Asashosakari 20,193 Posted January 9 (edited) Two tsunatori rikishi atop the LKS ballot to open 2025! But it's a very interesting lineup top to bottom, if I may say so. 1. Hoshoryu 18 [score?] 2. Kotozakura 17 [score?] 3. Onosato 10* [score?] 4. Wakatakakage 7 [score?] 5. Aonishiki 7* 6. Gyokuozan 6 7. Kaiseijo 5 8. Tochimaru 5 9. Matsui 5* 10. Inami 5* 11. Dewataikai 5 12. Ienoshima 5 13. Daieisho 4 [score?] 14. Hatsuyama 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 14 guys up there and the further 11 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (5 'veterans' + 4 newcomers from maezumo + tsukedashi duo Kusano and Okaryu), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 25. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 13 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST. ----- Simplified entry template: 1. Hoshoryu W-L 2. Kotozakura W-L 3. Onosato W-L 4. Wakatakakage W-L 5. Aonishiki KKMK 6. Gyokuozan KKMK 7. Kaiseijo KKMK 8. Tochimaru KKMK 9. Matsui KKMK 10. Inami KKMK 11. Dewataikai KKMK 12. Ienoshima KKMK 13. Daieisho W-L 14. Hatsuyama KKMK TB xx ----- Good luck! Edited January 9 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hakuryuho 335 Posted January 9 1. Hoshoryu 12-3 2. Kotozakura 12-3 3. Onosato 12-3 4. Wakatakakage 10-5 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan KK 7. Kaiseijo KK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai KK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho 8-7 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 332 Posted January 9 11 11 9 9 KK kk mk kk kk mk kk mk kk kk TB 15 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fashiritētā 209 Posted January 10 1. Hoshoryu 13-2 2. Kotozakura 12-3 3. Onosato 13-2 4. Wakatakakage 10-5 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan KK 7. Kaiseijo KK 8. Tochimaru MK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai KK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho 9-6 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted January 10 @Ryoshishokunin Score for Daieisho, please. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 332 Posted January 10 Bare KK. Sorry, could've marked that '8'. 5 hours ago, Asashosakari said: @Ryoshishokunin Score for Daieisho, please. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Profomisakari 909 Posted January 10 1. Hoshoryu 12 2. Kotozakura 13 3. Onosato 10 4. Wakatakakage 11 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai KK 12. Ienoshima KK 13. Daieisho 9 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Holleshoryu 17 Posted January 10 1. Hoshoryu 10-5 2. Kotozakura 13-2 3. Onosato 11-4 4. Wakatakakage 9-6 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru MK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai KK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho 9-6 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Athenayama 1,188 Posted January 10 1. Hoshoryu 11-4 2. Kotozakura 11-4 3. Onosato 12-3 4. Wakatakakage 10-5 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui MK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai KK 12. Ienoshima KK 13. Daieisho 8-7 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WAKATAKE 2,759 Posted January 11 Simplified entry template: 1. Hoshoryu 12-3 2. Kotozakura 9-6 3. Onosato 10-5 4. Wakatakakage 8-7 5. Aonishiki MK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo KK 8. Tochimaru MK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai MK 12. Ienoshima KK 13. Daieisho MK 14. Hatsuyama MK TB 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Oskanohana 357 Posted January 11 1. Hoshoryu 11-4 2. Kotozakura 10-5 3. Onosato 11-4 4. Wakatakakage 8-7 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru MK 9. Matsui MK 10. Inami MK 11. Dewataikai MK 12. Ienoshima KK 13. Daieisho 7-8 14. Hatsuyama MK TB 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,486 Posted January 11 1. Hoshoryu 8-7 2. Kotozakura 8-7 3. Onosato 8-7 4. Wakatakakage 8-7 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan KK 7. Kaiseijo KK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai KK 12. Ienoshima KK 13. Daieisho 8-7 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,523 Posted January 11 On 09/01/2025 at 07:36, Asashosakari said: Simplified entry template: 1. Hoshoryu 11-4 2. Kotozakura 10-5 3. Onosato 11-4 4. Wakatakakage 9-6 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan KK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai MK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho 8-7 14. Hatsuyama MK TB 15 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 958 Posted January 11 1. Hoshoryu 10-5 2. Kotozakura 10-5 3. Onosato 12-3 4. Wakatakakage 9-6 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan KK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami MK 11. Dewataikai MK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho 8-7 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 16 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryafuji 824 Posted January 11 1. Hoshoryu 13-2 2. Kotozakura 12-3 3. Onosato 11-4 4. Wakatakakage MK 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru KK 9. Matsui KK 10. Inami KK 11. Dewataikai MK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho 9-6 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted January 12 1. Hoshoryu 11 2. Kotozakura 11 3. Onosato 11 4. Wakatakakage 9 5. Aonishiki KK 6. Gyokuozan MK 7. Kaiseijo MK 8. Tochimaru MK 9. Matsui MK 10. Inami MK 11. Dewataikai MK 12. Ienoshima MK 13. Daieisho MK 14. Hatsuyama KK TB 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted January 12 10 Hoshoryu 10 Kotozakura 12 Onosato 10 Wakatakakage + Aonishiki - Gyokuozan - Kaiseijo + Tochimaru - Matsui - Inami - Dewataikai + Ienoshima 7 Daieisho + Hatsuyama TB 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yarimotsu 637 Posted January 21 sad I missed the signup, will be back next time 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 332 Posted January 27 I didn't miss the signup, but checking my results I'll be surprised if I did well. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted March 1 (edited) And as usual we're closer to the next basho than to this one... An additional apology to start off for the fact that I had neglected to mention that off-ballot rikishi Karino was on the Day 1 kyujo list and thus ended up getting excluded from the Hatsu edition. He ultimately did compete in five matches but finished makekoshi at 3-2-2 and got dropped altogether. The selection stats: Player Hosho K'zakura Onosato W'kage Aoni Gyoku Kaisei Tochi Matsui Inami Dewa Ieno Daiei Hatsu TB Cons Hakuryuho + 12-3 + 12-3 + 12-3 + 10-5 + + + + + + + - + 8-7 + 14 1.78 Ryoshishokunin - 11-4 + 11-4 - 9-6 - 9-6 + + - + + - + - + 8-7 + 15 1.47 Fashiritētā + 13-2 + 12-3 + 13-2 + 10-5 + + + - + + + - + 9-6 + 14 1.86 Profomisakari + 12-3 + 13-2 - 10-5 + 11-4 + - - + + + + + + 9-6 + 14 1.56 Holleshoryu - 10-5 + 13-2 - 11-4 - 9-6 + - - - + + + - + 9-6 + 12 1.42 Athenayama - 11-4 + 11-4 + 12-3 + 10-5 + - - + - + + + + 8-7 + 17 1.70 WAKATAKE + 12-3 - 9-6 - 10-5 - 8-7 - - + - + + - + - MK - 13 2.21 Oskanohana - 11-4 - 10-5 - 11-4 - 8-7 + - - - - - - + - MK - 12 2.01 Jejima - 8-7 - 8-7 - 8-7 - 8-7 + + + + + + + + + 8-7 + 16 1.61 Sakura - 11-4 - 10-5 - 11-4 - 9-6 + + - + + + - - + 8-7 - 15 1.61 Bunbukuchagama - 10-5 - 10-5 + 12-3 - 9-6 + + - + + - - - + 8-7 + 16 1.61 ryafuji + 13-2 + 12-3 - 11-4 - MK + - - + + + - - + 9-6 + 14 1.42 chishafuwaku - 11-4 + 11-4 - 11-4 - 9-6 + - - - - - - - - MK + 13 1.78 Asashosakari - 10-5 - 10-5 + 12-3 + 10-5 + - - + - - - + - MK + 13 1.93 5:9 8:6 5:9 5:9 13:1 6:8 4:10 9:5 10:4 9:5 7:7 6:8 10:4 11:3 Results + - (MK) - (KK) - (MK) + - - + - + - - + - No unanimous selections, not even on Aonishiki. Following their yusho and jun-yusho exploits in Kyushu, the two senior ozeki saw their target records bumped up from 10-5. Hoshoryu and Kotozakura in fact received very similar support at the top with each attracting five votes of 12-3 or better, but Kotozakura had bigger detractors further down which pulled his target to 11-4 (with a slight majority in favour), while Hoshoryu was placed with a 12-3 line (with a majority against). Onosato was given a big vote of confidence for his second ozeki appearance despite his lukewarm debut performance and earned a repeat of Kyushu's 12-3 target, albeit with fewer players expecting it now. Wakatakakage returned to the sanyaku ranks for the first time in almost two years and was given an optimistic 10-5 target by us. Incumbent Daieisho, who was coming off three straight 8-7's, received much less trust and ultimately got just the minimum 8-7 line that any ballot rikishi is subject to: Our picks had produced a selection tie between 9-6 (4 up, 10 down) and 8-7 (10 up, 4 down) - this was resolved as always by looking at the cumulative tie-breaker sum of 198 which, being even, served to select 8 wins for Daieisho to reach. (Side note: I was breathing a sigh of relief that only the Daieisho slot ended up requiring the tie-break, as the other four sanyaku were all just one different pick away from needing it, too.) With relatively few lopsided slots it's no surprise that there aren't any completely identical ballots, but Fashiritētā and Hakuryuho came close by differing only in their Tochimaru expectation. All other player pairs have at least three diverging picks. Oddly enough Hakuryuho also figures into the pair that showed the least agreement - he and Oskanohana have everything different except Aonishiki. (Obviously that means that Fashiritētā/Oskanohana also came in very low by agreeing only on Aonishiki and Tochimaru.) All in all the average pair of players shares 7.6 picks, so just over half the ballot. The most unusual individual ballot was once again produced by WAKATAKE, though it's not as much of an outlier as it normally is. Holleshoryu and ryafuji came in with the most average-looking entries, which voted against the majority in only one slot (Tochimaru and Hoshoryu, respectively). Not much agreement in this basho's tie-breaker choices. 14 turned out to be both the median and the mode (with only 4 picks), but all values from 12 to 16 were selected multiple times, alongside a single 17. Edited March 1 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted March 1 Day 6 A rather quick end came for Kotozakura's quest for 11 wins as he found himself with a dismal 1-5 record on this day. Good news for six players. Day 7 And an early MK outside the sekitori ranks as well, courtesy of Kaiseijo and his 0-4 start. That ended one of the more unlikely KK streaks ever, which had taken a low-makushita regular all the way to Ms6e out of nowhere. This result was largely expected and thus produced quite a few points. Better news away from the ballot where major high school prospect Noda started off 4-0 to earn his place in the next LKS edition. The first standings: Day 7: 2/14 Decisions, TB 1-23 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Oskanohana 2 12 2 Asashosakari 2 13 3 Sakura 2 15 4 Bunbukuchagama 2 16 5 Holleshoryu 1 12 6 chishafuwaku 1 13 6 WAKATAKE 1 13 8 Profomisakari 1 14 8 ryafuji 1 14 10 Ryoshishokunin 1 15 11 Jejima 1 16 12 Athenayama 1 17 13 Fashiritētā 0 14 13 Hakuryuho 0 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted March 1 Day 8 Nuthin' happenin' on nakabi. Day 9 It didn't take Aonishiki long to earn his - widely expected - 8th straight kachikoshi, giving a point to nearly everybody. A second off-ballot rikishi also clinched his KK; former sekitori Takakento has earned a trip to the LKS ballot for the third time in his career. (First as he started out in 2014, second in the run-up to his juryo debut in 2020/21.) Day 9: 3/14 Decisions, TB 3-23 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Asashosakari 3 13 2 Oskanohana 3 12 3 Sakura 3 15 4 Bunbukuchagama 3 16 5 chishafuwaku 2 13 6 Holleshoryu 2 12 6 Profomisakari 2 14 6 ryafuji 2 14 9 Ryoshishokunin 2 15 10 Jejima 2 16 11 Athenayama 2 17 12 WAKATAKE 1 13 13 Fashiritētā 1 14 13 Hakuryuho 1 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted March 1 Day 10 A double makekoshi in the lower divisions today, as we wave goodbye to Matsui and Gyokuozan. Just four entrants predicted Matsui's first-ever MK correctly, but all of them were also skeptical of Gyokuozan's chances, so that was a big day for them. Another quartet picked up only the Gyokuozan point, the remaining six left Day 10 scoreless. Two players have remained perfect through five decisions: Day 10: 5/14 Decisions, TB 3-21 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Oskanohana 5 12 2 Asashosakari 5 13 3 chishafuwaku 4 13 4 Athenayama 4 17 5 Holleshoryu 3 12 6 Profomisakari 3 14 6 ryafuji 3 14 8 Sakura 3 15 9 Bunbukuchagama 3 16 10 WAKATAKE 2 13 11 Ryoshishokunin 2 15 12 Jejima 2 16 13 Fashiritētā 1 14 13 Hakuryuho 1 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted March 2 (edited) Day 11 Some unexpectedly early results in the sanyaku ranks where Onosato and Wakatakakage missed out on their respective 12-3 and 10-5 targets with four days still to come. More than half the field picked up two points, but several players did whiff on both decisions. In addition the day brought kachikoshi for Hoshoryu, barely hanging on in his quest for 12 wins with a need to get four more wins in as many days. Two rikishi secured their tickets to the Haru ballot; fifth KK for 23-year-old collegiate star Kusano and same age but probably ex-prospect Yurikisho (sadly stalled out in sandanme after repeated injuries). Yet another 23-year-old, Chiyotaiho, has fallen short as of this day. Halfway done and one player's ballot continues to be undefeated: Day 11: 7/14 Decisions, TB 6-20 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Oskanohana 7 12 2 chishafuwaku 6 13 3 Asashosakari 5 13 4 Holleshoryu 5 12 4 ryafuji 5 14 6 Sakura 5 15 7 WAKATAKE 4 13 8 Profomisakari 4 14 9 Ryoshishokunin 4 15 10 Bunbukuchagama 4 16 10 Jejima 4 16 12 Athenayama 4 17 13 Fashiritētā 1 14 13 Hakuryuho 1 14 Edited March 2 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,193 Posted March 2 Day 12 More sanyaku news. Onosato is kachikoshi so we'll at least see him again and Daieisho also secured win #8, in his case equivalent to his LKS target and predicted by most entrants. Down in the juryo division it's a makekoshi for debutant Hatsuyama, to the delight of only a trio of players. And lastly two KKs were achieved in makushita, by former sekitori Tochimaru and collegiate rookie Inami; these were also majority predictions. An off-ballot trio also completed their Hatsu basho LKS campaigns, with Mishima completing 5 straight KKs (his second time), and Seihakuho and Imamura missing out on the next ballot. 5 players each posted either 2 or 3 points, the remaining quartet had more extreme results: Sakura led the way with the day's only perfect tally, Asashosakari and (uh-oh) Day 11 leader Oskanohana collected just one point, and chishafuwaku even went completely scoreless. And just like that we've gone from mid-game to almost finished, with a new leader announcing her presence: Day 12: 11/14 Decisions, TB 11-17 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Sakura 9 15 2 ryafuji 8 14 3 Oskanohana 8 12 4 Profomisakari 7 14 5 Holleshoryu 7 12 5 Jejima 7 16 7 Athenayama 7 17 8 Asashosakari 6 13 8 chishafuwaku 6 13 8 Ryoshishokunin 6 15 8 WAKATAKE 6 13 12 Bunbukuchagama 6 16 13 Hakuryuho 4 14 14 Fashiritētā 3 14 With the suddenly only three open slots it's going to be a somewhat quicker yusho race preview than usual...quicker to survey the possible scenarios anyway, not necessarily to write them up, as you'll see in a moment. None of the 6-pointers can still tie for the lead, but at 7 and 8 points it's only Holleshoryu who is already out of the running, so there are still 6 players who may finish at least tied for the basho's best score, and all of them are yusho-capable to varying degrees. We're starting things off with ozeki Hoshoryu at 9-3 (target 12-3) and lower-rankers Dewataikai and Ienoshima at 3-3. For the tie-breaker it's another pair of 3-3 toriteki plus Kotozakura (5-7) and Wakatakakage (6-6) in sanyaku. 12-3 Hoshoryu... KK Dewataikai... KK Ienoshima: Outright (!) victory for Profomisakari...he's the only contender with all three positive outcomes predicted, while the top 3 only have zero or one. MK Ienoshima: Tie between ryafuji (TB 14) and Sakura (15). They would, respectively, need two or three KKs by the four tie-break wrestlers to win by their TB predictions, while ryafuji would win on the other TB values courtesy of his superior Hoshoryu prediction. MK Dewataikai... KK Ienoshima: Tie between Oskanohana (12), ryafuji (14) and Sakura (15). Nearly the same as the previous scenario, except that Oskanohana would win if all four tie-break rikishi go makekoshi. MK Ienoshima: Another tie between ryafuji and Sakura, same details as before except that their TB predictions now need three / four additional KKs to hit. Less than 12-3 Hoshoryu... KK Dewataikai... KK Ienoshima: Tie between Athenayama (17), Jejima (16), Oskanohana (12 - impossible) and Sakura (15). They would need an additional 4 / 3 / - / 2 tie-break KKs for the yusho, with Oskanohana winning if it's one or zero KKs. MK Ienoshima: Outright victory for Sakura. MK Dewataikai... KK Ienoshima: Tie between Oskanohana (12) and Sakura (15). Sakura would win with 3 tiebreak KKs, Oskanohana with zero (by TB) and any other value (by brackets). MK Ienoshima: Outright victory for Sakura. The ever-popular coinflip approach to predicting all matches says this about the six players' respective yusho chances: 56.4% Sakura 28.7% Oskanohana 8.0% ryafuji 3.4% Jejima 3.1% Profomisakari 0.3% Athenayama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
