First new Yokozuna during 2018-2019

[maorencze 144]

As the situation looks to me, 2018-2019 are THE years to get tsuna. Why?

- Kisenosato seems irreparable, Kakuryu seems eternally bothered by a pile of minor health issues

- Hakuho, switching from his specific ways of how to bypass his age/health limitations (as I perceived changes in his style) to please YDC, is showing that his recent health trouble (5 basho kyujo out of last 15) are clearly affecting his abilities and are here to stay

- Goeido is...well...Goeido

- Rest of the lineup is full of young hopes, old guard nearing the end of the road (hello Takekaze, but Yoshikaze, Kotoshogiku and Tamawashi as well, just not that near) and "middle-aged" sekitori that peaked at their current level and don't seem to have any more to offer (Arawashi, Takarafuji, Kaisei, Ishiura etc.)

So question is:

Who do you see as the most likely first new Yokozuna of 2018-2019 transition time?

And since we already got into this, what are your choices for other possible Y/O promotees during this timespan?

[Asashosakari 19,691]

Is "nobody" a valid answer? People were doing the "this is the time to step up!" thing around 1999-2001, too, but while it resulted in a wild ozeki carousel, it turned out that the only people newly capable of yokozuna-standard performances were existing yokozuna Akebono in a brief final career revival, and long-time high caliber ozeki Musashimaru. There's no Musashimaru-type rikishi around right now, so it could well be that simply nobody will reach the required level of maturity within the next couple of years.

Takayasu is the closest by default, but his sumo is of a type that needs a lot of things to go right to be consistently effective, so it's anyone's guess if he'll manage to achieve that anytime soon (or ever). As for anybody else...two years isn't much time to go from winning 8 to winning 13. And even Mitakeumi as the current frontrunner of the new generation isn't much more than a consistent 8-win guy yet. That's a fine basis for an assault on the ozeki rank in the near future, but becoming yokozuna is a whole different matter.

[Bumpkin 438]

Takayasu and Goeido are back-to-back yushos away from Yokozuna. Takayasu is four years younger. He is also much better. I predict that Takayasu will be the next Yokozuna.

[Katooshu 3,338]

Maybe 'next yokozuna' can become the next 'next ozeki'!

I'd say Takayasu is the most likely, as he's already made ozeki, has just produced a 12-3, and I think has more left than Goeido. As solid as some of the non-O/Y are, none remotely stand out as yokozuna by the end next year material.

Just look at Hatsu: Kise and Hakuho were giving away kinboshi and withdrew, Goeido was being Goeido, and Geek MK'd, yet Mitakeumi only went 8-7, Takakeisho was 5-10, Hokutofuji 4-11, Onosho was out after going 4-5, Tamawashi went 6-9, etc. Tochinoshin and Ichinojo did well, but I have big doubts about their ability to consistently excel near the top of the banzuke.

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Katooshu

[maorencze 144]

27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Is "nobody" a valid answer? People were doing the "this is the time to step up!" thing around 1999-2001, too, but while it resulted in a wild ozeki carousel, it turned out that the only people newly capable of yokozuna-standard performances were existing yokozuna Akebono in a brief final career revival, and long-time high caliber ozeki Musashimaru. There's no Musashimaru-type rikishi around right now, so it could well be that simply nobody will reach the required level of maturity within the next couple of years.

Takayasu is the closest by default, but his sumo is of a type that needs a lot of things to go right to be consistently effective, so it's anyone's guess if he'll manage to achieve that anytime soon (or ever). As for anybody else...two years isn't much time to go from winning 8 to winning 13. And even Mitakeumi as the current frontrunner of the new generation isn't much more than a consistent 8-win guy yet. That's a fine basis for an assault on the ozeki rank in the near future, but becoming yokozuna is a whole different matter.

Great answer, thanks for insight. I had "time off" since Eurosport stopped broadcasting till returning via Kintamayama's videos in 2013, so this is my first time seeing such interesting times, and being able to confront my "belief in this timespan" with experience of someone who saw similar things before unravel quite differently from my vision is very worthy, thanks again

Edited January 30, 2018 by maorencze

[Bumpkin 438]

48 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Is "nobody" a valid answer?

Eventually, Ozumo will have a 73rd Yokozuna. He will almost certainly be promoted before Hatsu 2020.

[Taikoubana 144]

I'm on board with Takayasu being the next Yok -- I started watching sumo near the end of 2016 and I knew Kisenosato would be the next Yok despite I knew almost nothing about sumo. After he was promoted, I immediately placed my bets on Takayasu. And unless the other hopefuls surprise me, that's where I'm keeping my bets.

But I also believe that it could be a year, or even three years until then. Although, I think it would be bittersweet for Hakuho to retire in 2020 without any definitive, promising rikishi (who is clear Yokozuna material) in the top division. He wants to be defeated by someone better than him before his time comes. It would be nice if that wish could come true, both for Hakuho, and for us sumo fans. Let the big guy go out with a bang of an even bigger guy in his place.

[Burajirotono 99]

Rationally i agree with Asashosakari...

But my heart says: Ichinooooooo jooooooooou! 

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

9 hours ago, Taikoubana said:

 I knew Kisenosato would be the next Yok despite because I knew almost nothing about sumo.

Here, I corrected it for you.

 

Then again, maybe really "despite" but for all the wrong reasons.

 

And the long distance psycho analysis of Hakuho's motives is probably definitely spot on for sure maybe.

Edited January 31, 2018 by yorikiried by fate

[Yamanashi 3,911]

Takayasu is the only one with a chance to get the qualifications in the next six basho.

 

[Dapeng 236]

As to Takayasu, we'll know after next basho. If he can manage 11 or 12, the NSK will select him as a candidate. However, Ichi and Tochi (if remain healthy) will be his stumbling blocks. 

[Morty 1,505]

Since the beginning of the six basho period (1958) there have only been 27 Yokozunae promoted. That is one every 2.2 years. But in the past 20 years there have only been 6 (thanks to the dominance of Asa and Hak) so more like one every 3.3 years. Kise was last year, so don't expect another one for a year or two. Becoming a Yokozuna is the hardest thing to achieve in world sport - that's why there have only been 72 of them since the 1700

[Bumpkin 438]

19 minutes ago, Morty said:

Since the beginning of the six basho period (1958) there have only been 27 Yokozunae promoted. That is one every 2.2 years. But in the past 20 years there have only been 6 (thanks to the dominance of Asa and Hak) so more like one every 3.3 years. Kise was last year, so don't expect another one for a year or two. Becoming a Yokozuna is the hardest thing to achieve in world sport - that's why there have only been 72 of them since the 1700

Hakuho will be 33 in March and has only completed three of his last six bashos. Kakuryu is 32, frequently injured and not that good. Kisenosato is 31 and seriously injured. It is entirely possible that all three will retire by this time next year.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Bumpkin

[Sakura 1,499]

10 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Hakuho will be 33 in March and has only completed three of his last six bashos. Kakuryu is 32, frequently injured and not that good. Kisenosato is 31 and seriously injured. It is entirely possible that all three will retire by this time next year.

There also needs to be someone to step up. When a `power vacuum' opens up due to a decline in Hakuho's annual performance either there is someone who is able to win enough to make Yokozuna or there will be a group of people who will pass around the cup but not win consistently enough to force a promotion.

Eventually one will come along, but I would be surprised if that person had the same statistical dominance as Hakuho.

[sekitori 492]

4 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Hakuho will be 33 in March and has only completed three of his last six bashos. Kakuryu is 32, frequently injured and not that good. Kisenosato is 31 and seriously injured. It is entirely possible that all three will retire by this time next year.

It's very possible, even probable, that both Kakuryu and Kisenosato won't last the entire year. But Hakuho's situation is different. It's true that he only completed three of his last six bashos. But of the three bashos he did complete, he won them all. His injuries have not been nearly as severe as those of the other two yokozunas. Unless he is seriously injured, I expect him to stay around long enough to set all the records he is trying for. He has said he wants to be active when the 2020 Olympics are held in Tokyo. At one time, that seemed impossible, but now I'm not so sure. The only question is if he can be competitive and put up yokozuna-like numbers for sixteen more bashos. If he is able to, even if he doesn't appear in every one of them,  he may be able to remain active until late July, 2020. Age can catch up with a rikishi pretty quickly, but If Hakuho does show up at the Olympics as an active yokozuna, that would be quite a story.

 

 

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

6 hours ago, Morty said:

Becoming a Yokozuna is the hardest thing to achieve in world sport

I'll see your Yokzuna and raise you a tennis grand slam.

[maorencze 144]

6 hours ago, Bumpkin said:

Hakuho will be 33 in March and has only completed three of his last six bashos. Kakuryu is 32, frequently injured and not that good. Kisenosato is 31 and seriously injured. It is entirely possible that all three will retire by this time next year.

From first 10 days of Hatsu, I would dare disagree with "not that good" - what he shown was a miracle, defeating even almost undefeatable (during Hatsu) eventual basho winner

@Asashosakari would you care to give here an educated guess for next Ozeki instead?

5 hours ago, sekitori said:

It's very possible, even probable, that both Kakuryu and Kisenosato won't last the entire year. But Hakuho's situation is different. It's true that he only completed three of his last six bashos. But of the three bashos he did complete, he won them all. His injuries have not been nearly as severe as those of the other two yokozunas. Unless he is seriously injured, I expect him to stay around long enough to set all the records he is trying for. He has said he wants to be active when the 2020 Olympics are held in Tokyo. At one time, that seemed impossible, but now I'm not so sure. The only question is if he can be competitive and put up yokozuna-like numbers for sixteen more bashos. If he is able to, even if he doesn't appear in every one of them,  he may be able to remain active until late July, 2020. Age can catch up with a rikishi pretty quickly, but If Hakuho does show up at the Olympics as an active yokozuna, that would be quite a story.

 

 

 Well, let's see how he copes with needing to return to body-demanding style of sumo to please YDC, no kachiage, no nekodamashi, no slap-sidestep-grab, none of those, or any of the others (as Bernard Black would say). From what I've seen during Hatsu and from skipping through Kinta's videos from last 10 basho where Hak was in attendance, it seems pretty obvious he can't do this the way he did in 2010-2014 anymore, his body is just not fully up to task. But I'll gladly stand corrected

[Stein 30]

9 hours ago, Burajirotono said:

Rationally i agree with Asashosakari...

But my heart says: Ichinooooooo jooooooooou! 

That guy is certainly not even ozeki material...but maybe you were just joking...

[Stein 30]

42 minutes ago, maorencze said:

From first 10 days of Hatsu, I would dare disagree with "not that good" - what he shown was a miracle, defeating even almost undefeatable (during Hatsu) eventual basho winner

@Asashosakari would you care to give here an educated guess for next Ozeki instead?

 Well, let's see how he copes with needing to return to body-demanding style of sumo to please YDC, no kachiage, no nekodamashi, no slap-sidestep-grab, none of those, or any of the others (as Bernard Black would say). From what I've seen during Hatsu and from skipping through Kinta's videos from last 10 basho where Hak was in attendance, it seems pretty obvious he can't do this the way he did in 2010-2014 anymore, his body is just not fully up to task. But I'll gladly stand corrected

Id say that he should *Very methaphorically* give the middle finger to the YDC council bulls***, they dont seem to have a problem when other yokozunas dont even show up  or show up just to get 4-5 :)

[Morty 1,505]

1 hour ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I'll see your Yokzuna and raise you a tennis grand slam.

When I was writing this I was thinking of tennis and golf major tournaments and wondering how many tennis players have won back to back grand slam tennis tournaments or golfers back to back majors as an equivalent test. Two in a row is a more reasonable equivalence than a tennis grand slam, as only five people have ever done that, or all four golf majors, which has never been done!

[dada78641 884]

I sincerely doubt we'll have one by the end of 2019. I don't think anyone is currently sufficiently "on the way up" for that. The only real candidate is Takayasu, but we'll need more time to determine how high carat he is as ozeki. Then there's Mitakeumi, the best of the new generation (at the moment). He's looking like he'll be a good ozeki someday if he gets a bit more consistency.

I have high hopes for a number of people, like Hokutofuji, Onosho and Takakeisho. But it's just too early to tell. They're obviously good, and have had the occasional excellent basho followed by disappointing performances. Hokutofuji and Takakeisho both had beautiful 11-4 records and then collapsed.

There's no one who's obviously ready to storm to the top like for example Hakuho was when he first became a maegashira.

We haven't seen a rise through the lower ranks quite as strong as Enho's in a while, but he's going to have a hard time in Juryo. He's at the point now where skill alone can't compensate for lack of size and strength.

[Benihana 1,937]

6 hours ago, yorikiried by fate said:

I'll see your Yokzuna and raise you a tennis grand slam.

 

4 hours ago, Morty said:

When I was writing this I was thinking of tennis and golf major tournaments and wondering how many tennis players have won back to back grand slam tennis tournaments or golfers back to back majors as an equivalent test. Two in a row is a more reasonable equivalence than a tennis grand slam, as only five people have ever done that, or all four golf majors, which has never been done!

I'll see your grand slam and your back-to-back golf masters raise a golden slam.

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

What's that?

Wait I know: the regular thing with an extra big marketing event in the summer, right?

[Benihana 1,937]

4 minutes ago, yorikiried by fate said:

What's that?

Wait I know: the regular thing with an extra big marketing event in the summer, right?

That's a grand slam + olympic gold medal in one year. Only Steffi achieved that.

[maorencze 144]

1 hour ago, dada78641 said:

We haven't seen a rise through the lower ranks quite as strong as Enho's in a while, but he's going to have a hard time in Juryo. He's at the point now where skill alone can't compensate for lack of size and strength.

I'm with you on him - Enho may prove to be too small I'm afraid, Makuuchi for sure but then the ceiling is a big question mark and I'd say that Mainoumi/Toyonoshima is the best he can hope for (more probably Satoyama/Ishiura)