Yamanashi 3,988 Posted June 6 5 hours ago, Reonito said: Oh, I missed that, it's quite something and a testament to his longevity. Shoot, man, he was a member of Naruto stable -- the old Naruto stable. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,943 Posted June 9 (edited) Time to temporarily revive the thread with some banzuke guesses... Juryo Kotoeiho (J7w 11-4) J1 Ryuden (M15e 5-10) Shonannoumi (M15w 5-10) J2 Tomokaze (J7e 10-5) Oshoumi (J9e 10-5) J3 Tamashoho (M17e 4-11) Tochitaikai (M18e 4-11) J4 Shirokuma (J3w 6-9) Tohakuryu (J10e 9-6) J5 Hakuyozan (J4e 6-9) Hitoshi (J6e 7-8) J6 Daiseizan (J6w 7-8) Kagayaki (J4w 6-9) J7 Kazekeno (J11e 9-6) Takarafuji (J3e 5-10) J8 Fujiseiun (J2w 4-11) Nishikifuji (J5e 5-10) J9 Tsurugisho (J9w 7-8) Mitoryu (J12e 8-7) J10 Nabatame (J12w 8-7) Shiden (J8w 6-9) J11 Mita (J14e 8-5-1) Otsuji (Ms3e 7-0 Y) J12 Shimanoumi (J8e 5-10) Hatsuyama (J10w 6-9) J13 Daiamami (J13w 7-8) Miyanokaze (J13e 6-9) J14 Kotokuzan (Ms4w 5-2) Some of the usual underdemotions that we've become accustomed to, but not nearly as extreme as some other recent rankings. I don't see any compelling reason to expect Otsuji higher than J12e, but maaaybe he sneaks in ahead of Mita. Makushita-joi Kyokukaiyu (Ms5e 5-2) Ms1 Ishizaki (Ms4e 4-3) Asahakuryu (Ms8w 5-2) Ms2 Asanoyama (Ms14w 6-1) Mudoho (J14w 5-10) Ms3 Kitanowaka (Ms1e 3-4) Satorufuji (Ms7e 4-3) Ms4 Takakento (Ms12e 5-2) Nishinoryu (Ms8e 4-3) Ms5 Dewanoryu (Ms2w 3-4) Inami (Ms9e 4-3) Ms6 Wakanosho (J11w 1-2-12) Akua (Ms1w 2-5) Ms7 Oshoryu (Ms2e 2-5) Gojinyu (Ms16w 5-2) Ms8 Hananoumi (Ms11w 4-3) Anosho (Ms23e 6-1) Ms9 Tochimusashi (Ms5w 3-4) Toseiryu (Ms15e 4-3) Ms10 Kamito (Ms20w 5-2) Kazuto (Ms21e 5-2) Ms11 Goshima (Ms28e 6-1) Kazenoumi (Ms22w 5-2) Ms12 Okaryu (Ms17w 4-3) Fujinoyama (Ms19e 4-3) Ms13 Matsui (Ms19w 4-3) Nagamura (Ms20e 4-3) Ms14 Hatooka (Sd16w 7-0 Y) Hamayutaka (Ms9w 3-4) Ms15 Fukuzaki (Ms39w 6-1) Enho (Ms10w 3-4) Ms16 Chiyomaru (Ms11e 3-4) Some very lucky rikishi in the top 5 ranks, especially at Ms2/3, but somebody has to fill those slots... I'd say the only serious question is whether they might have decided to be generous to Wakanosho at the expense of one of the last three guys that I have in. Great projected luck also for Akua and Oshoryu, comparable to what Tochimaru had last time (Ms2w 2-5 -> Ms7w; my guess had him at Ms9w and I had thought that was already lenient). Could be totally wrong; their 2-5 demotions have been rather difficult to make sense of in recent months. As you can see I don't expect Enho to hang on to a top 15 spot, although it's close. An almost identical situation last time ended up as: Ms15 Kaiseijo (Ms21w 4-3) Kawazoe (Ms39e 6-1) Ms16 Gojinyu (Ms10w 3-4) There's nobody available to force out both the 6-1 and the 3-4 this time, and I've decided to expect the same relative order for them with the 6-1 taking the last slot although that's higher than a Ms39w 6-1 can ordinarily expect to land. (But since Asashiyu went Ms40w -> Ms15e for March, I no longer trust my personal metrics or the long-term historical record.) For completeness, "nobody available" means that the next theoretical candidates at other scores are: Ms33e 5-2, Ms24e 4-3, Ms12w 2-5, Ms6e 1-6. I can't see any of these being in the conversation for Ms15w. Assuming the top 15 in/out decisions are accurate there are 12 rikishi moving into the extended promotion zone, at the expense of: Enho (Ms10w 3-4) Chiyomaru (Ms11e 3-4) Nobehara (Ms13e 3-4) Narutaki (Ms13w 3-4) Chiyotora (Ms14e 3-4) Tendozan (Ms12w 2-5) Kaiseijo (Ms15w 2-5) Daishoho (Ms6e 1-6) Tochimaru (Ms7w 0-2-5) Kiryuko (Ms6w 0-0-7) Hokutofuji (Ms3w 0-0-2 intai) Hokutomaru (Ms10e 0-0-7 intai) Edited June 9 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,943 Posted June 9 (edited) Projected movements between the lower divisions: Promotions from sandanme MsTd x3 7-0 x1 Sd16w 6-1 x5 Sd4e, Sd12w, Sd28w, Sd39e, Sd45w 5-2 x9 Sd5e, Sd6w, Sd9w, Sd13e, Sd14w, Sd20e, Sd21e, Sd22w, Sd25e 4-3 x5 Sd4w, Sd5w, Sd7e, Sd8w, Sd10w -------- x23 (summary) Likely demotions from makushita intai x4 Ms3w, Ms10e, Ms37w, Ms49w 0-0-7 x3 Ms60e, Ms43e, Ms32w 0-7 x1 Ms47w 1-6 x3 Ms54w, Ms40e, Ms39e 2-5 x7 Ms59e, Ms57w, Ms56e, Ms51e, Ms46w, Ms45w, Ms44e, (Ms34e) 3-4 x5 Ms60w, Ms58w, Ms55e, Ms53w, Ms52e, (Ms50e, Ms49e, Ms48e) -------- x23 Actually even two more promoted rikishi than they needed to make room for after Haru basho, which resulted in some record-setting demotions, but the many intai and 0-0-7's ensure that such extreme measures won't be hitting the active competitors this time around. I would be shocked if my projection isn't correct here; Ms52e can't possibly be saved (the next candidates at all other scores are miles away), and demoting Ms50e 3-4 to save Ms44e 2-5 or Ms39e 1-6 would also be highly unusual. Shin-makushita for Nagoya [Videos] Furuta (Sd5w 4-3) Fujiizumi (Sd39e 6-1) One of the shorter lists of debutants ever, although these numbers are becoming increasingly hard to evaluate properly with the increased number of makushita tsukedashi starters that we're getting now. (They skew the numbers for two different tournaments, the one in which they make their pro debut and the hypothetical one that would have seen their makushita debut from a maezumo or SdTd start.) Promotions from jonidan MsTd x3 7-0 x2 Jd21e, Jd61e 6-1 x5 Jd4w, Jd24w, Jd31e, Jd33w, Jd45e 5-2 x12 Jd4e, Jd5e, Jd10w, Jd11e, Jd12w, Jd14e, Jd18e, Jd18w, Jd22e, Jd32w, Jd34e, Jd34w 4-3 x11 Jd3w, Jd5w, Jd8e, Jd9w, Jd10e, Jd11w, Jd15e, Jd17w, Jd19e, Jd20e, Jd20w -------- x33 (summary) Likely demotions from sandanme intai x5 Ms3w, Ms10e, Ms37w, Ms49w, Sd68w 0-0-7 x3 Sd77e, Sd74w, Sd33e 0-7 x1 Sd44w 1-6 x4 Sd71e, Sd65w, Sd58w, Sd41e, (Sd38w) 2-5 x9 Sd72w, Sd71w, Sd69w, Sd62e, Sd61e, Sd59w, Sd57e, Sd50w, Sd49w, (Sd48w, Sd46w, Sd44e) 3-4 x11 Sd80w, Sd78w, Sd77w, Sd75w, Sd73w, Sd72e, Sd68e, Sd67w, Sd66w, Sd64e, Sd61w, (Sd59e, Sd55w) -------- x33 Sd49w 2-5 or (much less likely IMHO) Sd41e 1-6 could conceivably be saved at the expense of Sd59e 3-4, and alternatively the 2-5 could also hang on with Sd38w 1-6 getting sent down instead. The above is what I consider the most probable solution, though. Shin-sandanme for Nagoya [Videos] Tamatensho (Jd15e 4-3) Yumenofuji (Jd20e 4-3) Okada (Jd22e 5-2) Sunasaka (Jd34w 5-2) Tenrosei (Jd61e 7-0 D) Jd/Jk split 212 Jd 50 Jk - 11 intai - 2 >Bg + 3 MsTd + 12 Mz ---- 264 = 132 ranks This will be the first time since 2010 that the number of ranked rikishi on the (printed) banzuke expands from May to July, albeit by just two. Likely to be in Jk Mz x12 Jk 0-7 x1 Jk23e Jk 1-6 x6 Jk24w, Jk23w, Jk6e, Jk3e, Jk2e, Jk1w [Jk24e is intai] Jk 2-5 x6 Jk25e, Jk15w, Jk11w, Jk5e, Jk3w, Jk2w Jk 3-5w x1 Jk9w Jk 3-4 x12 Jk25w, Jk21w, Jk20w, Jk19w, Jk18e, Jk17w, Jk17e, Jk13w, Jk13e, Jk12e, Jk4w, Jk4e Jd 0-0-7 x5 Jd90e, Jd85w, Jd81w, Jd63e, Jd43w Jd 0-7 x2 Jd89e, Jd57w Jd 1-6 x2 Jd95w, Jd87e, (Jd84w, Jd73w) Jd 2-5 x1 Jd104w, (Jd97w, Jd96e, Jd94w, Jd83w) [Jd100w is intai] Jd 3-4 x0 (Jd106w, Jd106e, Jd103e, Jd102w, Jd102e, Jd99w) ----------- x48 => 108 Jd, 24 Jk The last jonidan 0-0-7 and 0-7 are close enough to perhaps be spared, but I don't expect to see the same leniency that occurred on the Natsu banzuke. I'm not sure that it's possible to make the jonokuchi ranks any smaller. Jd87e 1-6 is arguably high enough to warrant a reprieve, but then we would need to save another rikishi as well, and the other Jd 1-6 and the one Jd 2-5 just don't deserve it IMHO, and I don't feel any makekoshi promotions from Jk to Jd are warranted either. As such, if they're going for a different cut it's probably more likely to see a larger jonokuchi with some more demotions from jonidan taking place. There's no shortage of candidates with the Jd84w 1-6, the next three 2-5's and the first five 3-4's. My personal second guess would probably be 106 Jd, 26 Jk (keeping jonidan at the size from Natsu) with Jd106w and Jd106e 3-4 as well as Jd97w and Jd96e 2-5 getting demoted additionally to the above. Edited June 9 by Asashosakari 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 827 Posted June 9 2 hours ago, Asashosakari said: Kotoeiho (J7w 11-4) This is a bit controversial... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,613 Posted June 9 (edited) On 25/05/2025 at 13:41, Reonito said: So, who is going to be in the Ms1-Ms5 promotion zone in Nagoya? Juryo dropouts: 1. Miyanokaze, 2. Mudoho Ms1-Ms5 KK: 3. Ishizaki Ms1-Ms5 MK: 4. Kitanowaka, (Dewanoryu?) 6 wins: 5. Asanoyama, (Anosho?) 5 wins: 6. Asahakuryu, 7. Takakento, (Gojinyu?) 4 wins: 8. Satorufuji, (Nishinoryu, Inami?) Looks like two spots left for some combo of Ms2w Dewanoryu (3-4), Ms8e Nishinoryu (4-3), Ms9e Inami (4-3), Ms16w Gojinyu (5-2), Ms23e Anosho (6-1). Looks like I wasn't too far off, with Dewanoryu and Nishinoryu as the choices above. I figured Gojinyu/Anosho was reaching... Edited June 9 by Reonito Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,613 Posted June 9 2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said: This is a bit controversial... Not sure how much of a true guess this is, as opposed to a placeholder without having to use a / Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,613 Posted June 9 4 hours ago, Asashosakari said: Kyokukaiyu (Ms5e 5-2) Ms1 Ishizaki (Ms4e 4-3) Asahakuryu (Ms8w 5-2) Ms2 Asanoyama (Ms14w 6-1) Mudoho (J14w 5-10) Ms3 Kitanowaka (Ms1e 3-4) Satorufuji (Ms7e 4-3) Ms4 Takakento (Ms12e 5-2) Nishinoryu (Ms8e 4-3) Ms5 Dewanoryu (Ms2w 3-4) promotion race looks promising Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tigerboy1966 1,539 Posted June 11 On 09/06/2025 at 22:07, Bunbukuchagama said: On 09/06/2025 at 19:47, Asashosakari said: Kotoeiho (J7w 11-4) This is a bit controversial... I'd be surprised if Kotoeiho doesn't get the nod over Nishikigi. But what do I know, I thought Kyokukaiyu would get into juryo. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,613 Posted June 11 9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said: But what do I know, I thought Kyokukaiyu would get into juryo. I mean, we all though that, though we acknowledged it wasn't a slam dunk. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dairenzu 7 Posted June 12 I can see the logic in that its historically rare for Kotoeiho's resume to get promoted to makuuchi, but it's even more rare for the five guys most people have falling to Juryo to not take the drop. I have Kotoeiho at M16w and would also be surprised if he doesn't move up. For Makushita, I initially had Wakanosho landing in the joi, but I guess wishful thinking on my part and wonder if it his placement will be irrelevant anyway. Lisfranc injuries can be quite nasty and he could easily miss several more tournaments. I think the Makushita projection here looks pretty rock solid, it should be an fascinating tournament! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Koorifuu 1,079 Posted June 18 On 09/06/2025 at 22:03, Asashosakari said: Shin-makushita for Nagoya [Videos] Fujiizumi (Sd39e 6-1) Genuinely one of the most intriguing ozumo developments of recent times. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,613 Posted June 18 2 hours ago, Koorifuu said: Genuinely one of the most intriguing ozumo developments of recent times. The two+ year absence? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Koorifuu 1,079 Posted June 18 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Reonito said: The two+ year absence? Three years away, with pretty much everyone here thinking Nishikido either couldn't bother to submit his intai papers and/or was keeping him around for some unannounced, dodgy reason... then he comes back and goes 26-9 so far, smashing his career high ranking for three basho in a row. Edited June 18 by Koorifuu 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
