Games Talk Hatsu 2018

[Sakura 1,524]

6 hours ago, Pandaazuma said:

I was beginning to wonder if I was doomed to lower-sanyaku limbo forever. Cheers!

That role has been shifted to Break The Curse for you 

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

8 hours ago, Sakura said:

That role has been shifted to Break The Curse for you 

Haha. I will try to do better!

In other news, I just found out I will be promoted to Yokozuna in Sumo Game. Never thought I would manage that. Now I have to worry about kinboshi!

[Gurowake 4,154]

35 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

In other news, I just found out I will be promoted to Yokozuna in Sumo Game. Never thought I would manage that. Now I have to worry about kinboshi!

That's great news!  Oh wait, if you fail he just demotes you to Ozeki instead of making you start over.  Never mind. :P

Edited January 30, 2018 by Gurowake

[Rocks 1,810]

38 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Haha. I will try to do better!

In other news, I just found out I will be promoted to Yokozuna in Sumo Game. Never thought I would manage that. Now I have to worry about kinboshi!

Congratulations! You certainly deserve it. 

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

That's great news!  Oh wait, if you fail he just demotes you to Ozeki instead of making you start over.  Never mind. :P

Lol. Oddly enough, it is easier to stay at yokozuna than ozeki in that game. I was surprised that I was still yokozuna in Norizo Cup this basho after two MKs...thought I would be in Makushita again.

Now I need to sort my Bench performances out. I keep picking two or three muppets in my team each time. Never make the summit that way.

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

While we are here, I was wondering what the other gamers thought were the most 'prestigious' games. I see some as just fun (Chain) or mostly luck (ISP) [Not to disparage them - both are great games] but others need more skill so I am happier to do well in those. For me the most prestigious pre-basho is Oracle and daily is Toto, but I also add Sumo Game as that was the first one I ever tried to play seriously and I find it truly infuriating sometimes, so the secret of doing well in it is elusive. For some reason, although I think Bench is a great game and really enjoy it, I don't mind so much when I go MK there. But MK in the above three for me is a massive no-no.

Apologies for the geeky question...but I am curious.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Pandaazuma

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,291]

I find that quad and odd are much more skill based than seki-toto, almost entirely based on the fact that seki-toto tries to force an even distribution of 14-1,13-2,12-3 etc scores between days instead of adjusting at the very end. Many times a whole days effort gets wiped out due to the nebulous 'risk factor' which in reality is double jeopardy anyway - as the only time to reliably estimate risk for a bout is in sanyaku and above in the early days, and you're already going to get a bonus if you take the risk there as you get the win while everyone takes the loss. For all other bouts from Juryo to maegashira pre-understanding the risk factor is pretty much impossible. I have to go to work but I can do a quantitative analysis later.

In short it has all the day to day uncontrollable fluctuations as sumo game without any of the intrigue of h2h battle with nearby banzuke opponents. 

[Asashosakari 20,301]

 I shouldn't be laughing, but...you're seriously trying to approach Toto through the prism of the risk factor scores?! No offense, but nobody is that good at predicting winners and losers that they can afford to trade off the likelihood of picking the correct winners against the likelihood of scoring the better risk factor scores, at least not in the long run. The winning strategy in Toto is always to pick the guys that you actually think are going to win the bouts. If you feel it ought to be different, you're looking for a very different game. (In fact, you're probably looking for Maegashira Game.)

Edited January 30, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Fukurou 534]

5 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

 I shouldn't be laughing, but...you're seriously trying to approach Toto through the prism of the risk factor scores?! No offense, but nobody is that good at predicting winners and losers that they can afford to trade off the likelihood of picking the correct winners against the likelihood of scoring the better risk factor scores, at least not in the long run. The winning strategy in Toto is always to pick the guys that you actually think are going to win the bouts. If you feel it ought to be different, you're looking for a very different game. (In fact, you're probably looking for Maegashira Game.)

My question about Toto has always been if it is better to use a X-pick or just pick a winner for a match you see as close.  (I'm one of those who has never made an X-pick)

[Senkoho 552]

The one I always care and get excited about the most is Quad. I'm not necessarily great at it, but it's definitely my favorite. 

I think DST comes second for me despite my dropping from 1st to 8th (?) at the end of last basho. (it would definitely benefit from non-public picking, though...) 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Senkoho

[Asashosakari 20,301]

@Sakura - did you switch your Fantasy Sumo username from Sakura (last Aki) to SakuraSumo (this basho), or is that a new player unrelated to you that has shown up? Banzuke maker's curiosity.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,291]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

 I shouldn't be laughing, but...you're seriously trying to approach Toto through the prism of the risk factor scores?! No offense, but nobody is that good at predicting winners and losers that they can afford to trade off the likelihood of picking the correct winners against the likelihood of scoring the better risk factor scores, at least not in the long run. The winning strategy in Toto is always to pick the guys that you actually think are going to win the bouts. If you feel it ought to be different, you're looking for a very different game. (In fact, you're probably looking for Maegashira Game.)

No, that's what I'm exactly saying! Why should the color of the hoshi be decided by what amounts to a totally random and unpredictable metric for ~5 people every day? Sure of course its better just to do 'so good' you never get caught out by it but I'm pretty sure over the course of the basho it affects everyone 2~3 times.

It comes down to nobody ever caring or thinking about part of the game because its so luck based. That's why I feel other dailies are more skill based because it doesn't have this silly tie breaker. If instead everyone's correct picks were tallied at the end of the basho, and ranked from there, I would be more inclined to agree with panda.

[Asashosakari 20,301]

2 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

No, that's what I'm exactly saying! Why should the color of the hoshi be decided by what amounts to a totally random and unpredictable metric for ~5 people every day? Sure of course its better just to do 'so good' you never get caught out by it but I'm pretty sure over the course of the basho it affects everyone 2~3 times.

It comes down to nobody ever caring or thinking about part of the game because its so luck based. That's why I feel other dailies are more skill based because it doesn't have this silly tie breaker. If instead everyone's correct picks were tallied at the end of the basho, and ranked from there, I would be more inclined to agree with panda.

You're seriously overthinking this. People don't think about that because it's not part of the game, at least not in the way you seem to think it is. It's not part of the game instructions to also try to maximize one's risk factor alongside one's win points, or to make assessments about how the rest of the player pool will be judging the bouts. The risk factor merely serves as an unavoidable tie-breaker to facilitate the actual game mechanic, that being the "production" of 50% winners and 50% losers on each day. Outside of the handful of people who happen to sit at the cut line each day it has absolutely no effect on the game. (If you have a better idea for doing that, I'm all ears.)

Of course people are free to play Toto in any way they wish, including optimizing their game play towards achievements that are mostly irrelevant (hello Choshu-yuki!), but I'm struggling to see how it's a shortcoming of the game that people are largely not playing it in a way that it's not designed to be played in the first place. What it was designed as is a sort of meta-Sumo Game, where instead of each player facing a daily opponent everybody's facing the entire crowd at once, which necessarily means that some people will be losing out by very small amounts each day. If that's not your thing, that's fine, but it was a conscious decision by Zenjimoto when he created Toto, not some sort of gap in the game rules.

By the way, by your logic you should dislike Quad even more, because the luck factor introduced by discrete daily scoring rather than accumulative results is much bigger there...

Edited January 30, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,301]

On a related note, I'd actually like to do away with the X-pick penalties in Toto completely, but alas, with Doitsuyama so busy these days it's unlikely that any changes to the Toto automation will be forthcoming, given that it's not exactly a high-priority issue.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,291]

27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

You're seriously overthinking this. People don't think about that because it's not part of the game, at least not in the way you seem to think it is. It's not part of the game instructions to also try to maximize one's risk factor alongside one's win points, or to make assessments about how the rest of the player pool will be judging the bouts. The risk factor merely serves as an unavoidable tie-breaker to facilitate the actual game mechanic, that being the "production" of 50% winners and 50% losers on each day. Outside of the handful of people who happen to sit at the cut line each day it has absolutely no effect on the game. (If you have a better idea for doing that, I'm all ears.)

Of course people are free to play Toto in any way they wish, including optimizing their game play towards achievements that are mostly irrelevant (hello Choshu-yuki!), but I'm struggling to see how it's a shortcoming of the game that people are largely not playing it in a way that it's not designed to be played in the first place. What it was designed as is a sort of meta-Sumo Game, where instead of each player facing a daily opponent everybody's facing the entire crowd at once, which necessarily means that some people will be losing out by very small amounts each day. If that's not your thing, that's fine, but it was a conscious decision by Zenjimoto when he created Toto, not some sort of gap in the game rules.

By the way, by your logic you should dislike Quad even more, because the luck factor introduced by discrete daily scoring rather than accumulative results is much bigger there...

I think you misunderstand what I'm arguing at. I'm totally fine with how it works now, and I don't pick games to play based on their luck/skill balance (mostly based on time to make an entry...) but that simply there is much more luck in toto than say quad. In quad you never get penalized in how the hive mind picks (or helped). In any case I can put some numbers later.

[Asashosakari 20,301]

I'm fairly sure I do understand what you're getting at. I'm just rather confused that you seem to think that the limited application of the risk factor makes Toto a more luck-based game than others out there, because that seems to run counter to what pretty much everybody else has concluded over the years. It may be a factor of luck that has no direct equivalent in other games, but the game mechanics themselves are more conducive to rewarding the actual best-skilled players than pretty much any other daily game out there. You seem to be focusing on a minor detail and treating it as a major influence on how the game works, which it just isn't.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Randomitsuki 2,914]

I agree with Pandaazuma that Seki-Toto (at least for me) was always the pinnacle of sumo gaming. It's daily, and it has complete sekitori coverage - you really have to know a bit about sumo to excel in this game.

However, to an extent I can also relate to Tsuchinoninjin's critique of the game. Though I would not suggest ever changing it, I think that total correct guesses over a basho would be a better indicator of gaming prowess. It was the only game where I frequently checked for the gino-sho score, as it seems to be an even better yardstick of ability than the actual win/loss total. Then again, I always loved (and simultaneously, hated) the moment when I checked the daily results to see whether I was above or below the dreaded line. But from a "scientific" point of view, converting the daily win totals (and the risk factor where needed) into a dichotomous shiroboshi/kuroboshi decision amounts to a loss of diagnostic data which is somewhat suboptimal.

Edited January 30, 2018 by Randomitsuki

[Rocks 1,810]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

By the way, by your logic you should dislike Quad even more, because the luck factor introduced by discrete daily scoring rather than accumulative results is much bigger there...

I'm sorry but what do you mean by "discrete daily scoring"? Isn't Quad just if you pick 3 right you win that day?

[Asashosakari 20,301]

35 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I'm sorry but what do you mean by "discrete daily scoring"? Isn't Quad just if you pick 3 right you win that day?

Tsuchinoninjin was saying that Toto could be made more skill-based by simply adding up all the points scored throughout the basho, and building the final standings from that, rather than awarding wins and losses daily. I'm saying that the exact same argument can be made about Quad. Back when I was still calculating luck scores for Quad there were always players whose W-L records were vastly better or worse than what they "should" have had based on their total points scored. And considering the W-L scores in Quad tend to cluster closely to the mean anyway (simply because even totally random picks have a good chance of producing a daily win), a luck factor of maybe +/- 2 wins is huge.

Think of it like this: In an average Quad basho the vast majority of players will finish between 5-10 and 9-6. A "true" 7-8 player could find himself both at the bottom and at the top of that corridor, simply through luck, and it happens quite regularly, almost certainly more than it does in Toto. (It's even worse in SG and Bench, of course, but there it's all amplified by the randomness of the player torikumi.)

Edited January 30, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Sakura 1,524]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

@Sakura - did you switch your Fantasy Sumo username from Sakura (last Aki) to SakuraSumo (this basho), or is that a new player unrelated to you that has shown up? Banzuke maker's curiosity.

Yes. That's me. I couldn't log in under Sakura for some reason.

[Sakura 1,524]

As far as prestige goes. Well, I haven't been playing long enough to know the answer to that, but if @Pandaazuma thinks that Oracle is prestigious then I'm happy to have gotten 4th this time. On a related note I don't know why my Oracle performance is now trending better than my Roto performance.

I play for fun, rather than for any other consideration. I certainly don't have the time to participate in lots of daily  games for example or to make a massive undertaken of entering all Masters games. Maybe some day.

I find Roto a lot more fun than Oracle, but I get more satisfaction out of a good score/position in Oracle compared with a corresponding one in Roto. The funnest games for me every basho are GTB and GKA primarily because the banzuke and torikumi making aspects tickle the right part of my personality.

That being said, my sumo gaming mood is tied almost exclusively to Bench Sumo. 

[Fujisan 537]

One word-Disaster

2 words-Absolute disaster

3 words-Absolute f*****g disaster

No Kachi koshis for the first time ever.......

7  7-8's is the best I could do...........................

 Just dont know where I'm going wrong and I hate that...

 

[Rocks 1,810]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Back when I was still calculating luck scores for Quad there were always players whose W-L records were vastly better or worse than what they "should" have had based on their total points scored.

Oh, duh, I get it. Discrete daily means they are getting a score every day as opposed to using their score for picks for the whole basho. Thanks.

[Gurowake 4,154]

I've thought that the daily games that best test your ability to determine the likelihood of each rikishi winning, not so much who exactly was going to win, are better than games that are almost pure up-and-down like Toto.  The ability to pick an X for matches you think are close allows you a little wiggle room, but there's not as much of it as you see in Odd and TUG.  Odd and TUG are the most "skill-testing" for the kind of thing that I think is most relevant; it asks you to often pick rikishi that you don't really think are going to win the match, but if you know where exactly the probability lies, you can judge which risk/reward offers the best compromise.  DST and Bench go a little in this direction (and Sumo Game a very slight amount), but there it's just relative likelihoods, not absolute likelihoods. 

I may have fallen into the negative this basho in overall Odd points, but just being about even after having played for years is quite an accomplishment; those that have managed a ton in lifetime winnings are even more admirable.

As much as looking at overall point totals in Toto and Quad might give different results than doing them daily, I like the fact that it isn't just a total addition of points and that you have to earn a shiroboshi every day.  That scoring system is the only reason why X picks are reasonable in Toto other than simply being unable to make up your mind - they reduce your volatility.  If you were to make 4 X picks and those 2 points were exactly enough to get a win, then if you had made actual choices for each match at least some small percentage of the time you would have gotten enough wrong to get a loss, and the times that you got more than you needed correct would not have helped at all.  Daily scoring in Quad means that you can try some alternate strategies that involve picking both sides of a match because one certain win can be more useful than two chances at a win; cumulative scoring would make it pointless.  Of course, perhaps some people don't like that strategy option being available, but I think it's explicitly condoned in the rules.

I think there is a possibility of a daily game that combines aspects of a lot of the other daily games in order to be more thorough in testing people's ability to gauge the likelihood of each rikishi winning, but I'm not going to try to get yet another daily game started that doesn't have a gimmick associated with it.  We would need to as a group to come up with something that that's not gimmicky but offers the ability to distinguish better players through its scoring mechanics and agree on it before really trying it out, and it also would probably need automation set up for it, which would not be all that easy to do.  I can do some coding on the spreadsheet level, even in Excel VBA, but I don't know enough about web servers and such and probably don't have it in me to try to learn.

As for the kinds of things I would like to see in this hypothetical daily game: Like Bench and DST, more points at the top of your line-up than at the bottom.  Like SG, the ability to pick which matches you want to predict and not have to make a choice on some particular matches (or all of them).  Like Odd, have the actual likelihood of winning be important, not just the relative likelihood.  I'll cogitate more on this.

[Ganzohnesushi 548]

13 hours ago, Pandaazuma said:

For me the most prestigious pre-basho is Oracle and daily is Toto.

Same here. Among the dailies Sumo Game and S4 should also be mentioned. A Yusho in one of these games makes me much more happy than a Yusho in ISP.

 

3 hours ago, Randomitsuki said:

Though I would not suggest ever changing it, I think that total correct guesses over a basho would be a better indicator of gaming prowess. It was the only game where I frequently checked for the gino-sho score, as it seems to be an even better yardstick of ability than the actual win/loss total.

To be honest, I give a sh... on all the Sanshos in the various games. The only one I'm (like Randomitsuki) really interested in is the Gino-Sho in Toto. Winning the Yusho there in May'12 was nice but keeping the pursuers at bay by full 9 points with my Gino-Sho score was really thrilling.

Ganzohnesushi

Edited January 30, 2018 by Ganzohnesushi
typo correction