Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 6, 2017 It's a new era in LKS with neither Hakuho nor Kisenosato on any lengthy KK streaks, and in fact nobody in double digits at all. Here's the ballot for Nagoya: 1. Asanoyama 8* 2. Kizaki 7* 3. Takemasa 7* 4. Tamawashi 6 [score?] 5. Kotokensei 6** 6. Hakuyozan 5 7. Tsurubayashi 5 8. Chiyonoumi 5 9. Ikeru 5** 10. Tsugaruumi 5** 11. Ura 4 12. Abi 4 TB: [pick?] (* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut, ** marks rikishi with no makekoshi since re-debut) The scoring and thus your game assignment: For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction. For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction. (For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.) First tie-breaker: From among those 12 guys up there and the further 10 rikishi (9 'veterans' and 1 newcomer) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 22. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records. Next 11 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Asanoyama. Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order). Final tie-breaker: earliest entry. Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker. Deadline: Shonichi noon JST. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Profomisakari 874 Posted July 6, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki KK 3. Takemasa KK 4. Tamawashi 9 5. Kotokensei MK 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi KK 8. Chiyonoumi MK 9. Ikeru MK10. Tsugaruumi KK11. Ura MK12. Abi KK TB: 12 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,109 Posted July 6, 2017 (edited) Tamawashi leading Makuuchi! Ridiculous! Edited July 7, 2017 by Gurowake Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pandaazuma 1,310 Posted July 7, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki KK 3. Takemasa MK 4. Tamawashi 8-7 5. Kotokensei MK 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi MK 8. Chiyonoumi MK 9. Ikeru MK10. Tsugaruumi MK11. Ura MK12. Abi KK TB: 11 Pandaazuma Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted July 7, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki MK 3. Takemasa MK 4. Tamawashi 10-5 5. Kotokensei MK 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi KK 8. Chiyonoumi KK 9. Ikeru KK 10. Tsugaruumi KK 11. Ura KK 12. Abi KK TB:12 chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,495 Posted July 7, 2017 (edited) 1. KK 2. KK 3. MK 4. 9-6 5. MK 6. MK 7. MK 8. MK 9. KK 10. KK 11. MK 12. KK TB: 12 Edited July 7, 2017 by Sakura Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 7, 2017 @Sakura Tiebreaker choice? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ryoshishokunin 325 Posted July 7, 2017 Long KK Nagoya 17 KK MK KK 8 KK KK mk kk kk KK mk kk TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ryafuji 815 Posted July 7, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki KK 3. Takemasa MK 4. Tamawashi 8-7 5. Kotokensei MK 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi MK 8. Chiyonoumi KK 9. Ikeru MK 10. Tsugaruumi KK 11. Ura KK 12. Abi MK TB: 14 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sakura 1,495 Posted July 7, 2017 8 hours ago, Asashosakari said: @Sakura Tiebreaker choice? added Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Suwihuto 133 Posted July 7, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki MK 3. Takemasa KK 4. Tamawashi 9 5. Kotokensei MK 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi KK 8. Chiyonoumi MK 9. Ikeru KK10. Tsugaruumi MK11. Ura MK12. Abi KK TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HYI 8 Posted July 7, 2017 (edited) 1. KK 2. KK 3. MK 4. 9 5. KK 6. KK 7. MK 8. KK 9. KK10. KK11. MK12. MK TB: 13 Edited July 8, 2017 by HYI Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tenshinhan 1,612 Posted July 7, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki KK 3. Takemasa mk 4. Tamawashi mk 5. Kotokensei mk 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi mk 8. Chiyonoumi KK 9. Ikeru KK10. Tsugaruumi mk11. Ura mk12. Abi mk TB: 11 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,109 Posted July 8, 2017 (edited) Asanoyama + Kizaki + Takemasa + Tamawashi - Kotokensei + Hakuyozan - Tsurubayashi - Chiyonoumi + Ikeru + Tsugaruumi + Ura - Abi - TB 11 Others may wish to take notice that Nakazono, one of the backup guys, is kyujo. You may wish to adjust your TB down depending on how you felt about his chances. Edited July 8, 2017 by Gurowake 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Achiyama 1,247 Posted July 8, 2017 1. Asanoyama KK 2. Kizaki KK 3. Takemasa MK 4. Tamawashi 9-6 5. Kotokensei KK 6. Hakuyozan KK 7. Tsurubayashi KK 8. Chiyonoumi KK 9. Ikeru MK 10. Tsugaruumi MK 11. Ura MK 12. Abi KK TB: 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,427 Posted July 8, 2017 1. Asanoyama kk 2. Kizaki kk 3. Takemasa kk 4. Tamawashi MK 5. Kotokensei MK 6. Hakuyozan kk 7. Tsurubayashi kk 8. Chiyonoumi kk 9. Ikeru MK10. Tsugaruumi kk11. Ura MK12. Abi MK TB: [12] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kuroimori 1,634 Posted July 8, 2017 Asanoyama KK Kizaki MK Takemasa MK Tamawashi 9-6 Kotokensei MK Hakuyozan KK Tsurubayashi MK Chiyonoumi KK Ikeru KK Tsugaruumi KK Ura MK Abi KK TB 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 8, 2017 + Asanoyama + Kizaki - Takemasa 8 Tamawashi - Kotokensei + Hakuyozan - Tsurubayashi + Chiyonoumi + Ikeru - Tsugaruumi - Ura + Abi TB 10 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 16, 2017 (edited) 14 players have signed up for the Nagoya LKS, including new entrant HYI and returning Suwihuto. Welcome! The selection stats: Player Asano Kizaki Take Tama K'ken Haku Tsuru Chiyo Ikeru Tsuga Ura Abi TB Cons Profomisakari + + + + 9-6 - + + - - + - + 12 1.57 Pandaazuma + + - - 8-7 - + - - - - - + 11 1.47 chishafuwaku + - - + 10-5 - + + + + + + + 12 1.61 Ryoshishokunin + - + - 8-7 + + - + + + - + 13 1.52 ryafuji + + - - 8-7 - + - + - + + - 14 1.57 Sakura + + - + 9-6 - - - - + + - + 12 1.52 Suwihuto + - + + 9-6 - + + - + - - + 13 1.70 HYI + + - + 9-6 + + - + + + - - 13 1.37 Tenshinhan + + - - MK - + - + + - - - 11 1.32 Gurowake + + + - MK + - - + + + - - 11 1.70 Achiyama + + - + 9-6 + + + + - - - + 13 1.57 Jejima + + + - MK - + + + - + - - 12 1.52 kuroimori + - - + 9-6 - + - + + + - + 13 1.27 Asashosakari + + - - 8-7 - + - + + - - + 10 1.21 14:0 10:4 5:9 7:7 4:10 12:2 5:9 10:4 9:5 9:5 2:12 9:5 Results + + - - - - - - - - - + Unanimous support for Asanoyama's kachikoshi, but the rest of the picks are pretty well-distributed again and, more importantly, no player has more than one major upset selection. Consequently even the most unusual ballots (by Gurowake and Suwihuto) are far below the 2.00+ consensus scores we normally see from the biggest outliers. Asashosakari has produced the most average lineup, deviating from the majority only on Tsugaruumi. A lot more people have predicted a kachikoshi for Tamawashi this time (11:3 after 6:10 in May), so the target line for the sekiwake has shifted up to 9-6, which produced exactly balanced selections. Rather tightly clustered picks in the TB column, unsurprising with such a relatively short ballot: one 10 and 14 apiece, and lots of picks on each of the three numbers in between. Summary of results: ballot, wannabes Nakazono was excluded from the competition, as indicated earlier by Gurowake. Edited July 26, 2017 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 16, 2017 The early results: Day 7: After 1-3 -> 4-3 (March) and 0-3 -> 4-3 (May) escape acts, Takemasa wasn't able to avoid the grim reaper of the makekoshi this time, picking up 4 quick losses. Day 8: A decisive confirmation of our all around KK predictions by Asanoyama who has rushed out to an 8-0 record. On the flipside we've got another 0-4 start, though this one just by Kotokobai in the off-ballot tier. The first standings, entirely dependent on how you picked Takemasa: Day 8: 2/12 Decisions, TB 1-19 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Asashosakari 2 10 2 Pandaazuma 2 11 2 Tenshinhan 2 11 4 chishafuwaku 2 12 4 Sakura 2 12 6 Achiyama 2 13 6 HYI 2 13 6 kuroimori 2 13 9 ryafuji 2 14 10 Gurowake 1 11 11 Jejima 1 12 11 Profomisakari 1 12 13 Ryoshishokunin 1 13 13 Suwihuto 1 13 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 17, 2017 (edited) Day 9: Hakuyozan is the next rikishi to be sent adrift after falling to a largely unanticipated makekoshi at 1-4. Gurowake and Sakura are the only ones with something to cheer about on that outcome, and the latter takes over the sole lead for now. The list of possible ballot additions continued to dwindle as well, with Midorifuji, Asayamabana and Isshinryu all going MK today. Day 9: 3/12 Decisions, TB 1-15 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Sakura 3 12 2 Asashosakari 2 10 3 Gurowake 2 11 3 Pandaazuma 2 11 3 Tenshinhan 2 11 6 chishafuwaku 2 12 7 Achiyama 2 13 7 HYI 2 13 7 kuroimori 2 13 10 ryafuji 2 14 11 Jejima 1 12 11 Profomisakari 1 12 13 Ryoshishokunin 1 13 13 Suwihuto 1 13 Edited July 17, 2017 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 19, 2017 (edited) Day 10: Makushita talents Tsurubayashi and Chiyonoumi both dropped to 1-4, the latter outcome being quite unexpected by us. Sakura and Pandaazuma predicted both results correctly, while three players left the day empty-handed and the rest scored with one or the other. The backup squad is deciding things early this basho as well; Keitenkai finds himself with an early makekoshi to end his streak, but Kotodaigo and Chiyosakae moved up to 4-1 and will be joining the next ballot. The current standings - our leader marches on and the field gets spread out in a pretty big way already. Day 10: 5/12 Decisions, TB 3-12 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Sakura 5 12 2 Pandaazuma 4 11 3 Asashosakari 3 10 4 Gurowake 3 11 4 Tenshinhan 3 11 6 HYI 3 13 6 kuroimori 3 13 6 ryafuji 3 14 9 chishafuwaku 2 12 9 Profomisakari 2 12 11 Achiyama 2 13 11 Ryoshishokunin 2 13 11 Suwihuto 2 13 14 Jejima 1 12 Lots of players already assured of missing the TB... Edited July 19, 2017 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 20, 2017 Day 11: No relevant scoring decisions took place yesterday, only prospective candidate Akinoyama fell to 2-4 (after a mono-ii sashichigae) and won't be getting onto the ballot. Day 12: More action today, which saw our last two decisions in makushita: Kizaki improved to 4-2 and has kept his debut KK streak alive, while Ikeru's upwards trek after injury has reached its end in basho #6. In addition there's a fresh kachikoshi for juryo returnee Abi. The backup squad is already finished for the basho after the last result came in today with veteran Kasugaryu's makekoshi. Everybody scored at least one point, and the trio of Achiyama, Pandaazuma and Profomisakari even picked up all three. The new standings, now with a leading duo: Day 12: 8/12 Decisions, TB 5-9 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Pandaazuma 7 11 1 Sakura 7 12 3 Achiyama 5 13 3 Asashosakari 5 10 3 Profomisakari 5 12 3 ryafuji 5 14 7 Gurowake 4 11 7 HYI 4 13 7 kuroimori 4 13 7 Tenshinhan 4 11 11 chishafuwaku 3 12 11 Jejima 3 12 11 Ryoshishokunin 3 13 11 Suwihuto 3 13 And I thought I was being clever by going low on the tiebreaker in my entry... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 20, 2017 The yusho race is already down to just three players - the two leaders plus pursuer Achiyama. ryafuji can still tie for the lead but cannot win, while Asashosakari and Profomisakari are guaranteed to finish at least one point back in every scenario. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,687 Posted July 22, 2017 Day 13: Another pair of results came in today, which saw Kotokensei fall to MK in sandanme and sekiwake Tamawashi collect loss #7, thereby making him miss his 9-6 target record. 5 players scored on both items, two others whiffed completely and the rest went 1-1. And I'm a bit sad to say it, but - the yusho race has been decided! Tamawashi's negative outcome has already given an unassailable lead to Pandaazuma with only the exact nature of his victory (bracket playoff or outright) still to be determined. Congratulations! I'm a bit surprised that this is only the second yusho for our winner, coming exactly three years after the first one. Anyway, the not yet final standings: Day 13: 10/12 Decisions, TB 5-8 Pos Player Pts TB 1 Pandaazuma 9 11 2 Sakura 8 12 3 Asashosakari 7 10 3 ryafuji 7 14 5 Profomisakari 6 12 5 Tenshinhan 6 11 7 Achiyama 5 13 7 Gurowake 5 11 7 Jejima 5 12 7 kuroimori 5 13 11 chishafuwaku 4 12 11 HYI 4 13 11 Ryoshishokunin 4 13 11 Suwihuto 4 13 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
