Nagoya Ozeki Promotion Tracking (Daiesho, Hosoryu, Wakmotoharu)

[robnplunder 974]

Nagoya offers a sure opportunity for not one, not two, but three Sanyuku rikishi for promotion to Ozeki rank.  Let's track their progress on this.  We can also track how the new Ozeki and Takakeisho are doing,

Takakeisho - Got out of Kadoban in the last basho with an 8-7 record.  Looked shaky in the process.

Kirishima - Shin Ozeki, looked good for the last 3 bashos

Daieisho - 22 wins in the last two bashos.  10 more wins for the promotion?

Hoshoryu - 21 wins in the last two bashos.  10 or 11 more wins needed?

Wakamotoharu - 21 wins in the last two bashos.  10 or 11 more wins needed?

 

(My personal favorite to make it is Daiesisho.  But really, all 3 of them can make it if they keep their current form.)

 

Edited June 29, 2023 by robnplunder

[Seregost 119]

I hope Wakamotoharu gets it. I have a soft spot for the guy. Daieisho has been looking good for years, and has already a yusho. Hoshoryu, well, he's a talent for sure, and he has been in the fandom talk for a while now. But the Onami guy has been always overshadowed by his younger brother and suddenly...Pop! He's the real deal. And if he achieves promotion with a great utchari in the end, even better :))

[Katooshu 3,079]

Promotions with 10 wins would be very very light for Hoshoryu and Wakamotoharu - 31 wins without even a jun-yusho. I think 12 is more likely needed for them. 

Edited June 29, 2023 by Katooshu

[Akinomaki 39,497]

To reach the regular 33, Daieisho needs 11, the other two 12 - and just after a promotion (with 34) they hardly will accept less - Kotoshogiku on his recent column gives these numbers as well https://www.tokyo-sports.co.jp/articles/-/267745

Edited June 29, 2023 by Akinomaki

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

I thought 33 wins was supposed to be the gold standard?

[robnplunder 974]

3 minutes ago, Seregost said:

I hope Wakamotoharu gets it. I have a soft spot for the guy. Daieisho has been looking good for years, and has already a yusho. Hoshoryu, well, he's a talent for sure, and he has been in the fandom talk for a while now. But the Onami guy has been always overshadowed by his younger brother and suddenly...Pop! He's the real deal. And if he achieves promotion with a great utchari in the end, even better :))

 

That reminds me.  Before the injury, I thought Wakatakage was a favorite to be the next Ozeki.  

If make it, Hoshoryu will be a solid Ozeki IMO.  He has the smarts and techniques to consistently turn in a Kachikoshi.

[robnplunder 974]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I thought 33 wins was supposed to be the gold standard?

Not edged in stone.  32 may do it if the winds blow in the right direction for the rikishi.  31 wins - not so much.  

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

4 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

If make it, Hoshoryu will be a solid Ozeki IMO.  He has the smarts and techniques to consistently turn in a Kachikoshi.

His floor is quite high, he is basically a KK machine at the moment. But his ceiling is still in doubt. 

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

2 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Not edged in stone.  32 may do it if the winds blow in the right direction for the rikishi.  31 wins - not so much.  

We already have 2 Ozeki, none of them kadoban, Teru seems to be healthy (by his standards) - I don't see why the winds should be favourable for a "soft" Ozeki promotion right now.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

49 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I thought 33 wins was supposed to be the gold standard?

It's not even a benchmark. 33 wins is just a ballpark estimate at best, since an ōzeki promotion is a lot more qualitative than quantitative than most fans realise.

To put it another way: if you're putting on the kind of sumo that will get you promoted, 33/3 is probably achievable. But if you're henkaing your way to 35/3, I don't think you'll be promoted.

[Wakawakawaka 135]

Kirishima - Hadn't looked particularly dominant during his Ozeki run, but he put together the numbers, I hope he continues to improve otherwise I'm not sure he'll 'dignify' the rank. 

Daieisho - January, March, and the first half of May he was on fire, but really cooled off the second half of May. If he can keep performing like he has the last 3 tournaments, he will get Ozeki and have emphatically earned it. With 10 wins at M1 in January, he probably has the strongest case for a 'soft' promotion of the 3 contenders, similar to Asanoyama's run.

Hoshoryu - I think he's trying too hard. Hopefully his uncle talked some sense into him during their face to face time since last basho. If he becomes calm and focused he's going to be Yokozuna before long.

Wakamotoharu - I'll jinx myself now and say no way is he getting 12 wins this tournament. He's solid but I don't see him making Ozeki ever.

[LeoD 17]

I think none of them will get the nod on 32 wins.

And none of them will be snubbed on 33.

[Tigerboy1966 1,372]

I will take Daiesho who, at 29 is in the "now or never" phase of the career and knows that this might be his last best chance. In comparison, Hoshoryu (unless something goes horribly wrong) has his peak years ahead of him, while WMH, although slightly older than Daiseisho, is a relative newcomer at the highest level.

[Reonito 1,295]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It's not even a benchmark. 33 wins is just a ballpark estimate at best, since an ōzeki promotion is a lot more qualitative than quantitative than most fans realise.

To put it another way: if you're putting on the kind of sumo that will get you promoted, 33/3 is probably achievable. But if you're henkaing your way to 35/3, I don't think you'll be promoted.

Since 1958, no one's ever missed with 35/3. There are only two misses with 34/3. It's a little iffier with 33/3 (5 misses in 20 occurrences). With 32/3, it's less than 50:50; 31/3 used to be a thing, but hasn't been since the mid-1980's.

[Yamanashi 3,671]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Since 1958, no one's ever missed with 35/3. There are only two misses with 34/3. It's a little iffier with 33/3 (5 misses in 20 occurrences). With 32/3, it's less than 50:50; 31/3 used to be a thing, but hasn't been since the mid-1980's.

I have heard many times that an Ozeki should be "in the hunt" for the Yusho every basho -- that's how you know he's an Ozeki.

Over the last 65 basho, the Yusho holder had the following number of wins: 15 (13), 14 (22), 13 (17), 12 (12), 11 (1), 10 (0).

I'll defer to the stats gurus as to the margin of error, but if you can't average 11 wins in 3 consecutive basho, you can't be an Ozeki according to the above criterion.

[Fashiritētā 154]

It’s nice and refreshing that we’ve gone from needing Ozeki’s ASAP, to three potential promotions to the rank and 1 fresh one. 
 

Can’t wait for the Basho

[Seiyashi 4,068]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It's not even a benchmark. 33 wins is just a ballpark estimate at best, since an ōzeki promotion is a lot more qualitative than quantitative than most fans realise.

To put it another way: if you're putting on the kind of sumo that will get you promoted, 33/3 is probably achievable. But if you're henkaing your way to 35/3, I don't think you'll be promoted.

Since 1958, no one's ever missed with 35/3. There are only two misses with 34/3. It's a little iffier with 33/3 (5 misses in 20 occurrences). With 32/3, it's less than 50:50; 31/3 used to be a thing, but hasn't been since the mid-1980's.

Yeah but the thought experiment is this: If someone scored >50% of wins with henka and hit 35 wins, would the NSK agree to promote him? Somehow, I highly doubt so. It's an extreme example, but it serves to tease out whether ōzeki promotion is purely a numbers game - which I think we agree it's not always.

3 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

I have heard many times that an Ozeki should be "in the hunt" for the Yusho every basho -- that's how you know he's an Ozeki.

Over the last 65 basho, the Yusho holder had the following number of wins: 15 (13), 14 (22), 13 (17), 12 (12), 11 (1), 10 (0).

I'll defer to the stats gurus as to the margin of error, but if you can't average 11 wins in 3 consecutive basho, you can't be an Ozeki according to the above criterion.

It's a slightly different metric, but even ōzeki who eventually hit yokozuna only achieved a yūshō honour (i.e. Y, D, J) about half the time on average during their tenure as ōzeki. Your average ōzeki who capped out at ōzeki only did it 10% of the time. I'm not sure that this expectation that they be in the yūshō hunt is anything more than an expectation, similar to the expectation that they be scoring better than 9-6s.

Of course, sekiwake who get promoted to ōzeki usually achieve a yūshō honour in at least one of their ōzeki run bashos because of the scores necessary, but that's slightly different from saying that we are testing for ōzeki potential by seeing if he should always be in the hunt.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

24 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah but the thought experiment is this: If someone scored >50% of wins with henka and hit 35 wins, would the NSK agree to promote him?

But what if he hit 40 wins? And won 3 yusho in a row?

Experiments work both ways, you know.

[Yamanashi 3,671]

11 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah but the thought experiment is this: If someone scored >50% of wins with henka and hit 35 wins, would the NSK agree to promote him? Somehow, I highly doubt so. It's an extreme example, but it serves to tease out whether ōzeki promotion is purely a numbers game - which I think we agree it's not always.

It's a slightly different metric, but even ōzeki who eventually hit yokozuna only achieved a yūshō honour (i.e. Y, D, J) about half the time on average during their tenure as ōzeki. Your average ōzeki who capped out at ōzeki only did it 10% of the time. I'm not sure that this expectation that they be in the yūshō hunt is anything more than an expectation, similar to the expectation that they be scoring better than 9-6s.

Of course, sekiwake who get promoted to ōzeki usually achieve a yūshō honour in at least one of their ōzeki run bashos because of the scores necessary, but that's slightly different from saying that we are testing for ōzeki potential by seeing if he should always be in the hunt.

"In the hunt" is, of course, subjective, and you'd better account for the fact that after day 10 you may be "in the hunt", but you're also ready for a spanking by the Y/O corps in the last few days.  Also, since you cannot reach Yokozuna except through the Ozeki rank, you need to show consistent double-digit wins to even get on the short list for promotion.

[#1HENKAFAN 40]

Put me on the Wakamotoharu train. I think one of them will probably make it this basho and while it's tempting to choose Hoshoryu after his training with uncle there's just something about Wakamotoharu that feels very special. His scores have been more consistently strong than Hoshoryu, Daieisho, and even Kirishima before got his Ozeki run. Daieisho and Hoshoryu have had better peaks than him but Hoshoryu still needs to work on his mentality issues and Daieisho's history of losing at the edge is worrying.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

40 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

But what if he hit 40 wins? And won 3 yusho in a row?

Experiments work both ways, you know.

I'd say he still gets denied the promotion. I don't see the NSK condoning a rikishi who wins at all costs. 

It would be a different story if a henka wasn't as controversial as it is. 

[Yamanashi 3,671]

53 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

But what if he hit 40 wins? And won 3 yusho in a row?

Experiments work both ways, you know.

So, you're saying (in this experiment) that a member of san'yaku wins 40 times in 3 basho with >20 wins by henka, and the question isn't "Won't everybody see the henka coming each bout?" or "How great must his sumo be that he henkas against opponents who are prepared for it and still averages 13 wins per basho with 3 Yusho?", but "Should he be elevated to the rank of Ozeki?"

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

20 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I'd say he still gets denied the promotion. I don't see the NSK condoning a rikishi who wins at all costs. 

It would be a different story if a henka wasn't as controversial as it is. 

This is pure speculation. You cannot state as a fact that a henka-reliant rikishi would be denied promotion with 35 wins - or 40, or any other number. If henka is a dealbreaker, it has to be outlawed; but we cannot pretend that ozeki promotion is entirely subjective and the manner in which wins are achieved can be an inpenetrable roadblock. 

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

36 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

So, you're saying (in this experiment) that a member of san'yaku wins 40 times in 3 basho with >20 wins by henka, and the question isn't "Won't everybody see the henka coming each bout?" or "How great must his sumo be that he henkas against opponents who are prepared for it and still averages 13 wins per basho with 3 Yusho?", but "Should he be elevated to the rank of Ozeki?"

All three questions can be relevant. In theory, henka is a weapon best used sparingly, it loses its sharpness if overused; but this is an ozeki promotion thread, so, it shouldn't be surprising to anyone that we went in this direction.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama

[Seiyashi 4,068]

The last thing I'll say on the topic is this: if Takakeishō could be denied promotion despite hitting 33, just because he looked terrible in his last bout against Gōeidō, I doubt a serial henka practitioner would get a pass regardless of his score.

It may not be purely subjective, but it's not purely objective in that 33/3 is a surefire promotion, either. I'd rather think that 33/3 as junior sanyaku is a necessary but insufficient condition for promotion, where it triggers the powers that be to look at the candidate's sumo and decide if he's worthy of promotion.