Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Asashosakari 18,657]

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I guess the counter to this would be that it's his first sanyaku stint, and he's only been there for a year. That seemed to be the vibe when they turned down Takakeisho with 33/3 (9-13Y-11J), although his sanyaku experience was even less, plus the embarrassing nature of his senshuraku loss to Goeido seemed to count against him quite a bit. So with 12, the "quality of the sumo" in the two losses might enter into it.

Quíte a bit less for Takakeisho, with his unrecognized initial run comprising his first three sanyaku kachikoshi altogether. Kotonowaka's on seven straight KK since he reached the titled ranks, that's plenty of "work experience", IMHO. And it would be a bit odd to hold it against him that they all came successively, without any drop back to maegashira in between.

Edited January 26 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,657]

The closest semi-recent comparison is probably Dejima. 6 straight KK in what was his first proper sanyaku run (only one basho that ended with injury at 5-2 before that), and while he did hit 33 wins with 9-11-13 (and yusho), I would say the extra 11 that Kotonowaka has posted should be enough to convince them that 32-in-3 is sufficient. But sure, if he looks totally overmatched in his remaining three bouts and his one win is some sort of slippiotoshi, they've got enough wiggle room to push the decision to March.

However, I think it's much more likely that Kotonowaka looks good in losing three times (which wouldn't do anything for his promotion hopes, of course), than that he looks bad in winning one out of the three. And both scenarios are less likely than that he wins at least one and looks good.

[Reonito 1,296]

12 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Quíte a bit less for Takakeisho, with his unrecognized initial run comprising his first three sanyaku kachikoshi altogether. Kotonowaka's on seven straight KK since he reached the titled ranks, that's plenty of "work experience", IMHO. And it would be a bit odd to hold it against him that they all came successively, without any drop back to maegashira in between.

We're pretty much acting out the shimpan department discussion on Sunday, should he end with 12 

[Reonito 1,296]

Day 13

Yusho Race: After Terunofuji (11-2) dispatched Kotonowaka (11-2) in a bout that looked like Yokozuna vs. Sekiwake, and Kirishima (11-2) beat Hoshoryu (10-3) by the ultra-rare nimaigeri in the Ozeki duel, we have a 3-way tie at the top, with Hoshoryu one off the pace. The round-robin continues tomorrow with Terunofuji vs. Hoshoryu (9-0 head-to-head, and Hoshoryu had a bit of trouble getting up after his bout) and Kirishima vs. Kotonowaka (10-3 H2H, including the last four to the Ozeki). So going into day 15, we'll either have two 12-2 leaders and one 11-3 chaser (if Terunofuji wins), or one 12-2 leader and three 11-3 chasers. If the day 14 bouts go to form, we could get the dream yusho face-off between the Yokozuna and the top Ozeki in the musubi-no-ichiban on senshuraku, with Kirishima's promotion also on the line.

Kirishima's rope run: He can clinch promotion by winning out; the possibility of a 12-3 yusho is also still out there (I don't think 12-3 J would do it, and I am not sure about 12-3 D).

Lower san'yaku

• S1e Kotonowaka (11-2) will either be back at his current rank or vacate it via promotion. For the latter, he needs 13 wins by the numbers, but 12 would at least start a conversation.
• After his loss to Nishikigi, S1w Daieisho (7-6) still needs 1 more win to retain his rank; he is guaranteed to stay in san'yaku. I expect Daieisho to get his 8th tomorrow against ailing Kinbozan, who even tried a feeble henka today against Atamifuji, to no avail.
• Both komusubi slots are open.
• M1e Wakamotoharu (9-4) has cemented an immediate return to the named ranks; he'll be Sekiwake if Kotonowaka is promoted or Daieisho loses out. At least one more slot needs to be filled, and possibly two. We finally have some plausible candidates. After defeating off-brand Abi (Ichiyamamoto) today, the real M2w Abi (7-6) is one win from kachi-koshi, which could well be enough. M1w Atamifuji (6-7) is also in the picture if he can win out. Then we have M4e Tobizaru (7-6) and M5w Nishikigi (7-6). Should all somehow fail to get to 8, we do finally have some kachi-koshi above M12: M7w Asanoyama (8-2-3) returned and promptly picked up a win, and there's M9w Meisei (8-5) and M10e Tamawashi (8-5).

[Reonito 1,296]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

• Absent Aoiyama faces certain demotion.
• Absent M8e Hokuseiho (2-4-6) has a demotable record and will need to rely on banzuke luck.
• M16w Bushozan (4-9) and M15e Tomokaze (4-9) have demotable records.
• M16e Takarafuji (5-8) and M13w Endo (4-9) need 2 wins.
• Still looking for one more win are M12w Myogiryu (4-9) and M13e Churanoumi (5-8).

So that's four demotable records, and a decent likelihood of one or two more. How's the promotion queue looking?

• We have three promotable records: J2e Nishikifuji (9-4), J3e Roga (9-4), and J3w Kitanowaka (9-4).
• J1e Daiamami (7-6) and J1w Mitoryu (7-6) are a win away from joining them.
• J6e Tokihayate (9-4), yusho race leader rookie J10e Takerufuji (11-2), and J2w Tohakuryu (7-6) need to win out to have a case.

Tokihayate and Tohakuryu fight tomorrow, while Takerufuji takes on J14e Chiyosakae (6-7), who is trying to avoid demotion. Roga will try to open up more room when he visits Makuuchi to take on Endo.

[Reonito 1,296]

Juryo <-> Makushita

• J14w Tochimusashi (4-9) and J13e Yuma (3-10) now have completely unsalvageable records and will be fighting in Makushita in Osaka.
• J14e Chiyosakae (6-7), J12w Tenshoho (5-8), and J12e Chiyomaru (5-8) have no room for error.
• J11e Akua (5-8), whose score is now 1 kakenage win and 4 hilariously futile attempts, is on the "not quite safe" list, as is J4w Kotoeko (2-9-2).

The Makushita promotion queue is as follows:

1. Ms1w Wakatakakage (7-0 Y), who never once looked in danger of losing.
2. Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-2) with a win / Ms5w Hakuoho (6-1).
3. Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-2) with a loss / Ms5w Hakuoho (6-1).
4. Ms2w Kitaharima (3-3) with a win.
5. Ms5e Kiryuko (3-3) with a win.

So Wakatakakage is a lock, Tsushimanada can ensure promotion with a win, Hakuoko will return to the sekitori ranks unless a whole lot of results go against him (and Tsushimanada will probably fight one of the most-endangered guys on day 15, eliminating this possibility), while Kitaharima and Kiryuko must win and hope for a lot of losses by the incumbents. Tomorrow, Kitaharima visits Juryo to take on Akua, and then the torikumi committee will see how to sort out the potential exchanges on senshuraku.

[Gurowake 3,874]

5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

• Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-2) with a win / Ms5w Hakuoho (6-1).
• Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-2) with a loss / Ms5w Hakuoho (6-1).
• Ms2w Kitaharima (3-3) with a win.

Have you looked for cases where 4-3 Ms2[e or w] had a different promotion outcome than 6-1 Ms5w?  I have a feeling the former might actually be more likely to be promoted, just due to bias towards higher ranked rikishi.

[Reonito 1,296]

47 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Have you looked for cases where 4-3 Ms2[e or w] had a different promotion outcome than 6-1 Ms5w?  I have a feeling the former might actually be more likely to be promoted, just due to bias towards higher ranked rikishi.

I tried. There are very few instances of a 6-1 Ms5 failing to make juryo in the last 30 years, and in all cases it was either a 4-3 Ms1 who went up, or 5-2 or better from Ms2 or higher. Overall, 4-3 at Ms2e is a lot more likely to get left in makushita (46J-17M) than 6-1 at Ms5w (11J-1M, or 20J-4M if you expand it to Ms5e/w), so that's what I'm basing the order on.

Edited January 26 by Reonito

[Bunbukuchagama 675]

8 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Have you looked for cases where 4-3 Ms2[e or w] had a different promotion outcome than 6-1 Ms5w?  I have a feeling the former might actually be more likely to be promoted, just due to bias towards higher ranked rikishi.

I see a case in Haru 2009 when a Ms5e 6-1 was promoted instead of a Ms2w 4-3. Looking for more now.

[Bunbukuchagama 675]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I see a case in Haru 2009 when a Ms5e 6-1 was promoted instead of a Ms2w 4-3. Looking for more now.

A similar one in Haru 1998.

...And a Ms5w 6-1 over Ms2e in Natsu 1994.

The sample size is very small, but I would dare to guess that Hakuoho has a tiny advantage.

Edited January 26 by Bunbukuchagama

[Reonito 1,296]

If Tsushimanda is scheduled against an endangered incumbent on day 15 and loses, and there end up being only two slots, that loss should count against him in the decision. And Hakuoho won the head-to-head. Not that it's remotely likely that all of the endangered guys collect all the wins they need for safety. We are more likely to be looking at more demotable than promotable records, potentially even bringing Ms8e Onokatsu (5-1) into play.

Edited January 26 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,296]

Just a note that given my schedule tomorrow, the day 14 updates will be quite late.

[Sakura 1,462]

I haven't calculated the probabilities exactly, but , assuming a coin flip for each match, it looks as though Kirishima has the slightly higher probability of winning the yusho. This is because if both Terunofuji and Kotonowaka win out they have to face each other in a playoff, whereas Kirishima winning out guarantees him the yusho. Hoshoryu's hopes depend on winning out and having Kirishima lose one to be involved in a 3-way playoff.

There are 4 cases where Kirishima wins ouright, 3 where Terunofuji wins outright, 3 where Kotonowaka wins outright, one is Terunofuji vs Kotonowaka playoff and the other 5 are are 3-way playoffs. 

Of those 3-way playoffs, 1 does not involve Terunofuji, 1 does not involve Kirishima, 1 does not involve Kotonowaka and the other 2 don't involve Hoshoryu.

[Reonito 1,296]

1/4 Kirishima and Terunofuji win, the yusho is a straight fight between them, 1/8 probability for each.

1/4 Terunofuji wins, Kirishima loses -> 1/16 Terunofuji yusho, 1/16 Kotonowaka yusho, 1/16 two-way playoff between them, 1/16 3-way playoff w/ Hoshoryu Kirishima.

1/4 Kirishima wins, Terunofuji loses -> 1/8 Kirishima yusho, 1/8 3-way playoff, 50:50 whether the 3rd is Hoshoryu/Kotonowaka.

1/4 Kirishima and Terunofuji lose -> 1/8 Kotonowaka yusho, 1/8 3-way playoff, 50:50 whether the 3rd is Terunofuji/Kirishima.

31.25% Kirishima, 30.2% Terunofuji, 30.2% Kotonowaka, 8.35% Hoshoryu (30/96, 29/96, 29/96, 8/96).

Edited January 27 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,296]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

31.25% Kirishima, 30.2% Terunofuji, 30.2% Kotonowaka, 8.35% Hoshoryu (30/96, 29/96, 29/96, 8/96).

Interesting that the slight edge goes to the 11-2 guy who still has to fight the other two 11-2 guys (assuming coin flips, of course).

[Asashosakari 18,657]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

1/4 Terunofuji wins, Kirishima loses -> 1/16 Terunofuji yusho, 1/16 Kotonowaka yusho, 1/16 two-way playoff between them, 1/16 3-way playoff w/ Hoshoryu.

Kirishima in the 3-way there, I believe?

[Reonito 1,296]

2 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Kirishima in the 3-way there, I believe?

Oops! Assuming I propagated that through, +2% for Kirishima, –2% for Hoshoryu.

[Sakura 1,462]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

31.25% Kirishima, 30.2% Terunofuji, 30.2% Kotonowaka, 8.35% Hoshoryu (30/96, 29/96, 29/96, 8/96).

My back of the envelope scribblings were correct. Which is nice to know.

23 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Interesting that the slight edge goes to the 11-2 guy who still has to fight the other two 11-2 guys (assuming coin flips, of course).

Due to the fact that if Kirishima wins out he takes the yusho (by giving the other 11-2 guys each a loss), whereas Terunofuji or Kotonowaka winning out wouldn't guarantee the yusho (since if they both did, it would be a playoff)

[Bunbukuchagama 675]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

potentially even bringing Ms8e Onokatsu (5-1) into play

This doesn't seem possible.

[Seiyashi 4,068]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

Just a note that given my schedule tomorrow, the day 14 updates will be quite late.

I'm back in action and can pick up the day 14 slack. 

[Reonito 1,296]

29 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This doesn't seem possible.

Suppose Kitaharima loses tomorrow, and Chiyosakae, Tenshoho, Chiyomaru all lose (possible and maybe even likely, given the torikumi). All 3 will be within a loss of having to go down, and they can't meet. Suppose one of them beats (or loses to) Kiryuko, so the winner of that bout stays, and the other two lose. Either someone gets to stay despite missing the safety target by two wins, or they need an unconventional promotion...

[Bunbukuchagama 675]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Either someone gets to stay despite missing the safety target by two wins,

This is what I would expect to happen. Ms8 is just too low.

[Reonito 1,296]

To put it another way, Tochimusashi can't stay, and neither can Yuma. Chiyosakae can't stay with two more losses. There's one instance of a 5-10 J12e getting a reprieve, so maybe if Chiyosakae, Chiyomaru, and Tenshoho all lose out, and there are only 3 promotion candidates in Ms1-Ms5, someone will be a very lucky boy.

[Reonito 1,296]

5 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This is what I would expect to happen. Ms8 is just too low.

You're probably right; here's the full list of unconventional promotions since the divisions went to their current size, not counting the scandal years.

[Reonito 1,296]

Hearing Hoshoryu is kyujo, maybe unsurprising given the end of today's bout. I wasn't really considering him against Terunofuji a coin flip, but the Yokozuna's odd definitely just went up.