Tigerboy1966 1,476 Posted July 20, 2023 7 hours ago, robnplunder said: If they don't make it with Terunofuji, Takakeissho out, and Kirishima returning from a kyujo stint, they are not ready to be an Ozeki yet. An injured yokozuna or a knackered ozeki is less of a challenge than a raging Hokutofuji. I don't think the absence of the top men will make a difference to the decision. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yamanashi 3,917 Posted July 20, 2023 16 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said: a raging Hokutofuji Dang it, I didn't have that phrase on my Bingo card this basho. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RabidJohn 1,859 Posted July 20, 2023 10 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said: An injured yokozuna or a knackered ozeki is less of a challenge than a raging Hokutofuji. Or a methodical Nishikigi (a perfectly understandable oversight ). He's been a proper damage dealer to aspirations this time. Seems no one believes Hoshoryu can win out from here... I believe the decision making of the promotion committee will be strongly coloured by whether or not Kirishima can KK. If he does, there's no reason to make any lenient promotions. If he doesn't... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 778 Posted July 20, 2023 7 hours ago, Seiyashi said: Sumo wise, they're ticking most of the right boxes at the moment. This is subjective. If you don't produce results required for promotion, what makes you ozeki-worthy? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 778 Posted July 20, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, RabidJohn said: I believe the decision making of the promotion committee will be strongly coloured by whether or not Kirishima can KK. If he does, there's no reason to make any lenient promotions. If he doesn't... Would they have a reason to believe he will not get a KK next time? If he almost did it while injured... Such considerations seem to be too fleeting and situational to base such important decisions on them. Edited July 20, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seiyashi 4,109 Posted July 20, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said: Would they have a reason to believe he will not get a KK next time? If he almost did it while injured... Such considerations seem to be too fleeting and situational to base such important decisions on them. And yet they denied Takakeishō a promotion based on how bad he looked in losing to Gōeidō. 13 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said: This is subjective. If you don't produce results required for promotion, what makes you ozeki-worthy? The manner of the bout. We've been through it before, and I'm not going to rehash the whole objective/subjective thing again, but I'm just going to point out that Asanoyama losing to Kakuryū by shitatenage and faceplant to go 32/3 looked better than Takakeishō losing to Gōeidō despite 33/3. So quality of sumo does count for something; how much next to the result? No one knows. Did Asanoyama benefit from there only being one ōzeki at the time? No one knows either. Well, the NSK does, but we don't. FWIW I think if any of the sekiwake make it to a playoff wth 32, they have a decent chance of getting the nod as long as they don't do something stupid like henka twice on senshūraku. In any case, they're doing well enough that even if they don't get promoted this time, the ōzeki run is still well and alive for Aki. So no real worry. It's not like every time Takakeishō wins a basho as ōzeki and then proceeds to instantly dumpster his chances of yokozuna. Edited July 20, 2023 by Seiyashi Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 778 Posted July 20, 2023 3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said: In any case, they're doing well enough that even if they don't get promoted this time, the ōzeki run is still well and alive for Aki. So no real worry. It's not like every time Takakeishō wins a basho as ōzeki and then proceeds to instantly dumpster his chances of yokozuna. Yes, we might get a "Triple Ozeki Promotion: Part Deux" in Aki. Would a run reset if somebody drops below 10 wins? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seiyashi 4,109 Posted July 20, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said: Yes, we might get a "Triple Ozeki Promotion: Part Deux" in Aki. Would a run reset if somebody drops below 10 wins? I don't think there's an automatic rule but the other two basho better be damn good if one of them is a 9. Going backwards from the last few ōzeki promotions: Mitakeumi went 9-6, 11-4, 13-2 Y Shōdai went 8-7, 11-4, 13-2 Y Terunofuji (1st time) went 8-7, 13-2 J, 12-3 Y Gōeidō went 12-3 J 8-7, 12-3 J Barutō went 9-6, 12-3 J, 14-1 J Get this: Hakuhō himself went 9-6, 13-2 J, 13-2 D. He then went on to win 14-1 Y from O3w. How do our wannabes compare? Daieishō: 12-3 D, 10-5, ??? If he goes 9-6 then he might be in some trouble since I don't think he can pull off a 14-1 Y, and 10+9 is actually quite a rare permutation in ōzeki runs. The minimum I can see is 10+10 (Kakuryū) or 8+11. Hōshōryū: 10-5, 11-4, ??? Being already at 9-3 I don't think it's a problem for him to get one more win to go 10, then he can pull an Asanoyama with 10-11-10-11. He has had 9 consecutive basho in sanyaku all with KKs, and while his komusubi basho were 8-7s and 9-6s, he has gone double digit in 4 out of 6 sekiwake basho. I think he is the only one for whom promotion really is inevitable, based on the trend of his results. Wakamotoharu: 11-4, 10-5, ??? He also has an 8-4 and is in actually a worse boat than Daieishō, with one win less and no yūshō honour. For him I don't think it's a shame to write this one off and try again, even if from scratch. He just needs a similar step change like Kirishima did to hit the next level. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 778 Posted July 20, 2023 14 minutes ago, Seiyashi said: then he can pull an Asanoyama with 10-11-10-11 Was it ever (semi)-officially confirmed that Asanoyama was promoted based on 4 basho results rather than 3? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akinomaki 40,866 Posted July 20, 2023 41 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said: Yes, we might get a "Triple Ozeki Promotion: Part Deux" in Aki. Would a run reset if somebody drops below 10 wins? Not the run but the official run like this basho, announced by the top shimpan Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lackmaker 439 Posted July 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said: This is subjective. If you don't produce results required for promotion, what makes you ozeki-worthy? The sumo quality is indeed subjective. But the results required aren't set in stone so ozeki-worthy is subjective too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kishinoyama 596 Posted July 20, 2023 Well, with three days to go, I am surprised that the Ozeki hopefuls are struggling. I was really hoping for all three of them to become Ozeki at the same time. That would have been some history making stuff. I think one of them will get promoted but Wakamotoharu won't be 'the one'. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robnplunder 976 Posted July 21, 2023 7 hours ago, Kishinoyama said: I think one of them will get promoted but Wakamotoharu won't be 'the one'. Even 1 is not a sure thing now. Wakamotoharu won't be promoted even if he wins the remaining matches. Daieisho has to beat Wakamotoharu, Onosho, and Hoshoryu. Daieisho's win-loss record against those 3 is at about 50%. Hoshoryu has to beat Kirishima, Wakamotoharu, and Daieisho. Hoshoryu has an 18-13 win-loss record against the 3 combined. Statistically, he has a better chance than Daieisho to finish the basho with 3 straight wins. Both can still get promoted if they lose one and get a piece of jun-yusho. But only Hoshoryu has a realistic chance at getting a piece of jun-yusho (or better). Assuming Hoshoryu & Daieisho win their other matches, if Daieisho beats Hoshoryu, both end up with 32 wins and could get a piece of jun-yusho. Will the powers-to-be promote them both if this happens? Maybe. If Hoshoryu beats Daieisho and gets a piece of jun-yusho (11-4), he has a chance to get promoted. If 11-4 is not good enough for a jun-yusho, Hoshoryu may be out of luck. Then again, there were instances when 32 wins were good enough for the Ozeki promotion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Akinomaki 40,866 Posted July 21, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, robnplunder said: Wakamotoharu won't be promoted even if he wins the remaining matches. He could well be, and the 11-4 playoff possibility still remains; he would definitely be promoted with a yusho Tomorrow he has to win against Hoshoryu, Hakuoho against Hokutofuji and Ryuden against Nishikigi, on day 15 Nishikigi has to win against Hokutofuji and Hakuoho has to lose. Edited July 21, 2023 by Akinomaki Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seiyashi 4,109 Posted July 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Akinomaki said: Hakuoho has to lose. I want the overturning of a 109-year-old precedent more than I want an immediate promotion for Wakamotoharu. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robnplunder 976 Posted July 21, 2023 Realistically, only Hoshoryu still has a chance to get promoted. Daieisho's loss was painful to watch. He needs to regroup and finish with 2 wins if he wants to continue his Ozeki run in the next basho. Ditto for Wakamotoharu. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seiyashi 4,109 Posted July 21, 2023 (edited) 33 minutes ago, robnplunder said: Realistically, only Hoshoryu still has a chance to get promoted. Daieisho's loss was painful to watch. He needs to regroup and finish with 2 wins if he wants to continue his Ozeki run in the next basho. Ditto for Wakamotoharu. Wakamotoharu IMO has the luxury of needing only one more win, since 11-10-10 is still a great look. At least it shows consistency in the joi, and it'll make it easier to argue for a slightly lenient promotion for him down the road. Daieishō really needs that 10 though, yea. If he's held to 8 or 9, then he's just going to get written off as "the usual Daieishō 3rd basho fade" and he'll likely have to start from scratch unless he does something crazy next basho. Edited July 21, 2023 by Seiyashi Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RabidJohn 1,859 Posted July 21, 2023 7 hours ago, Seiyashi said: Wakamotoharu IMO has the luxury of needing only one more win, since 11-10-10 is still a great look. At least it shows consistency in the joi, and it'll make it easier to argue for a slightly lenient promotion for him down the road. Daieishō really needs that 10 though, yea. If he's held to 8 or 9, then he's just going to get written off as "the usual Daieishō 3rd basho fade" and he'll likely have to start from scratch unless he does something crazy next basho. Agreed. Wakamotoharu has only half a year in sanyaku, whereas this ain't Daieisho's first rodeo. By the same kind of token, Hoshoryu has served his time as a sekiwake well. Even though he's not my favourite, I'd be happy to see him make it - properly, by winning out and taking the yusho. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robnplunder 976 Posted July 22, 2023 14 hours ago, Seiyashi said: Wakamotoharu IMO has the luxury of needing only one more win, since 11-10-10 is still a great look. At least it shows consistency in the joi, and it'll make it easier to argue for a slightly lenient promotion for him down the road. I don't think 31 will be enough no matter how they are accumulated. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seiyashi 4,109 Posted July 22, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, robnplunder said: I don't think 31 will be enough no matter how they are accumulated. To be clear I didn't mean he'd be promoted with 31, but if for instance he goes 11 10 10 12 or 11 10 10 11 11 it would be easier to justify a soft promotion on 32. Edited July 22, 2023 by Seiyashi Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robnplunder 976 Posted July 22, 2023 15 minutes ago, Seiyashi said: To be clear I didn't mean he'd be promoted with 31, but if for instance he goes 11 10 10 12 or 11 10 10 11 11 it would be easier to justify a soft promotion on 32. Yeah, it makes sense. Let's hope he finishes strong. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 778 Posted July 22, 2023 (edited) Wrong thread. Edited July 22, 2023 by Bunbukuchagama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robnplunder 976 Posted July 22, 2023 (edited) With the win over Wakamotoharu, Hoshoryu secures a jun-yusho, thanks to Hakuoho. Even if he loses tomorrow, I believe he gets the promotion. Winning tomorrow will be the icing on the cake though. Edited July 22, 2023 by robnplunder Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bunbukuchagama 778 Posted July 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, robnplunder said: Hoshoryu secures a jun-yusho No. Both Hokutofuji and Hakuoho can still end up with 12 wins ahead of him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
