Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Nagoya 2023

[Koorifuu 1,020]

At this stage, Oshoma might've already started legal proceedings to ensure that J4e slot is his personal property.

[Yamanashi 3,904]

55 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

At this stage, Oshoma might've already started legal proceedings to ensure that J4e slot is his personal property.

He's learning the wrong lesson!  Maybe a two-rank drop will wake him up a little.

[Reonito 1,523]

2 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Onosato(4-3 Ms3e) J12 Mukainakano(4-3 Ms3w) Kiho(7-5 J13e) J13 Takahashi(5-2 Ms4w) Ishizaki(5-2 Ms5e) J14 Shimanoumi(5-10 J10w)

I worry they'll find a way to rank Shima higher, despite his yet another lucky escape with a demotable record.

[Gurowake 4,109]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I worry they'll find a way to rank Shima higher, despite his yet another lucky escape with a demotable record.

Yeah, the last few rikishi in Juryo are tough.  It's hard to put Shimanoumi above Kiho though, and the 5-2 promotions really shouldn't be ranked any lower than the 4-3 promotions, and they might be interweaved, so it made the most sense to put Shimanoumi last to keep those 4 together as much as possible, subject to needing to fit Kiho in there.  Seeing Shimanoumi at J13w wouldn't surprise me though.   

Edited July 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 19,669]

My juryo attempt:

Tamashoho (J5e 10-5)       J1   Roga (J2e 8-7)
Kitanowaka (J5w 10-5)      J2   Daiamami (J9e 11-4 D)
Tomokaze (J9w 10-5)        J3   Mitoryu (J2w 6-9)
Oshoma (J4e 7-8)           J4   Tohakuryu (J4w 7-8)
Churanoumi (J7w 8-7)       J5   Bushozan (M16w 3-12)
Wakatakakage (M12w 0-0-15) J6   Azumaryu (J6w 7-8)
Shimazuumi (J3w 5-10)      J7   Shishi (J12e 9-6)
Chiyosakae (J10e 8-7)      J8   Takakento (J8e 7-8)
Akua (J8w 7-8)             J9   Chiyomaru (J11e 8-7)
Hakuyozan (J7e 6-9)        J10  Ichiyamamoto (J3e 4-9-2)
Tokihayate (Ms1e 7-0 Y)    J11  Shiden (J13w 8-7)
Takahashi (Ms4w 5-2)       J12  Ishizaki (Ms5e 5-2)
Kiho (J13e 7-5-3)          J13  Onosato (Ms3e 4-3)
Mukainakano (Ms3w 4-3)     J14  Shimanoumi (J10w 5-10)

The biggest differences to Gurowake's version are in the ordering of the promoted rikishi.

But yeah, Shimanoumi's gonna be J12e, isn't he?

[Reonito 1,523]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Yeah, the last few rikishi in Juryo are tough.  It's hard to put Shimanoumi above Kiho though, and the 5-2 promotions really shouldn't be ranked any lower than the 4-3 promotions, and they might be interweaved, so it made the most sense to put Shimanoumi last to keep those 4 together as much as possible, subject to needing to fit Kiho in there.  Seeing Shimanoumi at J13w wouldn't surprise me though.   

Of all the storylines, I don't know if there are any that I'm more invested in than seeing Shimanoumi finally drop to makushita after his ludicrously lenient banzuke treatment.

[Gurowake 4,109]

4 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

The biggest differences to Gurowake's version are in the ordering of the promoted rikishi.

I don't doubt that it's just as likely to go the way you have it.  I have no idea which order they'll go in other than the obvious restrictions.

Edited July 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Kishinoyama 596]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

But yeah, Shimanoumi's gonna be J12e, isn't he?

 

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Of all the storylines, I don't know if there are any that I'm more invested in than seeing Shimanoumi finally drop to makushita after his ludicrously lenient banzuke treatment.

That was what I said earlier in this thread. The guy has the best "banzuke luck" of anyone that I have seen. He already has the minimum tournaments required to get a kabu (which is already set = Izutsu) so why the need to keep him from falling to Makushita?

[Sumo Spiffy 581]

2 hours ago, Kishinoyama said:

That was what I said earlier in this thread. The guy has the best "banzuke luck" of anyone that I have seen. He already has the minimum tournaments required to get a kabu (which is already set = Izutsu) so why the need to keep him from falling to Makushita?

Eh, this time there's really nothing compelling the shove out of juryo. The luck's going to come if he ends up at J12. (I don't think he'll be J14. J13 if they decide to plant the 5-2s ahead and the 4-3s behind.

[Kishinoyama 596]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Eh, this time there's really nothing compelling the shove out of juryo. The luck's going to come if he ends up at J12. (I don't think he'll be J14. J13 if they decide to plant the 5-2s ahead and the 4-3s behind.

Sorry for the confusion but the point that I was trying to make is that he wouldn't be demoted even if their was a compelling reason to shove him out of Juryo. 

2022.05	M8e		7-8
2022.07	M9e		1-14
2022.09	J1e		4-11
2022.11	J8e		7-8
2023.01	J8e		5-10
2023.03	J11e		5-10
2023.05	J13w		8-7
2023.07	J10w		5-10

As you know, these are his tournament scores over the last few tournaments. I honestly believe that anybody else would have already been in Makushita. And I agree that he will probably be at J12 next tournament with some more "banzuke luck".

[Barutokai 65]

But his stats here say he will be J13. Either E or W.

Man I wish he could regain his strength. Being married seems to... drain him.

I wonder how his wife is.

[Bunbukuchagama 772]

1 minute ago, Barutokai said:

I wonder how his wife is.

[Reonito 1,523]

On 23/07/2023 at 10:23, Asashosakari said:

But yeah, Shimanoumi's gonna be J12e, isn't he?

Yup 

[Ack! 478]

On 23/07/2023 at 20:33, Barutokai said:

Being married seems to... drain him.

Must. resist. urge. to. comment!