Does Hakuho intentionally sacrifice himself to help his compatriots?

[DH76 1]

First post here since it hadn't occurred to me to discuss the sport before, even though I'm a big fan of the sport and have watched every tournament for the last eight years. But now I just had this thought in my head and felt the need to voice it to fellow sumo fans. Well, anyway, this is the matter:

I was very sad to see Hakuho lose during the last tournament and lose his six-tournament streak that could have had him achieve an unparalleled eight, more than Asashoryu. He gave the impression of having lost his temper during the tournament, which really didn't seem like him, so I didn't understand it.

But just now something struck me, when I browsed sumo records. Earlier, when Harumafuji was ozeki and needed a couple of yushos in order to become yokozuna, Hakuho unexpectedly lost to him, two tournaments in a row. When they were both from Ulan Bator, Mongolia, I suspected that he did it intentionally to help his compatriot.

This March, Hakuho ended his 36-match winning streak against Teronofuji, something I didn't see coming. And this May he appeared to have given away the tournament to the same guy. And where is Tero from? Ulan Bator, Mongolia. I really see a pattern here. Hakuho appears quite willing to sacrifice himself for other Mongolians. Any other thoughts about the matter? Hakuho does seem perfect, one who simply doesn't make mistakes - unless he wants to share the spoils.

[Gernobono 467]

just to make sure:

DH76 is NOT a fake-shikona of myself

Edited May 30, 2015 by Gernobono

[ALAKTORN 346]

Coincidences.

[WAKATAKE 2,726]

If he was helping Terunofuji out don`t you think he might have "lost" to him during their match this basho?

[DH76 1]

If he was helping Terunofuji out don`t you think he might have "lost" to him during their match this basho?

Hmm, don't remember the outcome of the individual matches. But maybe he wanted him to get a shot, so to speak, which he wouldn't have had if Hakuho had dominated the way he usually did. And losing to the person he was boosting might raise suspicion. My intuition tells me that Hakuho is telling his countrymen this: "If you prove your mettle well enough, I will step aside momentarily so you can have a bit of the glory too."

[luispereira 383]

​

[Masumasumasu 902]

Yes. George Bush and the Koch brothers told Hakuho to lose the yusho because it's good for big oil.

[Gaijingai 1,611]

I had coffee last week while I was in Japan with someone who is a big sumo fan. She postulates that Hakuho was giving away matches for sumo's popularity.

[luispereira 383]

I had coffee last week while I was in Japan with someone who is a big sumo fan. She postulates that Hakuho was giving away matches for sumo's popularity.

I wish we could really know if that's true or near true... one thing's for sure, hakuho losing a basho is the exception, not the rule...and that gets an extra pressure on him... and extra pressure on the rest of the guys to try harder to get a basho... he's just in another level, we're watching history, I only hope he has a clean exit from sumo and there will be a pre and post-hakuho era... (just rambling a bit here...)

[Gurowake 4,120]

I don't see Hakuho intentionally throwing all of the matches he lost. I can see him not trying particularly hard in the last bout of the basho knowing that if he loses, his countryman will be promoted to Ozeki. I can see Harumafuji trying particularly hard to help his countryman and heya-mate as well. This kind of thing is exactly why I think it's rubbish that they determined this Ozeki promotion based on how well other rikishi did in the tournament. It's not that Terunofuji doesn't deserve to be Ozeki (he's certainly better than Kotoshogiku and Goeido), but announcing before the day's bouts a new promotion criteria partly influenced by the result of Hakuho's bout definitely caused there to be the potential for it to be rigged. The sudden announcement for Goeido had less potential, as Kotoshogiku was in the Yusho race, and was about something Goeido would accomplish in his individual bout.

I think it's been said before that Hakuho enjoys "playing with his food" to make things more interesting. I don't think he's intentionally losing, but merely not trying hard enough. He's already proven himself to be the most dominant rikishi in the sport's modern history, and he could easily find it too much work and boring for the fans to put in his full effort.

[Masumasumasu 902]

If Hakuho is going to throw a match it's not going to be against Kisenosato. Terunofuji won the yusho fair and square. Furthermore, if Hakuho wanted to help give his countryman a yusho, why didn't he do it in March? It is unfortunate that Terunofuji's yusho is being chalked-up to Hakuho losing on purpose.

[Randomitsuki 2,865]

As to the original question: it depends on whom you ask. I guess that most members of this Forum are not very vocal on this topic, either because they are not particularly interested in the question, or because they are skeptical about the insinuations going along with that question.

Then there is that famous/infamous Web site Sumotalk where all writers appear to be absolutely sure that Hakuho loses intentionally, and that this only the tip of the iceberg: According to Sumotalk lore, many if not most sumo bouts are rigged, particularly if they involve Japanese Ozeki and Japanese Ozeki candidates (who are, they say, only of mid-Meagashira caliber).

Personally, I am torn in two.

On the one hand, I find the vengeance with which these claims are made at Sumotalk highly ridiculous. They base their judgments on a number of questionable or ludicrous assumptions like

- one can predict the outcome of a sumo bout with 100% accuracy

- Hakuho is so good that he would be unbeatable for the next ten years even if he were blindfolded with one arm tied behind his back

- one can detect lazy sumo by looking at sumo bouts in slow motion, followed by wild speculations of what rikishi did, and more importantly, what they did NOT during the bout

- all Japanese are sneaky and/or dumb. They are sneaky because they stage everything in sumo for their own benefit. If the allegedly staged events do not materialize, it is because they are too dumb to capitalize on it. A perfect way to make a conspiracy theory bullet-proof...

The conspiracy theory angle was nicely capture in this excellent Forum post, a personal favorite of mine.

On the other hand, I admit to feeling queasy about completely dismissing these allegations:

- many rikishi who were promoted in the past never again achieved the same levels that were required for their promotion (e.g. 33 wins as Ozeki; consecutive yusho as Yokozuna), so there might be the argument that sometimes things fell into place just too nicely.

- Japanese culture certainly values group communality to a different degree than Western cultures, so the very notion of giving something up in favor of others is not completely outlandish per se.

[Gurowake 4,120]

On the other hand, I admit to feeling queasy about completely dismissing these allegations:

- many rikishi who were promoted in the past never again achieved the same levels that were required for their promotion (e.g. 33 wins as Ozeki; consecutive yusho as Yokozuna), so there might be the argument that sometimes things fell into place just too nicely.

I've done a lot of simulations based on what I think are reasonable assumptions of changes in rikishi strength and the inherent randomness of the sport, and it's not unheard of for someone to go on a good run and get enough for promotion to Ozeki, and then fall back to just barely getting KKs. For those that manage multiple KKs at Sekiwake, and even multiple double-digit basho without managing a promotion, they very often will fall back and get multiple MKs shortly after as their luck evens out. (In actual sumo history, Dejima and Miyabiyama managed to get good/lucky enough to get across the barrier, but were not capable of even sustaining KKs). Rikishi tend to get promoted to Ozeki at the peak of their career if they're not bound to be Yokozuna, and it takes years (at the rate of decline that I postulate, which is certainly different for actual rikishi) for their skill to decrease to the point where they are not capable of maintaining the rank, leading to a large number of times that the Ozeki are clearly worse than the Sekiwake, who score 9-11 wins but can't quite get there, while the Ozeki only need KKs every other tournament to maintain their rank. So in this sense I don't feel it's at all unusual to see Kotoshogiku's career records, and I doubt he was somehow handed his promotion by others.

As for the Yokozuna, I find it plausible that they helped each other out, and their rollercoaster rides certainly look odd, but did they have the help of everyone in the sport when they made their runs? Even if they did help each other, they still had to beat everyone else. They more or less forced the promotions on the NSK instead of having to make them think hard about it. While they haven't been the most impressive of Yokozuna, they've certainly looked at least slightly better than Kisenosato.

[gijo 27]

I don't think there is a conspiracy. The only possible thing could be like doing efforts for someone else's benefit, like for friendship. Mongolians may have a deal, because they all are there just for money. And I can see from my perspective, which is far from Japanese culture, that all foreign rikishi are welcome and supported fairly. So I don't believe in a Japanese conspiracy. Sumo is about seconds, where can happen that a less ranked rikishi defeat a higher ranked one just because of the momentum, and that's why I love it. Anything can happen, anything can be debated. And most important: we will never know. I was a pro player and I can tell you that real deals are never visible and never come to the surface.

[Benevolance 2,519]

If there's any match fixing going on in sumo, it's totally the Brazilian sumotori you need to be wary of. Always handing out wins to their fellow countrymen.

[luispereira 383]

If there's any match fixing going on in sumo, it's totally the Brazilian sumotori you need to be wary of. Always handing out wins to their fellow countrymen.

is there a brazilian in sumo? ...u talking about kaisei the japanese?

[Kasutera 258]

I think it's the biggest compliment to Hakuho that any time he loses matches, people think it's on purpose.

[Asashosakari 19,885]

I've done a lot of simulations based on what I think are reasonable assumptions of changes in rikishi strength and the inherent randomness of the sport, and it's not unheard of for someone to go on a good run and get enough for promotion to Ozeki, and then fall back to just barely getting KKs. For those that manage multiple KKs at Sekiwake, and even multiple double-digit basho without managing a promotion, they very often will fall back and get multiple MKs shortly after as their luck evens out.

Yeah, there's a large dose of selection bias at work here, IMHO. Loads of rikishi never manage to win 33-in-3, why wouldn't there be some who manage it only once or perhaps twice in their career? It's just that somebody who does it once gets singled out as "ozeki" and receives extra scrutiny for the rest of his career, while somebody who never does it simply becomes a rikishi who wasn't good enough - nobody's spending any time wondering why e.g. Tochiozan keeps not posting 33 wins.

[Asashosakari 19,885]

I think it's the biggest compliment to Hakuho that any time he loses matches, people think it's on purpose.

Asashoryu used to get the same treatment from the same people. I've said it before - it's kind of funny when the very people who style themselves ultra-skeptical observers seem to be more emotionally invested in the "(dai)-yokozuna as infallible beings" notion than any other fans are. Edited May 30, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Kuroyama 715]

If there's any match fixing going on in sumo, it's totally the Brazilian sumotori you need to be wary of. Always handing out wins to their fellow countrymen.

is there a brazilian in sumo? ...u talking about kaisei the japanese?

Joke: Missed.

[Sumozumo 240]

The cost/benefit for Hakuho to throw bouts is really obvious.

If his motivation is truly 'Help Mongolians' then right now in his current position he holds a lot potential benefit for Mongolia, mostly outside of bashos. He leverages this by organizing visits to Mongolia, the basketball games, connecting governments etc.

Alternatively, he can throw bouts to let a couple of Mongolians win once in a great while. However, if this is exposed in any meaningful way, all of the potential benefit described above immediately evaporates. The risk far far far outweighs the benefits. The only way it would make sense is if he values Harumafuji, Terunofuji's personal success in a higher regard than the whole of Mongolia, and I have to be really skeptical that he would think that way (he isn't that dumb).

Conspiracy theory weak point is that you have to keep peddling the bullshit to keep the momentum, and as more bullshit is produced the chance of self contradiction approaches a limit of 1.

[Gernobono 467]

for me the rigging is obvious

and statements like "If Hakuho is going to throw a match it's not going to be against Kisenosato." are just nonsense to me....

ever thought that they all have the same employer and get their money from the same organization?

making a co-employee making feel bad is called mobbing, where i live

just to add: when harumafuji's ozeki-promotion was at stakes, a mongolian studying in germany said in the german sumochat during last day's action "if hakuho wins this bout he better not return to mongolia"........

Edited May 31, 2015 by Gernobono

[Sumozumo 240]

If its so obvious, you should inform the Japanese media with your evidence!

Also, other sports league operate with revenue sharing. For example, NFL teams get more money from the NFL than ticket sales or anything else. So most of the players are paid from the same source...

[Asameshimae 220]

If there's any match fixing going on in sumo, it's totally the Brazilian sumotori you need to be wary of. Always handing out wins to their fellow countrymen.

And those Hungarian rikishi too. They're thick as thieves. Nothing but back scratching.

[yorikiried by fate 2,034]

It is a good thing that the existence of "probability enhancement" in the outcome of certain sumo bouts is now widely accepted, also around here. If you go to the old thread about Itai's book, you can read a lot of comments sparkling with angry disbelief and denial. The purists' position has eroded during the miraculously prolonged final throes of ChiyotaiKaio's career, everyone finally got the idea that - due to the absence of Jedi powers in the real world - Baruto might not have lost that bout if he didn't choose so. The Yaocho-by-Mobile-Scandal - in the end the mass sacrifice of scapegoats at best - will have convinced the last of those with the ability to be convincable. Anybody who believes in absolutely clean sumo still is wantonly romantic.

That being said. Have we reasons to believe that there is a specific trade agreement based on Mongolian ethinicity? I find it as likely as any other explanation for bout rigging. You have the benefit-of-the-group angle, you have the economic angle, you have the basho-suspense angle, you have the 7-7-vs-8-6 angle etc. Hakuho and Asashoryu traded wins to each other. That's not a fact. But it was my impression back at the time. A possible explanation is that Asashoryu saw that Hakuho will arrive anytime soon anyway, so he helped him out with the last step a bit. From then on, it was a kind of partnership, securing a fair share of results. Hakuho probably giving more than receiving before the end of Asa's career. Win-win. Now, was that a between-Mongolians-thing? Not sure. You could also call it a between-Yokozuna-thing, as we all called the OBSC a between-Ozeki-thing.

Rikishi benefit from being able to trade unimportant losses against crucial wins. That's why such things happen and will continue to happen. The top rikishi (i.e. currently Hakuho, Hakuho and Hakuho) are in a special magagement position when it comes to top ranker events like promotions and yusho. Hakuho happens to be Mongolian as are a few others at the top. We all know that these guys would be at the top regardless, so the fact that their SMSes to each other are in written in Mongolian wouldn't make it a between-Mongolians-thing, at least for me.

In the end we are talking about men pushing each other off a clay mound. A couple of people find that entertaining. Even if someone sometimes doesn't try as hard as he could. The pushing, I mean.