Tsuchinoninjin 1,291 Posted October 24, 2023 50 minutes ago, Akinomaki said: I went for that as well because I want to see Asanoyama there, fully aware that I certainly will be wrong - only the BBM guess had it, and they usually are very far off. I want to see him there too, mostly because I made a bet of an entire pizza on Asanoyama returning to ozeki before takayasu. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 998 Posted October 24, 2023 47 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said: I want to see him there too, mostly because I made a bet of an entire pizza on Asanoyama returning to ozeki before takayasu. Who buys the pizza if neither of them makes it? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 998 Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Reonito said: The db is down at the moment, but there's a very recent example (after January) in which Tamawashi wasn't promoted under nearly identical circumstances. He went from M2w to M1e with a 9-6 record. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,164 Posted October 24, 2023 Terunofuji(0-0 Ye) Y Takakeisho(11-4 Ow) O Kirishima(9-6 Oe) O Hoshoryu(8-7 Ow) Daieisho(10-5 Se) S Wakamotoharu(9-6 Sw) Kotonowaka(9-6 Se) S Abi(9-6 M2e) K Hokutofuji(8-7 M1e) Asanoyama(9-6 M2w) M1 Ura(9-6 M4w) Shodai(8-7 M3e) M2 Meisei(7-8 M1w) Gonoyama(9-6 M5e) M3 Tobizaru(6-9 Kw) Takayasu(10-5 M7e) M4 Onosho(9-6 M6e) Nishikigi(5-10 Ke) M5 Midorifuji(10-5 M9e) Hokuseiho(10-5 M11w) M6 Shonannoumi(7-8 M5w) Takanosho(6-9 M4e) M7 Kinbozan(9-6 M10e) Endo(9-6 M10w) M8 Atamifuji(11-4 M15e) Mitakeumi(9-6 M11e) M9 Myogiryu(10-5 M13e) Ryuden(6-9 M6w) M10 Kotoeko(6-9 M8e) Sadanoumi(8-7 M12w) M11 Hiradoumi(6-9 M8w) Oho(5-10 M7w) M12 Tamawashi(2-13 M3w) Takarafuji(7-8 M12e) M13 Tomokaze(11-4 J3e) Ichiyamamoto(13-2 J7w) M14 Tsurugisho(8-7 M16w) Tohakuryu(10-5 J4w) M15 Roga(8-7 J1e) Churanoumi(10-5 J5e) M16 Kitanowaka(8-7 J2e) Nishikifuji(5-10 M13w) M17 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 998 Posted October 24, 2023 Am I the only one to put Churanoumi over Roga? My research shows that they usually prioritize record over rank in similar situations... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said: Am I the only one to put Churanoumi over Roga? My research shows that they usually prioritize record over rank in similar situations... I did, too. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Gurowake said: Churanoumi(10-5 J5e) M16 Kitanowaka(8-7 J2e) Nishikifuji(5-10 M13w) M17 If I get zero points despite promoting Kitanowaka because they put him ahead of Nishikifuji I'm going to Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rocks 1,810 Posted October 25, 2023 I made Asanoyama a Komusubi too. It could go either way. I just figured they expect him to be in Sanyaku anyway so why wait? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 998 Posted October 25, 2023 52 minutes ago, Rocks said: I made Asanoyama a Komusubi too. It could go either way. I just figured they expect him to be in Sanyaku anyway so why wait? Yokozuna or bust! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gurowake 4,164 Posted October 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Reonito said: If I get zero points despite promoting Kitanowaka because they put him ahead of Nishikifuji I'm going to I admit when I looked at that afterwards that it seems somewhat strange. I didn't really think about the fact that NIshikifuji should probably be ahead of him even if I felt it was possible for him to be demoted and that Kitanowaka was assured of promotion. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yarimotsu 645 Posted October 25, 2023 3 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said: Am I the only one to put Churanoumi over Roga? My research shows that they usually prioritize record over rank in similar situations... That's funny, my research indicated Roga definitely falls behind Tohakuryu but probably beats out Churanoumi. Full guess (probably with obvious mistakes, if anyone sees one let me know - I did the old "put demotees on the west where possible" tiebreaker a lot) Terunofuji Y1e Takakeisho O1e Kirishima O1w Hoshoryu O2w Daieisho S1e Wakamotoharu S1w Kotonowaka S2e Abi K1e Hokutofuji K1w Asanoyama M1e Ura M1w Takayasu M2e Meisei M2w Shodai M3e Tobizaru M3w Gonoyama M4e Onosho M4w Nishikigi M5e Midorifuji M5w Hokuseiho M6e Shonannoumi M6w Kinbozan M7e Takanosho M7w Endo M8e Atamifuji M8w Myogiryu M9e Ryuden M9w Mitakeumi M10e Kotoeko M10w Sadanoumi M11e Hiradoumi M11w Oho M12e Tamawashi M12w Takarafuji M13e Tsurugisho M13w Tomokaze M14e Ichiyamamoto M14w Tohakuryu M15e Roga M15w Churanoumi M16e Nishikifuji M16w Kitanowaka M17e Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 25, 2023 42 minutes ago, Yarimotsu said: Full guess (probably with obvious mistakes, if anyone sees one let me know - I did the old "put demotees on the west where possible" tiebreaker a lot) It would be very surprising if they didn't promote Shodai after an 8-7, given that they're not absolutely forced not to. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 998 Posted October 25, 2023 54 minutes ago, Reonito said: It would be very surprising if they didn't promote Shodai after an 8-7, given that they're not absolutely forced not to. Yes, M2e seems to be the consensus spot for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,332 Posted October 25, 2023 Terunofuji (Ye 0-0-15) Y --- Takakeisho (o1w 11-4 Y) O1 Kirishima (O1e 9-6) --- O2 Hoshoryu (O2w 8-7) Daieisho (S1e 10-5) S1 Wakamotoharu (S1w 9-6) Kotonowaka (S2e 9-6) S2 --- Abi (M2e 9-6) K Hokutofuji (M1e 8-7) Asanoyama (M2w 9-6) M1 Ura (M4w 9-6) Shodai (M3e 8-7) M2 Meisei (M1w 7-8) Gonoyama (M5e 9-6) M3 Tobizaru (Kw 6-9) Takayasu (M7e 10-5) M4 Onosho (M6e 9-6) Nishikigi (Ke 5-10) M5 Midorifuji (M9e 10-5) Shonannoumi (M5w 7-8) M6 Takanosho (M4e 6-9) Hokuseiho (M11w 10-5) M7 Kinbozan (M10e 9-6) Endo (M10w 9-6) M8 Mitakeumi (M11e 9-6) Atamifuji (M15e 11-4 D) M9 Myogiryu (M13e 10-5) Ryuden (M6w 6-9) M10 Kotoeko (M8e 6-9) Hiradoumi (M8w 6-9) M11 Sadanoumi (M12w 8-7) Oho (M7w 5-10) M12 Tamawashi (M3w 2-13) Takarafuji (M12e 7-8) M13 Tsurugisho (M16w 8-7) Tomokaze (J3e 11-4) M14 Ichiyamamoto (J7w 13-2 Y) Tohakuryu (J4w 10-5) M15 Churanoumi (J5e 10-5) Roga (J1e 8-7) M16 Nishikifuji (M13w 5-10) Aoiyama (M14e 5-10) M17 --- Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 25, 2023 Any early guesses for placements that we all agree on but where the banzuke committee does something wacky instead? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 20,332 Posted October 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Reonito said: Any early guesses for placements that we all agree on but where the banzuke committee does something wacky instead? Probably Tobizaru/Nishikigi. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, Asashosakari said: Probably Tobizaru/Nishikigi. There's definitely a range of something like 2w-3w for the former and 4e-5w for the latter; hard to see where else they'd put Nishikigi, but Tobizaru could end up higher or lower. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 998 Posted October 25, 2023 52 minutes ago, Asashosakari said: Probably Tobizaru/Nishikigi. There is absolutely no agreement on M2-M4. It's all over the place. 1 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Oshirokita 199 Posted October 26, 2023 On 24/10/2023 at 13:02, Reonito said: The db is down at the moment, but there's a very recent example (after January) in which Tamawashi wasn't promoted under nearly identical circumstances. The difference for me is that this time Abi and Asanoyama both have the same rank and same record, so if one is promoted it is easier to justify promoting both. The previous Tamawashi situation had Tamawashi in the Asanoyama position, but his rank buddy had an MK. Not a sure bet by any means but I thought the difference was significant enough to be a factor in my guess. We'll all know in a few days. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsuchinoninjin 1,291 Posted October 26, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Oshirokita said: same rank and same record, so if one is promoted it is easier to justify promoting both. But they don't have the same rank, Asanoyama is ranked below Abi. Here's one from M3, Kotonishiki went to M1e. Here's one from M1, Tamawashi (again) went to M1e. Edited October 26, 2023 by Tsuchinoninjin 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 26, 2023 The bottom line is they just don't create extra san'yaku slots these days unless their hand is forced, and 9-6 from M2 is not forcing. All recent promotions to K2 were either KK from M1e or double-digit wins from M1/M2, with the exception of the crazy Hatsu 2023 banzuke with the extreme logjam at the top. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tsuchinoninjin 1,291 Posted October 26, 2023 No they won’t create an extra slot, the only way it happens is if hokutofuji stays put, which is a nonzero chance but still unlikely imo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kintamayama 47,440 Posted October 26, 2023 I put Aoiyama and Kotoshouhou both at 16. My logic? Both with the same record at the same rank, why demote one and not the other? Or why not demote both? I went with leaving them both in at 16 E and W respectively. No Churanoumi, just Rouga (!!) at M17.. As for a third Komusubi? No way. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reonito 1,815 Posted October 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Tsuchinoninjin said: No they won’t create an extra slot, the only way it happens is if hokutofuji stays put, which is a nonzero chance but still unlikely imo There are two open komusubi slots, no need for an extra one... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
