Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Nagoya 2025

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Sorry that this is a bit late. The news of Daieisho's probable kyujo broke yesterday right as I was going to start up this thread, and I wanted to wait for it to become official before I left him off the ballot as per the rules. Good thing, too, because it turns out that we've lost another two rikishi to kyujo as well: Fujiizumi and Kotoegashira. Carnage the likes of which I don't recall happening before during the game's 16-year existence... That sadly leaves us with a ballot that's in very rough shape and now comprises only 8 of the originally expected 11 picks. Let's hope for many KK and a more playable Aki edition, I guess.

In addition the widely expected sanyaku promotion for Aonishiki did not materialize, and together with Daieisho's absence that means that ballot-leading Onosato will be the only sanyaku ranker in the game this time.

Anyway, the Nagoya ballot, such as it is:

1. Onosato        13* [score?]
2. Aonishiki      10*
3. Inami           8*
4. Kusano          7*
5. Hakuoho         6
6. Kazekeno        5
7. Mita            5*
8. Furuta          5*

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 8 guys up there and the further 4 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (all 'veterans'), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 12. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 7 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Onosato.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Onosato W-L
2. Aonishiki KKMK
3. Inami KKMK
4. Kusano KKMK
5. Hakuoho KKMK
6. Kazekeno KKMK
7. Mita KKMK
8. Furuta KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

[Masutarida 2]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno MK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta MK

TB 10

Edited July 11 by Masutarida

[Fashiritētā 210]

1. Onosato 13-2
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano MK
5. Hakuoho KK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta MK

TB 12

Edited July 11 by Fashiritētā

[Ryoshishokunin 332]

1. 11
2. mk
3. kk 
4. kk
5. mk
6. kk
7. mk
8. kk

 

TB 6

[Asashosakari 20,195]

4 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

3. Inami KKMK

@Fashiritētā Please clarify this selection.

[Masutarida 2]

9 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

@Fashiritētā Please clarify this selection.

7 wins 7 losses 1 rest

[Fashiritētā 210]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

@Fashiritētā Please clarify this selection.

Fixed

[Athenayama 1,190]

It's definitely the basho with the less possible selections since I've started to play this game.
Let's see if this is a good or a bad thing for me.

1. Onosato 13-2
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho KK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta MK

TB 7

[Yarimotsu 637]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita MK
8. Furuta MK

TB 6

[Oskanohana 357]

1. Onosato 11-4
2. Aonishiki MK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta KK 

TB 7

[Sakura 1,523]

1. Onosato 11-4
2. Aonishiki MK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho KK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita MK
8. Furuta MK

TB 6

[Jejima 1,486]

1. Onosato 8-7
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami KK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho KK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta KK

TB 8

[ryafuji 824]

1. Onosato 10-5
2. Aonishiki MK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita MK
8. Furuta KK

TB 8

[Profomisakari 909]

1. Onosato     13
2. Aonishiki    KK
3. Inami           KK
4. Kusano        KK
5. Hakuoho      KK
6. Kazekeno    KK
7. Mita              KK
8. Furuta           MK

   TB:            9

[Hakuryuho 335]

1. Onosato 13-2
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami KK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho KK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta KK

TB 8

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki MK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno MK
7. Mita MK
8. Furuta MK

TB 4

[Bunbukuchagama 958]

1. Onosato 10-5
2. Aonishiki KK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno MK
7. Mita KK
8. Furuta MK

TB 7

[Xiongmao 23]

1. Onosato 12-3
2. Aonishiki MK
3. Inami MK
4. Kusano KK
5. Hakuoho MK
6. Kazekeno KK
7. Mita MK
8. Furuta MK

TB 5

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Onosato            12
2. Aonishiki                 KK
3. Inami                       KK
4. Kusano                   KK
5. Hakuoho                        MK
6. Kazekeno               KK
7. Mita                        KK
8. Furuta                             MK

TB 7

[Asashosakari 20,195]

12 Onosato
+ Aonishiki
- Inami
+ Kusano
- Hakuoho
- Kazekeno
+ Mita
- Furuta

TB 6
 

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Time to finally round up this small edition of the game. The selection stats of - for the first time in five years - 16 players:

Player	Onosato		Aonishiki	Inami	Kusano	Hakuoho	Kazekeno	Mita	Furuta	TB	Cons
Masutarida	+	12-3	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	10	1.15
Ryoshishokunin	-	11-4	-	+	+	-	+	-	+	6	1.52
Fashiritētā	+	13-2	+	-	-	+	+	+	-	12	1.40
Athenayama	+	13-2	+	-	+	+	+	+	-	7	1.04
Yarimotsu	+	12-3	+	-	+	-	+	-	-	6	1.04
Oskanohana	-	11-4	-	-	+	-	+	+	+	7	1.30
Sakura	-	11-4	-	-	+	+	+	-	-	6	1.35
Jejima	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	8	1.44
ryafuji	-	10-5	-	-	+	-	+	-	+	8	1.40
Profomisakari	+	13-2	+	+	+	+	+	+	-	9	1.20
Hakuryuho	+	13-2	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	8	1.35
WAKATAKE	+	12-3	-	-	+	-	-	-	-	4	1.35
Bunbukuchagama	-	10-5	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	7	1.25
Pandaazuma	+	12-3	-	-	+	-	+	-	-	5	1.15
chishafuwaku	+	12-3	+	+	+	-	+	+	-	7	1.10
Asashosakari	+	12-3	+	-	+	-	-	+	-	6	1.15
	10:6		10:6	5:11	15:1	6:10	12:4	10:6	5:11
Results	- (KK)		+	-	+	+	-	+	-

At least all eight slots are/were in play, so we avoided even more of a shortening of the effective ballot.

Onosato with a 12-3 target once again, with basically the same level of support as in Nagoya (9:6 there).

With the short list of picks it's not much of a surprise that two entries ended up identically, namely those of Asashosakari and Masutarida - thankfully with very different TB picks though. The opposite end is occupied by two pairs of players with just one joint selection; Fashiritētā/Ryoshishokunin only share their Kazekeno expectation, Jejima/WAKATAKE have just near-unanimous Kusano in common. The average level of agreement amounts to 57% or about 4.6 slots.

The most common lineups were produced by Athenayama and Yarimotsu, both voting jointly with the majority on six slots and then having opposing views on Hakuoho (Yarimotsu on the long side) and Mita (Athenayama here). Asashosakari, chishafuwaku and Masutarida also have 7/8 majority choices on their entries, but with a slightly bigger anti-mainstream 8th slot than the leaders. The most uncommon ballot was entered by neither Fashiritētā nor WAKATAKE for a change, but rather is Ryoshishokunin's work this time. He leads all ballots with five picks against the respective majority votes.

Very little TB agreement despite the extremely small range of possible selections this time. Fashiritētā even went for the theoretical maximum of 12, WAKATAKE provided the low prediction of 4. In between, all numbers are covered except 11.

Edited September 11 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 10

It took a long time for anything LKS-countable to happen in the basho this time, but first blood was drawn in the shape of two still relatively early kachikoshi - high-grade prospects Aonishiki and Kusano successfully continue their ascent up the banzuke. Just over half the field correctly predicted both outcomes.

Unfortunately, our first off-ballot rikishi already became a makekoshi casualty; Chikuba won't be getting that qualifying fifth KK.

The first standings:

Day 10: 2/8 Decisions, TB 2-11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	2	6
1	Athenayama	2	7
1	Bunbukuchagama	2	7
1	chishafuwaku	2	7
1	Yarimotsu	2	6
6	Hakuryuho	2	8
6	Jejima	2	8
8	Profomisakari	2	9
9	Masutarida	2	10
10	Oskanohana	1	7
10	Ryoshishokunin	1	6
10	Sakura	1	6
13	Pandaazuma	1	5
13	ryafuji	1	8
15	WAKATAKE	1	4
16	Fashiritētā	1	12

 

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 11

Kachikoshi for shin-yokozuna Onosato, but getting to his 12-3 target from 8-3 was going to be an uphill battle. Eight wins were entirely sufficient for juryo rikishi Mita to count a successful LKS tournament, however, a result that a majority of us had expected.

We continue with eight players still tied for the lead.

Day 11: 3/8 Decisions, TB 4-11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Athenayama	3	7
1	Bunbukuchagama	3	7
1	chishafuwaku	3	7
1	Hakuryuho	3	8
1	Jejima	3	8
6	Asashosakari	3	6
6	Profomisakari	3	9
8	Masutarida	3	10
9	Oskanohana	2	7
10	Yarimotsu	2	6
11	Fashiritētā	2	12
12	ryafuji	1	8
13	Ryoshishokunin	1	6
13	Sakura	1	6
15	Pandaazuma	1	5
16	WAKATAKE	1	4

 

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Five slots remaining is usually the point at which I give a yusho race preview but...let's just say that 10 different players still have pathways to the victory (everyone on 3 points plus Oskanohana and Yarimotsu), so that's all a bit too complicated.

Day 12

Only off-ballot action on this day, with Gonoumi securing his spot on the Aki ballot and Mikazuchiyama falling short of it. Nevertheless, that eliminated Masutarida whose only yusho chance was to force a complete tie with Asashosakari in one particular outcome and then prevail via the earlier-entry tiebreak; it required the TB value to finish at 8 which is now no longer possible in that scenario.

Day 13

The day began with the final off-ballot result and unfortunately another failure - Chiyooga will also not get to join the next ballot, so only Gonoumi has made it among the four-strong contingent. No major changes to the yusho race here.

Next up it was time for Kazekeno to say goodbye to LKS; his KK streak ends at 5. Only a small number of entrants predicted this result correctly, including yusho contenders Asashosakari and Bunbukuchagama. All others lost the majority of their possible options, and for Oskanohana and Yarimotsu it was even the end of their hopes altogether. 7 candidates for the victory remain.

And lastly Day 13 also saw Onosato's fourth loss and thus the door closed down on his chances to reach a 12-3 record. That was a minority prediction altogether and also among the remaining yusho hopefuls - only Bunbukuchagama and Jejima had fewer than 12 wins on their entries.

Day 13: 5/8 Decisions, TB 5-8
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	5	7
2	Asashosakari	4	6
3	Jejima	4	8
4	Masutarida	4	10
5	Athenayama	3	7
5	chishafuwaku	3	7
5	Oskanohana	3	7
8	Hakuryuho	3	8
9	Profomisakari	3	9
10	Ryoshishokunin	2	6
10	Sakura	2	6
10	Yarimotsu	2	6
13	ryafuji	2	8
14	Fashiritētā	2	12
14	WAKATAKE	2	4
16	Pandaazuma	1	5

And in fact Bunbukuchagama and Jejima are the only contenders still standing after Onosato's loss; everybody else was reliant on that not happening. Bunbukuchagama is very firmly in the driver's seat: Jejima needs all three remaining results to go exactly right (KK for all of Inami, Hakuoho and Furuta), while Bunbukuchagama wins with anything else.

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 14

Spoiler: All three remaining rikishi decided their fates on this day. But it only took the first one to decide the LKS winner as Onosato stablemate Furuta fell to makekoshi (a largely predicted outcome), ensuring that the overall victory went to Bunbukuchagama! After two previous runner-up results, congrats to him on the first championship.

All that was left to see at this point was whether it would be an outright victory (the most likely outcome) or if other players might get to join him atop the final standings. Welp, the next result confirmed that as well when Inami's seemingly interminable streak of 4-3 scores finally broke - another mostly anticipated result, although I wonder how many of the players who picked him for MK had unsuccessfully done that in multiple previous tournaments already (yours truly was certainly one of them). Anyway, an outright yusho was assured now.

Finally, Hakuoho secured his continued presence on the LKS ballot by earning his seventh straight kachikoshi, capping off this edition of the game one day early.

The final standings:

Day 15: 8/8 Decisions, TB 6
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	7	7
2	Asashosakari	6	6
3	Athenayama	6	7
3	Masutarida	6	10
5	Sakura	5	6
6	Fashiritētā	5	12
6	Jejima	5	8
6	Profomisakari	5	9
9	Yarimotsu	4	6
10	chishafuwaku	4	7
10	Hakuryuho	4	8
10	Oskanohana	4	7
10	WAKATAKE	4	4
14	Pandaazuma	3	5
14	ryafuji	3	8
16	Ryoshishokunin	2	6

Asashosakari takes the jun-yusho courtesy of the only correct TB pick among the 6-point players. Sakura, Yarimotsu and Ryoshishokunin also pick up the bonus win for the right TB.

The new ballot for Aki 2025:

 1. Onosato        14*
 2. Aonishiki      11*
    Inami           8*
    Daieisho        7
 3. Kusano          8*
 4. Hakuoho         7
    Kazekeno        5
 5. Mita            6*
    Fujiizumi       5**
    Furuta          5*
    Kotoegashira    5
 6. Gonoumi         5
---
 7. Kirishima       4
 8. Fujinokawa      4
 9. Kyokukaiyu      4

Still sadly short even with the three early sekitori additions at the end. Aonishiki will join Onosato in the titled ranks, incoming Kirishima also provides a sanyaku presence.

Edited September 11 by Asashosakari