Nagoya 2022

[robnplunder 975]

2 minutes ago, Kujo said:

I think the "consideration" is because this never happened before and the MIB are fairly unpredictable when making a banzuke. I don't think he should be demoted, but ichinojo dropped a rank in the last banzuke because of covid (made no sense to me or my GTB).

Dropping a rank isn't the same as losing the Ozeki rank.  I surely hope Mitakumi keeps his rank (although he probably deserves to be demoted).  

[Hankegami 443]

4 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

My guess is, trying to dodge Abi's trademark nodowa and hoping to connect with him centre mass and up, leaving him pushing air and unbalanced. That said, it was a very Enhōesque move in appearance even if not in intent (Enhō would go for the head bury and belt grip).

Unfortunately, it just let Abi pull a Hokuseihō and reach over Takakeishō to grab him by the back of the belt. Takakeishō probably forgot that making yourself shorter when you're already vertically challenged isn't the brightest of ideas...

Once again, I wonder why Takakeisho is so adamant to not use a frontal belt grip. The whole world (included moto-Kitanofuji) suggested him to do so, but him zilch. This match was a textbook example of how a Takakeisho-esque character ends up again a tall guy by using only pushes and thrusts. Had he got the front belt they've ended up like Tochinoshin and Kotoeko yesterday. Instead he only gave Abi further rotation power by pushing him while he had his belt. I understand that Takakeisho shortie-arms cannot go full Enho and grab here and there, but he still got hands and could grab a damn mawashi.

[Kujo 116]

6 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Dropping a rank isn't the same as losing the Ozeki rank.  I surely hope Mitakumi keeps his rank (although he probably deserves to be demoted).  

I completely agree, but I wish the MIB would stick with a decision (if there even was one). It was my belief that before the previous basho it was stated that being out of a basho due to covid would not result in a demotion on the next banzuke.  

Edited July 16, 2022 by Kujo

[robnplunder 975]

2 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Once again, I wonder why Takakeisho is so adamant to not use a frontal belt grip. The whole world (included moto-Kitanofuji) suggested him to do so, but him zilch. This match was a textbook example of how a Takakeisho-esque character ends up again a tall guy by using only pushes and thrusts. Had he got the front belt they've ended up like Tochinoshin and Kotoeko yesterday. Instead he only gave Abi further rotation power by pushing him while he had his belt. I understand that Takakeisho shortie-arms cannot go full Enho and grab here and there, but he still got hands and could grab a damn mawashi.

One-trick pony comes to my mind.  But I see (could be my imagination) him trying different techniques albeit failing on most.  

[Seiyashi 4,072]

18 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

23 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Once again, I wonder why Takakeisho is so adamant to not use a frontal belt grip. The whole world (included moto-Kitanofuji) suggested him to do so, but him zilch. This match was a textbook example of how a Takakeisho-esque character ends up again a tall guy by using only pushes and thrusts. Had he got the front belt they've ended up like Tochinoshin and Kotoeko yesterday. Instead he only gave Abi further rotation power by pushing him while he had his belt. I understand that Takakeisho shortie-arms cannot go full Enho and grab here and there, but he still got hands and could grab a damn mawashi.

One-trick pony comes to my mind.  But I see (could be my imagination) him trying different techniques albeit failing on most.  

I don't think it's a likely answer, but it's also possible he's keeping a weapon like that in reserve until he's fully ready to a) win bouts with it by novelty and b) use that to make a sustained push for yokozuna. I doubt he thinks that tactically though, and more likely the answer is bull-headed pride in the weapons that's gotten him this far and the insistence to reach yokozuna doing his own sumo.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[robnplunder 975]

3 minutes ago, Kujo said:

I completely agree, but I wish the MIB would stick with a decision (if there even was one). It was my belief that before the previous basho it was stated that being out of a basho due to covid would not result in a demotion on the next banzuke.  

My wife says it is not fair for Mitakeumi to get demoted.  There, there.  Mitakeumi keeps his rank.  

[Amamaniac 2,079]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

NHK reported the top shimpan said they'll discuss and decide this after the basho. No precedent, but the old koushou system never gave a rank protection after a bout had happened, the Corona koushou so far followed the old proceedings.

I realise that it would be completely dishonourable, but ...

Mitakeumi knew he probably would not be able to escape demotion being kadoban in this tournament.  His best strategy would have been to (try and) get Covid just before the tournament started so that he could recover from his injury more while not being immediately demoted.

Happy to see that he didn't opt for my horrible advice, albeit belated!  Shame on me. 

[robnplunder 975]

Seriously, would there be more COVID kyujos before the basho is over?   The latest variant seems to spread like there is no tomorrow (or the next basho).  

[Hankegami 443]

Looming COVID threats aside, let's talk about Day 7 as usual.

Ichinojo having lost his bout could have a domino effect for him. Tomorrow is against 5-2 runner-up enfant terrible Kotonowaka (1-3). It's one of the very few bouts he enters with a losing record. Kotonowaka has an actual chance - and a good one on top of that - to catch him up with a win. Not to mention the entire plethora of 5-2 runner-ups. Terunofuji is just there, he only has to dispatch Wakamotoharu tomorrow (1-0 precedent in Juryo Haru 2020) and can join them on the top. Going down, Tobizaru will face Kotoeko (4-3) but he is going to face a though match. Nishikigi is vs. Kotoshoho (2-5) and could well lose his match. Midorifuji is against none else than Tochinoshin (2-0) and could effectively join the party. Ichiyamamoto is vs. Tsurugisho (4-0) and could join as well. Last, Nishikifuji is vs. Chiyoshoma (0-1) and could be henka'd out of the top. However, in the everyone-wins scenario, we could enter Day 9 with eight co-leaders.

About the other san'yaku, Tamawashi vs. Shodai is going to be a "No one expects the Spanish Inquisition" bout. Will the Old Fox outsmart the Ozeki, or Lord Shodai sacrifice yet another strong opponent to his commitment to keep his rank? Another exciting bout will be the Sekiwake bout Wakatakakage vs. Daieisho (4-4). Their record is an actual ping-pong match, so no outcome is foreseeable (well, outside from a 50% chance for them both). A last interesting bout will be Hoshoryu vs. Kiribayama (3-4).

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Shodai ruins history. Had Ichinojo won, he’d have gone 7-0 against a Komusubi, two Sekiwake, three Ozeki and a Yokozuna. While not an easy thing to query, I’m pretty sure that would have been the strongest ever opening week by a Maegashira. Daieisho did similar but he didn’t face a Yokozuna, only a second Komusubi. Most Maegashira who have started 7-0 were at ranks where they were unlikely to have faced many if any sanyaku, so I feel confident saying Ichi would have surpassed them all. But then Shodai happened …

Edited July 16, 2022 by Eikokurai

[RabidJohn 1,734]

Textbook HNH by Midorifuji today.

Maybe I'm too suspicious, but that's an awfully convenient Covid-kyujo for Mitakeumi. I felt the same about Hakuho's last one, too...

Wtf was Takakeisho thinking of with that weird non-tachi-ai?

[Taliesin 68]

But not demoting Mitakeumi creates a precedent that can bring trouble in the future. Yes, Mitakeumi is 2-4 this time, but what if it's someone with 0-6 instead? What about 0-12? Let's not forget that it's a whole stable (not a small one) and it would make sense to treat them uniformly.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 minute ago, Taliesin said:

But not demoting Mitakeumi creates a precedent that can bring trouble in the future. Yes, Mitakeumi is 2-4 this time, but what if it's someone with 0-6 instead? What about 0-12? Let's not forget that it's a whole stable (not a small one) and it would make sense to treat them uniformly.

0-12 is clear cut: demotion. They’ve already got their makekoshi. Makekoshi is ‘achieved’ the day it happens, not when the basho ends and the final record known.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

5 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

8 minutes ago, Taliesin said:

But not demoting Mitakeumi creates a precedent that can bring trouble in the future. Yes, Mitakeumi is 2-4 this time, but what if it's someone with 0-6 instead? What about 0-12? Let's not forget that it's a whole stable (not a small one) and it would make sense to treat them uniformly.

0-12 is clear cut: demotion. They’ve already got their makekoshi. Makekoshi is ‘achieved’ the day it happens, not when the basho ends and the final record known.

See Shōdai's last kadoban escape (or also Takakeishō's after a 0-4). Equally unfair to predict future performance from past trends.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Taliesin 68]

2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

0-12 is clear cut: demotion. They’ve already got their makekoshi. Makekoshi is ‘achieved’ the day it happens, not when the basho ends and the final record known.

But only for ozeki it is as simple as demotion - not demotion. Do you freeze ranks of everyone in the heya? Do you freeze ranks of everyone, who is yet to get "confirmed" MK? Treat 0-7 and 7-0 equally? 

[Seiyashi 4,072]

6 minutes ago, Taliesin said:

But only for ozeki it is as simple as demotion - not demotion. Do you freeze ranks of everyone in the heya? Do you freeze ranks of everyone, who is yet to get "confirmed" MK? Treat 0-7 and 7-0 equally? 

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202207&heya=9&shusshin=-1

Don't make the cake you don't have to. Everyone has yet to reach a determinative result, so it's easy to just kōshō everyone this time, which is what I believe they'll eventually do.

What happens in the future if they detect a case later in the basho when KK/MK has been decided for some rikishi, well, let's pray that never happens. It'll be a hard decision for sure.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Thorbjarn 214]

I think I have this Sumo thing figured out, suddenly a wild Shodai appears. I hope Mitakeumi won't get demoted, he's had some really bad luck, and now Covid on top. There were some good bouts imo, but the results distract from those. 

[Taliesin 68]

Tsk-tsk. What a good timing. First KKs and MKs in lower divisions start to appear exactly on day 7. I just don't see them making it a rule that "If it's before nakabi it's everyone Kosho, if it's after, everyone goes to hell'.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

8 minutes ago, Taliesin said:

I just don't see them making it a rule that "If it's before nakabi it's everyone Kosho, if it's after, everyone goes to hell'.

No, but that's exactly the point: they haven't made a rule. They've only ever promised to deal with it on a case by case basis to be fair to both the affected rikishi and others around them, without actually outright promising certain direct rules like "your rank will freeze". Sure, that has happened most of the time, but there have been enough counterexamples that show they're not willing to commit themselves to a hard precedent.

The big question really is whether they consider dropping Mitakeumi to a 10-win ozekiwake as a major change in status, as opposed to e.g. Ichinojō's one-rank drop in a zone that would still otherwise be counted for ōzeki promotions or just nudging jūryō wrestlers by a couple of ranks. I think the lack of any MKs in Dewanoumi (there are 2-2s and 1-3s but no one has gone MK or KK yet) is going to make this an easy decision to just mulligan this basho for the whole heya.

You're right, any actual MK/KKs makes the decision infinitely harder, but my point is that since they don't need to deal with that case and they're not laying down a rule to bind themselves in the future, they don't need to make this current decision under the constraint that their solution also has to work when someone has actually gotten a KK/MK. It appears sloppy from a systemic perspective, but in the context of their layered defences against COVID, makes sense when you consider the risk of something like this happening later into a basho isn't actually all that high.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Taliesin 68]

Maybe it's right. But I don't think something that big should be decided "case by case". 1 positive test (which may or may not turn into negative 2 days from now) and 24-33 Dewanoumi-beya, 2-4 injured kadoban ozeki included, gets kosho. Who knows what's next? If they are absolutely adamant on that the virus can't be contained any other way, imo demoting everyone is the only way that doesn't break the system too badly.

[Seiyashi 4,072]

1 hour ago, Taliesin said:

Maybe it's right. But I don't think something that big should be decided "case by case". 1 positive test (which may or may not turn into negative 2 days from now) and 24-33 Dewanoumi-beya, 2-4 injured kadoban ozeki included, gets kosho. Who knows what's next? If they are absolutely adamant on that the virus can't be contained any other way, imo demoting everyone is the only way that doesn't break the system too badly.

Even the golden rule of the banzuke that you don't go up for an MK has been broken before, due to mass retirements from the yaocho scandal (and the Shinjuen(?) incident way before that). And you're right that demotions may well result, just not to the usual degree which a normal kyūjō might warrant. But an injured Mitakeumi getting a reprieve wouldn't be any less unfair than e.g. Hakuhō getting off lighter than Kakuryū for a COVID absence in January last year.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

One tricky thing about this is that Covid isn’t going anywhere, so is the Kyokai committing to this Zero Covid policy forever or does there come a point where they treat it like getting any other illness? China is asking this question a lot right now. Sumo is a microcosm of the same problem. Will we still have Covid-enforced kyujo in 2025?

Edited July 16, 2022 by Eikokurai

[Seiyashi 4,072]

13 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

One tricky thing about this is that Covid isn’t going anywhere, so is the Kyokai committing to this Zero Covid policy forever or does there come a point where they treat it like getting any other illness? China is asking this question a lot right now. Sumo is a microcosm of the same problem. Will we still have Covid-enforced kyujo in 2025?

I don't think they're going to go against the government on this, and Japan is still very conservative when it comes to that. We'd thought that the opening up to foreign tourists in June was a bellwether, but then it doesn't seem to be going anywhere in a hurry.

[Tochinofuji 378]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

To be fair, ex tate yobidashi Hideo in his book also says it's dangerous, although I have no idea if he was just toeing the official line. So I don't know if it's the NSK trying to forestall lawsuits or actually trying, out of Japanese consideration, to prevent a tradition gotten out of hand. 

That being said, in law there is a concept of volenti non fit injuria - loosely he who volunteers cannot be injured - so arguably if you knew there was a risk of injury from attending the event you cannot later turn around and say you were injured from precisely the same risk. I don't know if it applies in Japan, but it certainly sounds like it would in yours, if rowdy rabble rousing hooch hurling hooligans are in regular attendance at concerts :) 

While jumping back to an aside, some Commonwealth jurisdictions have moved away from the doctrine of volenti. In Canada at least, those issues are now generally dealt with by a finding of contributory negligence, which allows for an apportionment of liability (saying, for example, you're 50% at fault for your own misfortune and so carving the damages in half). Volenti on the other hand is a complete defence. 

[Bakayokozuna 52]

Congrats to Kinbozan for his promotion to come ! I think he can do very well up in juryo. Kanno and Roga, both makushita2 with a 3-1 record are not far!

No takayasu, no more Mitakeumi, no more Takanosho. I know the later 2 were not doing great but still, having so many absences at the top is a shame. This basho feel as weird as the last one, but i do like this ichinojo run for yusho