Basho Talk - Kyushu Basho 2016 ** (SPOILERS)

[Bumpkin 438]

10 hours ago, Rocks said:

Just realized. The only division Sato has been in that he hasn't won a Yusho in is Sandanme. Pretty impressive. 

Ryuden has won each of the 4 lower divisions.

[Asojima 2,874]

20 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

You are correct. I knew about Tochiazuma but forgot about Haguroyama.  BTW does anyone remember Tochiazuma's dad, aka Tochiazuma.

I vaguely remember him as a mediocre mid-maegashira.  One of those guys who show up daily to fill up a spot in the torikumi. (1972-1976)

Edited November 30, 2016 by Asojima

[Bumpkin 438]

11 minutes ago, Asojima said:

I vaguely remember him as a mediocre mid-maegashira.  One of those guys who show up daily to fill up a spot in the torikumi. (1972-1976)

Except he won a yusho back in 1972.  11-4, but a yusho none the less.

[Asojima 2,874]

2 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Except he won a yusho back in 1972.  11-4, but a yusho none the less.

Happened just before I arrived in Japan, so that's not something I remember.

[Andreas21 219]

8 hours ago, Benihana said:

Harumafuji is 32, Hakuho 31, Kakuryuu 31. Kotoshogiku 32, Kisenosato 30, Goeido 30.

6 of 7 Y/Os are aged 30 or older. How many of them will have a career like Kaio? Goeido and Kisenosato are the only 2 without injury since many years. Who will hit the age wall first?

 

The current Yokozunae and Ozeki in their 30s are historically very remarkable that they are so little hampered by injuries. They are out for injury once in a while, but if I compare that to the past, the 80s the 90s, where the Yusho often was basically decided by multiple Kyujos of the top Rikishi.

What is also remarkable is that, except Kotoshogiku, the injuries do not appear to be severe. A bit of fingers, hands, elbows, things that can possibly fully recovered. Not career-threatening issues like Endo, Terunofuji have, which were bugging great Rikishi of the past, like Tochiazuma, Takanohana, Akebono  for instance.

In my opinion we have the most competitive bunch of top Rikishi ever ( ... I may exaggerate a bit ... ). When in history we had a situation that 5 top Rikishi passed their 30s and compete at or near their top level nearly injury-free?

Comparing stats, average wins per basho and so on, has a big drawback. You can only be as good as your opponent allows. So if the others keep up you have trouble unless you constantly improve. This is actually the way I look at the "decline" of Hakuho. In my opinion he is not getting worse at all. It's only that the others are constantly improving, which is obviously the case for Kakuryo, Goeido and Kisenosato. Arguably, even Hakuho is still improving, at least to get his wins easier than in the past (I recall the time of his impressive winning streak, where he had to work hard for his wins.)

My prediction for the future is that the mentioned 5 will compete at top level for some years to come. (Kotoshogiko is on the brink of Intai once something's on with his knees again.) That will bug the next generation a lot! Probably Harumafuji will go first, he's the oldest and needs to work the most for his wins.

I also think that both Kisenosato and Goeido will finally get Yokozuna near the end of their carreers, once Kakuryo and Hakuho retire or start to make breaks more often.

Frankly, I do not see any of the young contenders to make such a big jump to dominate the 5. Shodai has shown some great Sumo but one must not forget that he is 25 already. Terunofuji had the potential but it is absolutely unclear if he can fully recover the injury. The same for many others - they are not really young anymore, lack the size (Ishiura, Ura, Onosho), the cleverness (Kagayaki), or are already severely damaged (Endo).

 

[Washuyama 662]

I wouldn't be surprised if Hakuho regains his dominance. Maybe not as outright as it used to be, but IMHO 3 or 4 yusho in 2017 isn't out of the question. 

[CT3* 331]

Hakuho comes back from sitting out an entire basho because of injury and surgeries, scores an 11-4 record and people are ready to write him off already? Trippy. I'll be in Tokyo for the January basho and wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win it.

[Jojo 11]

19 hours ago, Kuroyama said:

Harumafuji has 8 yusho under his belt. I think in any other era, without an Asashoryu or a Hakuho to compare him to, this would be considered a very strong if not dominating performance, particularly since we might expect him to have gotten at least 1 or 2 more yusho had Hakuho not been there.

Doubt that quite a bit! Harumafuji has peaks of top performances but other than that he's quite poor as a Yokozuna, at that rank he completed 21 bashos, 14 (ie 2/3!!) of which with a record of 9, 10 or 11 wins. He loses 1 in 5 bouts vs Maegashira opposition. No doubt he would have a few more Yusho and maybe considered a strong Yokozuna, but not more than that in my opinion, can't be dominant such poor numbers against lower ranked opposition. Moreover his record against Hakuho isn't dreadful, he's 8-12 since becoming a Yokozuna.

Edited November 30, 2016 by Jojo
Typo

[Dapeng 236]

6 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

The current Yokozunae and Ozeki in their 30s are historically very remarkable that they are so little hampered by injuries. They are out for injury once in a while, but if I compare that to the past, the 80s the 90s, where the Yusho often was basically decided by multiple Kyujos of the top Rikishi.

What is also remarkable is that, except Kotoshogiku, the injuries do not appear to be severe. A bit of fingers, hands, elbows, things that can possibly fully recovered. Not career-threatening issues like Endo, Terunofuji have, which were bugging great Rikishi of the past, like Tochiazuma, Takanohana, Akebono  for instance.

In my opinion we have the most competitive bunch of top Rikishi ever ( ... I may exaggerate a bit ... ). When in history we had a situation that 5 top Rikishi passed their 30s and compete at or near their top level nearly injury-free?

Comparing stats, average wins per basho and so on, has a big drawback. You can only be as good as your opponent allows. So if the others keep up you have trouble unless you constantly improve. This is actually the way I look at the "decline" of Hakuho. In my opinion he is not getting worse at all. It's only that the others are constantly improving, which is obviously the case for Kakuryo, Goeido and Kisenosato. Arguably, even Hakuho is still improving, at least to get his wins easier than in the past (I recall the time of his impressive winning streak, where he had to work hard for his wins.)

My prediction for the future is that the mentioned 5 will compete at top level for some years to come. (Kotoshogiko is on the brink of Intai once something's on with his knees again.) That will bug the next generation a lot! Probably Harumafuji will go first, he's the oldest and needs to work the most for his wins.

I also think that both Kisenosato and Goeido will finally get Yokozuna near the end of their carreers, once Kakuryo and Hakuho retire or start to make breaks more often.

Frankly, I do not see any of the young contenders to make such a big jump to dominate the 5. Shodai has shown some great Sumo but one must not forget that he is 25 already. Terunofuji had the potential but it is absolutely unclear if he can fully recover the injury. The same for many others - they are not really young anymore, lack the size (Ishiura, Ura, Onosho), the cleverness (Kagayaki), or are already severely damaged (Endo).

 

Mostly because they received less challenge from lower rankings. They are also better at health management and all of them may keep going for another 2 to 3 years but I don't think any of them will still be active by the Tokyo Olympics. I don't want to see them dragging on like Kaio did during his last 2 years.

You say that Kise and Goeindou will eventually get yokozuna, I think you are way too optimistic. At age 30s, I don't think they have much space for further improvement. With the three yokozuna remain active and the role of two-consecutive yusho unchanged, they have little chance. 

[robnplunder 978]

End of an era has not begun yet.   The Hak/Haru/Kak era will linger on for a few more years unless sudden injuries take their toll.  But their era is numbered, given their age.   In Kyushu/16, Hak showed that he may end up being an average Yokozuna, which is still on par with Haru & better than Kak.   The point that many of us are making is that their best days may be coming to an end soon.  

[orandashoho 720]

14 hours ago, robnplunder said:

End of an era has not begun yet.   The Hak/Haru/Kak era will linger on for a few more years unless sudden injuries take their toll.  But their era is numbered, given their age.   In Kyushu/16, Hak showed that he may end up being an average Yokozuna, which is still on par with Haru & better than Kak.   The point that many of us are making is that their best days may be coming to an end soon.  

The twilight of a period of domination is always the most interesting. Successors are waiting in the wings, ready to pounce on the first sign of weakness. It is a sad thing when a reign is coming to an end, but a good thing that the yusho race has become more open.

A wounded tiger is still a dangerous animal, though.

[RabidJohn 2,056]

On 30/11/2016 at 12:53, CT3* said:

Hakuho comes back from sitting out an entire basho because of injury and surgeries, scores an 11-4 record and people are ready to write him off already? Trippy. I'll be in Tokyo for the January basho and wouldn't be at all surprised to see him win it.

I'm not basing my opinion on the result of one basho. Four different yusho winners in 2015 and five in 2016 is a reasonable indicator that Hak's dominance is at an end. That does not mean he's come to the end of the road though, cos he clearly hasn't.

[Gurowake 4,151]

Not that I think my numbers are particularly likely to be accurate given what happened last basho, but I have, to a rough approximation, yusho probabilities now of Hakuho 50%, Harumafuji 20%, Kakuryu and Kisenosato 10% each, everyone else 10% total.

[Dapeng 236]

13 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Not that I think my numbers are particularly likely to be accurate given what happened last basho, but I have, to a rough approximation, yusho probabilities now of Hakuho 50%, Harumafuji 20%, Kakuryu and Kisenosato 10% each, everyone else 10% total.

I'd like to put Hakuho's yusho probability at 30-40% in the coming years, i.e., he will take 2 yushos (3 with good luck) a year.

This years' yusho distribution pattern is ideal and I hope it will be carried into next year: the three yokozuna together take 4, the ozeki and others take the remaining two. 

Edited December 2, 2016 by Dapeng

[Fukurou 534]

Mods - Would it be possible to move the messages discussing the decline/fall of current yokozuna and who might be promoted to that rank in the future to a different (new) message thread?  Since this thread is titled for discussion of the 2016 Kyushu basho, I think discussions of the future for the yokozuna rank would be easier for people to find if that discussion was in its own thread.