Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2014

[Asashosakari 20,223]

And with Kagamiou who has the Kitazakura karma gets somehow lucky and there will only be three demotions, Amuuru needs that 9th win badly. 8 won't cut it. But Kagamiou is down this time for sure so forget I was here.

I believe you meant Kimurayama's karma. :-)

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

New ozeki Goeido is having a tough time of it as despite the occasional brilliance he's only 7-7, losing to new ozeki killer Takarafuji today. His scheduled senshuraku opponent won't be making it easy for him either, as Takekaze is also 7-7 with today's win over Ikioi and has at least secured a komusubi position for Kyushu. Also headed to sanyaku is Aoiyama after beating Yoshikaze (sending the kinboshi winner to makekoshi), as there are only two fellow maegashira who can get ahead of him in the battle for the three open spots. Those are Ichinojo who lost the leaders' matchup with yokuzuna Hakuho, and Aminishiki, also unsuccessful in his bout with Kotoshogiku. Takayasu and Tochiozan remain in the race as well with victories.

(x) kyujo Myogiryu S Takekaze 7-7

(x) 4-10 Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu 1-10-3(x)

M1

7-7 Takayasu M2

(o) 9-5 Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze 6-8 (x)

8-6 Takarafuji M4

M5 Ikioi 9-5

10-4 Aminishiki M6

M7

10-4 Tochiozan M8

M9

12-2 Ichinojo M10

Gurowake already went over the various permutations. I do suspect that Takayasu and Takarafuji will be favoured if it comes down to numerical parity between them and a contender from lower down.

Kyokushuho saved himself from his demotion worries today, beating Shohozan. Sadanofuji however lost against high-ranked Toyonoshima and is demotable by the numbers - but he might still save himself on Day 15, possibly at the expense of Chiyomaru and also depending on what'll happen in juryo. Kagamio's demotion is now sure with his 9th loss, so we have enough free spots four all 4 credible promotees.

(1) 4-10 Chiyomaru M11

M12 Sadanofuji 4-10 (?)

(x) kyujo Homasho M13

M14 Azumaryu kyujo (x)

(o) 7-7 Kyokushuho M15

(x) 5-9 Tokitenku M16 Kagamio 5-9 (x)

(o) 11-3 Tokushoryu J1 Amuru 8-6 (o)

(o) 10-4 Homarefuji J2

J3

J4 Kotoyuki 8-6 (?)

J5 Tochinoshin 14-0 (o)

Kotoyuki has played himself into contention with 5 straight wins from 3-6, and I do think they'll promote him with he adds another one, which would just leave the Chiyomaru-or-Sadanofuji question to be answered. Kotoyuki with just 8-7 is a whole different topic - that's ordinarily not good enough to get promoted even if the comparable makuuchi record is pretty bad, so he's unlikely to pull down Chiyomaru (even at 4-11). Sadanofuji with a 4-11 might just be bad enough, though. I seriously doubt anybody else can figure into the promotions as the next-best possible records are just 9-6 from J8 and 10-5 from J10.

As has been the norm the last few days it's another fairly tough opponent for Sadanofuji with 7-7 Chiyootori, while Chiyomaru goes against visiting Homarefuji. Kotoyuki faces Chiyoo for his potential promotion, so Kokonoe-beya is well-represented in the decisions here.

In lower juryo things are coming to a straight-up exchange decision. Tokushoryu beat Daido to achieve safety, but Yoshiazuma lost the crossover bout against Dewahayate and will be going back to makushita, while Dewahayate earns his sekitori debut. Akiseyama also lost to become the only juryo rikishi still in limbo.

Down in makushita Wakanoshima secured his kachikoshi, which won't be good enough for promotion but will move him into close distance for November.

J7 Masunoyama 1-4-9 (x)

(o) 5-9 Tokushinho J8

J9

J10

J11 Yoshiazuma 4-10 (x)

J12

(1) 6-8 Akiseyama J13 Chiyonokuni 3-5-6 (x)

(x) 5-9 Kyokutaisei J14 Wakakoyu 5-8 (i)

(o) 4-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 4-3 (o)

(o) 4-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 5-1 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 3-3

Ms4

Ms5 Wakanoshima 4-3

Senshuraku sees the logical matchup between Akiseyama and Tatsu for the final spot in next basho's juryo division.

Edited September 28, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara 171]

Tatsu's victory over Akiseyama might get him promoted as well I suppose ?

[Propmanoz 1]

So, using some of Asashosakari's predictions from Day 14 and looking at some of the way banzuke have been organised in the past (on a very ad-hoc basis), I have put together a possible Makuuchi banzuke for the November Basho (see below). The following assumptions have been made:

1. Where possible, to line up rikishi according to the numbers

2. Where numbers don't work precisely, give precedence to the rikishi with the greatest number of sanyaku-ranked bouts/harder schedule (one exception, see below)

3. Precedence given to promoting more than expected relative to demoting less than expected

4. Precedence given to the rikishi with the better recent performance in makuuchi

(I don't know whether these assumptions are the most relevant, but they seem logical to me). Highlighted in red are any estimations involving a promotion or demotion that is 2 or further different to the expected promotion/demotion based on the numbers. Explanations for each are written below the banzuke:

Exp = Expected movement (based on win-loss record)

Act = Actual predicted movement

Demoted rikishi:

Kagamio (6-9 from M16)

Tokitenku (6-9 from M16)

Homasho (Kyujo from M13)

Azumaryu (Kyujo from M14)

Ikioi/Ichinojo – who gets the Komusubi and the Sekiwake slots seems a toss-up. Purely by the numbers, Ichinojo should get preference. However, Ikioi defeated Ichinojo and has been unlucky in previous banzuke with good records at M5 (10-5) and M6 (11-4). Ichinojo has only shown one tournament of performance in Makuuchi, so I’ve given Ikioi the higher placement.

Toyohibiki - M5 (8-7) (+1/+3) – A little bit of luck and the performance of surrounding wrestlers means there is no one else remotely qualified to be promoted to M2, so Toyohibiki gets a bit of a lucky nudge.

Okinoumi - M15 (10-5) (+5/+8) – 3 consecutive losses to high performing rikishi in the last three days do not take away from an excellent basho, and Okinoumi seems more deserving of the extra nudge than the 4 wrestlers immediately below him (3 make-koshis and a Juryo promotion)

Shohozan - M7 (6-9) (-3/-1) – Gets a little lucky, on the basis that he faced a tougher schedule than Homarefuji and Sadanoumi beneath him.

Sadanoumi - M12 (8-7) (+1/+3) – Also in the fortunate pile, with a greater than expected promotion, due to facing a tougher schedule than Homarefuji below him.

Chiyomaru M11 (4-11) (-7/-5) and Sadanofuji M12 (4-11) (-7/-4) – Sadanofuji especially gets extremely lucky, as no more than four Juryo rikishi put in a promotable performance (Kotoyuki’s 8-7 from J4 doesn’t seem enough). Basically, these two probably should have been demoted on the numbers, but underperformance in the J2-4 ranks save them.

Thoughts?

Edited September 28, 2014 by Propmanoz

[bettega 433]

I have a gut feeling that they'll put Ichonojo at M1 (In jonokuchi...)

[Tsubame 378]

Did you just spoil the "Guess the banzuke" game? (Laughing...)

[Chiyozakura 163]

Thoughts?

I would promote Kotoyuki and drop Sadanofuji. 4-11 from Maegashira 12 is just too bad to stay so Kotoyuki should get lucky.

[torquato 1,075]

Where's the border betwen game and real life? Ichinojo goes to M1e, no doubt! :-D

Edited September 28, 2014 by torquato

[Propmanoz 1]

Did you just spoil the "Guess the banzuke" game? (Laughing...)

No, I'm just the first one to play it :)

[Propmanoz 1]

I have a gut feeling that they'll put Ichonojo at M1 (In jonokuchi...)

Where's the border betwen game and real life? Ichinojo goes to M1e, no doubt! :-D

Who would you put to Komusubi instead? Aminishiki?

I would promote Kotoyuki and drop Sadanofuji. 4-11 from Maegashira 12 is just too bad to stay so Kotoyuki should get lucky.

I suppose the question is which is luckier - a extra three ranks promotion for an 8-7, or a 4 rank demotion for a 4-11 (that follows consecutive 9-6's in Juryo before). It does seem a line-ball one though - no real good answer.

Edited September 28, 2014 by Propmanoz

[torquato 1,075]

Where's the border betwen game and real life? Ichinojo goes to M1e, no doubt! :-D

Who would you put to Komusubi instead? Aminishiki?

Yes, indeed. Just switch them. Besides, I'd put Aminishiki to Kw, Takekaze to Ke, Ichinojo to M1e... Doesn't seem to be unfair right..?

Isn't Sanyaku still a bit about honour proven over time? And not only about a rooky giving one great shot? ... Mhhh... We we'll see...

Some of your placements look very good and reasonably to me... However, I'm a complete lunatic and amateur on this topic... :-D

Edited September 28, 2014 by torquato

[Chiyozakura 163]

I would promote Kotoyuki and drop Sadanofuji. 4-11 from Maegashira 12 is just too bad to stay so Kotoyuki should get lucky.

I suppose the question is which is luckier - a extra three ranks promotion for an 8-7, or a 4 rank demotion for a 4-11 (that follows consecutive 9-6's in Juryo before). It does seem a line-ball one though - no real good answer.

I seem to have a different view on banzuke matters than most people on this forum because I still believe that Tochinoshin's placement on this banzuke was perfectly reasonable and I think the reason is that I do not calculate based on "extra" ranks. An 8-7 can keep you in the same position, a standard promotion would be one-two ranks, but if there is space higher up then you can make a good jump. My prime example has always been Ganyu making M#1 from M#8 with just an 8-7. So Kotoyuki at M#16 would be fine while Sadanofuji should drop at least five complete ranks and thus out of Makuuchi. His performance was just too bad for his position to keep him in and thus the next available guy should be lucky.

But the great thing about the banzuke is that there are no fixed rules and I could be totally wrong. :-)

[Morty 1,518]

I have a gut feeling that they'll put Ichonojo at M1 (In jonokuchi...)

I agree

[Mongolith 51]

I think putting Ichonojo at M1 under Aminishiki would be unfair. Ami only had to face one Ozeki who he lost to and then had a chance to beat out Icho for the Komosubi slot on the last day but failed on that also. Not only did Icho get 3 more wins but beat 2 Ozeki and a Yokozuna.

[Taigiin khuu 42]

The joijin is going to be rather Isegahama heavy next basho :-) . Hopefully the sanyaku ranks remain healthier than in Aki.

[krindel 688]

I think putting Ichonojo at M1 under Aminishiki would be unfair. Ami only had to face one Ozeki who he lost to and theni had a chance to beat out Icho for the Komosubi slot on the last day but failed on that also. Not only did Icho get 3 more wins but beat 2 Ozeki and a Yokozuna.

Yes, but Aminishiki is a long-time veteran who's proven his sanyaku-worthiness while Ichinojo still has to conclusively prove he's here to stay. After all, they can't help but think that either from M1 or from Komusubi / Sekiwake, if he can pull off another result like that he'll be on the start of an Ozeki run, and none of this will matter... I am not saying its fair, but lets face it, sumo is by default not always fair when it comes to seniority...

I, for one also think he'll end up at M1.

[Fukurou 534]

I think putting Ichonojo at M1 under Aminishiki would be unfair. Ami only had to face one Ozeki who he lost to and theni had a chance to beat out Icho for the Komosubi slot on the last day but failed on that also. Not only did Icho get 3 more wins but beat 2 Ozeki and a Yokozuna.

Yes, but Aminishiki is a long-time veteran who's proven his sanyaku-worthiness while Ichinojo still has to conclusively prove he's here to stay. After all, they can't help but think that either from M1 or from Komusubi / Sekiwake, if he can pull off another result like that he'll be on the start of an Ozeki run, and none of this will matter... I am not saying its fair, but lets face it, sumo is by default not always fair when it comes to seniority...

I, for one also think he'll end up at M1.

I think Endo's struggles have and will come into play (consciously or not) when it comes to ranking Ichinojo. Both started at Ms15TD and both won the Yusho in their Juryo debut 2 basho later. From there -

July 2013 Endo went 14-1Y at J13, then 9 wins at M13, then 6 wins at M7, 11 wins at M10, and has struggled since (1 kk in 4 basho).

May 2014 Ichinojo went 11-4Y at J10, 13-2D at J3, now 13-2J at M10.

Although his record may not let them, I think the banzuke committee is going to take any opportunity to promote Ichinojo slower. For one, he's not the great Japanese hype. For another, he's 2 1/2 years younger than Endo, so there's plenty of time. And on the third hand, can they afford another public flame out of a rising young rikishi right now? Bad for the box office.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Yes, but Aminishiki is a long-time veteran who's proven his sanyaku-worthiness ...

Who's more likely to get a kachikoshi next basho, Aminishiki whose last joi KK was nearly two years ago and last sanyaku KK nearly five, or Ichinojo?

[krindel 688]

Yes, but Aminishiki is a long-time veteran who's proven his sanyaku-worthiness ...

Who's more likely to get a kachikoshi next basho, Aminishiki whose last joi KK was nearly two years ago and last sanyaku KK nearly five, or Ichinojo?

Definitely Ichinojo (although I don't actually expect another double digit score next time around)... I wasn't talking about sanyaku-worhiness as it pertains to perceived quality, but merely in the "having paid his dues" sense. My point was that Komusubi and M1 have virtually no difference when it comes to opponents or promotion possibilities, so its just a prestige / money issue, and I think its quite possible they'll short-change Ichinojo on that.

Edit: For what its worth, my guess is that in the choice of Chiyotairyu over Terunofuji last time that reasoning also played a part

Edited September 28, 2014 by krindel

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Day 15:

Hakuho won his 3rd straight yusho and 31st overall by beating his fellow yokozuna Kakuryu to finish 14-1, ahead of sole jun-yusho winner Ichinojo whose senshuraku victory over Aminishiki wasn't enough. Goeido managed to avoid kadoban status after all, winning against Takekaze in a rare Day 15 sanyaku 7-7 bout.

The two remaining joi-jin contenders for the sanyaku spots, Takayasu and Takarafuji, both lost today, against the Kasugano duo of Aoiyama and Tochiozan, while Ikioi won a crucial bout against underranked Okinoumi. That leaves us with:

(x) kyujo Myogiryu S Takekaze 7-8 (d)

(x) 4-11 Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu 1-10-4(x)

M1

(x) 7-8 Takayasu M2

(o) 10-5 Aoiyama M3

8-7 Takarafuji M4

M5 Ikioi 10-5 (o)

10-5 Aminishiki M6

M7

11-4 Tochiozan M8

M9

(o) 13-2 Ichinojo M10

With Aoiyama the only credible sanyaku candidate to fight a joi schedule, I'm inclined to go straight by the numbers for the other two spots here, which would mean Aoiyama and Ichinojo as the next sekiwake pair, and Ikioi joining Takekaze at komusubi.

Kotoyuki didn't make much of his late push towards juryo, losing to Chiyoo, but he may be lucky that Sadanofuji and Chiyomaru also weren't able to improve their records. All four juryo rikishi who are definitely going up did win today, and all should enjoy pretty healthy promotions into the maegashira ranks. Tochinoshin of course even completed the rare zensho record - congrats!

(o) 4-11 Chiyomaru M11

M12 Sadanofuji 4-11 (?)

(x) kyujo Homasho M13

M14 Azumaryu kyujo (x)

M15

(?) 6-9 Tokitenku M16 Kagamio 6-9 (x)

(o) 12-3 Tokushoryu J1 Amuru 9-6 (o)

(o) 11-4 Homarefuji J2

J3

J4 Kotoyuki 8-7 (?)

J5 Tochinoshin 15-0 (o)

With there pretty much being no 6th potential promotee (it would have to be Chiyoo with 9 wins at J8w), Chiyomaru should be safe despite today's loss. The final spot looks to be decided between Sadanofuji, Kotoyuki or even Tokitenku. I have no idea yet which way I'll be going in my GTB entry, but if I had to decide at this moment I just might be putting the Mongolian kicker at M16w.

The next juryo banzuke will be a lot of fun in any case - there are only 11 kachikoshi in the division, of which 4 or 5 will be going to makuuchi. I actually built my quick first draft from both the top and the bottom of the division (which is a rather unusual approach, to say the least), and I can only manage to fill J1e-J3w and J9w-J14e with something approaching sensibility. The spots in between...well, go have a try.

At any rate, the last available spot in the second division was battled over by big Akiseyama and long-awaited talent Tatsu today, with the latter winning it to (probably) secure his juryo debut. Assuming he does go up, it'll be the very first time (excluding the highly unusual Natsu 2011 tournament) that the top 6 makushita rikishi have all got promoted. A 9-3 record between makushita and juryo can go a long way...

Last not least, Iwasaki completed a strong 6-1 record with another win today.

J7 Masunoyama 1-4-10(x)

...

J11 Yoshiazuma 4-11 (x)

J12

(x) 6-9 Akiseyama J13 Chiyonokuni 3-5-7 (x)

(x) 5-10 Kyokutaisei J14 Wakakoyu 5-8 (i)

(o) 4-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 4-3 (o)

(o) 4-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 6-1 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 4-3 (o)

Ms4

Ms5 Wakanoshima 4-3

With likely four debutants the next juryo competition should be pretty interesting at the bottom, if nothing else. I wonder how many among the quartet will be getting a new shikona?

Edited September 28, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara 171]

Why is Goeido actually on O2W ? And will he not move to O2E now ?

[kuroimori 1,634]

Why is Goeido actually on O2W ? And will he not move to O2E now ?

this could be called "banzuke balance"

As there are 3 Yokozuna, there is some imbalance created by the Y2 East rank. This is corrected by moving the 3rd Ozeki to the O2 West slot.

They would run into problems if the sanyaku would be too "East-heavy", e.g. during the sanyaku soroibumi on senshuraku.

[ALAKTORN 346]

I’ll join the bandwagon saying Ichinojō will be M1.

[Gurowake 4,149]

Here's my first pass at Juryo. It didn't seem all that hard to get something somewhat reasonable, although I'm probably being far too nice to Homasho and Azumaryu.

Tokitenku	1	Kagamio
Sadanofuji	2	Chiyoo
Homasho	3	Satoyama
Azumaryu	4	Seiro
Shotenro	5	Tosayutaka
Sotairyu	6	Wakanosato
Fujiazuma	7	Asasekiryu
Gagamaru	8	Tamaasuka
Asahisho	9	Daido
Tokushinho	10	Kitaharima
Daieisho	11	Iwasaki
Tenkaiho	12	Tochihiryu
Sakigake	13	Kotoeko
Dewayahate	14	Tatsu

[krindel 688]

... long-awaited talent Tatsu ..

I always found it funny how everyone (including myself) has at one time or other referred to Tatsu with something along those lines (I've even read him somewhere in here called "former hope"), when the guy is still becoming the youngest current sekitori :-)

I guess that's what he gets for being uncommonly good when he was 18 ;-)

[yorikiried by fate 2,038]

I tended to suck at GTB at the latest when the current mental banzuke making style was established (and thus I stopped playing), but I also think Aoiyama and Ichinojo should go to Sekiwake with Takekaze moving to Ke and the 10-5 pair to Kw and M1e respectively.

I don't know if this counts more for the banzuke makers than a determined dart throw, but Ichinojo's opponents are strongly supporting his cause. He has won three of his four bouts against the Y-O bunch, he won eight of his thirteen against KK rikishi, of whom four ended up with double digits. It's hard to think of a plausbly stronger opposition if you consider his rank. He could have done only better by taking the yusho, I guess.