Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Natsu 2025

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

So all the exchanges (sanyaku, M-J, J-Ms) look pretty straightforward in the end, except possibly Kyokukaiyu vs. Miyanokaze...

Would they leave Kyoku out after he beat Mudoho (granted it was only day ten), won his last match, and Miya blew his final chances to secure his spot?

[Reonito 1,613]

54 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Would they leave Kyoku out after he beat Mudoho (granted it was only day ten), won his last match, and Miya blew his final chances to secure his spot?

I mean, they've done wacky stuff before, I hope not, but it'll be an interesting data point.

[Reonito 1,613]

We don't think Onosato leapfrogs Hoshoryu for Y1e, right? And Kotozakura on the east side and WTK on the west? There are some older banzuke where the S2 is on the east, balance be damned.

[Koorifuu 1,079]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

We don't think Onosato leapfrogs Hoshoryu for Y1e, right?

The only time that's happened in the last 50 years was Takanohana's promotion, and it certainly hasn't been their modus operandi for ozeki either. That'd be quite something.

[WAKATAKE 2,732]

Onosato will Yokozuna-Ozeki for Nagoya 2025

[Tigerboy1966 1,539]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

We don't think Onosato leapfrogs Hoshoryu for Y1e, right? And Kotozakura on the east side and WTK on the west? There are some older banzuke where the S2 is on the east, balance be damned.

I can't see any chance of Hoshoryu being leapfrogged. The only sanyaku puzzle is whether Kirishima goes ahead of Daieisho at S1e. There are recent examples showing that it could go either way.

[Reonito 1,613]

7 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I can't see any chance of Hoshoryu being leapfrogged. The only sanyaku puzzle is whether Kirishima goes ahead of Daieisho at S1e. There are recent examples showing that it could go either way.

Yeah, I guess most recently it's Kyushu 2022 vs. Kyushu 2023...

[WAKATAKE 2,732]

YDC has voted to recommend Onosato to the rank of Yokozuna. It took all of six minutes for the conversation to conclude.

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202505250002519.html

[Koorifuu 1,079]

1 hour ago, WAKATAKE said:

YDC has voted to recommend Onosato to the rank of Yokozuna. It took all of six minutes for the conversation to conclude.

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202505250002519.html

Five and a half of which was to finish saying good morning to each other.

[Gurowake 4,123]

Not that I expect any of these alternative scenarios to happen, but I went over the various possibilities for Komusubi in terms of what doesn't actually break the fundamental rules.  It's possible that they decide not to promote WTK, but that seems rather unlikely not just in precedent but also that he (probably) has the best shot at Ozeki promotion next basho, assuming he's Sekiwake, compared to the other two Sekiwake.  I'd only discount him 1 win for starting at M1, while he has 2 more than the other Sekiwake over the last two tournaments.  It's also possible that they decide to keep Takayasu as a Komusubi, but that's never happened any time recently (if ever) with a 6-9 K1e.

Assuming that there is at least one Komusubi spot open, the only two options for the first one are Oshoma and Aonishiki, so unless both of those rather unlikely things happens above, one of them will make their debut.  If they somehow select Aonishiki for the first spot, then Oshoma has to get the second slot, if it exists.  If Oshoma is the first one promoted, which is more likely, then in theory they could choose Hakuoho or Onokatsu rather than Aonishiki for the second slot.  Neither of these guys have any compelling reason to be taken over Aonishiki that could be used to ignore the general by-the-numbers approach, and it would be a huge curveball to choose Hakuoho, but Onokatsu isn't as much of a stretch.  If they're going to be unwilling to give Aonishiki the spot if they can find someone with a bit more Makuuchi experience, Onokatsu would be a reasonable call, but being at his highest rank last basho makes it unlikely that they'd consider the few basho of extra Makuuchi experience to really be worth anything.  That Onokatsu backed into his 10-5 without facing any sanyaku while Aonishiki faced 3 of them makes it even less compelling to ignore the by-the-numbers approach, though that does make the case slightly more compelling for Hakuoho who faced 4, and who I feel was hard-done by the schedulers, and they can make it up to him by giving him an outsized promotion since there's no one else above him but below sanyaku with a KK other than Oshoma, though to Komusubi West still feels like too much of a stretch.

So sure, there are things that they might decide to do rather than make Aonishiki a Komusubi in a shattering of the speedrun record from Maezumo, but there really aren't any compelling reasons for them to do that.  If Tobizaru had won his last match, I would have been mentioning him getting a promotion as a possibility just as someone with sanyaku experience with a KK high enough to legally be able to be promoted ahead of Aonishiki, but even then it would have been a big stretch, and with Tobizaru losing the match, it's definitely not happening.  I suppose though since it would have meant a loss by WTK it would have made not promoting the latter a bit more palatable, so it would have been slightly more reasonable to expect a second spot not actually opening, but 11 win K->S is firmly established.

Edited May 29 by Gurowake

[Akinomaki 41,179]

23 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Tachimochi - Takayasu, tsuyuharai - Ryuuden.

So we can expect Ryuden to stay in makuuchi with a 5-10 at m15e

[Bunbukuchagama 827]

17 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

So we can expect Ryuden to stay in makuuchi with a 5-10 at m15e

He is technically in Makuuchi till the next banzuke gets released.

[Reonito 1,613]

26 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

So we can expect Ryuden to stay in makuuchi with a 5-10 at m15e

That would be ... surprising (and I don't mean just because of the rank and record).

[Reonito 1,613]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I suppose though since it would have meant a loss by WTK it would have made not promoting the latter a bit more palatable, so it would have been slightly more reasonable to expect a second spot not actually opening, but 11 win K->S is firmly established.

I've never considered that they might not promote someone who's earned it just because it creates a hard-to-fill opening; my assumption is that they start from the top and then deal with "holes" in the banzuke as they get to them. I feel like this is the only real counterexample we've seen recently, but it went in the other direction, with multiple guys getting promoted to sanyaku who normally wouldn't be just to relieve the logjam below (it's also by far my worst GTB score, since I refused to go with that option).

[Akinomaki 41,179]

8 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He is technically in Makuuchi till the next banzuke gets released.

Of course, but a yokozuna usually doesn't pick an attendant that lasts only a few weeks - and of course, officially he doesn't know if Ryuden stays or not

Edited May 30 by Akinomaki

[Akinomaki 41,179]

Ah, and of course, there is something about the heya of Ryuden that may favour him to get special treatment.

With heya mate Shonannoumi beyond saving, the heya of the top shimpan would lose all makuuchi rikishi - and as erratic as he proved to be on shimpan duties the last 2 basho, he is capable of any blunder.

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

There's no way Ryuden stays. Even if they were willing to do it at the expense of someone coming up, and drastically split up him and Shonannoumi despite them both being 5-10 at the same rank, they would also have to ignore the fact that by rights he should be behind Shishi and Nishikigi regardless of where they all specifically end up. There's just... no way.

[Reonito 1,613]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

There's no way Ryuden stays. Even if they were willing to do it at the expense of someone coming up, and drastically split up him and Shonannoumi despite them both being 5-10 at the same rank, they would also have to ignore the fact that by rights he should be behind Shishi and Nishikigi regardless of where they all specifically end up. There's just... no way.

He's 4th in line to go, with a clearly demotable score, and we have 4 rock-solid promotions, plus a solid case for a 5th, so while we've seen them depart from all sorts of banzuke principles we thought had to be followed (Ura ahead of Chiyoshoma comes to mind), this would be way out there.

[Akinomaki 41,179]

Sponichi guesses for the division exchanges http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/05/27/kiji/20250527s00005000098000c.html

Makuuchi - unavoidably down: Ryuden, Shonannoumi, Nishikigi, Tamashoho and Tochitaikai, up: Mitakeumi, Hidenoumi return, Kusano, Wakaikari and Kotoeiho new with certainty.

The juryo guess was: Wakanosho, Miyanokaze and Mudoho with results that likely make them drop, Otsuji, Kotokuzan return and Kyokukaiyu very likely new 

- about Kyokukaiyu not promoted o : completely unexpected - apparently Miyanokaze "miraculously" not demoted

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

so am I crazy for thinking Takayasu will get to stick around? I looked at the matchups for Aonishiki (and Onokatsu, and Kinbozan) to close out the tournament and felt like none of them had been taken too seriously, but there might not be any precedent backing this opinion.

[Reonito 1,613]

19 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

I looked at the matchups for Aonishiki (and Onokatsu, and Kinbozan) to close out the tournament and felt like none of them had been taken too seriously

What would constitute them "being taken seriously"?

[maglor 125]

3 hours ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

so am I crazy for thinking Takayasu will get to stick around? I looked at the matchups for Aonishiki (and Onokatsu, and Kinbozan) to close out the tournament and felt like none of them had been taken too seriously, but there might not be any precedent backing this opinion.

I think that is untrue. Aonishiki fought his fellow high-achieving Maegashira Hakuoho on Day 13, then Atamifuji fighting for his KK on Day 14, then a 10 win Sadanoumi on Day 15.

This is basically the same as WTK's schedule to close out the basho - high-achieving M17 Asakoryu on Day 13, Hiradoumi fighting for his KK on day 14, then Tobizaru fighting for his KK on day 15.

Are these softer schedules than just being thrown some joi guys? Yes, but schedulers like to ensure that both rikishi are motivated and so high-performing rikishi not in the yusho race often get relatively easier matchups by fighting 10win low maegashira and 6-7/7-6/7-7 guys.

No 6-9 Sekiwake has ever stayed at Komusubi in the 6 basho era, including 2015/01 where a 6-9 S was dropped to Maegashira in favor of a 9-6 M6, a 9-6 M8 and a 10-5 M9.

Generally speaking the banzuke committee approaches things from the top down, giving the higher rankers their "correct" spot and fitting the lower guys around them. Of course this new banzuke committee seems to favor incumbents/higher ranked rikishi more, but I'd still be quite shocked if Takayasu stuck around - I think it's 5% at best.

A 11-4 M9 is hardly the sky falling - it's a 2 rank overpromotion.

Edited June 3 by maglor

[Akinomaki 41,179]

Sponichi banzuke forecast for sanyaku http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/05/27/kiji/20250527s00005000096000c.html

Aonishiki fastest ever to sanyaku, Daieisho, Kirishima and Wakatakakage ozeki run?

Double digits at komusubi regularly lead to sekiwake promotion, even when no spot opens. Over the last 2 basho Wakatakakage has 21, the other 2 19 wins, only 1 ozeki now, so the race is open.

If Wakatakakage is promoted, 2 komusubi spots open, Oshoma and Aonishiki are expected to be promoted. For Aonishiki that would be 11 basho to sanyaku, fastest ever (from maezumo) so far are Konishiki and Kotooshu with 14.

[Reonito 1,613]

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Double digits at komusubi regularly lead to sekiwake promotion, even when no spot opens.

This is a little imprecise on their part, it has to be more than 10.

1 hour ago, Akinomaki said:

Over the last 2 basho Wakatakakage has 21, the other 2 19 wins, only 1 ozeki now, so the race is open.

I can see them promoting WTK with another 12-3; the others likely need at least 13, maybe more if it's not a yusho.

[dingo 1,388]

On 30/05/2025 at 09:15, Akinomaki said:

Of course, but a yokozuna usually doesn't pick an attendant that lasts only a few weeks - and of course, officially he doesn't know if Ryuden stays or not

Can it work in reverse? If a yokozuna picks an attendant that rikishi will have a higher chance of staying due to his new assignment. I assume that would be preposterous but sometimes preposterous things happen in sumo...