Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

the giant mess this banzuke is going to be

True. 

[Reonito 1,335]

Nishikigi/Asanoyama wouldn't be the weakest komusubi promotions in history, but they're not far from the weakest.

[Gurowake 3,923]

38 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Nishikigi/Asanoyama wouldn't be the weakest komusubi promotions in history, but they're not far from the weakest.

There seems to be an outsized number of double-digit losses the next basho from such promotees, which does make some sense.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

Nishikigi/Asanoyama wouldn't be the weakest komusubi promotions in history, but they're not far from the weakest.

This is a bit of coincidence, I think. If Kotonowaka loses one more bout, he stays at S, and WMH + Abi become a very respectable pair of K. 

This is not (yet) comparable to the times of multiple Yokozuna obliterating the joi on a regular basis.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

I'd love to see a metric that shows how much this banzuke feels like a reset to past banzukes. Aside from Kotonowaka moving up, Onosato's ascension (which in a way is just a rehash of Hakuoho, for the time present), and maybe a couple other movements, it just feels like we are reverting to old sekiwake, old komosubi, old m1, juryo demotees bouncing back and forth ... and when I say old I mean "very recent".

[Reonito 1,335]

10 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This is a bit of coincidence, I think. If Kotonowaka loses one more bout, he stays at S, and WMH + Abi become a very respectable pair of K. 

This is not (yet) comparable to the times of multiple Yokozuna obliterating the joi on a regular basis.

It's in the same vein: Y/O/S + WMH were a combined +43, and someone had to eat all those losses...

[Reonito 1,335]

2 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I'd love to see a metric that shows how much this banzuke feels like a reset to past banzukes. Aside from Kotonowaka moving up, Onosato's ascension (which in a way is just a rehash of Hakuoho, for the time present), and maybe a couple other movements, it just feels like we are reverting to old sekiwake, old komosubi, old m1, juryo demotees bouncing back and forth ... and when I say old I mean "very recent".

@Sumo Spiffy had a metric that tried to capture how much upward/downward pressure there was on a given banzuke; I don't quite remember the details but it's at least one way to look at it. Probably no single metric could capture what you're nodding at...

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

4 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It's in the same vein: Y/O/S + WMH were a combined +43, and someone had to eat all those losses...

Yes, but Ozeki promotions don't happen every day. Next basho, we might only have one sanyaku slot available (Abi's); WMH, Daieisho, and Asanoyama (health permitting) are expected to hold the fort. In such a situation, a single KK in the joi would be enough to avoid a ridiculous overpromotion.

[Reonito 1,335]

7 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Yes, but Ozeki promotions don't happen every day. Next basho, we might only have one sanyaku slot available (Abi's); WMH, Daieisho, and Asanoyama (health permitting) are expected to hold the fort. In such a situation, a single KK in the joi would be enough to avoid a ridiculous overpromotion.

It was pretty rare to have zero KK in the joi even in the top Y/O eras. 3+ vacancies in the S/K ranks is not very common either. Not sure what we're actually debating here, if anything 

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

20 minutes ago, Reonito said:

@Sumo Spiffy had a metric that tried to capture how much upward/downward pressure there was on a given banzuke; I don't quite remember the details but it's at least one way to look at it. Probably no single metric could capture what you're nodding at...

"number of guys changing title to reclaim their spot from one of the previous 2 basho"

[Reonito 1,335]

2 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

"number of guys changing title to reclaim their spot from one of the previous 2 basho"

probably need to combine a bunch of queries; here's one asking for K->M->K, take it from there if you'd like.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It was pretty rare to have zero KK in the joi even in the top Y/O eras. 3+ vacancies in the S/K ranks is not very common either. Not sure what we're actually debating here, if anything 

Well, I am not expecting ridiculous sanyaku overpromotions to become the norm. This isn't the 80's.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, I am not expecting ridiculous sanyaku overpromotions to become the norm. This isn't the 80's.

You're right, about half of the most extreme K overpromotions I posted since 1958 came in the 80's.

[Reonito 1,335]

We did have this beauty in 2015, with carnage in lower san'yaku and in the joi.

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

You're right, about half of the most extreme K overpromotions I posted since 1958 came in the 80's.

How about jumps straight to S?

Query result (sumogames.de)

[Reonito 1,335]

8 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

How about jumps straight to S?

Query result (sumogames.de)

Nice; probably a lot of the same basho (it does pick up the 2015 above). Sokahoko was one lucky boy!

[Bunbukuchagama 688]

Just now, Reonito said:

Sokahoko was one lucky boy!

He was indeed.

[Sakura 1,472]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

It was pretty rare to have zero KK in the joi even in the top Y/O eras. 3+ vacancies in the S/K ranks is not very common either. Not sure what we're actually debating here, if anything 

You could include promotions to Ozeki in your S/K vacancies. Of course, this doesn't let you know if any ranks were overfull in the first place,

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

@Sumo Spiffy had a metric that tried to capture how much upward/downward pressure there was on a given banzuke; I don't quite remember the details but it's at least one way to look at it. Probably no single metric could capture what you're nodding at...

The +43 you mentioned is the start of it, and usually the main factor. Kyujo losses below ozeki also add to the number, of which there were plenty, but non-kyujo losses that are beyond what someone needs to be demoted from the division subtracts. (Intais also factor in when relevant, but obviously that's not a part of this.)

I'll do the exact math when I get home. I should really remember the specifics of my own formula.

[Yamanashi 3,728]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

We did have this beauty in 2015, with carnage in lower san'yaku and in the joi.

What an odd combination of trends!  Aoiyama and Ichinojo reach their first Sekiwake, and crash.  Takayasu and Tochiozan at Komosubi, in their up-and-down periods.  Tamawashi reaches Komosubi for the first time from M9, 6 1/2 years after cracking Makuuchi; Myogiryu enters San'yaku from M8 and stays for 5 basho.  Okinoumi stretches from M6 all the way to Sekiwake, then kyujo the next basho down to M10.  Most interesting is Terunofuji (who had stalled at the top of Maegashira) using an 8-7 to reach Sekiwake; his following 13-2 J and 12-3 Y gave him 33 wins and the Ozeki rank.

[Reonito 1,335]

2 hours ago, Sakura said:

You could include promotions to Ozeki in your S/K vacancies. Of course, this doesn't let you know if any ranks were overfull in the first place,

That 1962 basho is pretty nuts! 8 S/K (which I believe is the record), 2 simultaneous Ozeki promotions, 5 demotions to M!

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

OK, here goes. This is designed to calculate the approximate total amount of positive or negative movement for makuuchi wrestlers going from one banzuke to the next. (The number is essentially always positive by design; on the rare occasions it's been negative, it's only been a small negative number, and the banzuke was still a disaster in those instances.) It's not exact—if it ever matches the actual amount of extra positive/negative movement across the division, it's half a miracle—but at minimum it acts as a point of comparison between banzukes with regards to how easy it is to fly up the ranks/minimize lost ranks.

Positive/Negative Movement Calculation

1. Calculate non-kyujo wins minus losses for yokozuna, ozeki, and winning sekiwake (losing sekiwake drop rank, so they're part of the normal flow).
2. If anyone below sekiwake has more wins over losses than ranks above them, take their W - L, subtract the number of ranks they could go up, and add that number.
3. Add kyujo losses for losing sekiwake and everyone below (yokozuna, ozeki, and winning sekiwake don't drop rank due to kyujo losses, so those are effectively meaningless).
4. Subtract extra losses for those whose records demote them out of the division (e.g. Takarafuji was 6-9, which is minus-3, but only needed to drop two ranks to leave the division, so for him we subtract one). This sometimes requires keeping track of how kyujo losses play into someone being mathematically demoted out of the division.
5. If anyone sekiwake or below goes intai, add the number of ranks below them (since everyone else will get bumped up for free), then include their wins minus losses (generally a negative number if they're going intai). If a yokozuna or ozeki goes intai, nothing needs to be done—their record is included in step one, and nobody moves up for free.
(Edit) 6. If the sanyaku is expected to change in size, add the number of maegashira ranks in the current banzuke for each slot the sanyaku will gain (since everyone moves up), and subtract the number for each slot the sanyaku will lose (since everyone will be forced down). If calculating this after the fact, add or subtract based on what actually happened rather than what's predicted.
(Edit) 7. If there were any makuuchi vs. juryo matches, calculate juryo wins minus makuuchi wins in those matchups, and include that in the calculation.

So, in this case...

Step one: 11 (13-2 Teru) plus 7 (11-4 Kiri) plus 6 (10-4 Hoshoryu) plus 11 (13-2 Koto) plus 3 (9-6 Daieisho).
11 + 7 + 6 + 11 + 3 = 38.

Step two: Only Wakamotoharu fits. 10-5 record (+5), with two ranks above him (M1 -> K -> S), and 5 - 2 = 3.
38 + 3 = 41.

Step three: 9 (Takayasu) plus 6 (Hokutofuji) plus 3 (Asanoyama) plus 9 (Hokuseiho). Aoiyama's kyujo losses are irrelevant since he's M17W and leaving the division.
41 + 9 + 6 + 3 + 9 = 68.

Step four: Subtract 6.5 (0-7-8 Aoiyama, M17W), 5.5 (4-11 Bushozan, M16W), 1 (6-9 Takarafuji, M16E), 2 (5-10 Tomokaze, M15E), 0.5 (5-10 Endo, M13W), 1 (2-4-9 Hokuseiho, M8E; the nine kyujos drop him to M17E mathematically, and he needs one rank of demotion from the 2-4 to finish the push into juryo, leaving one left over).
68 - 6.5 - 5.5 - 1 - 2 - 0.5 - 1 = 51.5.

There are no intais, so skip step five.

Step six: Kotonowaka should be promoted to ozeki, which will increase the sanyaku from eight to nine. Therefore, we add 17 ranks of positive movement.
51.5 + 17 = 68.5.

Step seven: Four juryo wins and one makuuchi win. 4 - 1 = 3.
68.5 + 3 = 71.5.

Unless I forgot something, the overall expectation is makuuchi wrestlers will enjoy 71.5 ranks of positive movement (overpromotions or underdemotions) among them.

Edited January 30 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,335]

23 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

There are no intais, so unless I forgot something, the overall expectation is makuuchi wrestlers will enjoy 51.5 ranks of positive movement (overpromotions or underdemotions) among them.

I don't know if you've been calculating these for recent basho; would be curious to know how this one compares.

[Sumo Spiffy 535]

16 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't know if you've been calculating these for recent basho; would be curious to know how this one compares.

Let me run them real quick. (EDIT: THESE ARE CORRECTED/BETTER EXPLAINED ON THE NEXT PAGE)

Kyushu 2022 (I know it makes more sense to start in Hatsu 2023, but this was the mega-disaster basho): 14 (Keisho/Shodai/Waka Prime/Hoshoryu) + 8 (Takayasu/Kotonowaka) - 20.5 (Terutsuyoshi/Atamifuji/Takarafuji) + 0.5 (Chiyotairyu) = +2 (kyujos often play a huge role in making movement easier and there were zero outside Terunofuji)

Hatsu 2023: 13 (Keisho/Waka Prime/Hoshoryu) + 11 (Kiri/Waka Deux/Daieisho) + 23.5 (Takayasu/Ichinojo/Tochinoshin) - 6.5 (Chiyomaru) - 1.5 (Okinoumi) = +26.5

Haru 2023: 13 (Keisho/Hoshoryu/Kiri) + 17 (Waka Deux/Daieisho/Shodai) + 7 (Waka Prime/Onosho) - 2.5 (Bushozan/Azumaryu) = +34.5

Natsu 2023: 38 (Teru/Keisho/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Waka Deux) + 35 (Waka Prime/Takayasu/Endo/Kotoshoho) - 8.5 (Kagayaki/Mitoryu/Ichiyamamoto) + 4 (Ichinojo) = +68.5 (this is the one with bonkers stuff like Hokuseiho going from M11E to M6E on 8-7)

Nagoya 2023: 12 (Teru/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Waka Deux) + 10 (Kotonowaka/Nishikigi/Tobizaru) + 8.5 (Asanoyama/Waka Prime) - 7.5 (Bushozan) = +23

Aki 2023: 22 (Kiri/Keisho/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Waka Deux/Kotonowaka) + 8 (Hakuoho) - 22.5 (Daishoho/Kagayaki/Chiyoshoma/Kotoshoho/Aoiyama) = +7.5

Kyushu 2023: 33 (Keisho/Kiri/Hoshoryu/Daieisho/Kotonowaka) + 1 (Takayasu) + 11 (Asanoyama/Takanosho) - 12.5 (Kitanowaka/Nishikifuji/Roga/Tohakuryu) = +32.5

If you have the "Rank next basho" option clicked when you look at these banzukes on sumodb, it becomes pretty clear that the lower the number here, the tighter the movement for the guys on the following banzuke.

Edited January 30 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,335]

10 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Let me run them real quick.

Thanks! Somehow I'm still out of reacts, an odd quirk of the forum. So this one is the second-luckiest of the past 8, and quite a lot luckier than what seems like the typical 30-ish banzuke. Which tracks with my first draft having things like 4-rank overpromotions.