Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Katooshu 3,201]

I'd guess Chiyomaru stays

Edited January 28, 2024 by Katooshu

[Seiyashi 4,074]

48 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

I'd guess Chiyomaru stays

Shouldn't that be Akua? 6-9 J11 has not been demoted since 2014, as compared to 5-10 J12 which last didn't go down in 2005.

The exchanges should probably be Tochimusashi, Yūma, Tenshōhō, and Chiyomarusakae for Wakatakakage, Tsushimanada, Kitaharima and Hakuōhō. It's neatened out quite unambiguously now.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Seiyashi

[Katooshu 3,201]

I assume Akua is already safe - which I also assume is why maglor didn't list him in the post I was responding.

You don't include Chiyosakae?

Ya I'd guess Chiyomaru at J12e 5-10 stays over him at J14e 6-9.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Katooshu

[Seiyashi 4,074]

Ah ok I see what you mean.

I wonder if there's an outside chance Ōnokatsu comes up instead of Chiyomaru, or whether that's a stretch too far.

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I wonder if there's an outside chance Ōnokatsu comes up instead of Chiyomaru, or whether that's a stretch too far

No chance.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

Not going to bother with a full table, but the exchange pictures work out as such (barring any retirement announcements by e.g. Takarafuji and Aoiyama):

Sanyaku - joi

3 slots will open by virtue of Kotonowaka - or should that now be Kotozakura II - being promoted. Daieishō will slide over to S1e next basho while Wakamotoharu will reclaim his old S1w rank. Abi will lock one of the open komusubi slots, while it's a toss up between Nishikigi and Asanoyama for the last slot. Both lost today and compute only to M4 - quite a sad overpromotion if that is the case - but are also the only remaining KKs anywhere near the joi. I think Nishikigi gets it by virtue of the higher rank and harder schedule.

Sotto voce - the joi next banzuke will be hell to fill, as with any basho where the sanyaku are collectively taking names and kicking ass. 

Makuuchi - jūryō

Up to 6 exchanges may happen: Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Hokuseihō, and possibly Endō. The corresponding promotions would be Nishikifuji, Kitanowaka, Rōga, Daiamami, Tōhakuryū, and possibly Takerufuji. My bet is that Endō is saved despite being eminently demotable, and Takerufuji has to wait one more basho for promotion because of how lowly-ranked he is, for 5 exchanges total.

Jūryō - makushita

Chiyomaru and Akua get a reprieve. Tochimusashi, Chiyosakae, Yūma, and Tenshōhō will go down, in exchange for Wakatakakage (total overkill), Tsushimanada, Kitaharima, and Hakuōhō. 

[Hakuryuho 334]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Jūryō - makushita

Chiyomaru and Akua get a reprieve. Tochimusashi, Chiyosakae, Yūma, and Tenshōhō will go down, in exchange for Wakatakakage (total overkill), Tsushimanada, Kitaharima, and Hakuōhō. 

So happy for Kitaharima, last time he was in Juryo was in Aki 2020 and has been relentlessly fighting to regain sekitori status.
Gonna be at least 27 basho as a sekitori for him now, so very close to being kabu-eligible. 

[Bunbukuchagama 706]

10 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Tōhakuryū

He is not promotable. Not ahead of Takerufuji, at least.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Bunbukuchagama

[Seiyashi 4,074]

9 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He is not promotable. 

He has a promotable record, even if it isn't by the numbers. The existence of enough horrific records in makuuchi makes sure of that.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j2&form1_wins=8&form1_losses=7&offset=100

If the compute to J1 is a hard bar to promotion none of these would have been promoted - and the most recent only last Aki.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Seiyashi

[Tigerboy1966 1,433]

25 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

the joi next banzuke will be hell to fill

Not kidding. There will be some spectacular over-promotions... Meisei, Hiradoumi, Oho, Tsurugisho, Takanosho etc.

[Sakura 1,487]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Makuuchi - jūryō

Up to 6 exchanges may happen: Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Takarafuji, Tomokaze, Hokuseihō, and possibly Endō. The corresponding promotions would be Nishikifuji, Kitanowaka, Rōga, Daiamami, Tōhakuryū, and possibly Takerufuji. My bet is that Endō is saved despite being eminently demotable, and Takerufuji has to wait one more basho for promotion because of how lowly-ranked he is, for 5 exchanges total.

Takerufuji has a promotable record and Tohakuryu doesn't (by the numbers at least - we all know that it can happen). Because of this, it's possible that Takerufuji will get promoted ahead of Tohakuryu. 

[lackmaker 437]

22 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

23 hours ago, lackmaker said:

how many wins are required to force a sanyaku slot from m1e?

Theoretically a KK will do. 

but how many to force an extra slot when none is available 

[Seiyashi 4,074]

6 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

but how many to force an extra slot when none is available 

A KK will do.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202207

[maglor 122]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

He has a promotable record, even if it isn't by the numbers. The existence of enough horrific records in makuuchi makes sure of that.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=j2&form1_wins=8&form1_losses=7&offset=100

If the compute to J1 is a hard bar to promotion none of these would have been promoted - and the most recent only last Aki.

Well of course any juryo KK is a "promotable record", as long as enough maku guys fall or retire. But pretty much all of those promotions happened as they should by the numbers - and recently a j2 8-7 stayed down for a j6 11-4. 

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201607#J Here a 13-2 J11 goes up in favor of a 8-7 J3. 

I think Takerufuji goes up - if it comes down to two Juryo guys with strong promotable records, I think they'd probably prioritize the high Juryo guy even if the J10 has a better numerical record, but I can't see them promote someone without a strong numerical case instead of Takerufuji

[Koorifuu 939]

As fun as it is to have Akua performing every day, saving his slot via blatant uncalled matta tastes sour.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Koorifuu

[Ripe 71]

Shouldn't Hokuseiho be behind Endo in demotion lineup? "Just" three more wins from 11 ranks down doesn't seem like enough...

That said, didn't they tend to keep someone in rather then promote someone with barely promotable record?

[lackmaker 437]

18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

A KK will do.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202207

surely that's just a promotion to replace the promoted Hoshoryu

[Seiyashi 4,074]

1 minute ago, lackmaker said:

surely that's just a promotion to replace the promoted Hoshoryu

It depends on how you read Ichinojō's result. Is Ichinojō the K replacement or is Kirishima?

[Hankegami 491]

1 minute ago, lackmaker said:

surely that's just a promotion to replace the promoted Hoshoryu

Nope, Kiribayama got a K2w slot with his 8-7 from M1e. The numerary K1w slot went to Yusho winner Ichinojo (M2w). See the following Aki 2022 banzuke.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

4 minutes ago, Ripe said:

Shouldn't Hokuseiho be behind Endo in demotion lineup? "Just" three more wins from 11 ranks down doesn't seem like enough...

That said, didn't they tend to keep someone in rather then promote someone with barely promotable record?

Not by the numbers? Hokuseihō at 2-13 computes to M19, while Endō computes to M18. Hokuseihō will get pushed first before Endō, especially since there's precedent for saving a 5-10 M13 but not a 2-13 M8.

As for the latter point, depends on whether you think Tōhakuryū or Takerufuji is more promotable. My gut feel is that Takerufuji is too deep to be a shoo-in promotion and Tōhakuryū is "safer", even though Takerufuji has a better rank-record combination.

[Seiyashi 4,074]

4 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Nope, Kiribayama got a K2w slot with his 8-7 from M1e. The numerary K1w slot went to Yusho winner Ichinojo (M2w). See the following Aki 2022 banzuke.

Who took the haridashi slot is not necessarily an indicator of who "forced" the slot. The logic could well be that Ichinojō was the one who forced the slot but his far superior result justified placing him above Kirishima, who at M1e with 8-7 should generally always be promoted. But either way, the general correlation that KK at M1e == komusubi promotion still holds (I think there was a minor to-do about a KK M1e not getting a promotion within the last 5 years).

It's a different type of "forcing" than we're used to think about in the context of 11-win komusubi going to sekiwake, which is usually much more clear cut. I'm not sure the two situations are directly comparable.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Seiyashi

[lackmaker 437]

3 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

Nope, Kiribayama got a K2w slot with his 8-7 from M1e. The numerary K1w slot went to Yusho winner Ichinojo (M2w). See the following Aki 2022 banzuke.

maybe I'm wrong then but thought m1e had to get the vacancy and Ichinojo forced an extra slot

[maglor 122]

The Tobizaru promotion is more applicable - surely no disagreement that Tobizaru forced a spot open there

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202301#M

[Hankegami 491]

41 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

As for the latter point, depends on whether you think Tōhakuryū or Takerufuji is more promotable. My gut feel is that Takerufuji is too deep to be a shoo-in promotion and Tōhakuryū is "safer", even though Takerufuji has a better rank-record combination.

I don't get how Tohakuryu's promotion is even a thing. The Juryo-Makuuchi promotion lineup is Nishikifuji (J-3e), Kitanowaka (J-2w), Takerufuji (J-1e), Daiamami (J0e), and Roga (J0e). Daiamami is also a special case since he gave a KK from J1e (see below). Tohakuryu gave a (J1w) case and in normal circumstances he would take over Mitoryu's spot. He's also sixth in the promotion queue, and his exchange would be (M18w) Endo. Now, I think we all agree that at present the Committee prefers to keep people up than kick them down. They also have already five perfectly justifiable exchanges. I find difficult to believe they are going to force a sixth by over-promoting Tohakuryu by 1.5 ranks instead to under-demoting and keeping Endo by the same 1.5 ranks (M17e).

39 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Who took the haridashi slot is not necessarily an indicator of who "forced" the slot. The logic could well be that Ichinojō was the one who forced the slot but his far superior result justified placing him above Kirishima, who at M1e with 8-7 should generally always be promoted.

It's a different type of "forcing" than we're used to think about in the context of 11-win komusubi going to sekiwake, which is usually much more clear cut. I'm not sure the two situations are directly comparable.

I think we are on the same page here, but I write my opinion for completeness. In that case, Ichinojo had a projected M-7w spot, while Kiribayama had a M0e, so Ichinojo had absolute precedence to fill the only vacant Komusubi slot. Now, a 8-7 is usually considered a get-go for "you're not going to be demoted". There are plenty of cases in which an 8-7 stays still at his old rank because of banzuke lack-of-luck. However, Kiribayama being moved up there shows that a 8-7 M1e must be moved up to Komusubi. I think that the mere fact that he was placed at K2w while Ichinojo was awarded K1w shows that Kiribayama was the one who forced an extra spot.

EDIT: I just realized that it could have been also the other way around, sorry. Kirishima had absolute precedence for a slot, but they couldn't deny one to Ichinojo with his result. Anyway, I understand that the golden rule appears to be that a KK at the uppermost rank of each division or sub-division (san'yaku, Makuuchi, Juryo, etc) forces the promotion to the aforementioned KK recipient - see for Instance 8-7 J1e Aoiyama last basho. Intra-san'yaku rules are, of course, different.

Edited January 28, 2024 by Hankegami

[Gurowake 4,034]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

it's a toss up between Nishikigi and Asanoyama for the last slot. Both lost today and compute only to M4 - quite a sad overpromotion if that is the case - but are also the only remaining KKs anywhere near the joi. I think Nishikigi gets it by virtue of the higher rank and harder schedule.

Arguments in favor of Asanoyama:

Nishikigi only had one sanyaku opponent Asanoyama didn't, so really Nishikigi's schedule wasn't all that different from Asanoyama's considering the higher rank. 

Asanoyama returned to the tournament after taking some time off, scoring a KK he didn't have when he left.  I think the Kyokai *really* likes this when it happens.