Akinomaki

Natsu 2025 discussion (results)

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5 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Calling a group this size "yokozuna-level" talent is a little bit much, considering it's basically impossible for all of them to get there. "Ozeki-level" is more reasonable, since then they only have to rack up wins, not consistently beat each other for titles. 

As for the specific wrestlers listed: right now, Onosato is obviously yokozuna-level. Koto, of course, is an ozeki, but the idea of him becoming yokozuna is fading until and unless he finds a fix for his knee (assuming there aren't other problems in play). The rest are either as-yet unproven at the highest levels (Aonishiki and especially Kusano), have too many holes in their game to expect ozeki from them until they improve (Oho and Takerufuji), or need to show that they can overcome previous injuries (Hakuoho).

We would be lucky to get another Yokozuna out of this group (in addition to Onosato). 

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9 hours ago, Hankegami said:

Because we all hoped that Hakkaku & friends knew what they were doing when they pushed for his promotion.

I think a lot of us here underestimated ozumo establishment's fear of not having a Yokozuna on the banzuke for ceremonial purposes (and London koen is coming soon...) - it also explains why Terunofuji was getting so little pressure from them even when he was completing 2 basho a year as long as he was performing the dohyo-iri at jungyo etc. The last Yokozuna-less period happened so long ago that it might seem like ancient history to many of them, and they jumped on an opportunity to promote Hoshoryu hoping that he would somehow become good enough to fill the void - at least until a "real" Yokozuna could arise. 

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Some late thoughts about yesterday, mixed with today's comments. 

Tobizaru yesterday had an undeserved torinaoshi but managed to put things right by winning the second bout as well.

Sadanoumi is not doing bad sumo, but recently his level seems to be a slight bit below most of his maegashira opponents. Sadly it's just a question of time when we lose another veteran.

Hakuoho looks very solid and could go far this basho if his body holds up. Likewise with Takerufuji. However, Wakatakakage was a good match for Takerufuji, both have immensely strong upper body so it was interesting to see their bout. Wakatakakage won surprisingly easily, perhaps Takerufuji is not used to matching with someone of equal strong points.  

If Kinbozan got a torinaoshi yesterday then Ura should've gotten one as well. Didn't see much difference in the bouts but the shimpan work in mysterious ways. d

Moving on to today, Shonannoumi continues to show hapless results. At this point it's not just his sumo, but it seems his belief in getting wins is also damaged. Unfortunately he hasn't found a way to escape the downward trajectory. 

I have huge respect for Midorifuji. It takes a lot of mental fortitude to face much bigger opponents where he basically has no margin of error and has to execute perfect sumo for 15 days in a row. And to have the mental strength to get up on the doyho even after 4 or 5 defeats in a row. 

Onosato handled Oho quite comfortably considering Oho's strong basho start. Hope he won't have any lapse of concentration as physically he seems tip top. 

Kotozakura finally showed some ozeki sumo and got a deserved 2nd win. Not sure if he's in the shape to affect the yusho competition but he might surprise us. 

That kinboshi seemed way too easy for Abi. Either Hoshoryu is trying to prove himself too much or he's physically not 100%. Either way he'll have some catching up to do. 

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9 hours ago, Hankegami said:

A few notes: the list includes 53 Yokozuna, with the median of kinboshi given out per basho being 1,02 (26th spot, Takanohana). This actually reflects a swing of good and bad basho. In general, giving away kinboshi does not necessarily entail an unsuccessful career - up to a certain point. Hoshoryu currently sits among the bottom 5 sit above 2,00 rate (bottom 10%), all very unsuccessful Yokozuna in different ways. Looking at their names, a good cutaway would be a kinboshi rate above 1,50 - Terunofuji managed to get above there, and also Harumafuji despite him being known as the kinboshi machine. This means for Hoshoryu to stop giving kinboshi around until at least after his 4th career basho.

As was discussed last basho (can't find it though), kinboshi per basho is not a good metric. When we had an 11-man sanyaku, a Yokozuna would typically fight 5 maegashira; with the current 7-man sanyaku, it's 9, or almost twice as many kinboshi opportunities. Kinboshi per maegashira bout allows for a more meaningful comparison IMO (of course, Hoshoryu's sample size is too small for any meaningful comparisons).

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I don't recall any tsukedashi with less impressive 3 initial bouts than Urayama.

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I just had my first cheer and applaud moment at this basho. Kayooooo!!!!

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6 hours ago, Reonito said:

As was discussed last basho (can't find it though), kinboshi per basho is not a good metric. When we had an 11-man sanyaku, a Yokozuna would typically fight 5 maegashira; with the current 7-man sanyaku, it's 9, or almost twice as many kinboshi opportunities. Kinboshi per maegashira bout allows for a more meaningful comparison IMO (of course, Hoshoryu's sample size is too small for any meaningful comparisons).

There are several issues to consider while reading those data, for sure. Another problem with my list is that early 1900s Yokozuna often just sat out those matches they were not confident to win. The goal at the time was not getting any loss, not raking up as many wins as possible. This trend fortunately changed after tournament winners began to receive an award (1909), and certainly after the introduction of the Emperor's Cup (1926). Trying to tie kinboshi with Maegashira bouts would be certainly better, but then I should look at every bout for every Yokozuna. It takes time. Perhaps this weekend. 

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Posted (edited)

Lets give it a go...
 

I am ignoring both fusen wins and fusen losses and count only Yokozuna vs Maegashira bouts where there was a winner (no draws) and a valid kimarite was used (no hansoku).

Spoiler
Yokozuna Maegashira Bouts Kinboshi Percentage
Hoshoryu 11 5 45,45 %
Kisenosato 43 18 41,86 %
Musashiyama 16 6 37,50 %
Tochinoumi 88 33 37,50 %
Nishinoumi 11 4 36,36 %
Maedayama 24 8 33,33 %
Miyagiyama 93 29 31,18 %
Otori 36 11 30,56 %
Wakanohana 64 19 29,69 %
Mienoumi 36 10 27,78 %
Yoshibayama 72 20 27,78 %
Minanogawa 83 22 26,51 %
Asashio 78 20 25,64 %
Kotozakura 49 12 24,49 %
Asahifuji 52 12 23,08 %
Terunofuji 97 22 22,68 %
Nishinoumi 50 11 22,00 %
Harumafuji 188 40 21,28 %
Onokuni 96 20 20,83 %
Akinoumi 29 6 20,69 %
Kagamisato 152 31 20,39 %
Futahaguro 40 8 20,00 %
Chiyonoyama 178 34 19,10 %
Takanosato 59 11 18,64 %
Terukuni 116 21 18,10 %
Kakuryu 188 33 17,55 %
Azumafuji 114 20 17,54 %
Umegatani 19 3 15,79 %
Sadanoyama 122 19 15,57 %
Musashimaru 170 26 15,29 %
Tochinishiki 204 31 15,20 %
Kashiwado 233 35 15,02 %
Haguroyama 162 22 13,58 %
Wakanohana 192 26 13,54 %
Akebono 259 35 13,51 %
Hokutoumi 156 21 13,46 %
Wajima 294 39 13,27 %
Wakanohana 170 22 12,94 %
Kitanoumi 410 53 12,93 %
Takanohana 311 39 12,54 %
Kitanofuji 137 17 12,41 %
Futabayama 134 14 10,45 %
Hitachiyama 32 3 9,38 %
Asashoryu 276 25 9,06 %
Onishiki 56 5 8,93 %
Tsunenohana 102 9 8,82 %
Taiho 335 28 8,36 %
Chiyonofuji 357 29 8,12 %
Tamanishiki 60 4 6,67 %
Tochigiyama 84 5 5,95 %
Hakuho 484 26 5,37 %
Tamanoumi 61 3 4,92 %
Tachiyama 59 0 0,00 %


Edit: Data is not including todays bouts. Hoshoryu was in the lead, but ofc the sample size is so small that his win today is already lifting him above Kisenosato.

 

Edited by krindel
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Endo still struggling to get up from the ground :(

It reminds me a bit of Ikioi's cellulitis, but less extreme. Could just be his knees though, as Murray Johnson suggested.

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I'm enjoying this. I reckoned on Nishikigi's amiuchi being the rarest kimarite I saw in makuuchi this time, then Aonishiki gave us an uchimuso! I believe that's a first for me.

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27 minutes ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm enjoying this. I reckoned on Nishikigi's amiuchi being the rarest kimarite I saw in makuuchi this time, then Aonishiki gave us an uchimuso! I believe that's a first for me.

Midorifuji had one against Myogiryu a couple of years ago, but that's the only other top division one since 2015

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1 hour ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm enjoying this. I reckoned on Nishikigi's amiuchi being the rarest kimarite I saw in makuuchi this time, then Aonishiki gave us an uchimuso! I believe that's a first for me.

The rarest kimarite was Tsurugisho's "win" against Hatsuyama for which there's not even a fitting name.

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3 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm enjoying this. I reckoned on Nishikigi's amiuchi being the rarest kimarite I saw in makuuchi this time, then Aonishiki gave us an uchimuso! I believe that's a first for me.

I wonder who taught him that?

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3 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

I'm enjoying this. I reckoned on Nishikigi's amiuchi being the rarest kimarite I saw in makuuchi this time, then Aonishiki gave us an uchimuso! I believe that's a first for me.

Aonishiki pulled an uchimuso on Daiamami back in November. If guys want to get low on him, I expect this will become less rare.

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Onosato is in win mode. He took a shot from Tamawashi and just started advancing. Tamawashi could have brought a gun and still wouldn't have stopped Onosato. He just has to maintain it to end of the basho, which has been the tricky part for some -satos in the past...

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Aonishiki is a joy to watch, pulling out tricks left and right. Like Yamanashi, I wonder where he picked up the uchimuso. If that's something that came to him naturally then he's really a formidable technical talent. I'm really looking forward to watching his sumo for years to come. 

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1 hour ago, dingo said:

Aonishiki is a joy to watch, pulling out tricks left and right. Like Yamanashi, I wonder where he picked up the uchimuso. If that's something that came to him naturally then he's really a formidable technical talent. I'm really looking forward to watching his sumo for years to come. 

Same. I feel like all of his bouts are interesting, win or lose. 

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1 hour ago, dingo said:

Aonishiki is a joy to watch, pulling out tricks left and right. Like Yamanashi, I wonder where he picked up the uchimuso. If that's something that came to him naturally then he's really a formidable technical talent. I'm really looking forward to watching his sumo for years to come. 

Yes he is a joy to watch , having Ex-Aminishiki as your oyakata probably doesn’t hurt either , Aminishiki had a big toolbox.

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6 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

Yes he is a joy to watch , having Ex-Aminishiki as your oyakata probably doesn’t hurt either , Aminishiki had a big toolbox.

Yeah, that was my point above.  The sly ol' oyakata is teaching this kid all of the tricks.

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Can't wait to see how Aonishiki fares against stronger competition once he reaches Joi. 

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If only he was a tad bigger. His size might prevent him from going all the way.

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7 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

If only he was a tad bigger. His size might prevent him from going all the way.

Right size for a yokozuna: height like Chiyonofuji and weight like Harumafuji

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On 11/05/2025 at 23:56, Benevolance said:

Who are folks cheering for this basho? 

As always, Aonishiki for yusho or jun-yusho

Hoshoryu to get yokozuna kachi-koshi (=10 wins), Abi kachi-koshi and back to sanyaku

Asakoryu to get a firm hold in makuuchi, Mitakeumi to make it back and Kusano to break into it

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NHK looking back at Wajima's zensho to earn Yokozuna promotion in May 1973. 

All I can think about are my many chats with @Araiwa, and his utter contempt for the man (Laughing...)

Ah, I miss him. 

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