Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Asashosakari 20,223]

32 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

If I'm right, that creates a substantial difference between Ura in 2024 and Takayasu in May. We were blown away with the Nishikifuji/Hokutofuji situation, but half-rank drops on 6-9 were merely uncommon. Had Ura been K1e instead of K1w, I don't think precedent would have convinced us to drop Ura out of the san'yaku in favor of Nishikgi; I think most of us would have predicted him to drop to just K1w. And I think we'd have been correct.

I'm pretty sure almost no top player would have chosen Ura regardless, just like none of them/us picked Takayasu. And personally speaking, I hope we never get to see any lower sanyaku hold rank on 6 wins again. I'll take any Nishikigi-type promotion over that any day of the week. You failed, make room for another guy to have a crack at it.

Edited Sunday at 00:20 by Asashosakari

[Oskanohana 361]

You guys are forgetting that, with his makekoshi, Takayasu only goes kadoban. To go down to maegashira he has to have a makekoshi the next tournament too.

[Reonito 1,773]

19 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

And personally speaking, I hope we never get to see any lower sanyaku hold rank on 6 wins again. I'll take any Nishikigi-type promotion over that any day of the week. You failed, make room for another guy to have a crack at it.

Similarly for the last guy in Makuuchi (or Juryo) hanging on with a 6-9. Like I said, the sooner this crew turns over, the better! 

[Tigerboy1966 1,625]

Juryo to maku'uchi promotion candidates in rank order after day 15:

The numbers indicate the "by the numbers" rank with 42 being the bottom rung of maku'uchi.

• Nishikifui (34)
• Oshoumi (38)
• Chiyoshoma (40)
• Fujiseiun & Asahakuryu (42)

With only three clear cases for demotion it's going be "bad luck, try again" for Fujiseiun and Asahakuryu.

The actual ranks are always a bit lower of course.

The maku'uchi to juryo relegation queue, on the same principles, looks like this:

• Meisei (42)
• Hitoshi (43)
• Takerufuji (60)
• Nishikigi (61)  

There is a tiny chance that they could keep Hitoshi over Chiyoshoma, but I can't see that happening

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 07:03 by Tigerboy1966
expanded

[Kishinoyama 623]

The two Sekiwake are going down. You have Aonishiki and Oho who should take their places. Hakuoho should occupy one Komusubi slot. Is Takayasu going to West Komusubi from East Komusubi with the 7-8? Their are candidates to take his place. Takanosho being the first one that comes to mind. Normally, I would say that will be what happens but after the Takayasu 6-9 to stay at Komusubi.... 

[Gurowake 4,149]

So I assumed that Goshima was a Takekuma guy based on the Go-, not having looked at the kanji, but it turns out it's just his surname, which is relatively rare.  Rare enough that he was the first person mentioned in the AI Google results when I tried to look up its rank among Japanese surnames, and the AI was like "I dunno, it's rare though".  Maybe that's a product of me having a lot of sumo in my web and search history, but who knows?

[Gurowake 4,149]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

There is a tiny chance that they could keep Hitoshi over Chiyoshoma, but I can't see that happening

Sure, there's also a tiny chance that they promote the two extra Juryo guys and demote Meisei and Asakoryu, just because they love being unpredictable.  Those seem way more likely than keeping Hitoshi over Chiyoshoma; I'd say it would be more reasonable to suggest if Chiyoshoma were J3 and not J2.  None of these are really worth considering; I think the only real uncertain factor here is Meisei being overdemoted for Fujiseiun or Asahakuryu, and either promotion makes some sense. They have an aversion to promoting people from deep in Juryo, so Asahakuryu is likely not really a consideration.  It's unlikely that they do either though because it's extremely rare to overdemote from Makuuchi, and requires a Juryo rank/record that is way more compelling than what we have.

Edited Sunday at 15:59 by Gurowake

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

4 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

The two Sekiwake are going down. You have Aonishiki and Oho who should take their places. Hakuoho should occupy one Komusubi slot. Is Takayasu going to West Komusubi from East Komusubi with the 7-8? Their are candidates to take his place. Takanosho being the first one that comes to mind. Normally, I would say that will be what happens but after the Takayasu 6-9 to stay at Komusubi.... 

Takanosho is going to K1e. The question is Takayasu v. Hakuoho. The most recent 7-8 K1e vs. 8-7 M2e situations I could find were 18 and 21 years ago, which is realistically too old to be relevant. Even then, they split between the K1e going to K1w and the M2e bumping him. So it's basically vibes here.

[rokudenashi 342]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

So I assumed that Goshima was a Takekuma guy based on the Go-, not having looked at the kanji, but it turns out it's just his surname, which is relatively rare.  Rare enough that he was the first person mentioned in the AI Google results when I tried to look up its rank among Japanese surnames, and the AI was like "I dunno, it's rare though".  Maybe that's a product of me having a lot of sumo in my web and search history, but who knows?

Around 13,000 people in the country named 五島 according to this site, albeit there are 3 different readings for it.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Day 15

               Rank  W-L    calcs to   queue
Endo           J3e   kyujo    Ms4e      2nd
Miyanokaze  L  J10w  3-12     Ms5w      1st
Takarafuji  L  J12e  5-10     Ms3e      3rd
Kyokukaiyu  L  J13e  6-9      Ms2e      4th
Shiden      L  J14e  7-8      Ms1e      5th

Kitanowaka     Ms1w  5-2      J12w      1st
Takakento      Ms2e  4-3      Ms1e      5th
Nagamura       Ms2w  5-2      J13w      2nd
Otsuji         Ms3e  4-3      Ms2e      6th
Wakanosho   W  Ms3w  5-2      J14w      4th
Goshima     W  Ms5w  6-1      J14w      3rd

Complete wipeout in juryo, so we now have the maximum possible number of demotable rikishi that was still feasible going into senshuraku. There will be no doubts about the promotions for Wakanosho and Goshima after their respective victories over Takarafuji and Kyokukaiyu, but Shiden versus Takakento is a different matter. (It shouldn't be, but it is.) Otsuji is definitely not moving up.

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff         Up Queue
Miyanokaze  J10w  3-12     5.0   <   9+3 = 12   Kitanowaka  Ms1w  5-2
Endo        J3e   0-0-15  13.5   <  15+3 = 18   Nagamura    Ms2w  5-2
Takarafuji  J12e  5-10     7.5   <   5+5 = 10   Goshima     Ms5w  6-1
Kyokukaiyu  J13e  6-9      4.5   <   3+3 =  6   Wakanosho   Ms3w  5-2
Shiden      J14e  7-8      2.0  ===  1+1 =  2   Takakento   Ms2e  4-3
(none)                                          Otsuji      Ms3e  4-3

We've had two cases of exact ties in the period of time during which they have become strict about handling promotions from makushita to juryo, which went opposite ways.

2023.01: J10w Terutsuyoshi (5-10) dropped for Ms2w Tokushoryu (4-3)
2025.05: J13e Miyanokaze (6-9) kept over Ms5e Kyokukaiyu (5-2)

Some tea leaf reading:

• Terutsuyoshi lost his last match to a makushita opponent (not Tokushoryu), Miyanokaze also lost to a makushita opponent (not Kyokukaiyu).
• Neither promotion contender was up in juryo for his last match; Tokushoryu lost to his makushita opponent, Kyokukaiyu beat him.
• Their overall records against the other division were: Terutsuyoshi 0-1, Tokushoryu 0-1, Miyanokaze 2-1, Kyokukaiyu 1-0.
• Tokushoryu was a long-time sekitori veteran bouncing back up, Kyokukaiyu would have been a complete newcomer.
• Tokushoryu was comparatively high-ranked in makushita, Kyokukaiyu was just barely in the top 5 zone (and for the very first time, too).
• Terutsuyoshi was a more or less sekitori veteran engaged in freefall (fifth straight MK), Miyanokaze had just made his juryo debut.

I'm tempted to conclude that Shiden/Takakento is a lot more like Terutsuyoshi/Tokushoryu than it is like the situation from four months ago. Neither Shiden nor Takakento have massive experience in the paid ranks (15 and 14 basho respectively), but they're certainly both quite far from where Miyanokaze (rookie who might be seen as deserving a second shot) and Kyokukaiyu (would-be rookie who hasn't proven much yet) were. Takakento also has the high-ish rank like Tokushoryu did, and even had a top 5 KK last basho already (Ms5w 4-3, not that this constituted a serious promotion case for him). Nevertheless, the case that favoured the makushita contender is also the quite a bit older one, and we arguably have seen them get even more lenient to makekoshi records over the last two or so years.

Before I started typing out this post I was fairly convinced that Takakento would be getting promoted, but now I'm not so sure anymore. Does Otsuji's nearby presence with the same record hurt Takakento? It looks like a situation to me where a "4-3's just weren't good enough this time" argument might be easy to make. And perhaps the cross-division results might actually matter this time? Shiden won (against Otsuji), Takakento lost (against Kyokukaiyu).

51/49 in favour of Shiden for me.

[Reonito 1,773]

Final sanyaku demotion order: S1w Kirishima (6-9), S1e Wakatakakage (6-9), K1e Takayasu (7-8).

Final sanyaku promotion order: K1w Aonishiki (11-4), M2w Oho (10-5), M7e Takanosho (12-3), M2e Hakuoho (8-7).

Aonishiki (11-3) will take S1e, which presumably puts him in position for a proper Ozeki run at Kyushu. S1w will go to Oho,  with Takanosho taking K1e.

The candidates for K1w are Takayasu and Hakuoho, and I have no idea what they'll do here.

(I'm not sure if it's worth even raising the possibility of Hakuoho taking precedence over Takanosho; the 4 extra wins should easily overcome the five-rank difference, Takanosho has prior sanyaku experience, and his schedule didn't end up nearly as easy as his rank would suggest).

[Reonito 1,773]

Final Juryo demotion order: Miyanokaze, Endo, Takarafuji, J13e Kyokukaiyu (6-9), J14e Shiden (7-8).

Final Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka, Nagamura, Wakanosho, Goshima, Ms2e Takakento (4-3).

Asashoryu already covered this in great detail. It probably comes down to a coin flip between Shiden and Takakento. It's pretty hit or miss whether 7-8 from J14e results in demotion, though it's been less common recently. Amusingly, none other than Takakento was on each side of that decision in consecutive basho three years ago. It's less common but far from unheard of for a 4-3 Ms2e to get stuck in Makushita. Of course, this doesn't tell us how these two results are likely to fare head-to-head.

I didn't bold Kyokukaiyu because it occurred to me that if they decide to limit the promotions to the four clear ones, they could get the math wrong and drop Shiden instead of him, because keeping someone from J13 looks less bad than doing so from the bottom rank. I could see this being more of a consideration if Shiden was on the west side.

Edited Sunday at 20:36 by Reonito

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

10 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Aonishiki (11-3) will take S1e, which presumably puts him in position for a proper Ozeki run at Kyushu

Watch him getting snubbed again if he gets "only" 11 wins again.

[Reonito 1,773]

Final Makuuchi demotion order: Nishikigi, Takerufuji, M17w Hitoshi (7-8), M13e Meisei (5-10).

Final Juryo promotion order: Nishikifuji, Oshoumi, J2w Chiyoshoma (9-6), J5w Fujiseiun (10-5), J11w Asahakuryu (13-2).

As discussed at some length up-thread, the exchange of Hitoshi and Chiyoshoma is highly likely, and any other exchanges are highly unlikely.

[Reonito 1,773]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Watch him getting snubbed again if he gets "only" 11 wins again.

Yeah, that wouldn't shock me. M1 11-4, K 11-4, S 11-4, "do it again, kid." They snubbed Takakeisho after K 9-6, K 13-2 Y, S 11-4 J.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

56 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Final Makuuchi demotion order: Nishikigi, Takerufuji, M17w Hitoshi (7-8), M13e Meisei (5-10).

Final Juryo promotion order: Nishikifuji, Oshoumi, J2w Chiyoshoma (9-6), J5w Fujiseiun (10-5), J11w Asahakuryu (13-2).

As discussed at some length up-thread, the exchange of Hitoshi and Chiyoshoma is highly likely, and any other exchanges are highly unlikely.

What would be funny is if they decided to use their Day 15 head-to-head result as justification for dropping Meisei instead of Hitoshi; their rank/record combinations are close enough that it would not be outrageous. (Or even to drop Meisei as well as Hitoshi, given the availability of credible promotion candidates.) But yeah, overdemotions from maegashira ranks are basically not a thing in the current "we be nice to all MK" approach, so "highly unlikely" is probably correct.

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

Yeah, that wouldn't shock me. M1 11-4, K 11-4, S 11-4, "do it again, kid." They snubbed Takakeisho after K 9-6, K 13-2 Y, S 11-4 J.

Mentioned this on the RTY discord, and it's probably worth saying here: Aonishiki's popular enough that the news of "his ozeki run just started" strikes me as less hard fact and more a desire to defuse any potential fan backlash, should they start believing he'll make ozeki with eleven wins next basho and then he's denied. 12+ seems like it has to get him there, if only because their lone ozeki now has another knee injury and nobody else is even within telescope range of the rank. 

Edit: I do agree another eleven probably won't do it unless the JSA can spin it as "very impressive" or whatever. They've given themselves leeway, but also painted themselves in a corner with respect to getting him promoted—if the promote him on a basic 33 in 3, the question will be raised as to why they said his ozeki run only started in September.

Edited Monday at 03:12 by Sumo Spiffy

[Heather82Cs 11]

15 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Mentioned this on the RTY discord, and it's probably worth saying here: Aonishiki's popular enough that the news of "his ozeki run just started" strikes me as less hard fact and more a desire to defuse any potential fan backlash, should they start believing he'll make ozeki with eleven wins next basho and then he's denied. 12+ seems like it has to get him there, if only because their lone ozeki now has another knee injury and nobody else is even within telescope range of the rank. 

Edit: I do agree another eleven probably won't do it unless the JSA can spin it as "very impressive" or whatever. They've given themselves leeway, but also painted themselves in a corner with respect to getting him promoted—if the promote him on a basic 33 in 3, the question will be raised as to why they said his ozeki run only started in September.

I watched your video earlier today with literal jaw drops, and mostly horror. I'm half convinced I don't even want to try GTB this time. Almost nothing makes any sense to me...

[Reonito 1,773]

Top of Juryo looks "fun." Five guys deserve to be J1 or better.

[I am the Yokozuna 221]

Anyone trying to predict how upper makushita would like for the next tournament? much appreciated in advance

[dingo 1,477]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Edit: I do agree another eleven probably won't do it unless the JSA can spin it as "very impressive" or whatever. They've given themselves leeway, but also painted themselves in a corner with respect to getting him promoted—if the promote him on a basic 33 in 3, the question will be raised as to why they said his ozeki run only started in September.

I wonder if 11 wins with beating one yokozuna (take your pick, I don't know which one) would be considered impressive enough? 

[Asashosakari 20,223]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Edit: I do agree another eleven probably won't do it unless the JSA can spin it as "very impressive" or whatever. They've given themselves leeway, but also painted themselves in a corner with respect to getting him promoted—if the promote him on a basic 33 in 3, the question will be raised as to why they said his ozeki run only started in September.

Everyone's typically too busy talking/writing about the impending promotion to question anything that had been said earlier, so I can't imagine it's going to be much of a talking point if it happens.

[Reonito 1,773]

8 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Anyone trying to predict how upper makushita would like for the next tournament? much appreciated in advance

Here's where I am with Ms1-Ms5, not going to try to order them:

7-0 Ms20 Shimazuumi

6-1 Ms15 Dewanoryu

5-2 Ms10e Seihakuho, Ms10w Inami

4-3 Ms7e Kazuto, Ms8w Yoshii

4-3 Ms2e Takakento, Ms3e Otsuji (you can replace Takakento with Shiden if they swap them)

Juryo demotions Kyokukaiyu, Takarafuji, Endo, Miyanokaze

The eight guys in bold are locks I think. With 10 spots available, Yoshii won't make it. That leaves two spots for three guys: Dewanoryu, Inami, Miyanokaze. Maybe they leave out Inami?

There are others here who know this better than I do, so maybe @Asashosakari or @Oskanohana will chime in.

[hypnoowl 24]

Daiamami will most likely stay too. Of the three Dewanoryu perhaps has the best claim on the remaining spot. As a side note Kamito's three 5-2 at ms10w/2-5 at ms4 records in a row are very amusing.

[Gurowake 4,149]

I'm going to expect that Aonishiki will need 13 wins in Kyushu to seal the promotion absent any other strong indicators.  First, his run starts as a Maegashira, which I generally discount at one win per rank below sanyaku.  At one point I had research to back this up, at least approximately, but that would have been a long time ago and a lot of things have happened since then.  The second is that he's still relatively new/young, much like Takakeisho.  On a marginal promotion, they are going to want to see if he can keep it up.  If he can manage double digits in Kyushu and Hatsu, as long as one of them is at least 11 wins, that should be enough, ala Asanoyama, but it's hard to account for the xenophobia factor.