5w. Aonishiki is getting treated like "you'll get what you earn", and they're going to make him earn that sekiwake spot.

[Gurowake 4,136]

11 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Win for the hypothesis? 

It looks like the only reasonable interpretation at this point given how close the comparison is to last basho and how stupid it looks to demote a rikishi who won an exchange bout.  Sure, one can say they changed their mind, but given the reasonableness of the hypothesis and the fact that this is nearly exactly where the break would be, that seems like an unnecessary consideration.  We might say that in the case of ties they decide based on whether the rikishi has sekitori expeirence to explain last basho, though I don't know if that's actually consistent with the other case(s) where there was a tie.

[Bunbukuchagama 925]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's like, y'all want him fast-tracked to ozeki, as long as he can get the wins. The committee is not gonna be the least bit interested in that.

To the contrary: they seem to be VERY interested in "slow-tracking" him. He was supposed to be a Komusubi in Nagoya, and a Sekiwake in Aki (with his 11-4 record). As is, his Ozeki run will be over if he fails to get another 11-4 in Aki (because you need to be a Sekiwake the last basho of the run). And only Taiho managed a 4-basho 11+ winning streak starting in Maegashira in the modern era (and he started it way higher than Aonishiki). 

[Yamanashi 4,040]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It keeps looking like people only think about whether these guys deserve to get bumped up further in a vacuum, with respect to their worthiness for such a promotion and nothing else. They keep forgetting there are knock-on effects.

• If Takayasu and Aonishiki are pushed to sekiwake so Tamawashi and Abi can be komusubi, Hakuoho goes to M1e with his 8-7, and Atami jumps from M10e to M1w with his 11-4. There's not a snowball's chance in hell they're doing this.
• If they just bump up Takayasu, it could go, say, Abi at M1e, then Hakuoho, Oho holding position at M2e, and Atami at M2w. This at least avoids moves I think the committee would view as drastically undeserved. But, as most of us forum nerds will recall, the only recent time they made relatively unorthodox promotions like this was when the top of the banzuke was an epic clusterfk, and this one isn't. So, it falls more into the category of they won't do it because it's unnecessary.

I know most of this conversation is focused on Takayasu, but I'm seeing so many people ask if Aonishiki can get promoted to sekiwake, or straight up saying he should. It's like, y'all want him fast-tracked to ozeki, as long as he can get the wins. The committee is not gonna be the least bit interested in that. It's not like they're incapable of fast-tracking guys; Aonishiki and Onosato both went 11-4 at M15 in their first makuuchi tournaments, but where Aonishiki landed about where he should have at M9e, Onosato got spiked from the expected M7 to M5w. Aonishiki is getting treated like "you'll get what you earn", and they're going to make him earn that sekiwake spot.

The solution is easy: Takayasu gets bumped up to K1e.  If anyone asks, they can say, "Well, we underdemoted him last time, so if he were really at M2, then this is a reasonable boost.  Aonishiki should have bee the K1w, so of course he gets promoted to Sekiwake.  We get tired of explaining such obvious things to the public!"

[Yarimotsu 628]

3 hours ago, Gurowake said:

how stupid it looks to demote a rikishi who won an exchange bout

I have been thinking for a while that perhaps the "exchange bout" terminology which we use does some heavy connotational lifting that it isn't really supposed to. If you just see it as "these rikishi are 'closest' to the border and we want to / need to have a match that crosses the border" I think that has a slightly different feel. Maybe I'm wrong and there are worse records in lower Juryo that regularly get passed over for selection in these bouts? I think you can generally say "put someone doing bad in Juryo against someone doing well below because this is a somewhat fair match" just as easily as you can say "see which of these rikishi deserves the spot in the higher division" and have vastly different connotations to the exact same bout.

[Bunbukuchagama 925]

2 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

I have been thinking for a while that perhaps the "exchange bout" terminology which we use does some heavy connotational lifting that it isn't really supposed to

There is no such thing as "exchange bout". NSK just likes to add spice to the end of the basho by pairing rikishi that have a lot to win or lose.

[Asashosakari 20,134]

44 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said:

I have been thinking for a while that perhaps the "exchange bout" terminology which we use does some heavy connotational lifting that it isn't really supposed to. If you just see it as "these rikishi are 'closest' to the border and we want to / need to have a match that crosses the border" I think that has a slightly different feel. Maybe I'm wrong and there are worse records in lower Juryo that regularly get passed over for selection in these bouts? I think you can generally say "put someone doing bad in Juryo against someone doing well below because this is a somewhat fair match" just as easily as you can say "see which of these rikishi deserves the spot in the higher division" and have vastly different connotations to the exact same bout.

I agree, and consequently I don't really understand this persistent talk of an alleged "disconnect" between the match-making and the banzuke-making that has been a staple feature of these threads for the last year or so. It is much more likely that the "exchange bout" assumption is simply false, and that they made the Daiamami - Kitanowaka match merely because it paired up two rikishi who each had a strong individual incentive to win. No other considerations are necessary to explain it, just like nothing else is necessary to explain why, say, Oshoumi and Shiden were made to fight despite their respective tournament goals (promotion and non-demotion) having absolutely nothing to do with each other. There's no disconnect because no connection was ever intended in the first place.

Edited July 30 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,748]

The only thing I'd add is that when there is a clear choice between a juryo guy and a makushita guy for who gets the last spot in juryo based on the results of their final bouts, they do seem to pit them head-to-head when possible, as opposed to giving each some other opponents with an independent strong incentive to win.

[Sumo Spiffy 646]

20 hours ago, Reonito said:

The only thing I'd add is that when there is a clear choice between a juryo guy and a makushita guy for who gets the last spot in juryo based on the results of their final bouts, they do seem to pit them head-to-head when possible, as opposed to giving each some other opponents with an independent strong incentive to win.

In other words, an exchange bout.

We should probably not view certain cross-divisional matches as exchange bouts as reflexively as we sometimes do, but it would also be incorrect to throw out the term. It clearly does happen.

[Reonito 1,748]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

In other words, an exchange bout.

We should probably not view certain cross-divisional matches as exchange bouts as reflexively as we sometimes do, but it would also be incorrect to throw out the term. It clearly does happen.

Exactly—we should probably restrict it to cases where it's pretty clear that if the juryo guy wins, he stays, and if not, he drops and is replaced by his opponent. Daiamami v Kitanowaka is a good example of a bout that looked like an exchange bout, but didn't fully meet those criteria—it was only an "exchange bout" in the sense that it would have worked that way if Kitanowaka won.

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Maybe we should have a name for a "not quite exchange match";

Elimination match

Loser leaves town match

Semi-exchange match

Survival match

Win-and-you're-in match

Last chance saloon match

Safety dance match

Revolving door match

 

[Fashiritētā 209]

Elevator Match

Hair vs Hair Match

[Jakusotsu 6,321]

get off my lawn match

[Bunbukuchagama 925]

1 hour ago, Jakusotsu said:

get off my lawn match

"Pull the ladder" bout.

[Fashiritētā 209]

First Blood Match

3 Round Scottish Match-Between rounds each wrestler takes a shot of whiskey with a beer chaser(ICW)

[Benihana 1,959]

I'd love a cage match

[Reonito 1,748]

Two men enter, one man leaves.

[Bunbukuchagama 925]

6 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

3 Round Scottish Match-Between rounds each wrestler takes a shot of whiskey with a beer chaser(ICW)

Nishikigi would be unstoppable. 

[Tetsuarashi 6]

On 31/07/2025 at 16:18, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maybe we should have a name for a "not quite exchange match";

Elimination match

Loser leaves town match

Semi-exchange match

Survival match

Win-and-you're-in match

Last chance saloon match

Safety dance match

Revolving door match

 

salary on a pole match

[Kintamayama 46,753]

On 27/07/2025 at 22:58, Akinomaki said:

NikkanSp in the predicted joi banzuke has Aonishiki to sekiwake and Tamawashi to komusubi. Kotoshoho only to m5.

o

My sanyaku exactly, for the record..Takayasu was given a lot of rope last time, but he needs to pay for that. Aonishiki is worthy. Can't hold his youth and inexperience against him forever. And he started from the bottom, unlike Oonosato, although that may not have to do with anything. Or maybe yes.. When push comes to shove, the numbers DO mean something. I have Kotoshouhou at 3E. 

But we shall see..

Edited August 2 by Kintamayama

[Reonito 1,748]

If they jump Aonishiki over Takayasu based on what they did last time, I guess we'll have to give up on the idea that banzuke-making is a Markov process.

[Bunbukuchagama 925]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

If they jump Aonishiki over Takayasu based on what they did last time, I guess we'll have to give up on the idea that banzuke-making is a Markov process.

Doing that would essentially amount to admitting they were REALLY wrong in Nagoya. I just don't see it happening. 

[Fashiritētā 209]

Moving to the bottom of the Banzuke, does 6-9 at M17E keep Kotoeiho in Makuuchi over ShiShi and his 7-8 at M17W.

The only way i see that happening is having a 7 man Sanyaku and M18E, or he gets Nishikigifuji luck and stays anyway.