Kunroku Ōzeki

[Yamanashi 3,911]

I've compared the 20 Ozeki (highest rank) and 15 Yokozuna with hatsu dohyo in or after 1970 [I've left out Tochinoshin].

The basho-average for the Ozeki: 8.25 wins, 5.35 losses, 1.34 kyujo (582 total basho).

For the Yokozuna while they were Ozeki, the numbers are: 10.66 wins, 3.83 losses, 0.51 kyujo (197 basho).  Amazingly, of these 15  only 4 (Akebono, Wakanohana, Harumafuji and Hakuho) missed any days at all as Ozeki.

During their Yokozuna careers, these men had: 9.36 wins, 2.49 losses, and 2.98 kyujo (486 basho) [more likely to be out than to lose -- thanks Takanohana and Kisenosato!].

Also, I became aware of the fact (know to all of you, to be sure) that Kisenosato never missed a bout until he became a Yokozuna; the very definition of tragedy.

 

[Bumpkin 438]

Kisenosato missed one bout. A fusen loss to Kotoshogiku on Day 15 of Hatsu 2014.

Edited July 16, 2018 by Bumpkin

[Asashosakari 19,693]

3 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

I think you make an interesting point there. I hadn’t ever really considered the disparity between what’s required to reach the rank versus what you can get away with to keep it. Perhaps that gap should be closed by, as you suggest, lowering the promotion criteria and raising the demotion-avoiding criteria. It is a bit odd that a just-demoted ozeki has to make 10 wins as a sekiwake to return to the rank, but can limp along getting 8-7s without consequence. 

Why do you want to turn the ozeki rank into a similar revolving door as sekiwake and komusubi? All that would do is devalue the rank with even more mediocrity than what we have now, and that seems to get many fans annoyed as it is.

Anyway...

People see the 33-wins guideline for promotion, and they seem to think that's close to what ozeki should be doing all the time simply because it's required to get there. But it's not, it just isn't.. As mentioned before, the average ozeki gets maybe 28 wins across three tournaments, a world of difference to 33. But they can't just promote every sekiwake who happens to get a 9-6, 10-5, 9-6 run going, because it's likely that that's above the guy's average level if he hasn't been doing it before, and after returning to his average performance he'll be someone who struggles to get 8 wins consistently. So the 33-wins target exists to catch those above-average performances, as an indicator for who can (hopefully) be trusted to still get those 28 wins after they return to their normal level.

If they wanted only ozeki who will get 10-11 wins in nearly every basho, they'd need to apply something close to the yokozuna promotion standard to ozeki promotions, let's say around 26 wins in two basho or 36 in three. But you'll be running into a bit of a logistical problem with that in the long run, unless you're also planning to make the yokozuna rank exclusive to only rikishi who have the potential for winning 15+ yusho.

Alternatively they could do the revolving door thing, which would probably have made Goeido a three- or four-time ozeki by now. (Likely including at least once long before he made it in the real world.) I'd be curious to know who actually thinks that that would be an improvement.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,109]

I would have no problem making both the Ozeki and Yokozuna ranks slightly harder to get to as you suggested.   Ozeki need 36/3 or somewhat loosened current Yokozuna requirements for 2 basho runs.  Yokozuna need 3 Yusho in a 6(?) basho period, or something equally impressive.  Then we'd see Kisenosato and Kakuryu stopped at Ozeki (though Kisenosato's run might still have qualified him since he was born in the right place (depends on if his 13-11-11-13 gets him to Ozeki since as stated it doesn't, so the beginning of the long Yokozuna run merely gets him to Ozeki - but probably the long string of 10s followed by the above 48/4 would be enough), and Kakuryu would be up for promotion for the next 2 basho); Kotoshogiku, Goeido, and (for now) Takayasu don't quite make it to Ozeki.  Hakuho, Harumafuji, Terunofuji and Tochinoshin would be the same.  I think that's a totally fair way of slicing them given their accomplishments, just as much as what we have now.  Still doesn't leave anywhere to promote Hakuho to, and there would only have been like 10 Yokozuna in the modern era (that's just a guess), but it means we leave out the weak Yokozuna who stumble into 2 Yusho as Ozeki and the crap sack Ozeki that last for only a few years and don't make any serious attempt at promotion under the current guidelines.

I mainly like it because it would make being Sekiwake mean something a lot more than it does now because we wouldn't have the times like a few years ago when we had 6 new Sekiwake in 3 basho, making it almost a joke as half the division (ok, not quite) was a former Sekiwake, because there were 7 top-rankers that we have to add 4 junior sanyaku to and there's no way to get them to KK particularly often with so many rikishi ranked above them.  With Kotoshogiku and Goeido as almost permanent Sekiwake, occasionally rotating out, it would be impossible to luck your way in, and most of them would be forcing their way in with 11 at K or 12 at M1, although maybe they adjust the forced promotion numbers up a bit.  We could even implement pseudo- rank protection for them in case of injuries because of the higher difficultly of reaching the rank: the furthest they could be demoted is Komusubi, and a 7-8 while not the last-ranked Sekiwake always has them stay on as a lower-ranked Sekiwake.  Then we can do something similar for Komusubi - not drop them out of the joi, keep the highest ranked one if they go 7-8, and be willing to promote a 3rd or more when needed.

Not that they're ever going to take my advice, but it seems perfectly reasonable to me, and stops them from putting extremely mediocre rikishi as their promotional faces.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Gurowake

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

I reckon they should make a new rank (Nails Yokozuna - as in 'hard as nails') for any yok who either gets three straight zensho, who wins by tsuridashi at least five times over three straight yusho, or who has a really scary face at the shikiri-sen. Akebono would be fine with that last criteria, incidentally.

[Asashosakari 19,693]

15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I mainly like it because it would make being Sekiwake mean something a lot more than it does now (...)

Until people start complaining about somebody like Goeido being a 30-basho sekiwake with his "mediocre" records.

[Gurowake 4,109]

Just now, Asashosakari said:

Until people start complaining about somebody like Goeido being a 30-basho sekiwake with his "mediocre" records.

I think Sekiwake is the right place for mediocre rikishi able to usually get a KK but rarely get much more.  We call them weak Ozeki now instead.

[Asashosakari 19,693]

12 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I think Sekiwake is the right place for mediocre rikishi able to usually get a KK but rarely get much more.  We call them weak Ozeki now instead.

If sekiwake becomes the new parking rank for rikishi that most fans don't take very seriously despite them actually being pretty good, that won't do much to achieve your intended goal of getting people to treat the rank as a bigger deal than it is now.

I forgot one comment on your earlier post:

30 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

With Kotoshogiku and Goeido as almost permanent Sekiwake, occasionally rotating out, it would be impossible to luck your way in, and most of them would be forcing their way in with 11 at K or 12 at M1, although maybe they adjust the forced promotion numbers up a bit.

Of course they would have to do that, because otherwise you've simply moved the goalposts and instead of having sekiwake who are stronger than the incumbent ozeki, you now have komusubi who are stronger than the incumbent sekiwake. That's rare now, but would be happening loads more often if all the "weak" ozeki were parked at sekiwake instead.

The net result is probably that they would have to have 3-5 sekiwake most of the time, and fans would complain about the weak parts of those groups just like they do with the ozeki rank now.

Edit: Oh, wait, you wrote "adjust up"?! Sorry, that's just nuts. Requiring more than 11 wins just to get from K to S would make a complete mockery of the whole setup by being worse than how it works now. What's next, 10-5 required to go from M1 to K? You can't move the logjam down indefinitely, as you appear to be trying to do.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,109]

1 minute ago, Asashosakari said:

If sekiwake becomes the new parking rank for rikishi that most fans don't take very seriously despite them actually being pretty good, that won't do much to achieve your intended goal of getting people to treat the rank as a bigger deal than it is now.

I mean in comparison to the time that we had Takarafuji, Ikioi, Kaisei, and some others who almost certainly would not make Sekiwake if there were rikishi nearly permanently parked there.  Right *now* we have Mitakeumi parked there until he gets promoted, and Ichinojo was there for a bit, Tamawashi is also pretty solid there now too, but that's because there's lots of kyujos among the top 6, and only 6 as opposed to 7.  I envision getting to 7 or even 6 Y+O would be rather difficult, making it be odds-on that Sekiwake get their KK and stay on until a new contender pushes their way in and there's no longer enough wins to go around.

Anyway, it's just a big of wishful thinking regardless, just like the idea that they have the Makushita-joi fight all 3 last days when there are less lower division bouts each day.

[Gurowake 4,109]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Anyway, it's just a big of wishful thinking regardless, just like the idea that they have the Makushita-joi fight all 3 last days when there are less lower division bouts each day.

Also, they obviously aren't going to change anything now given how long the history of having the ranks as they are now.  But if it was back in the day when they were first breaking from the pattern of one each O+S+K, it might have been a better route to go down. Or when they moved to 15 day schedules and/or when they went to 6 basho a year, which are probably the more modernizing factors.

Edited July 17, 2018 by Gurowake

[Akinomaki 40,833]

I think these discussions are related to the difference how ranks and degrees in martial arts are perceived in Japan compared to the Western countries. In Japan you do just enough to earn the rank and then mature into it, grow into it AFTER you get promoted, while the Western way is that they have to be fully able to perform at the rank before they get it.

Those who are able to fully mature in the rank then can go for the next rank, while the others stagnate, but still fill the rank with a satisfying performance.

I don't think in Japan Goeido is perceived as a weak, much less as an unworthy ozeki, that's just us who think so.

[lackmaker 438]

I was wondering whether these sort of discussions take place amongst the powers that be. Is there much interest in adjusting criteria for promotion and relegation at that level?

[Dapeng 236]

6 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

I think these discussions are related to the difference how ranks and degrees in martial arts are perceived in Japan compared to the Western countries. In Japan you do just enough to earn the rank and then mature into it, grow into it AFTER you get promoted, while the Western way is that they have to be fully able to perform at the rank before they get it.

Those who are able to fully mature in the rank then can go for the next rank, while the others stagnate, but still fill the rank with a satisfying performance.

I don't think in Japan Goeido is perceived as a weak, much less as an unworthy ozeki, that's just us who think so.

Sure. However, below Ozeki a rikishi's banzuke is completely depending on his performance. But for ozeki and yokozuna, not necessarily. That's why we see so many mediocre ozeki and yokozuna. In addition, the current system makes the life of ozeki and yokozuna easy, but hard for those rank-and-files.  

[Yamanashi 3,911]

48 minutes ago, Dapeng said:

Sure. However, below Ozeki a rikishi's banzuke is completely depending on his performance. But for ozeki and yokozuna, not necessarily. That's why we see so many mediocre ozeki and yokozuna. In addition, the current system makes the life of ozeki and yokozuna easy, but hard for those rank-and-files.  

On the other hand, the Y/O have significant "PR" duties beyond the usual sekitori gladhand stuff.  I know, banquets and wedding feasts and "hoist the starlet" gigs are pretty cool, but they probably make it difficult to have consistent training schedules before a tournament.

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,276]

20 hours ago, Dapeng said:

Sure. However, below Ozeki a rikishi's banzuke is completely depending on his performance. But for ozeki and yokozuna, not necessarily. That's why we see so many mediocre ozeki and yokozuna. In addition, the current system makes the life of ozeki and yokozuna easy, but hard for those rank-and-files.  

I don't believe there are so many mediocre ozeki, and that was the point of all the statistics that were generated in this thread.

[Tsubame 368]

On 17.7.2018 at 18:01, Dapeng said:

That's why we see so many mediocre ozeki and yokozuna.

Many? Please name many general as mediocre viewed ozeki or yokozuna.

Yes, there are from time to time underperforming O/Y, but those were never "many".

[Yamanashi 3,911]

1 hour ago, Tsubame said:

Many? Please name many general as mediocre viewed ozeki or yokozuna.

Yes, there are from time to time underperforming O/Y, but those were never "many".

IMHO, many of the "underperforming" Ozeki were injured: Baruto, Terunofuji, Musoyama.  I don't know how to assess the career of, say, Miyabiyama: Ozeki in 13 basho, injured, then 10 years in upper Makuuchi.

[Dapeng 236]

On 7/18/2018 at 08:36, Tsuchinoninjin said:

I don't believe there are so many mediocre ozeki, and that was the point of all the statistics that were generated in this thread.

The minimum requirement for ozeki is 9 wins. That's why the famous saying "kunroku ozeki". Many ozeki barely maintain average 9 wins per basho, especially during their last 1-2 years' ozeki tenure. That's why I suggested 10 wins for clearing kadoban. Those that cannot consistently win 9 wins should be demoted.  

[Dapeng 236]

On 7/15/2018 at 21:33, Yamanashi said:

If I can get this to attach, I have a graph of wins vs. losses for (non-Yok) Ozeki from Kotokaze (hatsu dohyo 1971) to present.

[It won't copy the graph at this time]

Anyway, the grand average W/L is 1.54, which gives 9.1 wins per basho.  Highest ratio: Takayasu (2.3), Kotokaze (1.9); lowest Miyabiyama (0.98), Terunofuji (1.1).

So the average number of real ozeki (those never promoted to yokozuna) is only 9.1 wins per basho. If 9 wins is the minimum requirement for ozeki, more than half ozekies are at and below this minimum requirement thus can be called "mediocre ozeki" or "kunroku ozeki". 

[ALAKTORN 346]

1 hour ago, Dapeng said:

The minimum requirement for ozeki is 9 wins. That's why the famous saying "kunroku ozeki". Many ozeki barely maintain average 9 wins per basho, especially during their last 1-2 years' ozeki tenure. That's why I suggested 10 wins for clearing kadoban. Those that cannot consistently win 9 wins should be demoted.  

It all of course depends on the number of ōzeki and yokozuna, but an ōzeki is “expected” to get double digits, and kunroku-ōzeki is a thing because it points out that they’re not doing a good job.

[Akinomaki 40,833]

1 hour ago, Dapeng said:

The minimum requirement for ozeki is 9 wins. That's why the famous saying "kunroku ozeki". Many ozeki barely maintain average 9 wins per basho, especially during their last 1-2 years' ozeki tenure. That's why I suggested 10 wins for clearing kadoban. Those that cannot consistently win 9 wins should be demoted.  

The minimum requirement for ozeki is kachi-koshi. And the expectations for an ozeki are 10 wins. That's why the famous saying kunroku-ozeki points to a mediocre ozeki, who doesn't fulfill these expectations and never gets 10 wins, just like Alaktorn said.

Edited July 19, 2018 by Akinomaki

[Gurowake 4,109]

An Ozeki that can get 10 wins in 95% of tournaments usually is called a Yokozuna.  Might take a while in some cases (Kisenosato, Musashimaru), but that's what'll happen if they keep at it.

[itchyknee 60]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/sumo/

Page 6 shows the 538 interactive chart.

These stats appear to be just the Makuuchi stats.  Based on Terunofuji's numbers they also don't count withdrawals (except the initial fusen loss). I set the color to highest rank and the Y-axis to win percentage, and the year range from 1950 - 2017.  This directly compares wins and losses (including fusens), but ignores withdrawals.

With X-Axis as bouts you can see that the best wrestlers with a highest rank of Sekiwake top out at just under a 54% win/loss rate while in Makuuchi.  Today Goeido has a 57% win/loss rate which, thanks to his recent yusho and jun-yusho, is better than the 55.8% calculated in the 538 table which stats end in March 2016.

Yes, the typical Ozeki since 1950 has a win/loss ratio in the 58% - 60% range, so by that standard Goeido isn't a great Ozeki, but he's still better on average than anyone whose career ends at Sekiwake or lower.  Whether or not this would remain the case if kadoban didn't exist or was changed I have no idea.

9/15 is 60% which, recognition to Yamanashi above, is a standard the typical Ozeki can just barely meet, when discounting kyujo (which the stats I use above do not discount the first [fusen loss] kyujo).

1970 to today: 8.25 wins, 5.35 losses, 1.34 kyujo

8.25 / (8.25+5.35) = 60.6%.

adding back in 1 kyujo and you get:

8.25 / 14.6 = 56.5%, or about where Goeido is now.

Edited July 24, 2018 by itchyknee
added Yamanishi's numbers

[Uinseann 2]

While I don't have anything relevant to add to the subject, as an outsider with little experience in the sport, I must say this is a terrific read.

It is really interesting to see you all go into such lengths while I, as a casual watcher, did not even guessed there could be a problem.
I never thought of the image of certain ranks nor the performances they should provide to be "worthy" of it.

But debate is part of any passion and I'll continue reading!

[Gospodin 219]

On 14.7.2018 at 18:20, Eikokurai said:

The Wikipedia list actually says when and why each Ozeki’s reign at the rank came to an end. None since Tochiazuma in 2002 retired as Ozeki. All the others since then were either demoted or dismissed (or are still active).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ōzeki

Tochiazuma became Ozeki in 2002. He retired in 2007.