Sakura

Nagoya 2019 Discussion (here be spoilers)

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2 hours ago, lackmaker said:

5th straight. And it that time he's never won more than 7 bouts if you ignore the fusen. He's a prospect for sure but as you say the next level awaits.

And having started 0-3 he’s gone on to win his next seven. That’s comfortably his longest winning streak in the joi. He’d never managed four in a row before now. He seems to be in good form and likely to get his first true kachikoshi that far up the banzuke.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Dwale said:

Yeah, if it was a one-of I wouldn't think much of it, but he's been getting a lot of air this Basho.

Indeed, I noticed the Tamawashi shuffle simply because his bout the day before ended the same way. Hokutofuji did the HNH and Tamawashi ran into the front row.

Edited by Eikokurai
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Mitakeumi barely beat 2-8 Meisei and continues to look shaky.   I don't see an Ozeki run.   

Enho has 4 chances to KK.   He will lose one tomorrow against Shohozan.  

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Posted (edited)

Takayasu has done the right thing going kyujo, but it doesn’t half impact the yusho race giving Hakuho the freebie. I find it hard to believe the Kyokai couldn’t anticipate Takayasu sitting out when they scheduled that bout. (No, that’s not a tin foil hat, honest!)

Edited by Eikokurai

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9 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Takayasu has done the right thing going kyujo, but it doesn’t half impact the yusho race giving Hakuho the freebie. I find it hard to believe the Kyokai couldn’t anticipate Takayasu sitting out when they scheduled that bout. (No, that’s not a tin foil hat, honest!)

That matchup (Yokozuna v sole Ozeki) coming on Day 11 confused most people.  The NHK commentators (i.e., Murray Johnson in particular) were at a loss from the point it was announced.  The logic still escapes me as well.  One possibility is that both elite wrestlers looked as though they were struggling with injuries and on the verge of withdrawing.  But that was then a very risky choice of matchups. What would have happened if both wrestlers withdrew on the same day?  Has that ever happened?  Someone is going to double check, but I get the feeling it has indeed never happened.  The Kyokai is pretty set on having a clear win-loss decision on every bout, and while there was a time when ties were possible, those days are long over.  But just imagine a double-withdrawal tie!  Two white banners bumping into each other up on the ring.  The gyoji holding his gumbai up straight ahead with a confused look on his face...  (Minds blown!) :-|

 

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4 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

That matchup (Yokozuna v sole Ozeki) coming on Day 11 confused most people.  The NHK commentators (i.e., Murray Johnson in particular) were at a loss from the point it was announced.  The logic still escapes me as well.  One possibility is that both elite wrestlers looked as though they were struggling with injuries and on the verge of withdrawing.  But that was then a very risky choice of matchups. What would have happened if both wrestlers withdrew on the same day?  Has that ever happened?  Someone is going to double check, but I get the feeling it has indeed never happened.  The Kyokai is pretty set on having a clear win-loss decision on every bout, and while there was a time when ties were possible, those days are long over.  But just imagine a double-withdrawal tie!  Two white banners bumping into each other up on the ring.  The gyoji holding his gumbai up straight ahead with a confused look on his face...  (Minds blown!) :-|

 

In that situation the win should go to the guy who went kyujo second! 

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First time since the Showa Era that four Ozeki have withdrawn from competition.  In a word, "disappointing" ... for all sumo fans.  But the real question is: what will the koreyori sanyaku final three bouts look like on Day 15?  Let's say Kakuryu and Hakuho meet in the final bout.  Any guesses as to the other two bouts?  There could be as many as three Maegashira wrestlers filling those slots.  Very unusual, methinks.

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4 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

First time since the Showa Era that four Ozeki have withdrawn from competition.  In a word, "disappointing" ... for all sumo fans.  But the real question is: what will the koreyori sanyaku final three bouts look like on Day 15?  Let's say Kakuryu and Hakuho meet in the final bout.  Any guesses as to the other two bouts?  There could be as many as three Maegashira wrestlers filling those slots.  Very unusual, methinks.

Yes, I was pondering what the sanyaku soroibumi was going to look like when it seemed as if Takayasu and Hakuho were both injured and potentially going to sit out. Hak is still there, and got a day of rest today, so it might not be too terrible, but imagine it with just Kakuryu and then the two sekiwake and komusubi (and who says Tamawashi is going to last?).

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6 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

In that situation the win should go to the guy who went kyujo second! 

Or in the case that both kyujo were submitted simultaneously, the win would be awarded to the higher-ranked sekitori (i.e., Hakuho)...

And given that the white banners announce fusensho, there would obviously be only one needed.  (My imaginary scenario was fun while it lasted...);-)

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1 minute ago, Amamaniac said:

Or in the case that both kyujo were submitted simultaneously, the win would be awarded to the higher-ranked sekitori (i.e., Hakuho)...

And given that the white banners announce fusensho, there would obviously be only one needed.  (My imaginary scenario was fun while it lasted...);-)

Old school yusho style, when they’d just give it to the bloke who was higher ranked if two rikishi ended on the same numbers.

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

But the real question is: what will the koreyori sanyaku final three bouts look like on Day 15?  Let's say Kakuryu and Hakuho meet in the final bout.  Any guesses as to the other two bouts? 

I guess Tamawashi vs. Abi will be one of them (if Tamawashi is still in by then).

Edit: ...and of course Mitakeumi against some Maegashira.

Edited by Jakusotsu

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Impressive win by Kotoeko over Shimanoumi.  Both men are doing good, nay excellent, sumo, but Kotoeko showed his metal in this one.

Meanwhile, Top Division rookie Takagenji is on a nasty losing streak.  I am starting to doubt that he will get his KK this tournament, and if he doesn't get one or two more wins, he may well drop back down to the Juryo Division and rejoin his twin brother...

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7 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

I guess Tamawashi vs. Abi will be one of them (if Tamawashi is still in by then).

When there are few Yokozuna or Ozeki to choose from, there seems to be a tendency (?) to include both Sekiwake in the koreyori sanyaku, but they pit each of them against rank-and-filers in separate bouts as in January this year.  But if the torikumi committee were to do as you predict, then perhaps they would include Abi in the first bout (the other Komusubi, Ryuden, already has his MK).  But even Abi's KK is not a sure thing.  I am very curious to see how this all gets worked out.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Meanwhile, Top Division rookie Takagenji is on a nasty losing streak.  I am starting to doubt that he will get his KK this tournament, and if he doesn't get one or two more wins, he may well drop back down to the Juryo Division and rejoin his twin brother...

It is like the dam broke wide open.  He was on a tear for two previous basho and won 3 straight at the start of the current one.  The obvious suspicion is that he is injured.  I was half kidding to hint that he was on PED.  I take that back ;-).

Edited by robnplunder

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, Amamaniac said:

Impressive win by Kotoeko over Shimanoumi.  Both men are doing good, nay excellent, sumo, but Kotoeko showed his metal in this one.

Meanwhile, Top Division rookie Takagenji is on a nasty losing streak.  I am starting to doubt that he will get his KK this tournament, and if he doesn't get one or two more wins, he may well drop back down to the Juryo Division and rejoin his twin brother...

Assuming the worst and he loses until senshuraku, he’d end on 4-11. An M10 with 4-11 has been demoted 10 times and stayed in Makuuchi 16 times, so while there is plenty of precedent for demotion, history is marginally in his favour.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=4&form1_losses=11&form2_rank=J

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=4&form1_losses=11&form2_rank=M

Edit: Scrap that. An M10 with 5-10 has been sent packing to Juryo 16 times, so maybe Takagenji shouldn’t relax just yet.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=5&form1_losses=10&form2_rank=J

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=5&form1_losses=10&form2_rank=M

Edited by Eikokurai
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1 minute ago, robnplunder said:

I was half kidding to hint that he was on PED.  I take that back ;-).

Spoiler

While PED use is a frowned-upon topic in this forum (and for good reason given that there is never any definitive proof), I couldn't help notice that Tochinoshin appeared without his buttock plasters in this tournament – and look what happened.  The list of his injuries provided by Kintayama-san seems to suggest that by discontinuing PED use, all those prior injuries reappeared.  

And is it just me, or does Sadanoumi have a Tochinoshin-esque plaster on his left buttock?  He's had two straight MKs, but with plaster on butt, he's looking as though he might get 8 or more wins this tournament.  And yes, I know, he's fighting easier (on paper) opponents this time around.  Still, desperate times can call for desperate measures...

 

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Thoughts about today:

Enho v. Sadanoumi was AWESOME! 

I'm pretty sure I felt those collisions between Chiyotairyu and Daishoho here in Orlando!

Aoiyama looked like he was bull fighting with Abi

And Kakuryu looks better everyday. I wanted Kotoshogiku to win but dang that man Kakuryu aint playin'!

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

In that situation the win should go to the guy who went kyujo second! 

You have to physically get up on the dohyo to earn a fusen win, so it would be recorded as a loss for both. (I get that you're not being entirely serious, but for the record...)

Edited by ryafuji
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Highlights for me were...

Enho vs. Sadanoumi: What a great effort by Enho. This nice thing about toukon is that the amount you have isn't contingent on the size of your body. Really hoping we won't have a repeat of last basho. I want Enho in makuuchi as long as possible.

Abi vs. Aoiyama: Once again, Aoiyama should not be as nimble as he is. I like Abi and I want to see him do well, so hopefully he learned something.

Mitakeumi vs. Meisei: I was tense as a tightrope watching this. I assume yotsu battle is never Mitakeumi's plan A, so it makes me nervous when he's drawn into it. He did well to win that one. Good try from Meisei.

Kakuryu vs. Kotoshogiku: Kotoshogiku had him for a second there, but Kakuryu's defense was too much and he was able to turn the tables. If Kakuryu is still having back problems, he isn't showing it. I can't even remember the last time I saw him this strong.

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Posted (edited)

Y v O on Day 11 was probably just a case of "Let's do this while we can". With that massive depletion on the higher ranks and Yoks having already faced all joi, they've just diminished their odds of having to schedule unexpected low rankers for the yokozuna on days #13 or #14 - causing more torikumi chaos. Kak still needs to face both sekiwake, but Hakuho's options are running a little thin...

Edited by Koorifuu

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Assuming the worst and he loses until senshuraku, he’d end on 4-11. An M10 with 4-11 has been demoted 10 times and stayed in Makuuchi 16 times, so while there is plenty of precedent for demotion, history is marginally in his favour.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=4&form1_losses=11&form2_rank=J

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=4&form1_losses=11&form2_rank=M

Edit: Scrap that. An M10 with 5-10 has been sent packing to Juryo 16 times, so maybe Takagenji shouldn’t relax just yet.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=5&form1_losses=10&form2_rank=J

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=M10&form1_wins=5&form1_losses=10&form2_rank=M

You would have to take into account the size of the division. Lots of your examples of M10 rikishi going down to Juryo with 4-11 and all examples of M10 rikishi going down to Juryo with 5-10 came from a smaller Makuuchi banzuke (the last extension was 2004 when they went from 40 to 42 rikishi). On this basis, it would take enormous (and unprecedented) bad luck to be demoted from M10 with 5-10. Getting demoted with 4-11 from M10 is a distinct possibility, but still much rarer than staying in the division.

Edited by Randomitsuki
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34 minutes ago, Randomitsuki said:

You would have to take into account the size of the division. Lots of your examples of M10 rikishi going down to Juryo with 4-11 and all examples of M10 rikishi going down to Juryo with 5-10 came from a smaller Makuuchi banzuke (the last extension was 2004 when they went from 40 to 42 rikishi). On this basis, it would take enormous (and unprecedented) bad luck to be demoted from M10 with 5-10. Getting demoted with 4-11 from M10 is a distinct possibility, but still much rarer than staying in the division.

Yes, that’s a good point. Though I’m not sure I’d characterize a 40-rikishi Makuuchi division as that much smaller :)

I do think a demotion is pretty unlikely. He’s got a solid cushion and very recent history has been kind to rikishi with losing records. Chiyoshoma even avoided a Juryo drop with a makekoshi at M17, so it’s doubtful Takagenji will get heavily punished.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

Yes, that’s a good point. Though I’m not sure I’d characterize a 40-rikishi Makuuchi division as that much smaller :)

Yeah, I should have been more precise... It's not only the number of rikishi in Makuuchi, but also the size of sanyaku. Many of your examples are from historical banzuke that ended somewhere between M12 and M14 (due to smaller size of Makuuchi and a higher number of sanyaku). In such cases, 5-10 or 4-11 from M10 quite obviously resulted in demotion more often than not.

Edited by Randomitsuki
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FYI former Ozeki, Terunofuji, reached the Makushita Division in this tournament.  Ranked at Ms59e (near the bottom of the division), he has managed to win five of his first six bouts, with one bout to go.  His one loss on Day 4 may cost him a shot at the Makushita championship (as there are a couple of wrestlers with perfect 6-0 records), but he is technically still in the race.  Whatever happens, it is clear that he is performing well, and his comeback dreams are alive and well.

Back in 2015, I had him pegged to be the next Yokozuna.  How amazing would it be if he were to regain his Ozeki status!  Baby steps, I say. ;-)

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Posted (edited)
On 15/07/2019 at 11:16, Kintamayama said:

I had no doubt. Hakuhou is way under par this basho. He is either in decline or not well or both. All his bouts so far were rather shaky, as has been the case lately, zensho or not. A mammoth immovable object that just has to move slowly forward like Godzilla? At the present, he has no answer for that. And the slap comes full circle..

I don't see that. At least not to the extent that you seem to. Sure, he's not the 63-win-streak Hakuho anymore, but even his shaky bouts these days are usually still quite controlled (he was at 8-0 after all...). The loss against Ichinojo resulted from a well-countered game plan, for which you have to respect the Mongolith. Hakuho simply lacked the quick wit to turn it into a different bout.

Kakuryu on the other hand seems to be calmer than my late grandmother. Very much the man among boys at the moment.

And shouts to Tomokaze, who shows textbook Ozeki sumo day after day. I'm impressed.

 

Edit sez: Churaumi and Dwale were aiming in the same direction, I saw only later.

 

Edited by yorikiried by fate
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