Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[Reonito 1,295]

Day 10

Yusho Race: we all know the arasoi, and it's too early to start going through the permutations.

Kirishima's rope run: at 8-2, he probably needs to win out, although a 12-3 yusho is not out of the realm of possibility.

Lower san'yaku

• S1e Kotonowaka (9-1) will either be back at his current rank or vacate it via promotion. For the latter, he needs 13 wins by the numbers, but a 12-3 yusho could do it.
• S1w Daieisho (6-4) needs 2 more wins to retain his rank; 1 more will keep him in san'yaku. After Kirishima tomorrow and (presumably) the Yokozuna on day 12, he should be done with the hard part of the schedule, although he could be drafted into stopping hiramaku yusho contenders if needed.
• Both komusubi slots are open.
• M1e Wakamotoharu needs one more win to cement a return to the named ranks; there is a long list of unconvincing contenders for the second and any subsequent open slots.

Edited January 24 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,295]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

• Absent Aoiyama faces certain demotion.
• Absent M8e Hokuseiho (2-4-4) has a demotable record and will need to rely on banzuke luck.
• M15e Tomokaze (2-8) must win out for safety.
• M16w Bushozan (4-6) and M13w Endo (3-7) need 3 wins.
• M16e Takarafuji (5-5), M12w Myogiryu (3-7), and M17e Shimazuumi (6-4) need 2 wins.
• Not quite safe are M11e Tsurugisho (4-6), M13e Churanoumi (5-5), and (surprise!) M6w Shonannoumi (1-9).

As for those vying to take their places:

• J3e Roga (8-2) needs one more win for a promotable record.
• J2e Nishikifuji (7-3) and J3w Kitanowaka (7-2) need 2 wins.
• J6e Tokihayate (8-2) and the J1 pair—Daiamami and Mitoryu, both 5-5—need 3 wins.
• Yusho leader rookie J10e Takerufuji (9-1) needs 4 by the numbers, and probably needs higher-ranked contenders to falter. A few others (Tohakuryu, Shirokuma, Chiyoshoma, Kagayaki) could sneak into the promotion picture by winning out.

[Asashosakari 18,651]

And a sanyaku size change would occur if Kotonowaka makes ozeki, potentially leading to the ever-popular "is calculating to M17w good or bad news for the rikishi in question?" discussion.

Edited January 24 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,295]

Juryo <-> Makushita

• J14w Tochimusashi (3-7) has zero room for error.
• J13e Yuma (3-7) and J14e Chiyosakae (4-6) can only afford one more loss.
• J13w Oshoumi, J12w Tenshoho, and J12e Chiyomaru all have 4 wins and need 3 more for safety.
• J11e Akua (4-6) needs 2 wins.

Then we come to higher-ranked endangered incumbents. J8e Shimanoumi (4-6) technically needs one more win, but who are we kidding? His west-side counterpart, Shiden, is not quite safe with the same record. And with only 1 win before he pulled out, J4w Kotoeko is very likely to drop unless he is able to renter and pick up a win or two.

On the Makushita side, Ms1w Wakatakakage (5-0) is a lock to go up, and Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-1) has probably done enough to join him. Ms1e Kayo (2-3) must win out. Wily veteran Ms2w Kitaharima (3-3) will also have to win his final bout. Ms5w Hakuoho (4-1) probably needs 6 wins to ensure re-promotion. Finally, Ms4e Chiyonoumi (2-3) and Ms5e Kiryuko (2-3) must win the rest of their bouts and hope for good banzuke luck; everyone else is out of even theoretical contention.

Chiyonoumi visits Juryo tomorrow to take on Tenshoho, while Kayo-Kiryuko and Tsushimanada-Hakuoho go head-to-head.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

20 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

And a sanyaku size change would occur if Kotonowaka makes ozeki

WMH could get back to Sekiwake with an 8-7 record.  And they would have to scrape the bottom of the barrel to get 2 Komusubi.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

It's extraordinarily unlikely, but things are so rough, I wonder if Daieisho could become the first sekiwake to go 6-9 and not get booted out of the sanyaku. It already looks like 7-8 could keep him at sekiwake, at least if Kotonowaka gets promoted. (He'd also be the first 7-8 sekiwake to not take any demotion; the others all shifted from east to west.)

I like Atamifuji, but even I think that if he goes on a run and ends up as a sekiwake with an 8-7 comeback, it'll be... not entirely earned. Or at least that he'll have a lot to prove in March.

[Reonito 1,295]

17 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's extraordinarily unlikely, but things are so rough, I wonder if Daieisho could become the first sekiwake to go 6-9 and not get booted out of the sanyaku. It already looks like 7-8 could keep him at sekiwake, at least if Kotonowaka gets promoted. (He'd also be the first 7-8 sekiwake to not take any demotion; the others all shifted from east to west.)

I remember looking this up, and they've pulled up some very marginal maegashira records to bump a 6-9 sekiwake out of san'yaku, so I don't think that's happening. When we had a bigger/better Y/O corps, the lower san'yaku and the joi used to get wiped out on a regular basis. Someone in the upper/mid-maegashira has to KK, right? Right? [Insert Anakin/Padme meme here]

23 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I like Atamifuji, but even I think that if he goes on a run and ends up as a sekiwake with an 8-7 comeback, it'll be... not entirely earned. Or at least that he'll have a lot to prove in March.

I'd say if he can go on a run like that, he'll have earned it, and it would be very far from the worst sekiwake promotion in history.

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'd say if he can go on a run like that, he'll have earned it, and it would be very far from the worst sekiwake promotion in history.

Certainly not the worst, but I think it's the kind of run—especially given the likely opposition—that would be reminiscent of Ura last basho. He definitely earned his komusubi spot, but if things had swung so he reached sekiwake instead, even us fans of him would probably be like, "He's a what?" That's kind of my feeling with Atamifuji right now.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

26 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Certainly not the worst, but I think it's the kind of run—especially given the likely opposition—that would be reminiscent of Ura last basho. He definitely earned his komusubi spot, but if things had swung so he reached sekiwake instead, even us fans of him would probably be like, "He's a what?" That's kind of my feeling with Atamifuji right now.

So, you'd expect Atamifuji to get as thorough of a beating as the one Ura is getting now? 

[Sumo Spiffy 521]

25 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

So, you'd expect Atamifuji to get as thorough of a beating as the one Ura is getting now? 

I mean, the only sanyaku he beat was Daieisho. I might not expect a complete beatdown, but he'd still have to show he can win a few of those fights.

[maglor 122]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's extraordinarily unlikely, but things are so rough, I wonder if Daieisho could become the first sekiwake to go 6-9 and not get booted out of the sanyaku. It already looks like 7-8 could keep him at sekiwake, at least if Kotonowaka gets promoted. (He'd also be the first 7-8 sekiwake to not take any demotion; the others all shifted from east to west.)

I like Atamifuji, but even I think that if he goes on a run and ends up as a sekiwake with an 8-7 comeback, it'll be... not entirely earned. Or at least that he'll have a lot to prove in March.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198403#M

Here's a 6-9S being demoted in favor of a 8-7M4; I'm sure someone can scrape together a similar result

[Yamanashi 3,673]

11 minutes ago, maglor said:

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=198403#M

Here's a 6-9S being demoted in favor of a 8-7M4; I'm sure someone can scrape together a similar result

 ... and this guy's previous high as a Komosubi went: M6W 8-7 -> M2W 8-7 -> K1W.  Career-wise, 2 basho as K, 1 as S, and only 1 basho at M1!

[WAKATAKE 2,613]

Lower Division yusho arasoi:

Makushita (6-0) - Ms1W Wakatakakage vs Ms41W Haruyama

Sandanme (6-0) - Sd26W Fujiseiun vs Sd44W Takashoki

Jonidan (6-0) - Jd10E Aonishiki, Jd16E Mogamizakura, Jd74W Chiyotaiko

Jonokuchi (6-0) - Jk15W Anhibiki
Jonokuchi (5-1) - Jk15E Kyokukaiyu

For the lower two divisions, likely to be Aonishiki vs Mogamizakura, with Chiyotaiko facing Anhibiki. A win for Anhibiki would seal the Jonokuchi yusho for him while the winner of the other match takes the Jonidan division. If Chiyotaiko wins, we have a Jonidan playoff. In that scenario, if Kyokukaiyu wins he could also force a Jonokuchi playoff. If he loses, Anhibiki takes the division regardless.

[Koorifuu 858]

11 hours ago, WAKATAKE said:

Lower Division yusho arasoi:

Makushita (6-0) - Ms1W Wakatakakage vs Ms41W Haruyama

Sandanme (6-0) - Sd26W Fujiseiun vs Sd44W Takashoki

Jonidan (6-0) - Jd10E Aonishiki, Jd16E Mogamizakura, Jd74W Chiyotaiko

Jonokuchi (6-0) - Jk15W Anhibiki
Jonokuchi (5-1) - Jk15E Kyokukaiyu

For the lower two divisions, likely to be Aonishiki vs Mogamizakura, with Chiyotaiko facing Anhibiki. A win for Anhibiki would seal the Jonokuchi yusho for him while the winner of the other match takes the Jonidan division. If Chiyotaiko wins, we have a Jonidan playoff. In that scenario, if Kyokukaiyu wins he could also force a Jonokuchi playoff. If he loses, Anhibiki takes the division regardless.

Shoutout to Anhibiki (Hasegawa), who rejected his sandanme tsukedashi - solid debut, beating Kyokukaiyu (Dalaibaatar) who was a strong collegiate sumo competitor, and oft-injured Chiyodaigo, who is usually of upper-mid makushita standard when healthy.

[Reonito 1,295]

Day 11

Yusho Race: how nice is it to have the top four rikishi on the banzuke leading the yusho race? The last time we had 4 wrestlers in the top 3 ranks with 9+ wins after day 11 was Haru of 2019!

Kirishima's rope run: at 9-2, he probably needs to win out, although a 12-3 yusho is not out of the realm of possibility.

Lower san'yaku

• S1e Kotonowaka (10-1) will either be back at his current rank or vacate it via promotion. For the latter, he needs 13 wins by the numbers, but a 12-3 yusho could do it.
• S1w Daieisho (6-5) needs 2 more wins to retain his rank; 1 more will keep him in san'yaku. He gets to skip Terunofuji and should find the opposition easier from here on out.
• Both komusubi slots are open.
• M1e Wakamotoharu (8-3) has cemented an immediate return to the named ranks. M1w Atamifuji (5-6) heads a long list of unconvincing contenders for the second and any subsequent open slots (the best-placed kachi koshi currently belongs to ... checks notes ... M12e Takanosho (8-3)).

Edited January 24 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,295]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

• Absent Aoiyama faces certain demotion.
• Absent M8e Hokuseiho (2-4-5) has a demotable record and will need to rely on banzuke luck.
• M15e Tomokaze (3-8) must win out for safety.
• M16w Bushozan (4-7) and M13w Endo (3-8) need 3 wins.
• M16e Takarafuji (5-6) and M12w Myogiryu (3-8) need 2 wins.
• Not quite safe are M17e Shimazuumi (7-4), M13e Churanoumi (5-6), and (surprise!) M6w Shonannoumi (1-10), who must be hurt given how little resistance he's been able to offer this basho.

As for those vying to take their places:

• J3e Roga (9-2) has a promotable record and looks set for an immediate top-division return.
• J3w Kitanowaka (8-3) will join him with one more win.
• J2e Nishikifuji (7-4), J6e Tokihayate (9-2), and J1w Mitoryu (6-5) need 2 wins.
• J1e Daiamami (5-6) needs 3 wins.
• J2w Tohakuryu (5-6), J10e Takerufuji (9-2), and J7e Kagayaki (7-4) can still reach a promotable record by winning out.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

the best-placed kachi koshi currently belongs to ... checks notes ... M12e Takanosho

There is no way in hell they would make him a Komusubi... 

Hopefully, at least one of Atamifuji, Tobizaru, Abi, Shodai, Nishikigi, Kinbozan or even Asanoyama (if he returns) will make it over the hump.

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

• M16w Bushozan (4-7) and M13w Endo (3-8) need 3 wins.
• M16e Takarafuji (5-6) and M12w Myogiryu (3-8) need 2 wins.

Yaocho alert? 

[Reonito 1,295]

Juryo <-> Makushita

• J14w Tochimusashi's somewhat fortunate Juryo return will be short after he picked up his 8th loss.
• J13e Yuma (3-8) has no more room for error
• J14e Chiyosakae (5-6) can only afford one more loss.
• J13w Oshoumi (5-6), J12w Tenshoho (5-6), J12e Chiyomaru (5-6), and J11e Akua (4-7) all need 2 wins for safety.

J8w Shiden (4-7) is not quite safe. And J4w Kotoeko (1-8-2) returns on day 12 to try to pick up the win or two he needs to stay.

On the Makushita side, we are down to 5 promotion candidates. Ms1w Wakatakakage (6-0) is a lock to go up. The others are Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-2), who has probably done enough already but could use a 5th win, Ms2w Kitaharima (3-3), who must win his final bout, Ms5w Hakuoho (5-1), who may need 6 wins to ensure re-promotion, and Ms5e Kiryuko (3-3), who can finish no better than 4th in the promotion queue. There's no relevant action on day 12, so we'll have to wait till day 13 at the earliest to see how the torikumi committee tries to sort this out. Kitaharima and Kiryuko have already met, so presumably all/most of the contenders will visit Juryo to try to open up some spots.

Edited January 24 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,295]

12 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

There is no way in hell they would make him a Komusubi... 

It's not completely out of the question...

[Bunbukuchagama 674]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

It's not completely out of the question...

Those were all 6-8 Y/O basho... We barely have 3-4 now.

[Reonito 1,295]

4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Those were all 6-8 Y/O basho... We barely have 3-4 now.

I only mention him because everyone in the upper half of the maegashira ranks is at least 2 wins away from kachi-koshi; completely agree that this is very unlikely to persist through the next four days.

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

18 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's extraordinarily unlikely, but things are so rough, I wonder if Daieisho could become the first sekiwake to go 6-9 and not get booted out of the sanyaku. It already looks like 7-8 could keep him at sekiwake, at least if Kotonowaka gets promoted. (He'd also be the first 7-8 sekiwake to not take any demotion; the others all shifted from east to west.)

I like Atamifuji, but even I think that if he goes on a run and ends up as a sekiwake with an 8-7 comeback, it'll be... not entirely earned. Or at least that he'll have a lot to prove in March.

The last two M's to stroll into Sekiwake on single-digit wins were WTK and Tamawashi who each immediately followed up with a yusho.

EDIT: going back further in time, Terunofuji also put up 13 wins - the only offender on the list is 2-time Okinoumi.

Edited January 24 by Hoshotakamoto

[Yamanashi 3,673]

14 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I only mention him because everyone in the upper half of the maegashira ranks is at least 2 wins away from kachi-koshi; completely agree that this is very unlikely to persist through the next four days.

That's a pretty poor record from M1-M10!  However, without doing a stats overview, it seems to me that these guys can't all lose at the same time, so someone (impressively or unimpressively) will drag themselves over the line.

[maglor 122]

4 hours ago, Koorifuu said:

Shoutout to Anhibiki (Hasegawa), who rejected his sandanme tsukedashi - solid debut, beating Kyokukaiyu (Dalaibaatar) who was a strong collegiate sumo competitor, and oft-injured Chiyodaigo, who is usually of upper-mid makushita standard when healthy.

On the other hand someone turning down a sandamne tsukedashi to spend half a year facing largely inferior competition does not exactly fill you with confidence