Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Hatsu 2024

[maglor 122]

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=3&op==&sum_wins=32&form1_rank=S&form1_year=1958-2023&form2_rank=S&form3_rank=S

As far as Kotonowaka is concerned, 6/8 rikishi who have put up 32 wins in 3 basho starting from Sekiwake have been promoted to Ozeki in the modern era. Contrast that with 0/7 with 32 and 2/6 with 33 or 34 starting from the joi. I think he is quite likely to get promoted with 12 wins, especially if he drops two to Terunofuji and say a yusho-winning Kirishima while beating everyone else.

[Bunbukuchagama 701]

15 minutes ago, maglor said:

As far as Kotonowaka is concerned, 6/8 rikishi who have put up 32 wins in 3 basho starting from Sekiwake have been promoted to Ozeki in the modern era

...And 5 of those 6 promotees finished their runs with a 13-2/14-1 Yusho. Kisenosato was the only exception.

[maglor 122]

Goeido finished with a 12-3JY

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

I'm just staring at the last 2 years of Kotonowaka



and thinking that the most Kotonowaka-like thing he could do would be to get the exact permutation of 11s and 10s (something like 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 10 11 11) that would enable him to tease the next promotion until he finally scores the 12-3 that enables him to join Onosato, Takakeisho, Hoshoryu, Hakuoho, Wakamotoharu, Wakatakakage, and Takerufuji as the 8th ozeki on the banzuke behind Yokozunas Kirishima and Hokuseiho.

[dingo 1,212]

10 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I'm just staring at the last 2 years of Kotonowaka



and thinking that the most Kotonowaka-like thing he could do would be to get the exact permutation of 11s and 10s (something like 11 11 10 11 10 11 11 10 11 11) that would enable him to tease the next promotion until he finally scores the 12-3 that enables him to join Onosato, Takakeisho, Hoshoryu, Hakuoho, Wakamotoharu, Wakatakakage, and Takerufuji as the 8th ozeki on the banzuke behind Yokozunas Kirishima and Hokuseiho.

You're being quite generous about Takakeisho's longetivity as an ozeki. 

If Kotonowaka ends up with 12 wins and a jun-yusho, I wonder if the fact that his last two bashos were jun-yushos would play a part in the promotion discussions. 

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

20 hours ago, maglor said:

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=4&n_basho=3&op==&sum_wins=32&form1_rank=S&form1_year=1958-2023&form2_rank=S&form3_rank=S

As far as Kotonowaka is concerned, 6/8 rikishi who have put up 32 wins in 3 basho starting from Sekiwake have been promoted to Ozeki in the modern era. Contrast that with 0/7 with 32 and 2/6 with 33 or 34 starting from the joi. I think he is quite likely to get promoted with 12 wins, especially if he drops two to Terunofuji and say a yusho-winning Kirishima while beating everyone else.

It's usually more useful to focus on the last twenty years or so (since 2004), which backs your conclusion further. The only guy of those four who didn't get the promotion also didn't have a single twelve-win basho, so I imagine they were like, dude, you're just pulling the wins you can without really taking over any of these tournaments; you gotta do more.

But, as is often the case with a small sample size, Kotonowaka's setup is a little different from the others—he has a single-digit win basho in the run, whereas Kisenosato doesn't, Goeido bookended his with two 12-3 JYs, and Shodai finished the run with a 13-2 yusho. I could see them arguing two things if Koto finishes with a 12-3 JY: he needs one more go to show that dominant ozeki level they want before offering promotion, vs. the 11-4 before his 9-6 showing that he is genuinely ozeki level and the numbers just didn't line up quite according to the guidelines.

Writing it out, the latter argument seems more likely to win, but I think Kotonowaka fans should cross their fingers and not be too confident about it if that scenario plays out. Hell, it could depend in some way (even though it really shouldn't) on who wins—if Kiri takes it, then they have their yokozuna and they can let Koto sit at sekiwake once more, but if it's Teru (or, by some miracle, Hoshoryu), they're more apt to bump him up because they need another guy with a chance at the crown.

[dingo 1,212]

One could also theorise according to the old argument (or conspiracy theory?) that the NSK is always keen for a next Japanese yokozuna. Especially if the next immediate yokozuna prospects are Mongolian. Then one could argue that making a new Japanese ozeki would be a priority as well. I don't quite subscribe to this line of thinking myself, but who knows what goes on in the murky depths of the Kyokai. 

[Hoshotakamoto 256]

11 minutes ago, dingo said:

You're being quite generous about Takakeisho's longetivity as an ozeki. 

 

He is also younger than Kirishima.

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

Nothing about Keisho's recent achievements, or his age, means much in light of his current injury woes. No one's arguing that he's not capable of being a good ozeki when he's even moderately healthy, but his ability to reach even that level seems to be diminishing rapidly.

[dingo 1,212]

I'm quite confident that by the time Onosato or Hakuoho make it to ozeki Takakeisho will be gone due to his destroyed body. I'd be glad to be wrong but I just don't see it happening. 

[Fashiritētā 171]

12 minutes ago, dingo said:

I'm quite confident that by the time Onosato or Hakuoho make it to ozeki Takakeisho will be gone due to his destroyed body. I'd be glad to be wrong but I just don't see it happening. 

I would agree, Takakeishos neck issue wont go away anytime soon.

His only hope is the proven Terunofuji route from near bottom to top, Keisho is still young enough to do it.

Take the rest of the year off for recovery, please.

[Kintamayama 44,639]

I remember that fierce trembling and shudder.

[Sumo Spiffy 544]

11 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

I would agree, Takakeishos neck issue wont go away anytime soon.

His only hope is the proven Terunofuji route from near bottom to top, Keisho is still young enough to do it.

Take the rest of the year off for recovery, please.

He would look like a monster at first, but it would take another year minimum to even sniff the sanyaku and quite a bit longer to make it back to ozeki. And it's not like the inferiority of juryo and low maegashira relative to him is because they don't hit hard enough. 

At this point, he's better off battling to maintain rank and collect his relatively fat ozeki checks for as long as he can. He'll be better set up for his future and have the record of being an ozeki for X amount of time rather than a shorter Y amount of time. The only reason for him to take a long break for recovery and hope it does him some long-term good is if he gets dumpstered out of the sanyaku due to health or actually can't fight, but believes he can still compete at that high level and doesn't want to quit or hang around as a mid-tier maegashira. But you don't just give up an ozeki spot without being physically unable to compete near the necessary level.

[Reonito 1,384]

Day 12

Yusho Race: The cream has risen to the top—the pretenders have been dealt with, and only the real contenders remain. With Kotonowaka (11-1) fighting Terunofuji (10-2), and Kirishima (10-2) matched with Hoshoryu (10-2), the yusho line won't drop below 12, eliminating everyone else. (Either Kotonowaka gets to 12 tomorrow, or we'll have 3 rikishi at 11-2 who are set to meet down the stretch).

Kirishima's rope run: He probably needs to win out, as a 12-3 yusho would take a very specific combination of outcomes.

Lower san'yaku

• S1e Kotonowaka (11-1) will either be back at his current rank or vacate it via promotion. For the latter, he needs 13 wins by the numbers, but 12 would at least start a conversation.
• S1w Daieisho (7-5) needs 1 more win to retain his rank; he is guaranteed to stay in san'yaku.
• Both komusubi slots are open.
• M1e Wakamotoharu (8-4) has cemented an immediate return to the named ranks. The next-highest-ranked rikishi with a kachi koshi is still M12e Takanosho (8-4), but M4e Tobizaru (7-5) only needs one more win to stake a promotion claim (not by the numbers, but it's desperate times). M2w Abi (6-6) is in similar shape by the numbers, but needs two more wins to reach 8, while M1w Atamifuji (5-7) now must win out. Oh, and M7w Asanoyama (7-2-3) is back tomorrow, and can't be ruled out of the running.

Edited January 25 by Reonito

[Yamanashi 3,772]

12 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

Onosato, Takakeisho, Hoshoryu, Hakuoho, Wakamotoharu, Wakatakakage, and Takerufuji as the 8th ozeki on the banzuke behind Yokozunas Kirishima and Hokuseiho.

I pray that nothing as reductive as this happens.  I point out that Kirishima was not initially hailed with the sense of apotheosis that the latest batch of rookies has received -- and yet here we are.  It would be good to see some surprises (IMHO).

[Reonito 1,384]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo

• Absent Aoiyama faces certain demotion.
• Absent M8e Hokuseiho (2-4-6) has a demotable record and will need to rely on banzuke luck.
• M16w Bushozan (4-8), and M13w Endo (3-9), and M15e Tomokaze (4-8) must win out for safety.
• M16e Takarafuji (5-7) needs 2 wins.
• Still looking for one more win are M12w Myogiryu (4-8) and M13e Churanoumi (5-7).
• Other than Aoiyama, we could end up with quite a few incumbents on the bubble, with their fate coming down to the number of legitimate promotion cases in Juryo.

Speaking of that:

• J3e Roga (9-3) has a promotable record.
• J2e Nishikifuji (8-4), J1w Mitoryu (7-5), and J3w Kitanowaka (8-4) need 1 win.
• J6e Tokihayate (9-3) and J1e Daiamami (6-6) need 2 wins.
• J10e Takerufuji (10-2) is back in the lead in the yusho race and can still reach a numerical promotion case by winning out, as can J2w Tohakuryu (6-6), who visits Makuuchi tomorrow to take on endangered Takarafuji.

[Reonito 1,384]

8 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

I pray that nothing as reductive as this happens.  I point out that Kirishima was not initially hailed with the sense of apotheosis that the latest batch of rookies has received -- and yet here we are.  It would be good to see some surprises (IMHO).

Only on the upside, please! I for one don't want to see any of the up-and-comers flaming out.

[Reonito 1,384]

Juryo <-> Makushita

• We have two demotable rikishi: J14w Tochimusashi (4-8) and J13e Yuma (3-9).
• J14e Chiyosakae (5-7) has no more room for error.
• J12w Tenshoho (5-7) and J12e Chiyomaru (5-7) need 2 wins for safety.
• J13w Oshoumi (6-6) needs one more win, as does J11e Akua (5-7), who beat Chiyoshoma today, and by his favorite kakenage no less, after 3 hilariously futile attempts earlier in the basho. Rounding out the "not quite safe" list is J4w Kotoeko (2-8-2), who picked up a crucial 2nd win in his return today, but could use one more.

With no action on the Makushita side, we have the same 5 promotion candidates. Ms1w Wakatakakage (6-0) is a lock to go up. The others are Ms2e Tsushimanada (4-2), who has probably done enough already but could use a 5th win, Ms2w Kitaharima (3-3), who must win his final bout to have a shot, Ms5w Hakuoho (5-1), who may need 6 wins to ensure re-promotion, and Ms5e Kiryuko (3-3), who can finish no better than 4th in the promotion queue. The only relevant action on day 13 (other than the yusho decider between Wakatakakage and Haruyama, which will at most influence the former's ranking in Juryo) is Hakuoho vs. Chiyomaru in what is not quite an exchange bout. The torikumi committee will look at the results of day 13 bouts and then set up the needed exchange matches for days 14 and 15.

[Yamanashi 3,772]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Only on the upside, please! I for one don't want to see any of the up-and-comers flaming out.

If everything stayed on the upside, there would be 6 Yokozuna and 10 Ozeki every basho, which would be 1) statistically impossible, and 2) not any fun.

Submitted for your approval: Endo Shota, big shot college guy, entered Ozumo at Ms10TD.  Two basho to Juryo, one 14-1Y basho to Makuuchi.  61 of his 65 basho have been there, but only 5 in San'yaku (as Komosubi), and he is currently less than 50% in Makuuchi.

The guy who won his first 27 matches and made it from Maezumo to Maegashira in 9 basho is currently the star of a Sumo Dining Experience.

I'm sure many of the non-newbies on this Forum can give better examples, including lots of heartbreaking injuries.  You have to take the bitter with the sweet

[Reonito 1,384]

1 minute ago, Yamanashi said:

Submitted for your approval: Endo Shota, big shot college guy, entered Ozumo at Ms10TD.  Two basho to Juryo, one 14-1Y basho to Makuuchi.  61 of his 65 basho have been there, but only 5 in San'yaku (as Komosubi), and he is currently less than 50% in Makuuchi.

Untreated severe knee injury. Believe me, I'm fully aware these happen, I was only objecting to your implied wish for such "surprises" (needless to say, surprises like Wakamotoharu, who looked like a makushita lifer and then did a sekitori speed run straight to sekiwake are fully welcome).

[Yamanashi 3,772]

8 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Ms2w Kitaharima (3-3), who must win his final bout to have a shot,

I'm rooting for him to get one more visit to Juryo.  Then four more basho and he's kabu-eligible!

[Yamanashi 3,772]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Untreated severe knee injury. Believe me, I'm fully aware these happen, I was only objecting to your implied wish for such "surprises" (needless to say, surprises like Wakamotoharu, who looked like a makushita lifer and then did a sekitori speed run straight to sekiwake are fully welcome).

I WAS thinking of good surprises (like Kirishima); however, I stick by my previous post.

[maglor 122]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's usually more useful to focus on the last twenty years or so (since 2004), which backs your conclusion further. The only guy of those four who didn't get the promotion also didn't have a single twelve-win basho, so I imagine they were like, dude, you're just pulling the wins you can without really taking over any of these tournaments; you gotta do more.

But, as is often the case with a small sample size, Kotonowaka's setup is a little different from the others—he has a single-digit win basho in the run, whereas Kisenosato doesn't, Goeido bookended his with two 12-3 JYs, and Shodai finished the run with a 13-2 yusho. I could see them arguing two things if Koto finishes with a 12-3 JY: he needs one more go to show that dominant ozeki level they want before offering promotion, vs. the 11-4 before his 9-6 showing that he is genuinely ozeki level and the numbers just didn't line up quite according to the guidelines.

Writing it out, the latter argument seems more likely to win, but I think Kotonowaka fans should cross their fingers and not be too confident about it if that scenario plays out. Hell, it could depend in some way (even though it really shouldn't) on who wins—if Kiri takes it, then they have their yokozuna and they can let Koto sit at sekiwake once more, but if it's Teru (or, by some miracle, Hoshoryu), they're more apt to bump him up because they need another guy with a chance at the crown.

I think a better cutoff is 1988 - past then they seem to be working off more or less the same strictness, no 28win promos. I think KNW is quite likely to get promoted with 12 wins for the reasons you've laid out - of his last 13 basho 12 are KKs and 1 was that 7-3 COVID Kyujo. If Shodai or Kisenosato who showed nowhere near that consistency(hell Shodai had a 3-12 a couple basho before he started his run) went up, I'd be surprised if KNW doesn.t

To me at 12-3 KNW is certainly better than even odds to go up. At 13-2 near certainty.

[Asashosakari 18,959]

22 minutes ago, maglor said:

To me at 12-3 KNW is certainly better than even odds to go up. At 13-2 near certainty.

Agreed. It would be an all-sanyaku run of 11-9-11-12, so it's not like he just stumbled into exactly three borderline qualifying tournaments.

[Reonito 1,384]

22 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Agreed. It would be an all-sanyaku run of 11-9-11-12, so it's not like he just stumbled into exactly three borderline qualifying tournaments.

I guess the counter to this would be that it's his first sanyaku stint, and he's only been there for a year. That seemed to be the vibe when they turned down Takakeisho with 33/3 (9-13Y-11J), although his sanyaku experience was even less, plus the embarrassing nature of his senshuraku loss to Goeido seemed to count against him quite a bit. So with 12, the "quality of the sumo" in the two losses might enter into it.