Asashoryu Road to 100 Yusho update

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

Actually, I was going to say Satchel Paige or Nolan Ryan, but worried that those names might be before too many people's time...

Baseball (especially pitching) just isn't sumo. The gi and shin parts are so much more important than the tai part here while in sumo the tai part is more important, plus sumo just is physically more abusive than pitching.

[Asashosakari 20,249]

I've got to ask - in what way do you consider Nolan Ryan a better example than Roger Clemens? (Other than the obvious fact that he pitched to the age of 46.)

Edited November 28, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Peterao 3]

Nolan Ryan was throwing no-hitters at age 42 and beyond: exhibiting a dominance over the opposition to a greater extent than Roger Clemes does.

What is the difference in punishment between what Ichinoya's body absorbs and that of Asashoryu? The only difference that comes to mind is a few extra jungyo and approximately 48 extra honbasho bouts a year, about 8 minutes of actual extra fighting, the majority of which being one-sided in Asashoryu's favor. A rikishi's body is much more likely to be injured in the course of losing than in the course of winning, and Ichinoya actually loses more bouts a year than Asashoryu does.

There's no question that it is possible for Asashoryu to keep fighting up to age 42, if he desires to do so. The only question is whether or not he can be dominant for all of that time. Unfortunately, the only answer I have for this is to wait and see...

[Asashosakari 20,249]

Nolan Ryan was throwing no-hitters at age 42 and beyond: exhibiting a dominance over the opposition to a greater extent than Roger Clemes does.

Well, I didn't see him pitch besides excerpts on highlight shows, but from what I've read (and what his stat lines tell me), while he was capable of absolutely dominating individual games, he wasn't particularly consistent. I'm certainly finding it difficult to locate any extended period of time in his career that I'd classify as "dominating". That 112 career ERA+ is very good, especially given how long he pitched, but it's far from being the mark of a truly overpowering performance over an entire career, the way you're envisioning it for Asashoryu.

In other words, Nolan Ryan doesn't look like the baseball equivalent of Asashoryu, but like the baseball equivalent of Terao, though perhaps with wilder swings in performance. (Did you know that Terao has only 12 career wins less than Taiho? Nolan Ryan's a similar poster child for how longevity affects counting stats.)

Terao won a kinboshi at the ripe old age of 36, BTW. I think that's a fairly suitable counter-point to Ryan's late-career no-hitters if we're really having to go with baseball-sumo analogies. (Which I find just as inappropriate as Doitsuyama and Oimeru, to be honest, but if it's your prefered frame of reference, why not.)

What is the difference in punishment between what Ichinoya's body absorbs and that of Asashoryu?

Asashoryu has 90 highly physical bouts against the best that Ozumo has to offer, and is required to train appropriately for that level of competition. Ichinoya has 42 bouts against opposition that mainly consists of teenagers who'd be hardpressed to execute a clean oshidashi on command, and probably doesn't need to train much at all at this point. There's simply no comparison between the physical requirements of competing in sanyaku and in Jonidan. If they were in any way similar, you'd see 50 kyujo in Jonidan each basho.

There's no question that it is possible for Asashoryu to keep fighting up to age 42, if he desires to do so.

Why is there no question about that? You could have said the same thing about Takanohana in 1997, and look where that ended up at. Ichinoya can desire to fight until he's 42 because he doesn't have to uphold the yokozuna rank or indeed uphold much of anything at all other than his personal pride; Asashoryu has no such luxury.

Edited November 29, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Peterao 3]

Nolan Ryan was throwing no-hitters at age 42 and beyond: exhibiting a dominance over the opposition to a greater extent than Roger Clemes does.

Well, I didn't see him pitch besides excerpts on highlight shows, but from what I've read (and what his stat lines tell me), while he was capable of absolutely dominating individual games, he wasn't particularly consistent. I'm certainly finding it difficult to locate any extended period of time in his career that I'd classify as "dominating". That 112 career ERA+ is very good, especially given how long he pitched, but it's far from being the mark of a truly overpowering performance over an entire career, the way you're envisioning it for Asashoryu.

:-D At age 44, Ryan struck out 203 batters in 173 innings pitched. To me, that represents a significant overall level of dominance against hitters over the course of an entire season. And it is an improvement over a comparable 1975 season, where he had 186K's over 198 innings, showing he could be just as dominating at age 44 as to when he was close to Asashoryu's age.

Remember, Asashoryu doesn't have to win every match he fights. He just has to be among the best over a 15 day period. Will Asashoryu lose a single match every now and then? Of course. Will he lose more matches than others over a 15 day period? That is much less likely.

What is the difference in punishment between what Ichinoya's body absorbs and that of Asashoryu?

Asashoryu has 90 highly physical bouts against the best that Ozumo has to offer, and is required to train appropriately for that level of competition. Ichinoya has 42 bouts against opposition that mainly consists of teenagers who'd be hardpressed to execute a clean oshidashi on command, and probably doesn't need to train much at all at this point. There's simply no comparison between the physical requirements of competing in sanyaku and in Jonidan. If they were in any way similar, you'd see 50 kyujo in Jonidan each basho.

Nolan Ryan was able to keep going into his mid-40's because of his hard and strict training regimen. If anything, Asashoryu's training is an advantage for longevity over Ichinoya.

There's no question that it is possible for Asashoryu to keep fighting up to age 42, if he desires to do so.

Why is there no question about that? You could have said the same thing about Takanohana in 1997, and look where that ended up at. Ichinoya can desire to fight until he's 42 because he doesn't have to uphold the yokozuna rank or indeed uphold much of anything at all other than his personal pride; Asashoryu has no such luxury.

I'm saying there's no question that it is possible from a physical standpoint. Asashoryu's chances for 100 yusho depends on his mental ability to stay focused for such a long time, and luck in avoiding majoring injury. I believe that Asashoryu possesses the former, and am hoping that he will receive the latter.

[Asashosakari 20,249]

:-P At age 44, Ryan struck out 203 batters in 173 innings pitched. To me, that represents a significant overall level of dominance against hitters over the course of an entire season. And it is an improvement over a comparable 1975 season, where he had 186K's over 198 innings, showing he could be just as dominating at age 44 as to when he was close to Asashoryu's age.

Except that a pitcher's job is to get outs, period (and prevent runs, in the larger context), not merely to strike out batters. What good are 9+ strikeouts per nine innings if you're still giving up an amount of runs that's only a bit below the league average in between all those K's? Calling that dominance would be like saying that Asashoryu is dominant because he frequently secures a morozashi grip on his opponents, not because he ultimately wins his bouts.

So, yes, Nolan Ryan was still as good in his 40s as he was in his 20s, the only problem is that he wasn't an elite pitcher even in his 20s.

Upon sleeping a night on it, I may have been too harsh in comparing Ryan to Terao, though...he's more like Kotomitsuki with added longevity. Same consistently above-average performance, same occasional flashes of brilliance, same maddening inability to be truly elite despite excellent tools. They're both great at their respective sports, but even the current Asashoryu is about three notches above that level of performance. And the Asashoryu you're predicting is yet another couple of notches better.

Nolan Ryan was able to keep going into his mid-40's because of his hard and strict training regimen. If anything, Asashoryu's training is an advantage for longevity over Ichinoya.

That's all true, but doesn't get around the fact that top-level pitcher careers tend to be significantly longer than top-level sumo careers to begin with. As a yokozuna, if Asashoryu wasn't keeping his strict training regimen, he'd be assured of retirement before he's even 30. On the other hand, there are plenty of pitchers who were active and successful well into their mid and late 30s despite not being particularly training-crazy.

And Asashoryu's training would be a clear advantage over Ichinoya's only if they were facing the same kind of opposition. You can't just compare one aspect while ignoring another, heavily counter-vailing one.

I'm saying there's no question that it is possible from a physical standpoint.

Yes, if one assumes that Asashoryu is going to be the first rikishi in recorded history to suffer absolutely no age-related decline even absent big injuries. Okay, I suppose he could suffer some decline and still be a semi-credible yokozuna, but the road from 13-bout winner to 11-bout winner isn't that long, certainly not 15 years. And obviously your prediction doesn't involve a 42-year old yokozuna Asashoryu who coasts along at his rank winning 10 or 11 bouts per basho.

Edit: BTW, nice cherry-picking of data up there, comparing Nolan Ryan's admittedly very good 1991 season to his 1975 season (when his strikeouts per 9 IP were down by some 20% compared to each of the 3 seasons before and each of the 3 seasons after). :-P

Edited November 29, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Peterao 3]

Except that a pitcher's job is to get outs, period (and prevent runs, in the larger context), not merely to strike out batters. What good are 9+ strikeouts per nine innings if you're still giving up an amount of runs that's only a bit below the league average in between all those K's? Calling that dominance would be like saying that Asashoryu is dominant because he frequently secures a morozashi grip on his opponents, not because he ultimately wins his bouts.

The reason I must resort to comparing a baseball player to a sumo rikishi is because what I say Asashoryu is going to do is unprescedented, so I must use examples from other sports to make my point.

What Asashoryu does on the dohyo is most similar to what a pitcher does when he strikes a batter out. He is displaying a one-on-one dominance over him. Whether a pitcher wins a game or gets a batter out is dependant on the skill of the entire team...but the strikeout is mano y mano.

So, yes, Nolan Ryan was still as good in his 40s as he was in his 20s, the only problem is that he wasn't an elite pitcher even in his 20s.

He is elite in the context of striking batters out. No other pitcher in baseball history has thrown 5,714 major league strikeouts, or has even come close.

Upon sleeping a night on it, I may have been too harsh in comparing Ryan to Terao, though...he's more like Kotomitsuki with added longevity. Same consistently above-average performance, same occasional flashes of brilliance, same maddening inability to be truly elite despite excellent tools. They're both great at their respective sports, but even the current Asashoryu is about three notches above that level of performance. And the Asashoryu you're predicting is yet another couple of notches better.

You are making the wrong apples and oranges comparison. You are judging Nolan Ryan's results in a team situation. A perfectly fair comparison to make if you are talking about baseball, but I am trying to relate it to sumo. Nolan Ryan is indeed the Asashoryu of strikeouts.

Nolan Ryan was able to keep going into his mid-40's because of his hard and strict training regimen. If anything, Asashoryu's training is an advantage for longevity over Ichinoya.

That's all true, but doesn't get around the fact that top-level pitcher careers tend to be significantly longer than top-level sumo careers to begin with. As a yokozuna, if Asashoryu wasn't keeping his strict training regimen, he'd be assured of retirement before he's even 30. On the other hand, there are plenty of pitchers who were active and successful well into their mid and late 30s despite not being particularly training-crazy.

And Asashoryu's training would be a clear advantage over Ichinoya's only if they were facing the same kind of opposition. You can't just compare one aspect while ignoring another, heavily counter-vailing one.

What is the difference between a five-second Asashoryu win over Chiyotaikai and a five-second Ichinoya win over Bokebokeyama? As long as he keeps winning, there's a good chance that Asashoryu avoids injury.

I'm saying there's no question that it is possible from a physical standpoint.

Yes, if one assumes that Asashoryu is going to be the first rikishi in recorded history to suffer absolutely no age-related decline even absent big injuries. Okay, I suppose he could suffer some decline and still be a semi-credible yokozuna, but the road from 13-bout winner to 11-bout winner isn't that long, certainly not 15 years. And obviously your prediction doesn't involve a 42-year old yokozuna Asashoryu who coasts along at his rank winning 10 or 11 bouts per basho.

You need to shift your numbers a bit. I say that he will follow the road from a 15-bout winner to a 13-bout winner. And still win yushos.

Edit: BTW, nice cherry-picking of data up there, comparing Nolan Ryan's admittedly very good 1991 season to his 1975 season (when his strikeouts per 9 IP were down by some 20% compared to each of the 3 seasons before and each of the 3 seasons after). :-P

I picked the season with the closest number of innings pitched to 1991 for comparison. If you prefer a broader range to compare with, his 1.17 strikeouts per inning recorded at age 44 in 1991 is well above the 1.06 average he recorded over his entire 27 year career.

[SalParadise 0]

Nolan Ryan played for 27 years. That's a feat. When you look at players with good longevity, their rate stats are absurd, even if they were never absolutely dominant.

Look at Rafael Palmeiro and his 21 (20 listed) seasons -- 569 HRs, 3020 hits... But he was never REALLY dominating, despite that longevity.

Or Julio Franco who produced very well over his (incredibly long) career.

They ain't any Pedro Martinez or Sandy Koufax, let alone a Barry Bonds or a Ted Williams.

But really, we can discuss the baseball angle of this all day and get nowhere. Long careers result in great rate-stats, but it doesn't mean that the quality was incredible. Cy Young won an incredible 511 games (he also lost 316).

Kotonowaka had 705 Makuuchi wins! That's quite a tidy sum, better than Kaio in fact. This does not make Kaio a worse rikishi than Kotonowaka.

The point here is that Asashoryuu is on a great pace. So was Sandy Koufax. An injury can end it very quickly. Comparing a rising star with a pitcher whose best trait was longevity rather than absolute dominance is probably not the comparison you want to be making...

You should be saying, "Imagine if Sandy Koufax had kept playing until he was 46..."

[Gusoyama 104]

The reason I think that dominance in any sport over 15 years is so difficult is the extreme physical needs to stay on top. I'm trying to think of a good analogy for this, and an example of dominance over a long period of time in other sports:

Baseball: Even Ted Williams, who comes to mind as being closest to Asashoryu-type dominance, was only dominant for 10 years or so. I wouldn't consider any pitcher in this category, because pitchers only pitch once every 5 days, at best. And most of the greats wear out their arms pretty quickly, and get no where near the 12-15 years required. Pedro Martinez was pretty dominant in his time, but that time was only 5 years, tops. Injuries have since made him less than dominant. He's still damn good, but he's not vastly the best in the biz any more.

Basketball:

Bill Russell is a dominant figure, with 11 championships in 13 years, but was not as dominant individually, the team was dominant.

Wilt Chamberlain was certainly dominant, and I'd say he would be a good analogy for Asashoryu, though only statistically, he only won 2 championships in his 14 years. However, in those same 14 years, he put up some HUGE stats, including 100 points in a game.

Hockey:

Another person that comes to mind is the Great One, Wayne Gretzky. He scored over 100 points 14 out of 15 years, and holds or shares 61 NHL records. I think he's the closest to 100-yusho material, personally.

Football(american): Even greats like Montana weren't around for 14 years, but maybe he, or Barry Sanders or Walter Payton could be considered dominant, but thats still only over 10 years, not 15. Dan Marino put up great stats for nearly 15 years, but I wouldn't call him dominant.

Football(the real kind): Not well versed enough to comment here. Maybe Pele, Maradona, Beckenbauer(sp)? Guys like Ronaldinho are too young to count, yet.

Tennis: The only person that comes to mind is Federer, and he's a long way from 15 years. No one else was as dominant as he has been for the past 3+ years, and I think saying Asa is going to win 100 yusho is like saying Federer is going to win 100 grand slam events. Similar ages, similar records, similar dominance. Maybe Martina Navratilova? She was certainly dominant for a number of years. Not sure if it was 15, though.

Golf: Jack Nicklaus? Arnold Palmer? Tiger Woods hasn't been dominant for 15 years, not yet.

[rhino 0]

The clearest candidate for "100 yusho equivalent" career is Don Bradman, as far as I'm concerned. He played cricket though, so most people here won't have heard of him...

Between 1930 and 1948 he was consistently by far the best batsman in the world, and finished with a career batting average that is 65% better than any other player has ever achieved. (Bradman's average was 99.96- 2nd place is 60)

Admittedly he didn't play during WWII so maybe that counts against his longevity.

In baseball terms, a player would need a career batting average of 0.392 to match this statistically (see wikipedia article on Bradman).

As far as I'm aware no other sportsman in history has come close to that kind of domination over that time period (except maybe ozeki Raiden...!)

I don't think this is achievable in sumo though because of the likelihood of serious injury, as discussed in another thread. There is too much strain on the body to carry on at asashoryu level power for 16 years.

[SalParadise 0]

Kasparov the chess player? Not quite the same... Unless you people suffer mental injuries from chess over-exertion...

[Peterao 3]

If we want to bring this back to at least the fighting realm, Ric Flair is still winning pro wrestling titles at the age of 57. (Shaking head...)

Edited December 1, 2006 by Peterao

[Ryukaze 0]

Kasparov:

(From Wiki)

For almost all of the time from 1985 until his retirement in 2005, Kasparov had the top Elo rating in the world. His 2851 rating in the July 1999 FIDE rating list is the highest rating ever achieved. At his retirement, he was ranked first, with a rating of 2812

LOL Man now if thats not solid proof of 15+ year dominance in a physically demanding sport by one individual I don't know what is!! ha ha ha argument over!

Edited December 1, 2006 by Ryukaze

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

If you're looking for 15+ years "dominance" in a physically demanding sport, I think Gusoyama's suggestion of Martina Navratilova comes closest. Some even speculate she would have prevailed in male competition as well. Can't think of anybody else off the top of my head.

[sumofan 6]

If you're looking for 15+ years "dominance" in a physically demanding sport, I think Gusoyama's suggestion of Martina Navratilova comes closest. Some even speculate she would have prevailed in male competition as well. Can't think of anybody else off the top of my head.

Don't think so.

The Williams sisters once talked of playing against men.

A low ranked male tennis player (somewhere between 50 and 100 if my memory serves me well) took them up on it.

He went out boozing the night before the match, and still beat them both so bad that they never brought it up again.

I like women's tennis, whereas male tennis is too boring for me. it takes too long, and there is little gameplay.

But I don't think that a women would stand a chance against any male top 50 player.

[Oimeru 0]

Don't think so.

The Williams sisters once talked of playing against men.

A low ranked male tennis player (somewhere between 50 and 100 if my memory serves me well) took them up on it.

He went out boozing the night before the match, and still beat them both so bad that they never brought it up again.

I like women's tennis, whereas male tennis is too boring for me. it takes too long, and there is little gameplay.

But I don't think that a women would stand a chance against any male top 50 player.

That was Karsten "The Windmill" Braasch, ranked 203rd. See here:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/osm/story/0,,543962,00.html

[Ryukaze 0]

No one said it had to be physical and besides Kasparov is the only person I've seen mentioned in this thread with anything like 15 year domination. Just because chess isn't physical that doesn't mean the strongest always win. Nigel Short was a very strong player who was crushed by Kasparov before their title match even began. Something like Kotomitsuki against Asashoryu at this stage. Great chess players have burned out early. Mental alertness and ability is not 100% assured over anyones lifetime. Plus in chess at that level the need to constantly learn and relearn openings and variations is gruelling. Capablanca could have been so much great than he was if he hadn't been so lazy.

If you want a physical example try D. J. Carey

Hmmm so your point here then is that 15+ years of domination by one individual is possible only in a non-physical "game" like Chess???

Edited December 1, 2006 by Ryukaze

[Naganoyama 6,039]

I don't think Asashoryu will win 100 because (aside from any question about physical capabilities into older age) I don't think he will have the motivation.

Once you have beaten all the records you care about, it is hard to be interested in continuing.

So he might win 35 but what is there to make him bother after that?

[Peterao 3]

The opportunity for true sumo immortality. Once he beats Taiho, the next logical goal is 50 (35 will happen in just a little over 3 years)!. If he gets there at an early enough age, the lure of triple digits may be enough to convince him to push himself to his physical limit...which may be a more interesting challenge than anything else life has to offer him.

[Joeblack 0]

Friday, Dec. 1, 2022

Kaio Breaking the Impossible Record

Kaio will break the Cal Ripken Jr.'s record 2,632 straight bout Monday. At the age 50 years old, he frowns upon the suggestion of a retirement, "I will be a Yokozuna someday." With the record of 20 consecutive 10-5 record, Kaio has become the longest lasting zombie rikishi. He has refused dozen requests for a forced retirement. Kaio's determination to beat the current basho champion Asashoryu, who has won his 115 Makuuchi division championships with the record of 96 consecutive championships, has never wavered.

"Please retire will you? I beg you." Asashoryu expressed his frustration early today in front of media.

Kaio has been helping Asashoryu along the way when he went on the 16 years record setting winning streak. Kaio has been winning against most ozeki except Asashoryu. Last year, Asashoryu made the remarke claiming to be able to win against Kaio with two eyes blindfolded because he knew Kaio's moves so well. Japan Sumo Association will convene tomorrow to decide whether to promote Kaio to the position of honorary Yokozuna so Kaio will finally retire.

By JoeBlack

Staff writers

Edited December 1, 2006 by Joeblack

[Peterao 3]

Despite a extremely poor (for him) performance that saw him actually lose a match this tournament, Asashoryu is now 20% of the way to my prediction of 100 career yusho.

Indeed, while a 14 win yusho (his 14th win coming tomorrow) is disappointing, I believe he will bounce back from this setback to get back on track to begin a new era of dominance. I still predict Asashoryu will win all of the basho of 2007, getting him 25% of the way to my goal by the end of next year. I'm also bullish that Asashoryu will win a minimum of 17 out of the next 18 basho...and that Asashoryu will compile a 90-0 record in a calendar year by 2010.

I still believe that Asashoryu will secure his 50th yusho on or before the 2012 Nagoya Basho, but will still retire upon winning his 100th yusho in Fukuoka in 2022 at the ripe old age of 42. And that his "opposition" (for lack of a better word) will remain feeble and pathetic for the vast majority of that time.

This has been a Special Asashoryu Road to 100 Yusho Update from Chicago. See you all again in March!

[aderechelsea 125]

it's not funny .... it's worrysome.

but keep it coming man .. i am starting to love it ... (In a state of confusion...)

[Guest gounoiwa]

Whether he makes it to 100 or not, a big for the 20 milestone.

[sumofan 6]

Maybe the KK can give Asa the yusho at the start of next basho, then exclude him from the tournament and have everybody else fight for Jun-Yusho.

That way, some excitement would remain throughout the basho.

(First prize...)

[Peterao 3]

Maybe the KK can give Asa the yusho at the start of next basho, then exclude him from the tournament and have everybody else fight for Jun-Yusho.

That way, some excitement would remain throughout the basho.

(Annoyed...)

Or you could just watch Juryo if you prefer inferior excitement. (Shaking head...)