Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Fashiritētā 210]

Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

We are overthinking it a bit. It was probably just "Aonishiki is too young/unproven/whatever, how do we keep him in Maegashira ranks?" - "This is the way" - "Great! More sake?"

More Sake does help the weird decisions get made.

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

There almost certainly is some "space" in between the Sekiwake and Komusubi ranks when it comes to demoting them, and similarly there is generally space between M1 and Komusubi, so I don't think saying that Oho with a 9-6 puts him "mathematically" at Sekiwake.  The only real dividing line tends to be whether there are enough wins for the promotion to sanyaku when dealing with whether to demote a sanyaku at 7-8.  As mentioned above, the keeping of 6-9 Takayasu should only be seen as precedent for the steps they'll take to keep out of sanyaku a rikishi without sanyaku experience or a slam-dunk sanyaku promotion-worthy record when there is any other choice that's remotely reasonable.  They wouldn't have kept a 5-10 Takayasu, but 6-9 at least makes him level on the numbers with Aonishiki there, assuming an extra space between K and M1.

I say Oho is mathematically at sekiwake because, if you move him up three spots, that's sekiwake. Keeps things simple for me. If you want to look at it another way, he's not squeaking his way into the san'yaku (ie. 9-6 at M3w); he's clearly worthy of promotion. But, in line with what you're saying, I do think the most likely alteration to my suggested layout is 7-8 Waka staying up and 9-6 Oho going to K. I can't see anyone but those six guys vying for the san'yaku spots, though; maybe there's a set of outcomes I'm not considering, but I don't see a way for Hakuoho, Ura, or Waka Deux to get there.

[Gurowake 4,149]

Just now, Bunbukuchagama said:

We are overthinking it a bit. It was probably just "Aonishiki is too young/unproven/whatever, how do we keep him in Maegashira ranks?" - "This is the way" - "Great! More sake?"

But do you really think that they'd have kept a 5-10 Takayasu? While a direct calculation likely was not part of the discussion, the general idea is there that they would both end up at relatively the same spot on the banzuke, so they'll give it to the incumbent.  The amount of space there is nebulous, but there's clearly a cushion of some sort when demoting sanyaku, and an even larger one for Sekiwake.

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

12 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

We are overthinking it a bit. It was probably just "Aonishiki is too young/unproven/whatever, how do we keep him in Maegashira ranks?" - "This is the way" - "Great! More sake?"

It was also a deeply weird situation. The best option for a san'yaku promotion was a 10-5 M6e; 11-4 M9e was next; and nobody above that M6e had a winning record. Aonishiki's overall lack of experience may have played a role, but I think it's just as likely they'd have made the same decision if it were Meisei or Shodai or fill in the blank veteran.

Until and unless they make a similar decision in a more average circumstance, I don't think it should be taken as precedent for anything other than they're a little more flexible with how they view rank placement than they were in the past.

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

The amount of space there is nebulous, but there's clearly a cushion of some sort when demoting sanyaku, and an even larger one for Sekiwake.

I do question, however, whether they consider much (or any) cushion for a san'yaku wrestler who's 100% staying in the san'yaku. Like, if we were talking about 7-8 Takayasu and 9-6 Gonoyama (there's your chuckle for the day) and who will go to K1w, they could move up the 9-6 M3w, but that san'yaku favor means it's quite likely Takayasu just slides over and Gono goes to M1e. In this case, if Waka's 7-8, I'm less convinced they'll keep him ahead of Oho since he's staying in the san'yaku regardless.

Edited September 27 by Sumo Spiffy

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

But do you really think that they'd have kept a 5-10 Takayasu?

They would have found another way to screw Aonishiki - make Onokatsu a Komusubi instead, for example.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It was also a deeply weird situation. The best option for a san'yaku promotion was a 10-5 M6e; 11-4 M9e was next; and nobody above that M6e had a winning record. Aonishiki's overall lack of experience may have played a role, but I think it's just as likely they'd have made the same decision if it were Meisei or Shodai or fill in the blank veteran.

There is nothing weird in making a random 11-4 M9 a Komusubi if an open slot is available; in the past (when upper Sanyaku was full of unstoppable monsters and Maegashira joi records were habitually abysmal), much more dramatic overpromotions into sanyaku happened on multiple occasions. Therefore, using Occam's razor makes me think that Aonishiki was the problem in this case. 

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

There is nothing weird in making a random 11-4 M9 a Komusubi if an open slot is available; in the past (when upper Sanyaku was full of unstoppable monsters and Maegashira joi records were habitually abysmal), much more dramatic overpromotions into sanyaku happened on multiple occasions. Therefore, using Occam's razor makes me think that Aonishiki was the problem in this case. 

Rephrasing: There wasn't anything weird about it. The last time they had this kind of mega-bounce when the san'yaku wrestlers could have easily stayed there was January 2015 (https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201501#M). The specifics of how they make the banzuke has changed in a number of ways in the last decade. Seems like the simplest explanation, if you want to bust out Occam's razor, is that they finally realized the way they did it before didn't make a whole lot of sense.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Just now, Sumo Spiffy said:

Seems like the simplest explanation, if you want to bust out Occam's razor, is that they finally realized the way they did it before didn't make a whole lot of sense.

My explanation is the simplest one since it requires only one assumption: they wanted to screw Aonishiki. 

Why would they want it? Too young, too white, advancing too fast, they just hated that nasty stain on his back - it's really irrelevant if we just try to answer the main question: How did they come up with the banzuke we got? 

[Asashosakari 20,224]

4 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Rephrasing: There wasn't anything weird about it. The last time they had this kind of mega-bounce when the san'yaku wrestlers could have easily stayed there was January 2015 (https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201501#M). The specifics of how they make the banzuke has changed in a number of ways in the last decade. Seems like the simplest explanation, if you want to bust out Occam's razor, is that they finally realized the way they did it before didn't make a whole lot of sense.

We've seen the very last maegashira and the very last juryo rikishi stay with a 6-9 in the last year and a half. Are you sure that retaining Ura was beyond the pale and they simply had to promote Nishikigi with a much worse case than Aonishiki had over Takayasu?

[Reonito 1,773]

23 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

They would have found another way to screw Aonishiki - make Onokatsu a Komusubi instead, for example.

I don't think so—one less win at one rank higher, with both in the same area of the banzuke and similar lack of experience, and with Aonishiki having 3 sanyaku bouts to none for Onokatsu? There was no option but to promote Aonishiki or keep Takayasu, even if we didn't consider the latter a reasonable option.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Just now, Reonito said:

I don't think so—one less win at one rank higher, with both in the same area of the banzuke and similar lack of experience, and with Aonishiki having 3 sanyaku bouts to none for Onokatsu? There was no option but to promote Aonishiki or keep Takayasu, even if we didn't consider the latter a reasonable option.

We will never know, obviously - but promoting Onokatsu over Aonishiki was not theoretically impossible. I'm not even sure it would be as unprecedented as Takayasu's 6-9 non-demotion - but searching for precedents would take too much time. 

[Reonito 1,773]

Okay, having followed this discussion, I am now much less sure that Takayasu wouldn't stay at komusubi with a win, though I haven't gone so far as to reconsider WTK staying at S (yet).

[Reonito 1,773]

10 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

We will never know, obviously - but promoting Onokatsu over Aonishiki was not theoretically impossible. I'm not even sure it would be as unprecedented as Takayasu's 6-9 non-demotion - but searching for precedents would take too much time. 

Both are young foreigners, so unless they have something against Aonishiki in particular...

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Just now, Reonito said:

Both are young foreigners, so unless they have something against Aonishiki in particular...

That's the whole point: they did. I don't believe in a greater anti-Aonishiki NSK conspiracy, but at least once, at that particular meeting, this agenda clearly prevailed.

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Day 14

Tsurugisho  W  J9w   5-9    safe
Hakuyozan   W  J10e  6-8    safe
Nishinoryu  W  J14w  8-6    safe

               Rank  W-L    high  low   highQ  lowQ
Endo           J3e   kyujo  Ms4e  Ms4e    2nd   1st
Miyanokaze  L  J10w  3-11   Ms3w  Ms5w    2nd   1st
Takarafuji  L  J12e  5-9    Ms1e  Ms3e    4th   3rd
Kyokukaiyu  W  J13e  6-8          Ms2e          3rd
Shiden      W  J14e  7-7          Ms1e          4th

Kitanowaka     Ms1w  5-2    J12w  J12w    1st   1st
Takakento      Ms2e  4-3    Ms1e  Ms1e    3rd   5th
Nagamura    W  Ms2w  5-2    J13w  J13w    2nd   2nd
Otsuji      L  Ms3e  4-3    Ms2e  Ms2e    4th   6th
Wakanosho      Ms3w  4-2    J14w  Ms2w    3rd   6th
Goshima        Ms5w  5-1    J14w  Ms2w    3rd   6th

Mudoho      L  Ms5e  3-4          out

I forgot to preview Mudoho's KK/MK decider yesterday, but just as well he's now headed out of the makushita-joi altogether.

Another 2-1 day for juryo bubble rikishi, so we have a third rikishi who could be demoted; it's Takarafuji after a decisive loss against Kayo. Kyokukaiyu defeated Tochitaikai to give himself a shot at survival tomorrow, as did Shiden in the first of today's two cross-divisional matches - losing Otsuji is now in a very bad position. The other exchange bout saw Nagamura secure the definite #2 spot in the promotion queue, causing Miyanokaze's certain demotion in the process.

Everyone not mentioned yet on the juryo side is now completely safe - sekitori debutant Nishinoryu secured his outright kachikoshi against struggling Tamashoho, Hakuyozan easily dispatched Hidenoumi, and Tsurugisho overcame a tough challenge from top-ranked (and top division-bound) Oshoumi.

The merry-go-round of promotion and demotion candidates concludes with Takarafuji - Wakanosho and Kyokukaiyu - Goshima tomorrow; Shiden will meet fellow 7-7 J4e Kagayaki. If both exchange bouts are won by the makushita side, we'll see straight swaps between these rikishi, with a Shiden loss possibly making room for Takakento as well. Things should also be clear if Wakanosho and Kyokukaiyu win - Wakanosho up for Takarafuji, and again maybe a Shiden/Takakento exchange of places. It looks a bit different should Takarafuji and Goshima win; Goshima would take Kyokukaiyu's place, but it's then Takarafuji opposite Takakento in the promotion queue. Victories by both juryo incumbents would also leave the Takarafuji/Takakento question to be answered. Otsuji is out of the running entirely if the strict numbers hypothesis is correct; his best-case scenario is losses by Wakanosho and Shiden, which would leave his computed Ms2e destination to be (unfavourably) compared with Shiden's Ms1e.

Lastly, Kotozakura's Day 14 withdrawal up in makushita necessitates an emergency fill-in from juryo to complete the Day 15 juryo torikumi. As usual it's the highest-ranked rikishi who finished his regular slate 2-5 or worse, so Ms4e Kamito (2-5) will be stepping up against Miyanokaze. He has received the call for the second time in less than a year; last November he took advantage of the bonus bout and eventually earned a four-rank boost over the real 2-5 that sat next to him on the banzuke.

Edited September 27 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Considering the weird placement of Takarafuji and Shiden relative to each other on this banzuke, I hope the former drops and the latter stays. Obviously the whole tournament would have played out differently if they'd both been in more sensible spots, but neither should Shiden have to worry about demotion with 7 wins right now nor should Takarafuji still be in the running for survival with 5.

[Reonito 1,773]

7 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Considering the weird placement of Takarafuji and Shiden relative to each other on this banzuke, I hope the former drops and the latter stays. Obviously the whole tournament would have played out differently if they'd both been in more sensible spots, but neither should Shiden have to worry about demotion with 7 wins right now nor should Takarafuji still be in the running for survival with 5.

I hadn't paid attention, but yeah, Shiden was half a rank ahead by the numbers and somehow ended up two full ranks lower !

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I hadn't paid attention, but yeah, Shiden was half a rank ahead by the numbers and somehow ended up two full ranks lower !

They hate him too, apparently. 

[Reonito 1,773]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

They hate him too, apparently. 

I guess that's our default explanation for every odd banzuke decision going forward.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I guess that's our default explanation for every odd banzuke decision going forward.

It's no worse than "they got drunk and forgot how to count again". 

[Reonito 1,773]

First shot at who's going to be in the promotion zone next time. Of the KK below the promotion zone, the following would usually make it based on rank and record:

7-0 Ms20 Shimazuumi

6-1 Ms15 Dewanoryu if W

5-2 Ms10e Seihakuho, Ms10w Inami

4-3 Ms7e Kazuto, Ms8w Yoshii

That's 5 or 6 of the 10 spots. We also have 6 KK in the promotion zone. Two are guaranteed to go up, but any of the juryo replacements shouldn't fall below the promotion zone. So it looks like a tight squeeze; Yoshii presumably misses out, but anyone else on the list above would be very unlucky to end up at Ms6e if Dewanoryu wins.

Edited September 27 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,773]

3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

That's the whole point: they did. I don't believe in a greater anti-Aonishiki NSK conspiracy, but at least once, at that particular meeting, this agenda clearly prevailed.

Honestly, and this is the last thing I'm going to say on this topic, for whatever set of reasons, at this meeting they were not comfortable with promoting a young newcomer who didn't have an unambiguous numerical case. They looked for any alternative, and found one in keeping Takayasu, which is on brand with their other unprecedented recent decisions keeping 6-9 rikishi in place. Had that alternative not been available, my bet is that they would have overcome their reservations and bumped Aonishiki up to K. I see no reason to think they had anything against him per se, and that they would have opted to leapfrog Onokatsu ahead of him even though he had a worse numerical case and to whom the exact same objections applied (and who is also not Japanese, FWIW). And I say all this even though I was completely convinced they'd promote Aonishiki, dismayed that they didn't, and still believe it was the wrong decision for multiple reasons.

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

4 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

We've seen the very last maegashira and the very last juryo rikishi stay with a 6-9 in the last year and a half. Are you sure that retaining Ura was beyond the pale and they simply had to promote Nishikigi with a much worse case than Aonishiki had over Takayasu?

Although now we've seen them keep guys in place on 6-9, they hadn't done it at the time of that basho. Even if they might have considered leaving Ura in place, I'd bet they never even brought up the idea.

Also, IMO, I don't think they would allow someone to hold place in the san'yaku on 6-9, even if they'll allow it elsewhere under the right circumstances. It wouldn't be about who deserves it in that case, but rather the optics of the situation. Saying, essentially, that one of your "elite" guys did poorly enough that he should hard tank out of the san'yaku, but you view absolutely no one as worthy of replacing him, would look terrible. A situation that makes demoting a 6-9 san'yaku guy look even worse than leaving him in place (in the committee's eyes) might not even be mathematically possible.

If I'm right, that creates a substantial difference between Ura in 2024 and Takayasu in May. We were blown away with the Nishikifuji/Hokutofuji situation, but half-rank drops on 6-9 were merely uncommon. Had Ura been K1e instead of K1w, I don't think precedent would have convinced us to drop Ura out of the san'yaku in favor of Nishikgi; I think most of us would have predicted him to drop to just K1w. And I think we'd have been correct.

In that light, to me, Takayasu's situation just looks like the committee finally realizing they didn't have to dumpster him out of the san'yaku. It fixed a mistake in thinking, rather it being a mistake by not continuing to do what they'd done in the past.

Edited September 27 by Sumo Spiffy

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Honestly, and this is the last thing I'm going to say on this topic, for whatever set of reasons, at this meeting they were not comfortable with promoting a young newcomer who didn't have an unambiguous numerical case. They looked for any alternative, and found one in keeping Takayasu, which is on brand with their other unprecedented recent decisions keeping 6-9 rikishi in place. Had that alternative not been available, my bet is that they would have overcome their reservations and bumped Aonishiki up to K. I see no reason to think they had anything against him per se, and that they would have opted to leapfrog Onokatsu ahead of him even though he had a worse numerical case and to whom the exact same objections applied (and who is also not Japanese, FWIW). And I say all this even though I was completely convinced they'd promote Aonishiki, dismayed that they didn't, and still believe it was the wrong decision for multiple reasons.

Well, all we have to do is wait: if MK non-demotions from sanyaku become common within the next year or so, we can call Takayasu/Aonishiki case a flagship precedent signalling a general change of approach; but if they don't... In such case, my theory will survive the test of time.

[Reonito 1,773]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, all we have to do is wait: if MK non-demotions from sanyaku become common within the next year or so, we can call Takayasu/Aonishiki case a flagship precedent signalling a general change of approach; but if they don't... In such case, my theory will survive the test of time.

7-8 non-demotions are neither new nor surprising. We might have to wait a while for a case where it's a choice between a 6-9 incumbent and a maegashira who isn't quite there by the numbers, especially one who is young and would be making a sanyaku debut. More to the point though, this particular iteration of the banzuke committee should turn over in something like that time frame (I'm not an expert on exactly how that works), and it won't be one basho too soon!