Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2025

[Asashosakari 20,195]

The new yokozuna leads the way - will he make it to 20 kachikoshi and with how many wins?

 1. Hoshoryu       19  [score?]
 2. Onosato        11* [score?]
 3. Aonishiki       8*
 4. Tochimaru       6
 5. Inami           6*
 6. Daieisho        5  [score?]
 7. Kusano          5*
 8. Takakento       5
 9. Okaryu          5*
10. Noda            5*
11. Mishima         5
12. Yurikisho       5
13. Hakuoho         4

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 13 guys up there and the further 11 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (9 'veterans' + 1 newcomer from maezumo + tsukedashi Ishizaki), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 24. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 12 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

1. Hoshoryu W-L
2. Onosato W-L
3. Aonishiki KKMK
4. Tochimaru KKMK
5. Inami KKMK
6. Daieisho W-L
7. Kusano KKMK
8. Takakento KKMK
9. Okaryu KKMK
10. Noda KKMK
11. Mishima KKMK
12. Yurikisho KKMK
13. Hakuoho KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

[Ryoshishokunin 332]

LKS Hatsu ’25

1. 9
2. 10
3. kk
4. kk
5. mk
6. 9
7. mk
8. mk
9. kk
10. kk
11. kk
12. mk
13. kk

TB 14

[Hakuryuho 335]

1. Hoshoryu 9-6
2. Onosato 11-4
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami KK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu KK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho MK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 14

[Fashiritētā 210]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Onosato 12-3
3. Aonishiki MK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami KK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu MK
10. Noda MK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho KK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 14

[Profomisakari 909]

1 .Hoshoryu  12
2. Onosato     11*
3. Aonishiki   KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami          KK
6. Daieisho    10
7. Kusano      MK   
8. Takakento MK
9. Okaryu       KK
10. Noda        KK
11. Mishima   KK
12. Yurikisho MK
13. Hakuoho  KK

TB 13

[Oskanohana 357]

1. Hoshoryu 12-3
2. Onosato 12-3
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami MK
6. Daieisho 8-7
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu KK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho MK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 17

[Yarimotsu 637]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
2. Onosato 12-3
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami KK
6. Daieisho 7-8
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento MK
9. Okaryu MK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho KK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 15

[Jejima 1,486]

1. Hoshoryu 8-7
2. Onosato 8-7
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami KK
6. Daieisho 8-7
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu KK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho KK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 16

[ryafuji 824]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Onosato 12-3
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru MK
5. Inami MK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu MK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima MK
12. Yurikisho KK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 15

 

Edited March 8 by ryafuji

[Holleshoryu 17]

1. Hoshoryu 13-2

2. Onosato 10-5

3. Aonishiki KK

4. Tochimaru KK

5. Inami KK

6. Daieisho 9-6

7. Kusano KK

8. Takakento MK

9. Okaryu KK

10. Noda KK

11. Mishima MK

12. Yurikisho MK

13. Hakuoho KK

 

TB 12

 

 

[Sakura 1,523]

On 06/03/2025 at 14:57, Asashosakari said:

Simplified entry template:

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Onosato 10-5
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru MK
5. Inami KK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano MK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu MK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima MK
12. Yurikisho MK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 13

-----

Good luck!

 

[Athenayama 1,189]

1. Hoshoryu 12-3
2. Onosato 12-3
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami MK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu MK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho MK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 16

[Bunbukuchagama 958]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
2. Onosato 12-3
3. Aonishiki KK
4. Tochimaru KK
5. Inami KK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano KK
8. Takakento MK
9. Okaryu KK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima KK
12. Yurikisho MK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 16

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
2. Onosato MK
3. Aonishiki MK
4. Tochimaru MK
5. Inami MK
6. Daieisho 9-6
7. Kusano MK
8. Takakento KK
9. Okaryu MK
10. Noda KK
11. Mishima MK
12. Yurikisho KK
13. Hakuoho KK

TB 11

[Asashosakari 20,195]

10 Hoshoryu
12 Onosato
+ Aonishiki
+ Tochimaru
- Inami
10 Daieisho
+ Kusano
- Takakento
- Okaryu
- Noda
+ Mishima
- Yurikisho
+ Hakuoho

TB 14
 

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hoshoryu             11
2. Onosato               10
3. Aonishiki                     KK
4. Tochimaru                           MK
5. Inami                                    MK
6. Daieisho                9
7. Kusano                        KK
8. Takakento                   KK
9. Okaryu                                  MK
10. Noda                          KK
11. Mishima                             MK
12. Yurikisho                            MK
13. Hakuoho                    KK

TB 14

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Oof, almost time for Natsu already... Let's get going with the Haru results, finally. 15 entrants, the most in exactly five years (!), produced these selections:

Player	Hosho		Onosato		Aonishi	Tochim	Inami	Daiei		Kusano	T'kento	Okaryu	Noda	Mishi	Yuriki	Hakuo	TB	Cons
Ryoshishokunin	-	9-6	-	10-5	+	+	-	+	9-6	-	-	+	+	+	-	+	14	1.55
Hakuryuho	-	9-6	-	11-4	+	+	+	+	9-6	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	14	1.30
Fashiritētā	+	11-4	+	12-3	-	+	+	+	9-6	+	+	-	-	+	+	+	14	1.81
Profomisakari	+	12-3	-	11-4	+	+	+	+	10-5	-	-	+	+	+	-	+	13	1.47
Oskanohana	+	12-3	+	12-3	+	+	-	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	-	+	17	1.49
Yarimotsu	-	10-5	+	12-3	+	+	+	-	MK	+	-	-	+	+	+	+	15	1.68
Jejima	-	8-7	-	8-7	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	+	+	16	1.62
ryafuji	+	11-4	+	12-3	+	-	-	+	9-6	+	+	-	+	-	+	+	15	1.64
Holleshoryu	+	13-2	-	10-5	+	+	+	+	9-6	+	-	+	+	-	-	+	12	1.42
Sakura	+	11-4	-	10-5	+	-	+	+	9-6	-	+	-	+	-	-	+	13	1.64
Athenayama	+	12-3	+	12-3	+	+	-	+	9-6	+	+	-	+	+	-	+	16	1.24
Bunbukuchagama	-	10-5	+	12-3	+	+	+	+	9-6	+	-	+	+	+	-	+	16	1.40
WAKATAKE	+	11-4	-	MK	-	-	-	+	9-6	-	+	-	+	-	+	+	11	1.95
Asashosakari	-	10-5	+	12-3	+	+	-	+	10-5	+	-	-	-	+	-	+	14	1.64
chishafuwaku	+	11-4	-	10-5	+	-	-	+	9-6	+	+	-	+	-	-	+	14	1.51
	9:6		7:8		13:2	11:4	8:7	12:3		11:4	9:6	7:8	13:2	10:5	5:10	15:0
Results	- (MK)		+		+	-	+	+		+	-	-	-	+	-	+

12 rikishi in play after the unanimous KK selections for Hakuoho. I'd actually expected Aonishiki to get the same treatment, but two intrepid players decided to predict the upset. Makushita rookie Noda received equally strong support.

We lost two sanyaku rikishi to makekoshi last time around, so just three high-rankers invited specific win-loss picks this basho. Shin-yokozuna Hoshoryu received - by the historical standards of yokozuna debuts - fairly average support, but within a wide range of predictions going from 13-2 all the way down to 8-7, with all possible scores represented. The median pick was 11-4, and that also became his Haru basho target as fewer predictions went above (4) than below (6); one win down from his January target for what turned out to be his successful promotion campaign.

By contrast it's another 12-3 target for Onosato despite relatively lackluster back-to-back results in Kyushu and Hatsu, and the split is actually more in favour of him hitting those 12 wins than it was last time (7:8 here, 5:9 last basho). Notably, though, his average overall support has actually dropped slightly, from 10.9 wins in January to 10.7 now (counting WAKATAKE's MK prediction as 7 wins). The median pick has been 11-4 both times, but while it was also the most popular pick in Hatsu, it was selected only twice in this edition. More entrants went above, but more also went below. A controversial candidate, I suppose.

Last not least, the majority of the field went for 9-6 as their Daieisho prediction, and as 3 people even doubted those 9 wins while just 2 players went higher, that's also his target score.

There's a good amount of individual agreement between players, but nobody really stands out: No completely identical ballots were submitted and even 12 out of 13 was not seen, but 11 common picks have turned up quite a few times, in 7 pairs involving 11 different players to be exact. Conversely, a single player-pair managed to agree on just 3 rikishi, namely Bunbukuchagama with WAKATAKE. The latter also appears in two pairs that shared 4 selections, with Asashosakari and Yarimotsu respectively. This level of low agreement was further produced by Fashiritētā/Ryoshishokunin. The average pair of players has 7.7 picks in common, just under 60%.

It won't come as a surprise that WAKATAKE once again has the most unusual selections, with Fashiritētā a relatively distant second to him but also well away from the rest of the field. The opposite end of the spectrum also sees two fairly clear entrants with the most average picks, those being Athenayama in front of Hakuryuho. Both have voted against the majority only twice, Athenayama by the most narrow of margins (the short sides of two 8:7 slots).

The tie-breaker picks have continued their recent trend towards very low agreement with all numbers from 11 to 17 selected at least once, centered around five picks of 14.

Edited May 8 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 7

No points-worthy news yet, but two off-ballot rikishi decided their fates in minimum time: Former sekitori Enho rushed out to a 4-0 start to claim his spot in the next edition, while Kototaiko opened Haru basho with four straight losses to end his KK streak at four tournaments.

Day 8

And now much the same on the ballot. Shin-juryo collegiate Kusano surprised with 8 straight wins after his relatively unremarkable rise to salaried status, but sandanme regular Yurikisho is already makekoshi at 0-4. Both outcomes were majority predictions with a sizable amount of detractor picks, so quite a few points were lost. Only one player was unlucky to miss out on both scores, though.

In addition there was another early MK among the 4-KK crowd; Yamato's makushita debut is not going according to plan at 1-4.

The first standings:

Day 8: 2/13 Decisions, TB 2-21
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Holleshoryu	2	12
2	Asashosakari	2	14
2	chishafuwaku	2	14
2	Hakuryuho	2	14
5	Athenayama	2	16
5	Bunbukuchagama	2	16
7	Oskanohana	2	17
8	Profomisakari	1	13
8	Sakura	1	13
10	Fashiritētā	1	14
10	Ryoshishokunin	1	14
12	ryafuji	1	15
12	Yarimotsu	1	15
14	Jejima	1	16
15	WAKATAKE	0	11

 

Edited May 8 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 9

Today's result comes courtesy of a long-suffering rikishi. Naruto-beya's Mishima was already in makushita back in September 2022 but was injured in that tournament, and then had another setback a year later. His second comeback attempt is in its sixth basho now, and his return to the third division has been going well with another early kachikoshi. Another majority prediction, so good news for 10 entrants.

In other news, Day 9 also saw the fast KK for ozeki Onosato, now with six days remaining to get four wins towards his 12-3 target record. Another makekoshi was seen away from the ballot, however, where the recent resurgence of super-veteran Hagane (43 years old, active since Haru 2000) finally ended. Perhaps not what he had hoped for in his 25th anniversary as a professional sumotori. Still, for Hatsu and Haru he was ranked higher than at any other point in the last five years.

Day 9: 3/13 Decisions, TB 4-20
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	3	14
1	Hakuryuho	3	14
3	Athenayama	3	16
3	Bunbukuchagama	3	16
5	Oskanohana	3	17
6	Holleshoryu	2	12
7	Profomisakari	2	13
8	chishafuwaku	2	14
8	Fashiritētā	2	14
8	Ryoshishokunin	2	14
11	Yarimotsu	2	15
12	Jejima	2	16
13	Sakura	1	13
14	ryafuji	1	15
15	WAKATAKE	0	11

 

Edited May 8 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 10

Hoshoryu's yokozuna debut was going less than swimmingly, and having picked up back-to-back losses on the previous two days to fall to 5-4, his withdrawal from the tournament took place on this day. The fusenpai amounted to his fifth loss which ended his quest for the 11-4 target score, but of course the kyujo has also concluded his LKS-topping streak of 19 straight KK records going back to the start of 2022. He had had the joint longest streak on the ballot (then with 9 KK) since back in the Nagoya 2023 edition, and became the sole frontrunner with the next basho. Will be quite unusual to not have him in the game for the next while, at least until January next year.

Another ballot rikishi also punched his departure card as Takakento's return from injury will not see a sixth straight KK. Each result was predicted by just 6 out of the 15 active players. Nevertheless, that includes four entrants who successfully predicted against both guys, getting a big leg up on the field.

Two scores also came in for the off-ballot section, where Tochimusashi (another ex-juryo injury returnee) is now at KK #5 on the way back up, while jonidan-sandanme elevator rikishi Terutaka was unsuccessful in procuring the fifth straight kachikoshi.

Two players keep up perfection for the time being:

Day 10: 5/13 Decisions, TB 5-17
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	5	14
2	Bunbukuchagama	5	16
3	Hakuryuho	4	14
3	Ryoshishokunin	4	14
5	Yarimotsu	4	15
6	Holleshoryu	3	12
7	Profomisakari	3	13
8	Athenayama	3	16
8	Jejima	3	16
10	Oskanohana	3	17
11	chishafuwaku	2	14
11	Fashiritētā	2	14
13	Sakura	1	13
14	ryafuji	1	15
15	WAKATAKE	0	11

 

Edited May 8 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 11

Picking against Aonishiki's KK hopes looked like a great idea until Day 5 when he was 2-3, but since then he has rattled off six straight wins to clinch the widely expected kachikoshi with four days to spare. It was a much better idea to predict makekoshi for Tochimaru though, which only four players did. That ends - or at least interrupts - yet another injury comeback by a former juryo member, this one in basho number seven. (Although Tochimaru was already gone from the paid ranks when the injury happened, unlike Takakento and Tochimusashi who perservered unsuccessfully and then went kyujo directly from their first tournament down in makushita.)

Day 11 also brought forth the KK-clinching 8th win for sekiwake Daieisho, just one more victory away from his 9-6 target. And lastly, it's the first ever makekoshi for collegiate rookie Shimizuumi in his fifth ranked honbasho, who thus will not be joining the game proper for May.

No more perfect scores, but the leading duo remains unchallenged for now and even the pursuers are still the same, as the four players who avoided the Tochimaru trap were all in the bottom five of yesterday's standings.

Day 11: 7/13 Decisions, TB 7-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	6	14
2	Bunbukuchagama	6	16
3	Hakuryuho	5	14
3	Ryoshishokunin	5	14
5	Yarimotsu	5	15
6	Holleshoryu	4	12
7	Profomisakari	4	13
8	chishafuwaku	4	14
9	Athenayama	4	16
9	Jejima	4	16
9	Oskanohana	4	17
12	Sakura	3	13
13	ryafuji	3	15
14	Fashiritētā	2	14
15	WAKATAKE	1	11

The first tie-breaker picks have already been consigned to failure.

Edited May 8 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

6 slots remain, but one of them is unanimously picked Hakuoho, so we're down to "only" 32 scenarios. Altogether 8 players can still tie for the lead, and 6 of them have yusho chances. These include the current top 5 plus Jejima; chishafuwaku and Oskanohana can only aim for yusho-doten at best.

The rikishi who still matter after Day 11 are:

• Onosato: 9-2 (12-3 target)
• Inami: 3-2
• Daieisho: 8-3 (9-6 target)
• Okaryu: 3-2
• Noda: 3-3

The six contenders and their winning probabilities as estimated by the ever-popular "every bout is a coin flip" method:

• #1 Hakuryuho (42.7%)
  • Big surprise as he's not one of the two leaders. But Hakuryuho would win the two most likely scenarios: Onosato finishes below 12-3, Daieisho gets his 9 wins, Inami and Okaryu get KK, and Noda's outcome can be either KK or MK. That's twice over 18% right there, no other individual scenario contributes even half as much to anybody's chances.
  • Altogether he's the certain winner in only 3 scenarios (all in score ties), plus 2 more where he would have to rely on hitting the tie-breaker (with low probability of doing so).
  • Necessary (but not sufficient) conditions: the Onosato and Inami results. If one of those fails to materialize, Hakuryuho cannot win.
• #2 Bunbukuchagama (22.7%)
  • 6 scenarios to win, including the third and fourth most likely: Same as Hakuryuho's from above, just with Onosato hitting the 12-3.
  • That Onosato result is also his necessary condition, but it's not very meaningful - he's still losing 10 other scenarios with that. Mainly needs more points from the other four rikishi than Asashosakari scores, who also has the Onosato 12-3. The details are rather convoluted.
  • Also ties for the lead in any of the five scenarios that Hakuryuho can win, but would lose the playoff in all of them.
• #3 Asashosakari (16.4%)
  • The other co-leader. No less than 11 winning scenarios, but mostly with low individual odds, plus 6 more where he would tie in a losing playoff.
  • The only contender who predicted MK for Noda, and one of just two who had MK for Okaryu. At least one of these two outcomes has to hit, otherwise no chance to win. (But even with both correct it's not a guaranteed victory.)
• #4 Ryoshishokunin (15.0%)
  • Another surprisingly high likelihood. Would win in 6 scenarios, two of them outright and the others via playoffs.
  • The only contender to combine Onosato under 12-3 with an Inami MK. Required to hit both of them to have any chance, but would then win nearly everything. (The only two exceptions are Asashosakari's favoured outcome of a double MK for Okaryu and Noda, with whatever Daieisho result.)
• #5 Jejima (2.1%)
  • The first of two longshot contenders. Can only win in the 2 playoff scenarios in which Hakuryuho is also involved, but would be the favourite in them.
  • Needs Onosato under 12-3, Inami KK, Daieisho under 9-6 (this is what makes his route so unlikely), Okaryu KK, and any Noda result.
• #6 Yarimotsu (1.2%)
  • The least likely winner, despite 4 different options to win - two outright, two as playoff wins over Asashosakari. Would also tie in two other situations, but lose those to Asashosakari and Ryoshishokunin respectively.
  • Necessary and sufficient conditions: Inami KK, Daieisho under 9-6, Okaryu MK. Basically the even lower likelihood Okaryu flipside of Jejima's pathways. (With Onosato joining Noda in irrelevancy, but that doesn't make much of a difference in Yarimotsu's favour since it just adds the less likely side of Onosato's outcomes, i.e 12-3 achieved.)

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 12

The LKS home stretch got started off with collegiate talent Inami extending his debut KK streak to 7 tournaments. That was one of our three closest slots, with the pick of the 8:7 majority prevailing.

Four of the six yusho contenders predicted correctly, which was particularly bad news for Ryoshishokunin whose yusho hopes were completely reliant on Inami going makekoshi...all 6 routes now gone for him. Asashosakari also lost a whole bunch of options, 8 to be exact. Bunbukuchagama accounts for the last two scenarios that were eliminated although he had the correct Inami pick - they're outcomes in which his other picks are so strong that even getting Inami wrong wouldn't have stopped him from holding the lead.

To round up the other relevant results: Onosato won (10-2), Daieisho lost (8-4), and Okaryu lost as well (3-3).

The day also produced our third qualifier from the off-ballot ranks: Daiyusho is yet another injury returnee and has now secured his fifth straight KK. (Like aforementioned Mishima he's a rikishi who is already having his second comeback in just the last few years after the first one led straight into the next injury.)

The new standings with the first sole leader of the basho:

Day 12: 8/13 Decisions, TB 9-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	7	16
2	Asashosakari	6	14
2	Hakuryuho	6	14
4	Yarimotsu	6	15
5	Holleshoryu	5	12
6	Profomisakari	5	13
7	Ryoshishokunin	5	14
8	Jejima	5	16
9	Sakura	4	13
10	chishafuwaku	4	14
11	Athenayama	4	16
11	Oskanohana	4	17
13	Fashiritētā	3	14
14	ryafuji	3	15
15	WAKATAKE	1	11

Updated yusho odds:

• #1 Bunbukuchagama (34.4%); 4 scenarios
• #2 Hakuryuho (33.3%); 3+2 scenarios
• #3 Asashosakari (23.4%); 3 scenarios
• #4 Yarimotsu (6.3%); 4 scenarios
• #5 Jejima (2.6%); 0+2 scenarios

Bunbukuchagama takes the virtual lead as well as the real one thanks to Onosato's 10th win making his 12-3 target more likely; Hakuryuho's thumbs down vote on that slot is the only thing he and Bunbukuchagama differ on. Asashosakari and Yarimotsu also saw their odds improve thanks to that result, and further benefited from Okaryu dropping to 3-3.

Edited May 9 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 13

Also just one new decision today, and it was the one that was least in doubt, but it had significant impact regardless: Daieisho obtained the 9th win to reach his LKS target, eliminating Yarimotsu and Jejima from contention. Hakuryuho's minor share in Jejima's winning scenarios also went by the wayside, as did one (low odds) route each for Bunbukuchagama and Asashosakari.

Quite unusually nothing else of immediate relevance happened on Day 13. We have no less than five makushita-and-under rikishi at 3-3, but all of them saw their final match scheduled for Day 14. Nevertheless, the day also brought a loss for Onosato, and at 10-3 his 12-win target chase became more doubtful again.

Day 13: 9/13 Decisions, TB 9-15
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Bunbukuchagama	8	16
2	Asashosakari	7	14
2	Hakuryuho	7	14
4	Holleshoryu	6	12
5	Profomisakari	6	13
6	Ryoshishokunin	6	14
7	Yarimotsu	6	15
8	Sakura	5	13
9	chishafuwaku	5	14
10	Athenayama	5	16
10	Jejima	5	16
12	Fashiritētā	4	14
13	ryafuji	4	15
14	Oskanohana	4	17
15	WAKATAKE	2	11

Updated yusho odds:

• #1 Hakuryuho (56.25%); 3 scenarios
• #2 Asashosakari (25.0%); 2 scenarios
• #3 Bunbukuchagama (18.75%); 3 scenarios

Onosato's loss big-time pulling the weight for Hakuryuho's chances. Asashosakari moves ahead of Bunbukuchagama because one of his routes to victory actually doesn't rely on Onosato getting to 12 wins, while all of Bunbukuchagama's do.

In summary: Asashosakari wins if both Okaryu and Noda go makekoshi, regardless of Onosato's final score. Any other outcome for the two low-rankers will throw the yusho decision to the other contenders, with Hakuryuho winning on Onosato 10-5 or 11-4, and Bunbukuchagama on 12-3.

[Asashosakari 20,195]

Day 14

As indicated in the previous update a whole lot of LKS stuff was coming down to events on Day 14, and it turned out to be time for the final curtain already: Both Noda and Okaryu were defeated in their seventh bout to end up with hard-luck makekoshi, handing the Haru 2025 LKS yusho to Asashosakari! It's the winner's 13th career yusho, but only the second in the 2020's (after Aki 2022).

Meanwhile, Onosato kept his target chances alive with win #11 and Hakuoho secured his kachikoshi to remain in for the next ballot (and give every entrant a point, irrelevant as it was). The lower divisions were an almost complete wipeout: Top prospect Ishizaki and teenaged rookie Kyokutendo were also sent to MK, failing to enter the game for May. Only 25-year-old sandanme regular Tenei clinched an unlikely 5th straight KK to reach the next ballot, making it just four successful qualifiers out of the 11 that started.

The almost final standings:

Day 14: 12/13 Decisions, TB 11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	10	14
2	Bunbukuchagama	9	16
3	Hakuryuho	8	14
3	Yarimotsu	8	15
5	Athenayama	7	16
5	chishafuwaku	7	14
5	Fashiritētā	7	14
5	Holleshoryu	7	12
5	Profomisakari	7	13
5	Ryoshishokunin	7	14
5	Sakura	7	13
12	Jejima	6	16
12	ryafuji	6	15
14	Oskanohana	5	17
15	WAKATAKE	4	11

The jun-yusho is still partly up for grabs; Bunbukuchagama is already guaranteed to finish in second place, but Hakuryuho could still join him with an Onosato senshuraku loss.

KK spots are also still up for grabs. The four players on 8+ points have already secured their kachikoshi while the quartet on 6 or fewer is certain to end up MK, but the seven 7's depend on Onosato's final bout. Only Athenayama and Fashiritētā are part of the 12-win predictors, the other five entrants have to hope for a loss by the ozeki. The KK/MK split will thus be somewhat lopsided either way, at 9/6 or 6/9.

Edited May 9 by Asashosakari