Asashoryu Road to 100 Yusho update

[Shibouyama 1]

This thread is really fun and enjoyable.

Thanks Peterao!

(In a state of confusion...)

[Afrozuna 8]

You must stop this 100 Basho madness immediatley. It is bringing a bad name to all fans of the Yokozuna

[Peterao 3]

Wow...I have that kind of power? If so, this means I must redouble my efforts to spread the news that this is the dawning of the Age of Asashoryu.

[Asashosakari 20,243]

Wow...I have that kind of power? If so, this means I must redouble my efforts

200 yusho?

[Peterao 3]

No...100 yusho, but being twice as loud about it.

[Jonosuke 28]

Obviously he should have no trouble overtaking Takanohana or even Kitaoumi but not sure about Chiyonofuji or Taiho.

I know Pete, you cannot be serious about this 100 yushos but it's kind of fun wondering how close he can get to even half that number.

You and I go a long way back in Usenet days but I never imagine myself discussing with you about someone getting 100 yushos back then...but then I got hit by some daemon more than a few times in my life and know about your dohyo debut :-)

Edited November 26, 2006 by Jonosuke

[Peterao 3]

Indeed, I've known of you for many years, and I know that you have a great deal more sumo knowledge than I will ever have (though I have won more awards for my sumo than you ever will. (Neener, neener...) )

Nonetheless, I am totally serious about 100 yusho. I will sincerely be disappointed if he chooses to end his career with only 99, let alone fewer.

Let me try and explain myself once more. I realize that this is completely absurd when compared against thousands of years of sumo history. But I also believe that we are in a time that is completely different from all others. I believe that Japanese culture has changed to the point where a strong yokozuna cannot be raised. All of the other strong rikishi from the old guard are fading away, the Kyokai is not allowing enough rikishi of foreign influence to enter sumo. And even if they did, Asashoryu is still improving, and has such a head start on all of them that he will never allow them to catch up.

Asashoryu may not be the strongest rikishi of all time, but he is the beneficiary of the perfect set of circumstances that has separated him by a quantum leap from the rest of the sumo world. Like a teenage Superman, he is only beginning to learn his true abilities, and the fact that those around him do not have them. And I believe he will come to realize that he has the ability to set records that can never be touched by anyone ever again.

Sadly, it will take at least another five years for anyone else to see things that way...but I truly believe that we are in for an era of dominance the likes of which sumo has never, ever seen before. (Dohyo-iri...)

[Fukurou 534]

(Dohyo-iri...) (Neener, neener...) ho hum... another 15-0 tournament for the Yokozuna, with Homasho trying to hang close at 12-3 and no one else closer than 10-5. At this rate, I'm starting to believe in 50 wins as being quite possible.

[kotooshu_bulgaria 0]

With the rising Japanese stars Kisenosato and Homasho, the Estonian giant Baruto, and the young ozeki Hakuho and Kotooshu, plus I have high expectations about Wakanoho as well, I am not so sure about even 30, not to mention 100. We shall see next year, it will show us whether Asashoryu is capable of overcoming all the yusho records.

Edited November 26, 2006 by kotooshu_bulgaria

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

Well, if this matter is really intended to be discussed seriously: I just might be inclined to think about 50 yusho as a far remote possibility - but 100? That's not only twice as much, it's the transition from improbable to impossible.

Edited November 26, 2006 by Jakusotsu

[Otokonoyama 2,735]

Was there a lot of complaining in the days of Chiyonofuji's dominance? I only know his sumo through books, video & DVD. And I'm far too young to have watched the great Taiho. I wonder if this is just another case of history repeating itself...

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

Well, it doesn't say much about dominance, but Taiho and Chiyonofuji at least weren't the only yokozuna at their time.

[s0101 0]

I smell a bet. I offer my better kidney and the hand of my eldest daughter, although still unborn and very likely to stay such so you'll have to content yourself with my kidney.

(I am not worthy...)

Go for it Peterao, what would you lose except your pride & Asa's 99th career yusho poster on your wall.

Well, it doesn't say much about dominance, but Taiho and Chiyonofuji at least weren't the only yokozuna at their time.

Perhaps being a sole yokozuna says it all, his dominant. There would have been more yokozunas in Kiao, Tochizuma..e.g, if he let them in.

[Ryukaze 0]

Zensho yusho for the next 13 1/2 years will get him there, (at the ripe old age of 39) Yeah it can happen! (Sign of disapproval) Giving up even just one yusho during each of those years will tack on another 2+ years to his career however till he reaches 100, and put him at 41 yrs old (when is the last time any rikishi has faught to that age at the top level of competition?) This is all even assuming that things stay the same in the sumo world as they are now....

When all is said and done I believe he will far surpass all previous records for Yusho/wins, yet I don't see him surpassing Futabayama's 69 straight.

[Bishonohana 0]

If anyone could do it, then Asa is the man... (Applauding...) I'll look forward to seeing the 100th Yusho presented to the Great Yokozuna! ;-) (Laughing...)

[Asashosakari 20,243]

Perhaps being a sole yokozuna says it all, his dominant. There would have been more yokozunas in Kiao, Tochizuma..e.g, if he let them in.

If they still used the same relaxed promotion criteria they did back in Taiho's and Chiyonofuji's eras, we'd probably have had yokozunas Kaio and Tochiazuma by now (quite possibly retired already) and we'd currently have a yokozuna Hakuho. Asashoryu isn't the only one responsible for there being no other yokozuna right now.

[s0101 0]

If they still used the same relaxed promotion criteria they did back in Taiho's and Chiyonofuji's eras, we'd probably have had yokozunas Kaio and Tochiazuma by now (quite possibly retired already) and we'd currently have a yokozuna Hakuho. Asashoryu isn't the only one responsible for there being no other yokozuna right now.

Good to know, so how would one get promoted to yokozuna by that criteria?

[Asashosakari 20,243]

If they still used the same relaxed promotion criteria they did back in Taiho's and Chiyonofuji's eras, we'd probably have had yokozunas Kaio and Tochiazuma by now (quite possibly retired already) and we'd currently have a yokozuna Hakuho. Asashoryu isn't the only one responsible for there being no other yokozuna right now.

Good to know, so how would one get promoted to yokozuna by that criteria?

I don't think there was any fixed one. If it "felt" right, they did it. Take, for instance, Kashiwado getting promoted in the same basho that Taiho earned his promotion (the latter did it with 2 consecutive yusho). Kashiwado's ozeki career up to that point had looked like this:

O1w 12-3J

O1e 11-4

O1w 13-2Y

O1e 12-3J

O1e 10-5

O1w 11-4

O1w 12-3J (playoff loss)

Certainly a very respectable and steady performance, but especially those last three tournaments aren't any better than what's asked of potential Ozeki promotion candidates today, let alone a Yokozuna candidate. I'm far from a historical buff on matters sumo, but I think it's pretty clear that the Taiho-Kashiwado rivalry played a fairly large part in the decision to promote Kashiwado at that particular point in time.

Edited November 27, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,243]

I was searching for something completely different, but I just came across this excellent translation by Hananotaka of an equally excellent Ozumo Magazine article from earlier this year, which goes a lot deeper into that whole "promotion used to be easier" issue. Highly recommended (re-)reading. (Applauding...)

Edited November 27, 2006 by Asashosakari

[Peterao 3]

To all who doubt my claim (ie, everyone), does anyone have an argument regarding why 100 yusho is not possible that is not a variant of "because nobody has ever done X before"? Fighting to 42 years of age is not impossible (thanks Ichinoya for providing proof of that), being dominant at 42 years of age is not impossible (thanks Roger Clemens for providing proof of that), so why is it impossible to be dominant in sumo up to 42 years of age?

[Asashosakari 20,243]

To all who doubt my claim (ie, everyone), does anyone have an argument regarding why 100 yusho is not possible that is not a variant of "because nobody has ever done X before"? Fighting to 42 years of age is not impossible (thanks Ichinoya for providing proof of that), being dominant at 42 years of age is not impossible (thanks Roger Clemens for providing proof of that), so why is it impossible to be dominant in sumo up to 42 years of age?

Ichinoya's highest rank was Sandanme 6, nowadays he's barely staying out of Jonokuchi. If that's part of the evidence that you're applying toward Asashoryu, then yeah, I agree: Asashoryu just might turn out be a very good Juryo rikishi at the age of 42.

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

To all who doubt my claim (ie, everyone), does anyone have an argument regarding why 100 yusho is not possible that is not a variant of "because nobody has ever done X before"? Fighting to 42 years of age is not impossible (thanks Ichinoya for providing proof of that), being dominant at 42 years of age is not impossible (thanks Roger Clemens for providing proof of that), so why is it impossible to be dominant in sumo up to 42 years of age?

Ichinoya's highest rank was Sandanme 6, nowadays he's barely staying out of Jonokuchi. If that's part of the evidence that you're applying toward Asashoryu, then yeah, I agree: Asashoryu just might turn out be a very good Juryo rikishi at the age of 42.

Hey, Peterao didn't say that Ichinoya stayed at the same strength. That was reserved for Roger Clemens, who, crossed with Ichinoya, is Asashoryu at 42. Now this sounds like perfect logic to me...

[Oimeru 0]

Hey, Peterao didn't say that Ichinoya stayed at the same strength. That was reserved for Roger Clemens, who, crossed with Ichinoya, is Asashoryu at 42. Now this sounds like perfect logic to me...

Especially considering the overwhelming similarity between baseball and sumo. Charlie Hough was still playing at major league level aged 46 -- how many 46-year old makuuchi rikishi were there?

[Asashosakari 20,243]

Especially considering the overwhelming similarity between baseball and sumo. Charlie Hough was still playing at major league level aged 46 -- how many 46-year old makuuchi rikishi were there?

And more than that, in the 11 years after his age 32 season (1995) even the aforementioned Roger Clemens has had maybe four and a half seasons that I'd classify as excellent or dominating. And the last two and a half dominating seasons were spent pitching primarily against the currently weakest division in baseball (I can say that; I'm a Brewers fan). Well, that's perhaps an unintentional parallel to Asashoryu...

Anyway, Peterao's calculation expects Asashoryu to win 5 out of 6 yusho in each of the next 16 years. I'd say Roger Clemens is kind of a weak example for that level of dominance...you really need a much better baseball player for that purpose. (I'm being sarcastic, before anyone accuses me of ragging on Clemens.)

Well, maybe Asashoryu can win an average of just 3 yusho per year and instead keep going until he's 53.

[Peterao 3]

Actually, I was going to say Satchel Paige or Nolan Ryan, but worried that those names might be before too many people's time...