rhino

Thanks for the really interesting analysis! I have one suggestion, if I could be so bold. It seems that because the preferred indicator changes from basho to basho, you end up with a lot of variability in the expected trajectory. So bearing that in mind, I would be interested to see a moving average of what the predicted trajectories have been over the past year. I feel I haven't written that too clearly so here's a made-up example. Suppose over the course of a year Goeido's predicted career high changes as follows: 96 (Hatsu), 99 (Haru), 100 (Natsu), 99 (Nagoya), 97 (Aki), 99 (Kyushu) Then the number I would be interested in seeing is (96 + 99 + 100 + 99 + 97 + 99)/6 which might give a more stable and perhaps more accurate prediction for higher-ranking rikishi. Obviously with rikishi who have had short careers this might actually make matters worse because the earlier predictions will be based on less informative data. Anyway thanks a lot, I'm impressed by your hit-rate below Makushita.

I was there today - as I recall he was pushed to the tawara and there was plenty of back and forth before he eventually prevailed in improbable style. The crowd was in raptures! Nothing else provoked as much cheering until Kotomitsuki won his bout. Unfortunately I forgot to bring my camera (Clapping wildly...) *off-topic musings ahead* Other highlights included a great tsuri (can't remember by who) in makushita and a wonderful staredown between Asa and Toyohibiki. Fukuoka was lucky to escape with a win when already dead and buried, falling off the dohyo. Fukao was in total control, very convincing. Hochiyama seems to have totally lost it. I was also lucky enough to attend yesterday. Kyokushuho showed plenty of fighting spirit, in case anyone was afraid he'd stopped caring. He didn't quite dominate the match though. I was upset to see Takanoyama blasted off the dohyo, he really needs more weight. Ikioi seems to be recovering from whatever went wrong in his mind/body, he looked very good to me. Yoshikaze vs Shotenro was fantastic, comedy mono-ii aside. I am a big Yoshi fan though so perhaps I'm biased. Sadly my time in Nagoya is now up - I wish they could hold a basho in London every year! (maybe they could drop the Fukuoka basho, nobody turns up anyway) *end of musings*

Try Katayama. Now sadly in Makushita, so his incredible shiko can only be seen 7 times per basho.

Kotonowaka vs Kotonowaka's son springs to mind. That isn't exactly the same kind of thing though.

Wow, I had no idea. Shows how much I know! Anyway clearly there has to be a line. It should be clear enough that if I'm shocked by Toyozakura battering a deshi with a pan, I am also shocked by this kind of stuff and would hope not to be interpreted as endorsing it. I am not so shocked by Shikoroyama or Magaki oyakata dispensing whacks to rikishi's backsides at keiko. Maybe that makes me some sort of maniac but I doubt I'm the only one who thinks there's a difference. Edit: maybe you interpreted me as being in favour of abuse of junior rikishi. Short answer: I'm not.

I find it unbelievable that the Magaki oyakata is being punished potentially more harshly than Toyozakura and Michinoku. Hitting someone with a cane might be considered violent, but it is not in the same league as cutting someone's head open by beating them with heavy objects. If it was up to me (which, perhaps luckily, it isn't) I would put Toyozakura and his oyakata on enforced kyujo for a couple of tournaments at least. I understand that it's because Magaki is a riji, but it just seems wrong to me. I'm not even sure that canes should be banned. I recall reading an interview on here where Kotonowaka and ex-Kotozakura actually waxed nostalgic about the "tough love" they were given on their way up the ranks. This is a legitimate part of sumo in my opinion.

I can see your point but I think the advantages of a double-digit performance outweigh the likely implosion next basho. There's the chance of a sansho, which is worth a handy 2000000 yen. Then there's the hoshokin factor: alternating 10-5/5-10 records will score you an average of 1.25 yen-points per basho. 8-7 every time gets you just 0.5. Of course you also get to fight for more kensho higher up the banzuke. More importantly though, I think the major disadvantage of the meatgrinder - that you have to fight all the sanyaku - is actually the biggest reason a rikishi would want to be in it. Witness Toyonoshima saying that he was hoping to stay in the yusho race to be able to face the yokozuna and ozeki. If you're down at M10, you probably won't get the chance to spectacularly upset a yokozuna even if you're very genki. Finally, making komusubi at least once is a very good thing for any rikishi, because it entitles them to become an oyakata even if their overall sekitori career is not long. Certainly if I was a rikishi sitting at 9-5 on day 15 around M7, I would want to convert it to double digits! Concession to staying OT: Even Taiho had his fair share of bashos at 11-4 or lower so it seems unreasonable to say that an odd 11-4 basho is failing as a yokozuna. As long as they're regularly threatening to yusho, I'm happy!

I think this is an innovative and interesting statistic that Mark has discovered, so I thought it would be interesting to apply it to the other yokozuna of recent days. I have counted the number of basho, at ozeki or higher, in which another yokozuna fought to the end, for several recent luminaries. Health warning: I did this by hand, so there could well be errors. Here are the stats: Asashoryu: Bashos with other yokozuna fighting to the end: 6 Victores in these bashos: 2 Hit rate: 0.33 Verdict: weak (going by Mark's benchmarking) Hakuho: B: 9 V: 3 Hit rate: 0.33 Verdict: weak Mushashimaru: B: 38 V: 7 Hit rate: 0.18 Verdict: very weak Takanohana: B: 37 V: 16 Hit rate: 0.43 Verdict: pretty weak, not dominating by any stretch Akebono: B: 25 V: 4 Hit rate: 0.16 Verdict: very weak Wakanohana: B: 27 V: 4 Hit rate: 0.15 Verdict: very weak, but similar in strength to Akebono and Musashimaru. So there you have it. There have been no really strong yokozuna recently. The closest was Taka but he never really dominated. Akebono and Musashimaru were practically embarassing and certainly not much stronger than Wakanohana. It has been a sad 15 years for sumo!

Semi-wild guess: Obtained every score from 1-14 to 13-2 (without going kyujo) while ranked as maegashira. Any good?

Since my first exposure to sumo was Nagoya 2005, of which Kotooshu was the star, I am still something of a fan. Already when he was 4-0 I noticed it was, amazingly, his best start since his heroics at sekiwake nearly 3 years ago. However I refrained from posting for fear of (a) jinxing him and (b) looking stupid! Anyway he seems to be getting the vast majority of his wins by moving forwards instead of his usual uwatenage. If he can resist the lure of uwatenage he might even be able to beat Toyonoshima if they meet up, instead of succumbing to the inevitable shitatenage counter (according to the incredible database, Kotooshu's percentage of losses by shitatenage is 3 times higher than average!) Hakuho and Asashoryu are another matter though, so I'm hoping for 13-2 at best, realistically 12-3 or 11-4 unless something really amazing has happened. But then never underestimate the power of cheese...!

Closest thing now are the three from Sadogatake. True. Well, here are the numbers for today vs our two "winning" banzuke: Today: 10 sanyaku = 45 potential internal fights Subtract 3 for the Sadogatake boys = 42 Aki 98: 9 sanyaku = 36 potential internal fights Subtract 6 for Futagoyama, 3 for Musashigawa = 27 Hatsu 98: 9 sanyaku = 36 potential internals Subtract 3 for Futagoyama, 1 for Musashigawa = 32 Seems like a reasonably big difference but maybe more related to the number of sanyaku than heya pairings.

It's not too surprising that 1998 is the only modern year that this happened, since at the time there were unusually huge numbers of heya-mates in sanyaku. In Aki you had Takanohana, Wakanohana, Takanonami and Takatoriki all Futagoyama; and Musashimaru, Dejima and Musoyama all Musashigawa. In Hatsu there are not so many, but the presence of Taktoriki, Akinoshima and Dejima (Futagoyama, Futagoyama and Musashigawa respectively) in the meatgrinder would still mean that the sanyaku got handed lower-ranked opposition than you would normally expect. Nowadays there is no Futagoyama-style stable filling up the top of the banzuke, so most of the sanyaku will fight each other, and this is less likely to happen. Interesting question though!

The information is good, and so is the format. Thanks for putting information in the headers- as I said before I think that's great.

This may just be me, since I'm pretty new to sumo (2 years now), but I've been having surprisingly mixed feelings about this new challenge to Asashoryu's supremacy. The whole time I've been watching sumo, I've wanted Asashoryu to lose in virtually every bout he's fought, and I've been dying to see a second yokozuna on the banzuke. But now suddenly, when he looks fallible and doesn't always fight the musubi-no-ichiban, it just feels wrong! I find myself longing for the indestructible Asashoryu who win tournaments so easily it was boring. I miss the sheer awesomeness that seemed to cause his opponents to melt down before they even started fighting. What the hell is going on when Aminishiki beats him twice in a row? What does Hakuho think he's doing fighting last? Why am I no longer shocked when he loses? So from wanting Asashoryu to lose at every turn, I now want to see him kick the crap out of everyone, like the "good old days". Everyone except Kotomitsuki, that is- SURELY he can beat Asashoryu one of these days! On the other hand, this is probably just because Asa is the only yokozuna I've ever known "first-hand". Also, it's pretty awesome having a shiranui yokozuna who might actually win a lot of yusho. And also, Asa might still be injured, so here's hoping for a return to form. (Dohyo-iri...) (Dohyo-iri...)

Seeing Kotomitsuki and Kotooshu ahead of Asashoryu in the kensho count is really bizarre! Asashoryu obviously forgot about lost kensho money when he threw that match against Hakuho (just kidding, before anyone tries to kill me). Thanks a bunch for running this- I always find it interesting.