Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2023

[Sumo Spiffy 582]

58 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Takarafuji is not looking so hot either. Do we know for sure Kotoeko won't try to reenter? 

Safer to assume he won't for purposes of putting together this type of chart, unless there's clear rumblings that he may come back. Given the description of his injury, how it looked in the video (yow), and the late point at which it happened, it seems like it's just not gonna be worth it. Even 4-11 puts him in a position to be demoted; even if two wins keeps him safe, that's probably a bad idea. Besides, if he doesn't do anything dumb and fully recovers, he should womp most of juryo next time.

[bettega 431]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Not quite a henka, he met the initial charge then quickly shifted. Anyway, for someone his size, wiliness is essential to have lasted 20+ years, and this has always been a part of his game.

HNH

I miss Harumafuji 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

Takarafuji is not looking so hot either. Do we know for sure Kotoeko won't try to reenter? 

Unlike Hidenoumi and Asanoyama, no hints of that. Besides, for someone who's so badly injured they have to withdraw stat, unlikely they'll heal up enough to risk coming back. Otherwise, you'd think they'd stick around to collect a win or two with a henka then withdraw. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,111]

While this is almost certainly academic to think about, I'd say that, even if they have never kept a 7-8 West Komusubi, given that there's currently no KKs in the joi, it might theoretically be possible to justify keeping Hokutofuji as Komusubi in a scenario where he wins out and there's no one even close to having a reasonable record to promote.

[Bunbukuchagama 778]

11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

While this is almost certainly academic to think about, I'd say that, even if they have never kept a 7-8 West Komusubi, given that there's currently no KKs in the joi, it might theoretically be possible to justify keeping Hokutofuji as Komusubi in a scenario where he wins out and there's no one even close to having a reasonable record to promote.

It is likely that Wakamotoharu will take a Komusubi slot.

[Gurowake 4,111]

2 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

It is likely that Wakamotoharu will take a Komusubi slot.

It's "likely" he'll finish with exactly 7 wins?  What's your definition of "likely" and how does it apply in this situation?

[Bunbukuchagama 778]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

It's "likely" he'll finish with exactly 7 wins?  What's your definition of "likely" and how does it apply in this situation?

Let's put it this way: it's more likely than Hokutofuji finishing 7-8. 

But in the very unlikely case both of them finish 7-8, Wakamoto would very likely push Hokutofuji out of Komusubi. 

[Reonito 1,533]

25 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

While this is almost certainly academic to think about, I'd say that, even if they have never kept a 7-8 West Komusubi, given that there's currently no KKs in the joi, it might theoretically be possible to justify keeping Hokutofuji as Komusubi in a scenario where he wins out and there's no one even close to having a reasonable record to promote.

At this point Takayasu and Midorifuji would probably have to lose their final 4, plus a bunch of other results to happen, for there not to be a reasonable record

[Reonito 1,533]

3 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Let's put it this way: it's more likely than Hokutofuji finishing 7-8. 

But in the very unlikely case both of them finish 7-8, Wakamoto would very likely push Hokutofuji out of Komusubi. 

Oh, certain in that case

[Gurowake 4,111]

Looking at the 3-3 matchups scheduled for Day 13, I think they're going to be doing the following:

Either all the joi makushita 3-3s will be in Juryo, or only Tochimusashi will be and they'll do Kitadaichi vs Tsushimanada

Kiryuko-Asahakuryu

Asagyokusei-Kotokuzan

Dewanoryu-Kotodaigo - Actually scheduled

Nabatame-Mineyaiba - Actually scheduled

I can't get anything else to make sense based on what was actually scheduled.

As for 5-1 matchups to try to divine Takerufuji's fate, the first one that's scheduled is ranked in Jonidan.  Ugh.  Counting, I found an odd number of 5-1s from the top to the rikishi right before the first one scheduled, and then an even number of unscheduled 5-1s before seeing at the bottom of the banzuke all the 5-1s from Fujinoteru downward being scheduled.  That heavily suggests* that Takerufuji will need to be going into Juryo as there are an odd number of unscheduled 5-1s and the place they'd most likely have a 4-2 vs 5-1 match (Jonokuchi) already has all the 5-1s scheduled, plus all the 6-0s are scheduled, so they're not going to sneak a 6-0 vs. 5-1 match on a later date, though there are two such matches Day 13. 

*There is another possibility - Kayo goes into Juryo instead.  They may be considering promoting him given they might need more candidates than there are KK joi rikishi.  Takerufuji is already going to be promoted, so testing Kayo instead makes some sense.

Thus they apparently have either 2 or 4 guys set aside for Juryo matches on Days 14 and 15, as they should, since they possibly need either number depending on whether an odd number of sekitori withdraw (or net withdraw given potential returns) Day 13.  I guess they could always deal with 4 exchanges when only needing 1 each day by having them 1+3, but there is the possibility of having only 1 each day.

 

Edited November 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 12

Makuuchi
10-2: Ō1w Kirishima, M8w Atamifuji
9-3: S2e Kotonowaka, M14w Ichiyamamoto
8-4: Ō1e Takakeishō, Ō2w Hōshōryū, S1e Daieishō, M3e Takayasu, M5w Midorifuji, M10e Ryūden, M11w Hiradoumi, M12w Tamawashi

Kirishima comes out on top of the battle of the 9-2 co-leaders, whereas Hōshōryū fails to defeat Atamifuji and hands over a huge stack of kenshō. Combined with Midorifuji and Ryūden's losses, that neatens out the arasoi much more heading into Day 13. Being 2 losses behind, and assuming both co-leaders do not drop further bouts, most of the 4-loss group will be mathematically eliminated by Day 14. 

We're back to some slightly lower-octane regular programming tomorrow with Takakeishō v Hōshōryū first. Kirishima takes on Daieishō. This leaves Atamifuji to take on Takayasu, Kotonowaka to take on Ryūden, and Ichiyamamoto to take on Midorifuji. That being said, Atamifuji will need to be tested at some point in time, and he's already been escalated to and beat Hōshōryū, so it's not clear who else the torikumi committee will see fit to put in his way on days 14 and 15. It's still entirely possible some of the regular intrasanyaku matches will be foregone to fit Atamifuji in.

Jūryō

9-3: J1w Kotoshōhō, J5e Ōnosato
8-4: J4w Mitoryū, J12w Shiden, J13w Asakōryū
7-5: J2e Bushōzan, J2w Shimazuumi, J4e Daiamami, J6e Chiyoshōma, J7w Tamashōhō, J9e Takahashi, J12e Shimanoumi, J13e Yūma

Jūryō's arasoi likewise streamlines itself. Kotoshōhō beat Tamashōhō to stay level with Ōnosato, whose match with Ōshōma was as gimme as predicted. Shiden loses to Mitoryū to fall off the pace, while Asakōryū beat Chiyoshōma.

Both co-leaders take on opponents with something to fight for tomorrow. Kotoshōhō takes on 5-7 Daishōhō, who will want to avoid MK; Ōnosato meanwhile gets Daishōhō's stablemate Daiamami, who's 7-5 and will hope for his KK tomorrow. Mitoryū takes his co-chaser Asakōryū, while Shiden will have to settle for Chiyoshōma. There are also 2 7-5 matchups: Takahashi v Yūma and Bushōzan v Tamashōhō, which means we will lose at least two more people from the arasoi tomorrow.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 12

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

X	0-0-12	Terunofuji	Y
O	8-4	Takakeishō	O	Kirishima	10-2	O
			O	Hōshōryū	8-4	O
O	8-4	Daieishō	S	Wakamotoharu	4-8	3
O	9-3	Kotonowaka	S
3	5-7	Abi	K	Hokutofuji	4-8	X
			M1	Ura	5-7	3
X	5-7	Shōdai	M2		3-9
1	8-4	Takayasu	M3	Tobizaru	5-7	X
			M4	Nishikigi	6-6	X
			M5	Midorifuji	8-4	2
			M6
			M7
			M8	Atamifuji	10-2	2

 

Demotion queue: Hokutofuji, Abi, Wakamotoharu
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Atamifuji, Midorifuji, Ura

Takakeishō and Daieishō hit their KKs today, restricting any damage to the sanyaku to Hokutofuji, Wakamotoharu, and Abi. Hokutofuji is practically toast, whereas Wakamotoharu and Abi must win out to retain their ranks. Of the challengers, Takayasu and Atamifuji look in the best shape to take over any available sanyaku slots; given his sumo so far, it's unlikely that Wakamotoharu will jam up komusubi by taking over Hokutofuji's vacated slot. 

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

			M10	Kotoekō	2-8-2	X
			...
2	4-8	Takarafuji	M13
			M14
3	4-8	Tōhakuryū	M15
X	3-9	Rōga	M16	Nishikifuji	4-8	~
X	4-8	Kitanowaka	M17
2	6-6	Aoiyama	J1	Kotoshōhō	9-3	O
2	7-5	Bushōzan	J2	Shimazuumi	7-5	2
			J3
3	7-5	Daiamami	J4	Mitoryū	8-4	2
1	9-3	Ōnosato	J5		4-8
X	7-5	Chiyoshōma	J6		0-0-12
			J7	Tamashōhō	7-5	X

 

Demotion queue: Kotoekō, Kitanowaka, Nishikifuji, Rōga, Tōhakuryū
Promotion queue: Kotoshōhō, Ōnosato, Aoiyama, Bushōzan

Not a very good shinnyūmaku crop we have here. Rōga and Kitanowaka are now demotable and Tōhakuryū needs to win out. Nishikifuji is also in trouble, although with 2 sure demotions from makuuchi and not that much promotion pressure from jūryō yet, he may be able to stay if he wins out. 

Said promotion pressure currently consists of Kotoshōhō, who has done enough, and Ōnosato, who needs 1 more win to be promotable by the numbers. Shimazuumi failed to drag down Tōhakuryū today, so that particular exchange is unlikely for now; tomorrow's jūryō visitor is an already MK Ōshōma, so exchange considerations don't apply.

Jūryō <-> makushita

			J6	Hakuōhō	0-0-12	X
			J7
2	3-5-4	Chiyomaru	J8
			J9	Takakentō	2-10	3
1	5-7	Akua	J10	Tenshōhō	3-9	3
X	2-10	Hitoshi	J11
			J12
			J13
3	5-7	Chiyosakae	J14	Azumaryū	0-2-10	X
O	4-2	Hakuyōzan	Ms1	Takerufuji	5-1	O
			Ms2	Ōshōumi	4-3	O
1	3-3	Tochimusashi	Ms3	Kitadaichi	3-3	1
			Ms4	Tsushimanada	3-3	1

Demotion queue: Hakuōhō, Azumaryū, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō
Promotion queue: Hakuyōzan, Takerufuji, Ōshōumi, Kitaharima

No real changes today other than Ōshōumi notching his KK against Chiyosakae. Chiyosakae still has one day to go, but Ōshōumi makes a good case for being the third promotee if Kitaharima fails to zenshō. 

There's still hope for the 3-3 crowd, since as many as 3 more slots may open in jūryō tomorrow with losses by Chiyosakae, Takakentō and Tenshōhō. Gurowake has a much better rundown above on how the 3-3 matchups will shake out, but exchange considerations are again on hold as Hakuyōzan goes up against Tenshōhō. Tenshōhō can ill afford to lose, but arguably Hakuyōzan has already done enough for promotion, so I'm not sure this is a true exchange bout.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 3,917]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

arguably Hakuyōzan has already done enough for promotion,

If I read the db aright, the case of an Ms1e missing Juryo promotion is 3/121, with the last occurrence in 1966.  So ...

[WAKATAKE 2,677]

12 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

If I read the db aright, the case of an Ms1e missing Juryo promotion is 3/121, with the last occurrence in 1966.  So ...

Denial of promotion from J1E with an 8-7 seems to have happened slightly more than Ms1E or M1E to sanyaku. But even though there is a sizeable number in M1E, the most recent case was 1969. J1E 8-7 failing to promote happened as recently as 1998.

[Yamanashi 3,917]

15 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Denial of promotion from J1E with an 8-7 seems to have happened slightly more than Ms1E or M1E to sanyaku. But even though there is a sizeable number in M1E, the most recent case was 1969. J1E 8-7 failing to promote happened as recently as 1998.

All of these cases suggest that the precedent is historical rather than relevant.  However, since the banzuke is based on an "unwritten constitution", anything can happen.

[Reonito 1,533]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Either all the joi makushita 3-3s will be in Juryo, or only Tochimusashi will be and they'll do Kitadaichi vs Tsushimanada

Why did they send Hakuyozan up instead of Tochimusashi? No other reasonable opponent for him, or to keep the 3-3s in reserve? It's not like his promotion is in question...

[Kamitsuumi 402]

1 hour ago, WAKATAKE said:

Denial of promotion from J1E with an 8-7 seems to have happened slightly more than Ms1E or M1E to sanyaku. But even though there is a sizeable number in M1E, the most recent case was 1969. J1E 8-7 failing to promote happened as recently as 1998.

Makushita to Juryo is a big difference in prestige, salary, etc., while for Maegashira to Sanyaku there is more room for discretion for the committee to create an extra slot. As a result, J1e's getting the short end of the stick wouldn't surprise me.

[Yamanashi 3,917]

11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Why did they send Hakuyozan up instead of Tochimusashi? No other reasonable opponent for him, or to keep the 3-3s in reserve? It's not like his promotion is in question...

Odd from Tenshoho's side, too: he's at J10e, but he hasn't faced J9e Takahashi or J11w Hidenoumi (though maybe they're saving them for Days 14-15).  The answer, I suspect, is the one I have been instructed about often: the schedulers don't look at any of this stuff.

[Gurowake 4,111]

There's not a shortage of spots in Juryo to even think too much about whether Hakuyozan will be promoted.  It's not like there are tons of people who might get the spot ahead of him along with a dearth of Juryo spots.  The opposite in both cases.

Edited November 23, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,533]

49 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

There's not a shortage of spots in Juryo to even think too much about whether Hakuyozan will be promoted.  It's not like there are tons of people who might get the spot ahead of him along with a dearth of Juryo spots.  The opposite in both cases.

There's definitely room for him, Takerufuji, and either Kitaharima with a win or Oshoumi, but no more than that yet depending on how tomorrow's matchups go (as far as I can tell, they can all work out in a way that no one beyond Hitoshi and the absentees is demotable, although of course they still have days 14 and 15 to work this out).

[I am the Yokozuna 194]

No chances for Wakatakakage to come back to Juryo? 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Very unlikely with a 5-2 at best. A 6-1 might have had more chance, but I don't quite think enough slots are opening in jūryō for that. I'll have the usual up in a few hours, and will take a closer look then. 

[I am the Yokozuna 194]

There are some cases indeed for 5-2 at Ms6 rank promotions to Juryo

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&amp;form1_rank=MS6&amp;form1_wins=5&amp;form1_losses=2&amp;form2_rank=J

I see there are six possible demotable records (Azumaryu, Hakuoho, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshoho, Chiyomaru) and Wakatakage could come at worst as the seventh promotable candidate if all win out their remaining matches (Hakuyozan, Takerufuji, Oshoumi, Tochimusashi, Kitadaichi, Tsushimanada and then Wakatakakage)

Anyhow, he is too strong for Makushita and it would be a great disservice to all his opponents to leave them linger their for one more basho.  

 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

30 minutes ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

I see there are six possible demotable records (Azumaryu, Hakuoho, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshoho, Chiyomaru) 

Only the first three are demotable. The last three just staved off demotion today, and may yet save themselves if they win out. (Also Takakentō should be ahead of Chiyomaru - Chiyomaru still has a margin of 1 bout.)

I'd say the cases you found are relatively exceptional, especially Kyūshū 2003 (that involved an expansion of the sekitori ranks).

Edited November 24, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Asashosakari 19,726]

Feels somewhat inappropriate to talk about Wakatakakage's case at all when he's not even the rikishi with the best case outside the top 5 ranks at this time...