Promotion/Demotion/Yusho Discussion Aki 2020

[Sakura 1,498]

Day 10 (results,text-only results )
 

8-2 Ow, Takakeisho, Se Shodai, M8w Wakatakakage, M9w Onosho, M14e Tobizaru

7-3 Oe Asanoyama, M1e Terunofuji 

6-4 Sw Mitakeumi, M1w Takanosho, M5e Kiribayama, M5w Takarafuji, M6e Takayasu, M6w Kagayaki, M7w Aoiyama, M12e Kotoshoho

Results from day 10

It's not usual that a bout between a pair of M1s has a big impact on a basho, but that is what may have just have happened. Going into the day, Terunofuji had the inside track to the yusho. He was a co-leader and had fought everyone above him. Every other co-leader still had to face higher ranked opponents (I'm assuming in the case of Maegashira). He was bested by Takanosho however and now the yusho is out of his hands having already fought co-leaders Takakeisho (Takanosho's stablemate - Takakeisho beat Daieisho) and Shodai (who beat Terutsuyoshi). He was the only co-leader to lose. Tobizaru beat MK trending Ryuden wheras Wakatakakage and Onosho beat off former pursuers Kotoshoho and Takayasu respectively.

The one-behind group shrank considerably because of that with only Asanoyama `winning' against fellow one-behind member Kiribayama. He got a fusen-sho, his second of the tournament; both times against an opponent who got injured in a bout with Takakeisho.

Since the Yokozuna run talk has started - I agree with @Reonito. Takakeisho has the better chance, given that he actually is in the lead. I don't expect either of them to be promoted after this basho. 

Day 11 match-ups

With such a reduced Sanyaku, we've been restricted to one intra-Sanyaku matchup every day. The last such day should be Day 11 with Asanoyama-Okinoumi. That may change if they have to break up the Ozeki-Sekiwake matchups.

Takakeisho and Shodai take on two-behind Takarafuji and Takayasu respectively. Wakatakakage has Chiyotairyu and Terunofuji faces Myogiryu. We're guaranteed one 9-win rikishi as Onosho and Tobizaru face off against each other.

Sanyaku

Shodai has a least secured his Sekiwak slot. Can he go any higher? Mitakeumi picked up win six, but wants at least four more. Daieisho on the other hand is just one loss away from vacating the Sekiwake rank. Okinoumi and Endo also lost and so we could be seeing a lot of turnover unless some five-day winning streaks occur.

Terunofuji still is in the best position for an open slot followed by Takanosho and Tamawashi who are making good cases at the moment. 

	0-0-10	Hakuho	Y	Kakuryu	0-0-10
	7-3	Asanoyama	O	Takakeisho	8-2
	8-2	Shodai	S	Mitakeumi	6-4
	3-7	Daieisho	S
	3-7	Okinoumi	K	Endo	3-7
	7-3	Terunofuji	M1	Takanosho	6-4
	3-7	Hokutofuji	M2	Tamawashi	6-4
	4-6	Myogiryu	M3	Terutsuyoshi	3-7
			M4	Tochinoshin	4-6
	6-4	Kiribayama	M5	Takarafuji	6-4
	6-4	Takayasu	M6	Kagayaki	6-4
			M7	Aoiyama	6-4
			M8	Wakatakakage	8-2
			M9	Onosho	8-2
			M10
			M11
(x)	6-4	Kotoshoho	M12
			M13
	8-2	Tobizaru	M14

Makuuchi-Juryo

I misread Yutakayama's rank and had him as a potential demotion danger, whereas he seems to be perfectly safe. Tokushoryu got his one win and ought to be safe barring any M17 disappearance. Elsewhere in the demotion zone, Ishiura beat Kotoshogiku and Shohozan beat Enho in the two battles of the endangered rikishi. Hoshoryu was the only other winner down here. 

With Kyokutaisei not appearing on the Day 11 torikumi I've marked him down with an (x). Based on form and W-L records it could be a struggle for everyone down there aside from Meisei to get the required wins. This includes Ichinojo who has looked like he wants to return to Juryo these last two days.

On the promotion side Kotonowaka now has a KK and given the demotion picture and the lack of good candidates he's probably a safe bet to go up. He only needs one more win for a proper promotion record. Kotoyuki remains the only other decent candidate at the moment, though there were wins for Chiyonokuni, Akiseyama and Wakamotoharu. Given the situation I have a number of rikishi listed as (~) who could end up with some extremely lucky promotions.
                        

 

(o)	2-6-2	Yutakayama	M4
			...
(~)	3-7	Tokushoryu	M8
(2)	2-8	Enho	M9
			M10
			M11	Kotoshogiku	2-5-3	(3)
			M12	Kaisei	4-6	(2)
(1)	5-5	Meisei	M13	Ishiura	2-1-7	(4)
			M14	Abi	0-0-9	(x)
(3)	4-6	Shimanoumi	M15	Shohozan	2-8	(5)
(x)	2-3-5	Kyokutaisei	M16	Hoshoryu	5-5	(3)
(3)	5-5	Ichinojo	M17
(x)	2-8	Ikioi	J1	Nishikigi	4-6	(4)
(2)	7-3	Kotoyuki	J2	Kotonowaka	8-2	(1)
(4)	5-5	Wakamotoharu	J3	Chiyomaru	4-6	(5)
(5)	5-5	Chiyoshoma	J4	Daiamami	3-7	(~)
(~)	3-7	Daishomaru	J5	Kyokushuho	4-6	(~)
(~)	5-5	Chiyonoo	J6	Akua	6-4	(5)
(5)	6-4	Churanoumi	J7
			J8
			J9
(5)	8-2	Akiseyama	J10
			J11	Chiyonokuni	9-1	(4)

Juryo-Makushita

Down in the demotion zone Kitaharima had a fortunate hansoku win against fellow demotion contender Tsurugisho. He still needs four more wins though to be safe. Tsurugisho still just needs one and is joined in this situation by Mitoryu and Hakuyozan. shin-Juryo Nishikifuji picked up his 7th win and is now safe.

No action on the Makushita side of things, but on Day 11 Takagenji gets pulled up to face Nishikifuji, and we have intra-joi matchups between Jokoryu & Kaisho, Chiyonoumi & Sakigake and Naya & Kotodaigo. Ura faces off against Tochiseiryu.

 

			J7	Azumaryu	0-0-10	(????)
(1)	4-6	Mitoryu	J8	Tsurugisho	4-6	(1)
			J9
			J10
(1)	5-5	Hakuyozan	J11
intai		Kizakiumi	J12	Daishoho	4-6	(3)
(x)	0-10	Oki	J13	Nishikifuji	7-3	(o)
(????)	0-0-9	Fujiazuma	J14	Kitaharima	4-6	(4)
	2-3	Takagenji	Ms1	Jokoryu	2-3
	3-2	Chiyonoumi	Ms2
	2-3	Kaisho	Ms3	Sakigake	3-2
			Ms4	Naya	3-2
	3-2	Kotodaigo	Ms5	Ura	5-0

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
Explanation of symbols used:

o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck

EDIT: Due to interruptions, this post took me three hours.

Edited September 23, 2020 by Sakura
Terunofuji

[Sakura 1,498]

Juryo yusho race through Day 10:

9-1 J11w Chiyonokuni 

8-2 J2w Kotonowaka, J10e Akiseyama

7-3 J2e Kotoyuki, J10w Midorifuji, J13w Nishikifuji

In the two matches between the leaders, each was won by the higher ranked rikishi. Every other leading rikishi also won so we'e down to just 6 rikishi within two of the top. That's just one more than Makuuchi has tied for first. I was able to watch Juryo yesterday live (apart from Akiseyama, whom I missed) and I was pleased with what I saw from Chiyonokuni, Kotonowaka and the Isegahama duo.

Matches for the leaders:

9-1 Chiyonokuni vs Nishikigi 4-6

8-2 Kotonowaka vs Churanoumi 6-4
8-2 Akiseyama vs Chiyoshoma 5-5

7-3 Kotoyuki vs Daishomaru 3-7
7-3 Midorifuji vs Kyokushuho 4-6
7-3 Nishikifuji vs Takagenji (Ms1) 2-3

No action in the lower division races on Day 10, but on Day 11 all undefeated rikishi are in action. They've been paired up in banzuke order, which means we could end up with just one 6-0 rikishi in Makushita or Jonokuchi or both.

[Churaumi 745]

He's also going to need to up his yotsu sumo game. The YDC likes better-rounded rikishi. Even if he happens to be great at it, we rarely see it from him.

[maorencze 144]

5 hours ago, Churaumi said:

He's also going to need to up his yotsu sumo game. The YDC likes better-rounded rikishi. Even if he happens to be great at it, we rarely see it from him.

Given his proportions, I don't think you can get rounder than this, currently he's looking almost perfectly spherical.

[Sakura 1,498]

Day 11 (results,text-only results )
 

9-2 Ow, Takakeisho, Se Shodai, M8w Wakatakakage, M14e Tobizaru

8-3 Oe Asanoyama, M1e Terunofuji, M9w Onosho

7-4 Sw Mitakeumi, M1w Takanosho, M12e Kotoshoho

Results from day 11

In the match up between co-leaders it was newcomer Tobizaru who was successful. Onosho drops back to the chasing group and now is in the position of requiring other rikishi to defeat Tobizaru and Wakatakakage to have any hope for the yusho. All the other co-leaders looked comfortable in their victories with Takakeisho, Shodai and Wakatakakage beating Takarafuji, Takayasu and Choyotairyu.

Asanoyama made it eight straight with a win over Okinoumi and avoids kadoban after that dreadful start. Terunofuji is still in the hunt and may be called upon to face Wakatakakage and Tobizaru in the near future.

It's possible but unlikely that all four leaders will drop two bouts in the last four days so a 13-2 or a 12-3 is the likely yusho score.

Day 11 match-ups

We are guaranteed to shrink the leading group again today with Wakatakakage meeting Tobizaru. In the chasing group Terunofuji takes on Onosho in what could be a yusho elimination bout. They are still following the scheduling formula for the Sanyaku so Takakeisho is taking on make-koshi Endo and Asanoyma faces almost MK Daieisho. Shodai's opponent is Takarafuji.

Sanyaku

Shodai is now just one away from double-digits, but he has bigger things on his mind. Mitakeumi's seventh win guarantees him a place in Sanyaku next time. Daieisho is still clinging onto Sekiwake but the two Komusubi are now makekoshi and will be saying goodbye to the rank. It's disappointing since if there ever was a basho to get a KK as a Komusubi it's one in which you only have five rikishi ranked Sekiwake or above. However both Okinoumi and Endo have looked considerably worse than the joi this time around.

The losses by the Komusubi mean that at least one Sanyaku slot has opened up. In theory we could still have Shodai and Mitakeumi holding down Sekiwake slots and Daieisho only dropping to Komusubi. Terunofuji as the top Maegashira and with a KK should get the nod for that slot. If Shodai gets promoted and Daieisho ends up with nine losses we could end up with three open slots, so there is still something to fight for here.

After Terunofuji, Takanosho is in the best position to claim a slot.

 

	0-0-11	Hakuho	Y	Kakuryu	0-0-11
	8-3	Asanoyama	O	Takakeisho	9-2
	9-2	Shodai	S	Mitakeumi	7-4
	4-7	Daieisho	S
(x)	3-8	Okinoumi	K	Endo	3-8	(x)
	8-3	Terunofuji	M1	Takanosho	7-4
	4-7	Hokutofuji	M2	Tamawashi	5-6
	4-7	Myogiryu	M3	Terutsuyoshi	3-8	(x)
			M4	Tochinoshin	5-6
(x)	6-4-1	Kiribayama	M5	Takarafuji	6-5
	6-5	Takayasu	M6	Kagayaki	6-5
			M7	Aoiyama	6-5
			M8	Wakatakakage	9-2
			M9	Onosho	8-3
			...
	9-2	Tobizaru	M14

Makuuchi-Juryo

Tokushoryu is safe from any M17 removal now thanks to his victory over fellow demotion candidate Hoshoryu, but I would say that it is looking very unlikely that the size of the Sanyaku will grow. In fact it's much more likely to shrink and we'll end up gaining another M17.

Meisei also won to be safe. Ichinojo woke up and now needs just two. In the match-ups between demotion candidates Enho beat Shimanoumi, Kaisei was victorious over injured Ishiura and Shohozan notched up another win at the expense of Kotoshogiku. Aside from the Abi and Kyokutaisei, Shohozan still sits atop the most in danger list, but he now shares that spot with Ishiura. Kotoshogiku's immediate Makuuchi future is also in serious danger as is Shimanoumi's and Hoshoryu's.

Kotonowaka secured a promotable record and we should be seeing him back in the top division after one basho. Kotoyuki failed to pick up an eighth win, but there were a number of wins in the promotion zone, with wins by Wakamotoharu, Chiyoshoma, Chiyomaru, Chiyonokuni and Akua. Losses by others have moved them them into (~) territory, requiring some banzuke luck. On the other hand those that were still clinging to banzuke luck already managed  to win so now we have a lot of Juryo rikishi with the potential to be promoted if luck goes their way.

 

(o)	4-7	Tokushoryu	M8
(1)	3-8	Enho	M9
			M10
			M11	Kotoshogiku	2-6-3	(3)
			M12	Kaisei	5-6	(1)
(o)	6-5	Meisei	M13	Ishiura	2-2-7	(4)
			M14	Abi	0-0-9	(x)
(3)	4-7	Shimanoumi	M15	Shohozan	3-8	(4)
(x)	2-3-5	Kyokutaisei	M16	Hoshoryu	5-6	(3)
(2)	6-5	Ichinojo	M17
			J1	Nishikigi	4-7	(4)
(2)	7-4	Kotoyuki	J2	Kotonowaka	9-2	(o)
(3)	6-5	Wakamotoharu	J3	Chiyomaru	5-6	(4)
(4)	6-5	Chiyoshoma	J4	Daiamami	4-7	(~)
(~)	4-7	Daishomaru	J5	Kyokushuho	4-7	(~)
(~)	6-5	Chiyonoo	J6	Akua	7-4	(4)
(~)	6-5	Churanoumi	J7
			J8
			J9
(~)	8-3	Akiseyama	J10	Midoriguji	8-3	(~)
			J11	Chiyonokuni	10-1	(3)

Juryo-Makushita

Kitaharima and Daishoho picked up wins, but those requiring just one more win all lost, so the situation hasn't changed too much down here. It was a crucial day in the Makushita promotion zone however. The most important matchup was Jokoryu beating Kaisho since it sent the latter the MK and keept Jokoryu's promotion hopes alive. Ura lost to Tochiseiryu in the Makushita yusho race and is arguable now also behind Chiyonoumi (who beat Sakigake) in the pecking order. Naya beat Kotodaigo to move to KK as well. Finally Takagenji's trip to Juryo was successful since he beat Nishikifuji and can still claim a winning record.

Jokoryu finishes his basho early on Day 12 as he's called up to Juryo to face demotion candidate Kitaharima.

 

			J7	Azumaryu	0-0-11	(????)
(1)	4-7	Mitoryu	J8	Tsurugisho	4-7	(1)
			J9
			J10
(1)	5-6	Hakuyozan	J11
intai		Kizakiumi	J12	Daishoho	5-6	(2)
(x)	0-11	Oki	J13
(????)	0-0-11	Fujiazuma	J14	Kitaharima	5-6	(3)
	3-3	Takagenji	Ms1	Jokoryu	3-3
	4-2	Chiyonoumi	Ms2
(x)	2-4	Kaisho	Ms3	Sakigake	3-3
			Ms4	Naya	4-2
	3-3	Kotodaigo	Ms5	Ura	5-1

numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
Explanation of symbols used:

o = favourable outcome achieved
x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck

Edited September 23, 2020 by Sakura
Kotonowaka

[WAKATAKE 2,677]

Kotoshoho is in Juryo???

[Sakura 1,498]

Juryo yusho race through Day 11:

10-1 J11w Chiyonokuni 

9-2 J2w Kotonowaka, 

8-3 J10e Akiseyama, J10w Midorifuji, 

Chiyonokuni brought his usual intensity to defeat Nishikigi and remains in the lead. He'll have to keep it up though because Kotonowaka is looking good. I imagine it'll come down to those two. If the gap remains just one or even if they're tied I can see the schedulers saving Chiyonokuni-Kotonwaka for senshuraku.

Akiseyama lost to promotion seeking Chiyoshoma and drops to two-behind. The key matchup on day 12 is Kotonowaka vs Akiseyama.

Matches for the leaders:

10-1 Chiyonokuni vs Akua 7-4 J6w 

9-2 Kotonowaka vs Akiseyama 8-3 

8-3 Midorifuji vs Chiyoshoma 6-5 J4e

Lower division yusho races:

Ura lost to Tochiseriyu, but Terasawa (of rabbit fame) won his cross divisional bout so we should have a straight 6-0 v 6-0 showdown for the Makushita yusho. The same is true for Sandanme after Mityzan also lost his cross-divisional bout. With an odd number of 6-0 rikishi it'll be interesting to see who misses gets a 5-1 opponent. It should either be Ofukasawa which would leave Jonokuchi having a straight up decider and a potential for a Jonidan playoff or it will be Akiyoshi which has the potential to make things messy in Jonokuchi.

5-1 Ms5w Ura (Kise)
6-0 Ms28w Tochiseriyu (Kasugano)
6-0 Ms42e Terasawa (Takasago)

5-1 Sd7w Tamakongo (Katanonami)
6-0 Sd20e Hokutenkai (Onoe)
5-1 Sd30w Otsuji (Takadagawa)
5-1 Sd63w Nishinoryu (Sakaigawa)
6-0 Sd69e Nihonyanagi (Onomatsu)
5-1 Sd90e Miryzan (Otake)

6-0 Jd4w Nabatame (Futagoyama)
6-0 Jd14w Hokuseiho (Miyagino)
5-1 Jd47e Shishi (Irumagawa)
5-1 Jd64e Mimurodake (Isegahama)
6-0 Jd79e Ofukasawa (Naruto)
5-1 Jd82e Hagiwara (Naruto)

6-0 Jk5w Hisanotora (Dewanoumi)
6-0 Jk28w Akiyoshi (Onomatsu)
5-1 Jk30e Yutakanami (Tatsunami)

Edited September 24, 2020 by Sakura
Jonidan

[Sakura 1,498]

19 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Kotoshoho is in Juryo???

Very sorry. Trying to do many things at once, including helping out with the online schooling. Mistakes will happen.

[RabidJohn 1,858]

20 hours ago, Sakura said:

Tokushoryu got his one win and ought to be safe barring any M17 disappearance. 

I'm not sure about that. Makuuchi is a division of 42 rikishi and that's not going to change. Position no. 42 is currently M17E. A change in the number of sanyaku places will change its designation on the banzuke, but it will still be no. 42. If Tokushoryu has secured 42nd place in makuuchi, it's his whether it's called M17E or 16W.

[Sakura 1,498]

3 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm not sure about that. Makuuchi is a division of 42 rikishi and that's not going to change. Position no. 42 is currently M17E. A change in the number of sanyaku places will change its designation on the banzuke, but it will still be no. 42. If Tokushoryu has secured 42nd place in makuuchi, it's his whether it's called M17E or 16W.

It happened with Meisei though just a couple of basho back. His record was a 7-8 at M17E with an M18E on the banzuke. His rank/record combo should have been enough but the M18 went away. The demotion ranges seem to based on proximity to the bottom of the banzuke rather than the top, and if the bottom rank disappears then so does the relationship.

[Asashosakari 19,688]

39 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm not sure about that. Makuuchi is a division of 42 rikishi and that's not going to change. Position no. 42 is currently M17E. A change in the number of sanyaku places will change its designation on the banzuke, but it will still be no. 42. If Tokushoryu has secured 42nd place in makuuchi, it's his whether it's called M17E or 16W.

It's clear that they don't really concern themselves with the ordinal ranking positions like that, otherwise we wouldn't be seeing stuff such as 7-8's effectively getting promoted sometimes when the size of sanyaku is reduced. (Example: Kagayaki, Takekaze and Nishikigi after Kyushu 2017, sanyaku from 11 to 9.)

[Seiyashi 4,108]

48 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm not sure about that. Makuuchi is a division of 42 rikishi and that's not going to change. Position no. 42 is currently M17E. A change in the number of sanyaku places will change its designation on the banzuke, but it will still be no. 42. If Tokushoryu has secured 42nd place in makuuchi, it's his whether it's called M17E or 16W.

The obvious counterexample to this logic is, if Daieisho goes down to K1E, he's still the 7th man on the banzuke, but try telling him he never got demoted... 

[Reonito 1,531]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

It should either be Ofukasawa which would leave Jonokuchi having a straight up decider and a potential for a Sandanme playoff or it will be Akiyoshi which has the potential to make things messy in Jonokuchi.

This should be "Jonidan playoff", no?

[Reonito 1,531]

Kitaharima is currently tied for 3rd for the number of times a rikishi has dropped from Juryo to Makushita, with 7. Can he make it 8, which would move him into a tie for second, one behind the recently retired leader, Kizenryu? Kizenryu, however, was one-and-done in Juryo all 9 times, and leads second-place Kitaharima by 4 on that list.

[Sakura 1,498]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

This should be "Jonidan playoff", no?

Yes. 

[Sakura 1,498]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Kitaharima is currently tied for 3rd for the number of times a rikishi has dropped from Juryo to Makushita, with 7. Can he make it 8, which would move him into a tie for second, one behind the recently retired leader, Kizenryu? Kizenryu, however, was one-and-done in Juryo all 9 times, and leads second-place Kitaharima by 4 on that list.

Perhaps he would like to break Kizenryu's Juryo promotion record?

Relevant database queries: one-and-dones, Juryo demotions and Juryo promotions

[Reonito 1,531]

9 minutes ago, Sakura said:

Perhaps he would like to break Kizenryu's Juryo promotion record?

Relevant database queries: one-and-dones, Juryo demotions and Juryo promotions

And he can't get promoted without getting demoted first! 

[shumitto 418]

12 hours ago, Sakura said:

Relevant database queries: one-and-dones,

Sakigake can move up this ladder with a win tomorrow (and a demotion in November), but I don't believe he will defeat Takagenji. 

Kudos to Jokoryu for getting his promotion. Even the commentators sounded somewhat enthused.  It was  a rough start (0-3), but when there are so many demotion candidates in Juryo you can't miss your kachikoshi. What doesn't look good is the fact that all his wins came against struggling opposition (three MK in makushita and Kitaharima at 5-7).

Edited September 24, 2020 by shumitto
typo

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 hour ago, shumitto said:

Sakigake can move up this ladder with a win tomorrow (and a demotion in November), but I don't believe he will defeat Takagenji. 

Kudos to Jokoryu for getting his promotion. Even the commentators sounded somewhat enthused.  It was  a rough start (0-3), but when there are so many demotion candidates in Juryo you can't miss your kachikoshi. What doesn't look good is the fact that all his wins came against struggling opposition (three MK in makushita and Kitaharima at 5-7).

He's still Ms1w with a kachi-koshi, and with an abundance of demotion candidates at the bottom of Juryo in addition to Kizakiumi's slot, he's guaranteed a promotion (perhaps alongside Takagenji), quality of opposition or not. I don't even think the banzuke committee bothers looking at the quality of opposition too much when considering non-ozeki/yokozuna promotions, otherwise they'd have way more work than is necessary.

[Yamanashi 3,909]

On 21/09/2020 at 16:57, Yamanashi said:

Aw, come on, what about Iwata, who fought his way up to Jk2 without ever going katchikoshi in 6 basho, and at 3-2 he may yet rocket into the Elysian fields of lower Jonidan

AND ... HE DID IT!  4-2 at Jk2 will definitely put him into Jonidan.  Now he can start getting fitted for those nice Sandanme slippers.

[Sakura 1,498]

Day 12 (results,text-only results )
 

10-2 Ow, Takakeisho, Se Shodai, M14e Tobizaru

9-3 Oe Asanoyama, M8w Wakatakakage, M9w Onosho

8-4 M1e Terunofuji, M1w Takanosho, M12e Kotoshoho

Results from day 12

Tobizaru is having the kind of debut basho that Hoshoryu can only dream of. He was victorious over fellow leader Wakatakakage on day 11. His tenth win should also get him the kanto-sho. I wouldn't be surprised to see him face Terunofuji on day 14, but before that he gets to meet Takanosho, which is a tough match-up. If he's still in the lead group I wouldn't be surprised if they broke up the top four round robin on Day 15 to include him. My guess would be they would shift out Mitakeumi and have him face Shodai.

Takanosho for his part is available for match-ups against chasers Wakatakakage and Onosho if needed on days 14 and 15. 

Shodai joined Tobizaru in the lead with a convincing win and Takakeisho had a welcome fusen-sho against Endo. At least we have a reason for Endo's poor performance this basho. For the chasers Onosho beat Terunofuji and it now seems unlikely that the former Ozeki will  pick up consecutive yushos. The four loss rikishi are not out of it yet, as there is enough potential for the Ozeki duo and the Sekiwake to take wins from each other for 11-4 to be the final record. (E.g. Takakeisho beats Shodai, Asanoyama beats Takakeisho and Shodai, Mitakeumi beats Asanoyama and Takakeisho). Though, I think it unlikely.

Asanoyama managed to overcome Daieisho and remain in the hunt, but given that he's slated to face Mitakeumi, Shodai and Takakeisho the yusho is not currently in his own hands and he needs someone else to beat Tobizaru. 

Day 13 match-ups

For the third straight day we have two leaders going head-to-head and it is Takakeisho against Shodai. As mentioned before, Tobizaru has Takanosho. Wakatakakage takes his turn against Terunofuji whereas Onosho has M6 Takarafuji. Finally, Asanoyama has Mitakeumi in the sort of match-up that Mitakeumi tends to win.

Sanyaku

After his tenth win Shodai will at least carry on his Ozeki run to November, if he doesn't get promoted after Aki. Mitakeumi is still trying to find his eighth after losing to Takayasu and needs to win out to keep his own Ozeki run alive. Daieisho will drop from Sekiwake but not yet from Sanyaku, so we still have only one open slot. Takanosho joined Terunofuji on eight wins and is likely to be the next man in after the Mongolian.

Based on Takanosho's eight I have removed a number of rikishi for contention for Sanyaku slots for now. I can always revisit after Day 15 if needs be.

 

	0-0-12	Hakuho	Y	Kakuryu	0-0-12
	9-3	Asanoyama	O	Takakeisho	10-2
	10-2	Shodai	S	Mitakeumi	7-5
	4-8	Daieisho	S
(x)	4-8	Okinoumi	K	Endo	3-9	(x)
	8-4	Terunofuji	M1	Takanosho	8-4
	5-7	Hokutofuji	M2	Tamawashi	5-7
	5-7	Myogiryu	M3
			M4	Tochinoshin	5-7	(x)
			M5	Takarafuji	6-6	(x)
	7-5	Takayasu	M6	Kagayaki	6-6	(x)
			M7	Aoiyama	7-5	(x)
			M8	Wakatakakage	9-3
			M9	Onosho	9-3
			...
	10-2	Tobizaru	M14

Makuuchi-Juryo

Enho and Kaisei both won today over fellow demotion candidates Hoshoryu and Shohozan and are now safe. Shimanoumi picked up a win against ailing Kotoshogiku and they were the only wins in the demotion zone. Kotoshogiku is still in better shape mathematically than Ishiura and Shohozan who are now demotable by the numbers, but there is a good possibility that the former Ozeki will retire if he ends up with a demotable record.

The only rikishi who can still get a normal promotion record that won on Day 12 was yusho leading Chiyonokuni. Results elsewhere meant that we now have a whole host of rikishi that could end up with lucky promotions. I guess this will be clearer after Day 15. One rikishi who definitely won't be getting a lucky promotion is Kyokushoho who succumbed to make-koshi. Even with all the lucky promotion candidates there will still be a promotion order at the end of the basho. A 10-5 Chiyonoo at J6 is more promotable than an 8-7 Daiamami at J4.

 

(o)	4-8	Enho	M9
			M10
			M11	Kotoshogiku	2-7-3	(3)
			M12	Kaisei	6-6	(o)
			M13	Ishiura	2-3-7	(~)
			M14	Abi	0-0-9	(x)
(2)	5-7	Shimanoumi	M15	Shohozan	3-9	(~)
(x)	2-3-5	Kyokutaisei	M16	Hoshoryu	5-7	(3)
(2)	6-6	Ichinojo	M17
			J1
(2)	7-5	Kotoyuki	J2	Kotonowaka	9-3	(o)
(3)	6-6	Wakamotoharu	J3	Chiyomaru	5-7	(~)
(~)	6-6	Chiyoshoma	J4	Daiamami	5-7	(~)
(~)	5-7	Daishomaru	J5	Kyokushuho	4-8	(x)
(~)	7-5	Chiyonoo	J6	Akua	7-5	(~)
(~)	7-5	Churanoumi	J7
			J8
			J9
(~)	9-3	Akiseyama	J10	Midorifuji	9-3	(~)
			J11	Chiyonokuni	11-1	(2)

Juryo-Makushita

Jokoryu was successful against Kitaharima and finishes his basho with a 4-3. He's not guaranteed promotion yet as we still have only two open slots and he could end up behind Chiyonoumi and Takagenji if they both win. Those two are both in action. Chiyonoumi goes up to Juryo to face demotion threatened Daishoho. Takagenji has an MK/KK showdown with fellow Makushita-joi Sakigake.

Daishoho now needs two from three and Kitaharima needs to win out to ensure safety. Mitoryu, Tsurugisho and Hakuyozan all got the wins they needed to ensure their sekitori survival. Finally, if Kotoshogiku does call it quits we'll have another open slot in Juryo to account for it.

 

			J7	Azumaryu	0-0-11	(????)
(o)	5-7	Mitoryu	J8	Tsurugisho	5-7	(o)
			J9
			J10
(o)	6-6	Hakuyozan	J11
intai		Kizakiumi	J12	Daishoho	5-7	(2)
(x)	0-11	Oki	J13
(????)	0-0-11	Fujiazuma	J14	Kitaharima	5-7	(3)
	3-3	Takagenji	Ms1	Jokoryu	4-3
	4-2	Chiyonoumi	Ms2
			Ms3	Sakigake	3-3
			Ms4	Naya	4-2
	3-3	Kotodaigo	Ms5	Ura	5-1

o = favourable outcome achieved
numbers = wins needed until favourable outcome (getting promoted / not getting demoted)
Explanation of symbols used:

x = favourable outcome definitely missed
~ = favourable outcome missed "by the numbers", but still achievable through banzuke luck

Edited September 24, 2020 by Jakusotsu
"Day 11 match-ups" corrected

[Yamanashi 3,909]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

I guess this will be clearer after Day 15.

Why didn't I think of that Jedi-level analysis?

[Sakura 1,498]

Juryo yusho race through Day 12:

11-1 J11w Chiyonokuni 

10-2 -

9-3 J2w Kotonowaka, J10e Akiseyama, J10w Midorifuji, 

Akiseyama, who is doing a lot better than my Oracle projection, defeated chaser Kotonowaka. Both men, alongside Midorifuji, find themselves now two off the pace after Chiyonokuni overcame Akua earlier in the day. With two wins up and just three days to go Chiyonokuni is in good shape. They have now brought the match-up with Kotonowaka forward to Day 13, whilst that match-up is still relevant. After today the only match-ups between the leaders yet to happen is Kotonowaka - Midorifuji.

Match-ups for the leaders:

11-1 Chiyonokuni vs Kotonowaka 9-3

9-3 Akiseyama vs Wakamotoharu 6-6 J3e
9-3 Midorifuji vs  Akua 7-5 J6w

Lower division yusho races:

As expected on Day 13 we have Yusho deciders in Makushita (Tochiseryu vs Terasawa) and Sandanme (Hokutenkai vs Nihonyanagi). In the end we also have a decider in Jonokuchi (Hisanotora vs Akiyoshi). This of course means that the odd man out was Jonidan's Ofukasawa who gets a bout with a 5-1 rikishi (and it turns out to be a match-up against Shishi). If he wins he'll enter a playoff with the winner of Hokuseiho and Nabatame. If he loses then that later bout is the straight up decider and we would have a situation where there would be no lower division playoffs. This hasn't happened since either Natsu 2014 (The database lists two rikishi tied with 7-0 in Sandanme but no playoff. Database error? Or one rikishi pulling out before the playoff?) or Nagoya 2013.

[Sakura 1,498]

4 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

Why didn't I think of that Jedi-level analysis?

Perhaps you would like to spend hours crafting these posts....

[Gurowake 4,109]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

He's still Ms1w with a kachi-koshi, and with an abundance of demotion candidates at the bottom of Juryo in addition to Kizakiumi's slot, he's guaranteed a promotion (perhaps alongside Takagenji), quality of opposition or not. I don't even think the banzuke committee bothers looking at the quality of opposition too much when considering non-ozeki/yokozuna promotions, otherwise they'd have way more work than is necessary.

An abundance of demotions from Juryo can only be expected if they do the normal thing for the people who were not allowed to compete.  They really should treat them as kosho; it's absolutely unforgivable in my mind to demote then when they are willing and able to fight, but aren't allowed to for a completely outside reason.  The only ones that seems certain are Oki and Kitaharima, and even the latter's not certain yet.  After that there's Daishoho who needs only 2 wins, and after that everyone's safe.  So if they do the "right" thing, that's at most 3 demotions.  We probably won't find out until next Wednesday.

Edited September 24, 2020 by Gurowake