Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Asashosakari 20,225]

Day 13

Kayo        W  J6e   4-9    safe
Tamashoho   W  J7e   4-9    safe

               Rank  W-L    high  low   highQ  lowQ
Endo           J3e   kyujo  Ms4e  Ms4e    2nd   1st
Tsurugisho  L  J9w   4-9          Ms2w          2nd
Hakuyozan   L  J10e  5-8          Ms1e          2nd
Miyanokaze  L  J10w  3-10   Ms1w  Ms5w    6th   1st
Takarafuji  W  J12e  5-8          Ms3e          2nd
Kyokukaiyu  W  J13e  5-8          Ms4e          2nd
Shiden      L  J14e  6-7          Ms3e          2nd
Nishinoryu  W  J14w  7-6          Ms1w          2nd

Kitanowaka  L  Ms1w  5-2    J12w  J12w    1st   1st
Takakento   L  Ms2e  4-3    Ms1e  Ms1e    2nd   6th
Nagamura       Ms2w  4-2    J13w  Ms1w    2nd   6th
Otsuji         Ms3e  4-2    J14e  Ms2e    2nd   6th
Wakanosho      Ms3w  4-2    J14w  Ms2w    2nd   6th
Mudoho         Ms5e  3-3    Ms4e          7th   
Goshima        Ms5w  5-1    J14w  Ms2w    2nd   6th

Another decent day for the juryo side, but most crucially their five wins included victories in both cross-divisional matches - Takarafuji defeated Kitanowaka and Kyokukaiyu won over Takakento. Already-safe Kitanowaka can cope, but Takakento will have to hope that his fellow promotion candidates don't do any better. At the moment he's actually now the nominal top contender for a second promotion after Kitanowaka, as Miyanokaze was defeated quite easily by Kotoeiho and thus has a newly demotable record that calculates below Takakento even in the best case - Takakento just can't do anything to help himself keep that position anymore.

So, that was two wins and one loss by the juryo rikishi who were sitting on the bubble entering Day 13. Elsewhere, the two head-to-head meetings saw successes for Kayo over Hakuyozan and Nishinoryu against Tsurugisho; all three guys who aren't named Kayo now stand one win away from safety, Kayo himself is through. In yet more action Tamashoho also saved himself against Tochitaikai, while Shiden fell (quite literally: abisetaoshi) against Hatsuyama. Shiden has now joined the bubble with his loss.

Amusingly the potential queue positions of the makushita contenders as listed in the table haven't changed at all and everyone (Kitanowaka and Mudoho aside) can still finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th; a function of the scheduling team having started with the two highest-ranked rikishi. That will not remain true any longer, as any further results will be shrinking the possibility space now.

In any case we keep going down the order on the makushita side, so Nagamura and Otsuji are stepping up to the juryo torikumi on Day 14. Their opponents will be Miyanokaze (for Nagamura) and Shiden (for Otsuji). I was a bit surprised at first that they've picked Miyanokaze, but I guess it makes sense - as mentioned above he could get exchanged against Takakento as it stands, but he does still have the numerical advantage over the other promotion contenders and it's possible that the rikishi trading places with Takakento will end up being somebody else who finishes worse, so it's still imperative for the makushita guys to put another loss on Miyanokaze. Picking Shiden as the other participant is arguably very sensible, given that he's the only of the three bubble rikishi who didn't already fight a makushita opponent yesterday. (That's of course also a point in favour of the Miyanokaze selection, although he's no longer properly on the bubble now.)

Two of the remaining five endangered juryo rikishi are going up against opponents who newly saved themselves today: Nishinoryu faces Tamashoho and Takarafuji meets Kayo. The other three matches are: Hakuyozan - Hidenoumi (J7w 5-8), Kyokukaiyu - Tochitaikai (J5e 6-7), and Tsurugisho - Oshoumi (J1w 9-4). Ouch to the last one.

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 14:

Already achieved: Oshoumi, Nishikifuji

1 win: Chiyoshoma, Mita, Fujiseiun, Asahakuryu

Of our four contenders, they would each need to win, and hope that the people to the left of them lose.

The key matches are:

• Chiyoshoma vs Kotokuzan
• Mita vs Asanoyama
• Fujiseiun vs Kazkeno
• Asahakuryu vs Nishikifuji

 

Edited September 27 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 14:

Everyone is either safe or demotable.

Demotable: Hitoshi

Definitely down: Takerufuji, Nishikigi

Hitoshi could survive if he wins and all four of the juryo contenders lose.

Edited September 27 by Tigerboy1966
expanded

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

I am sure Reonito will cover this properly but it looks as though Aonishiki and Oho will be the sekiwake in November. I am guessing that the komusubi slots will be filled by the winners of Kirishima vs Takayasu and Wakatakakage vs Takanosho.

Edited September 27 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Reonito 1,775]

Sanyaku demotion order: K1e Takayasu (6-8), S1w Kirishima (6-8), S1e Wakatakakage (6-8).

Sanyaku promotion order: M2w Oho (9-5), M7e Takanosho (11-3), M2e Hakuoho (7-7), M8e Ura (10-4), M4w Wakamotoharu (8-6).

We now know that both Sekiwake will be vacating their ranks. K1w Aonishiki (11-3) will unquestionably take S1e, which presumably puts him in position for a proper Ozeki run at Kyushu. S1w will come down to Oho and Takanosho. If Oho wins or both lose tomorrow, Oho takes it. If Oho loses and Takanosho wins, I can see it going either way.

The Komusubi situation is more complicated. WTK fights Takanosho tomorrow. If he wins, he takes K1e, but a loss should drop him out of sanyaku altogether. Likewise, Kirishima fights Takayasu, and is either Komusubi or maegashira depending on the outcome. So anywhere from zero to two spots could be open. The other key bout is Hakuoho vs. Ura.

• WTK and Kirishima win: they fall to K1w and K1w, respectively, and Takanosho is probably out of luck.
• WTK wins, Kirishima loses: WTK is K1e, and the candidates for K1w are Takanosho and Hakuoho if he wins; I don't think they keep Takayasu.
• WTK loses, Kirishima wins: Kirishima is K1e, Takanosho or Oho is K1w.
• WTK and Kirishima lose: we need two Komusubi. Takanosho or Oho is K1e. The candidates for K1w are Hakuoho if he wins and either Ura or WMH if both win, though they could consider keeping Takayasu.

Does this make any sense? We should end up with just the four regulation S/K, two of whom will definitely be Aonishiki and Oho. The other two will come from among WTK, Kirishima, Takanosho, Hakuoho, Ura, Wakamotoharu, and possibly Takayasu.

[Reonito 1,775]

4 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I am sure Reonito will cover this properly but it looks as though Aonishiki and Oho will be the sekiwake in November. I am guessing that the komusubi slots will be filled by the winners of Kirishims vs Takayasu and Wakatakakage vs Takanosho.

See above and let me know if that makes any sense. I could see Oho getting passed by Takanosho for west sekiwake if Oho loses and Takanosho wins. In that case Oho is komusubi. I'm not sure Takayasu stays even if he wins.

[Gurowake 4,151]

So the Juryo - Makushita matches for Day 15 are (other than the 8th match for Kamito due to Kotozakura withdrawing) Takarafuji vs. Wakanosho and Kyokukaiyu vs. Goshima.  The latter is very clearly a straight up exchange match, while in the former, Takarafuji could still be demoted for Takakento if Takarafuji wins, as they would work out to tied by-the-numbers, but there's also Shiden who could lose his 7-7 duel and end up in a tie with those two as well.  With two of Shiden, Takarafuji, and Wakanosho being in Juryo in that scenario, it would make sense to keep both incumbent sekitori, but who knows?  Shiden and Takarafuji both losing would make it more reasonable to exchange Shiden for Takakento instead of having to pick one of the sekitori to demote.

That's on top of Miyanokaze and Endo being exchanged for Kitanowaka and Nagamura.

Edited September 27 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,151]

44 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If Oho loses and Takanosho wins, I can see it going either way.

To go into more details, Takanosho has an edge by the numbers by 3 slots in this case, but Oho would have a full joi schedule and in general it's hard to know how much that's worth, especially when both will be sanyaku regardless.  They don't seem to care too much about who ends up as Sekiwake and who ends up as Komusubi, so I would definitely lean towards Takanosho getting the Sekiwake spot, as he's got the edge by the numbers.  If they were fighting for a Komusubi spot, then I'd lean towards Oho as there's definitely more bias in promoting joi rikishi.  But I could be completely mistaken, as is increasingly the case these days.

Edited September 27 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,775]

Juryo demotion order: Miyanokaze, Endo, Takarafuji (?), Kyokukaiyu (1), Shiden (1).

Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka, Nagamura, Wakanosho (1), Goshima (1), Takakento (?), Otsuji (?).

We finally have two definite demotions and two definite promotions. Tomorrow, it's Wakanosho and Goshima's turn to try to earn their salaries. Wakanosho fights Takarafuji, and Goshima takes on Kyokukaiyu. Shiden has a 7-7 Darwin match with Kagayaki. Both Makushita rikishi can earn promotion by winning, at the expense of their opponents. Kyokukaiyu is safe with a win, while Takarafuji might not be. If Shiden wins, he is completely safe and we'll have at most four exchanges. Let's consider the scenarios if he loses:

• Wakanosho and Goshima win: they go up, Takarafuji and Kyokukaiyu drop, close call between Shiden and Takakento.
• Wakanosho wins, Goshima loses: Wakanosho goes up, Takarafuji drops, close call between Shiden and Takakento.
• Wakanosho loses, Goshima wins: Goshima goes up, Kyokukaiyu drops, close call among Shiden, Takarafuji, and Takakento.
• Wakanosho and Goshima lose: close call among Shiden, Takarafuji, and Takakento.

If this is all correct, it looks like Otsuji is already out of luck.

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

16 minutes ago, Reonito said:

See above and let me know if that makes any sense. I could see Oho getting passed by Takanosho for west sekiwake if Oho loses and Takanosho wins. In that case Oho is komusubi. I'm not sure Takayasu stays even if he wins.

Yes it does: the possibility of Oho being overtaken by Takanosho was the first thing I overlooked. The second thing was that even if the results all went in his favour, there really is very little chance of Takayasu hanging on in sanyaku.

[Gurowake 4,151]

19 minutes ago, Reonito said:

• WTK wins, Kirishima loses: WTK is K1e, and the candidates for K1w are Takanosho and Hakuoho if he wins; I don't think they keep Takayasu

This is a weird situation where Takanosho has the numbers for promotion and Hakuoho doesn't if he wins, but as mentioned about, they'll likely give Hakuoho a decent amount of credit towards that slot for the full joi schedule.  So they can't say "No one has the numbers to replace Takayasu", because someone does, but then they might given the slot to someone who wouldn't because of the joi bias.  It would be a real mess, but I think Takanosho gets the nod over Hakuoho because of the latter's lack of sanyaku experience and not having a promotion-worthy record.  With that decision of who to promote being made, Takayasu then clearly gets replaced.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Takayasu is definitely gone unless they will  decide to push some agenda very blatantly (like when they decided to screw Aonishiki).

[Reonito 1,775]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Everyone is either safe or demotable.

If I were Meisei, I might want to make sure with a win, in case both Chiyoshoma and Mita win and the shimpan department looks askance at someone who computes to M18e, or just plain gets confused by the math.

[Fashiritētā 210]

1 minute ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Takayasu is definitely gone unless they will  decide to push some agenda very blatantly (like when they decided to screw Aonishiki).

Lets see, WTK beats Takanosho he slides to S1W, Aonishiki to S1E , Takayasu beats Kirishima to slide to K1W and Kirishima falls to K1E and Oho only gets M1E.

Not impossible considering, like you said”the agenda”.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

Just now, Fashiritētā said:

Lets see, WTK beats Takanosho he slides to S1W, Aonishiki to S1E , Takayasu beats Kirishima to slide to K1W and Kirishima falls to K1E and Oho only gets M1E.

This is a lot of underdemotions; most importantly, what agenda would make them do it this way?

[Asashosakari 20,225]

35 minutes ago, Reonito said:

We now know that both Sekiwake will be vacating their ranks.

Careful, all bets are off after Takayasu...

[Gurowake 4,151]

45 minutes ago, Reonito said:

WTK and Kirishima lose: we need two Komusubi. Takanosho or Oho is K1e. The candidates for K1w are Hakuoho if he wins and either Ura or WMH if both win, though they could consider keeping Takayasu.

In this situation, we'd have the winner of Ura vs. Hakuoho have the best claim by the numbers, but with Ura well out of the joi and Hakuoho with no sanyaku experience, Wakamotoharu might be a more compelling candidate.  Takayasu just might be safe in this case as no one would have the clear numbers for a promotion, but given one of Ura or Hakuoho landing on M1e and Wakamotoharu potentially landing on M1w, there are certainly candidates that are very close to those numbers.  Hakuoho will have to work against the prejudice of not giving someone a sanyaku debut without a record deserving of it, like we saw with Aonishiki, though I'm more inclined to blame Japanese xenophobia for that just as much.  This one I don't think i can give a good opinion on, with any of them being compelling candidates.  Note Wakamotoharu is against Aonishiki - while the latter is obviously going to be Sekiwake, a win by WMH in this case gives him a fairly emphatic last day push for the Komusubi position at question in this scenario.

Edited September 27 by Gurowake

[Fashiritētā 210]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This is a lot of underdemotions; most importantly, what agenda would make them do it this way?

Not really, just Kirishima , Takayasus 6-9 and still Komosubi has set a precedents , so that would be an agenda.

[Reonito 1,775]

8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Careful, all bets are off after Takayasu...

I thought about that, but Aonishiki is undeniable and Oho or Takanosho ought to be as well. It's not like they have to pull up a 9-6 M6.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

6 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

Not really, just Kirishima , Takayasus 6-9 and still Komosubi has set a precedents , so that would be an agenda.

They don't seem to care much about precedents anyway, apparently. In theory, they could let all current MK sanyaku rikishi keep their places, but why would they want to do it? This is the question I am asking. In case of Takayasu's 6-9, the answer was definitely "to keep Aonishiki out of sanyaku". 

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

I find it hard to imagine Takanosho going to sekiwake ahead of Oho under any circumstances. 12-3 Taka would be 1.5 ranks ahead of Oho mathematically; I don't think that's enough for them to only move Oho to komusubi when 9-6 at M2w moves him to sekiwake mathematically. Yeah, "by the math" gets weird moving into the san'yaku, but I still can't imagine they bump up the M7 in that case. He'll still be at komusubi; I think they'll be content with that.

As for Takayasu, if he beats Kiri, he'll probably slide to K1w. There's no one else with a better argument. Nobody can pass him mathematically, he's a komusubi vs. a bunch of maegashira hopefuls, and sliding back a half-rank is far less odd at 7-8 than 6-9.

Basically, as many options as there appear to be, this one doesn't look like it's going to play out that strangely.

S1e: Aonishiki
S1w: Oho
K1e: Waka/Takanosho winner
K1w: Kiri/Takayasu winner

Edit: I suppose they could shift a 7-8 Waka to S1w and a 9-6 Oho to K1e, something like that, but it seems to me that they're more concerned with who's in the san'yaku and who isn't as opposed to the precise ranks. Let Waka take his rank drop to K, then Oho's the only option for S1w, and see what happens next time.

Edited September 27 by Sumo Spiffy

[Fashiritētā 210]

4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

They don't seem to care much about precedents anyway, apparently. In theory, they could let all current MK sanyaku rikishi keep their places, but why would they want to do it? This is the question I am asking. In case of Takayasu's 6-9, the answer was definitely "to keep Aonishiki out of sanyaku". 

Bottom line is, they are going to do whatever they want, i was just guessing per what we have all seen with the Takayasu 6-9, hopefully that answers it.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

4 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

As for Takayasu, if he beats Kiri, he'll probably slide to K1w. There's no one else with a better argument. Nobody can pass him mathematically, he's a komusubi vs. a bunch of maegashira hopefuls, and sliding back a half-rank is far less odd at 7-8 than 6-9.

This would still be unusual. WMH/Hakuoho (if the latter wins) are not THAT far down to take an available K slot.

[Gurowake 4,151]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah, "by the math" gets weird moving into the san'yaku,

There almost certainly is some "space" in between the Sekiwake and Komusubi ranks when it comes to demoting them, and similarly there is generally space between M1 and Komusubi, so I don't think saying that Oho with a 9-6 puts him "mathematically" at Sekiwake.  The only real dividing line tends to be whether there are enough wins for the promotion to sanyaku when dealing with whether to demote a sanyaku at 7-8.  As mentioned above, the keeping of 6-9 Takayasu should only be seen as precedent for the steps they'll take to keep out of sanyaku a rikishi without sanyaku experience or a slam-dunk sanyaku promotion-worthy record when there is any other choice that's remotely reasonable.  They wouldn't have kept a 5-10 Takayasu, but 6-9 at least makes him level on the numbers with Aonishiki there, assuming an extra space between K and M1.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

They wouldn't have kept a 5-10 Takayasu, but 6-9 at least makes him level on the numbers with Aonishiki there, assuming an extra space between K and M1.

We are overthinking it a bit. It was probably just "Aonishiki is too young/unproven/whatever, how do we keep him in Maegashira ranks?" - "This is the way" - "Great! More sake?"