Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2022

[rhyen 1,846]

12 minutes ago, Katooshu said:

Is a 10-5 J5 convincing over a 3-12 M8, or something that could feasibly go either way?

Isegahama is chief shimpan.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Qucik update for the sanyaku/joi situation.

Mitakeumi at 6-9 will not have met the 7-8 needed to cushion his fall to komusubi. He, along with Tamawashi, Tobizaru, and Daieishō will likely take their leave from the sanyaku.

Sekiwake next basho will be Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, and Shōdai, at least. The question is whether Takayasu goes to sekiwake as well and Kotonowaka is K1w alongside Kiribayama, or whether Takayasu is komusubi only.

In the former case, we will have a joi of Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, Tobizaru, Daieishō, Meisei, Midorifuji, Wakamotoharu, Sadanoumi, Abi, Nishikifuji, Nishiki, and Ryūden in some order. That's M1 to M6 and bear in mind all 8 maegashira in the above list are KK and should at least move up. In the latter case, we add Kotonowaka to the logjam, and with pretty serious underpromotions/overdemotions for some of Wakamotoharu, Tobizaru, Daieishō, Abi, and Mitakeumi. As it is the 8-7 trio of Midorifuji, Sadanoumi, and Nishikigi may be left in place to make things easier, if not very minimally moved up a half rank.

Based purely on space considerations, I think it's quite likely Takayasu gets a boost to sekiwake, and increasing their odds of hitting an ōzeki promotion within the next few basho doesn't hurt either. But this is without actually sitting down and sorting the joi members out, just a quick impressionistic take.

[Tigerboy1966 1,475]

Promoting Takayasu to S and Kotonowaka to K makes things very slightly easier. But you still have the problem of the demoted sanyaku taking up a block of slots which should be going to the mid-to upper maegashira with winning records.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 minute ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Promoting Takayasu to S and Kotonowaka to K makes things very slightly easier. But you still have the problem of the demoted sanyaku taking up a block of slots which should be going to the mid-to upper maegashira with winning records.

Completely unscientifically, it feels that if there's a banzuke where the shimpan can indulge in a little vindictiveness, they'd drop Mitakeumi hard and put Takayasu at S.

[Gurowake 4,109]

After looking at the various possibilities for the number of sanyaku and how the maegashira shake out with each of them, I think my suggestion of promoting everyone to Komusubi who was in the joi and has the numbers for promotion is probably the best way to go.  That doesn't mean that I think they'll actually do that, since it would cost them more money, but I think that's what's the in the best interests of everyone involved.  The way the maegashira end up just looks so much nicer if they maintain the same number of sanyaku.  Whether that means putting Takayasu up to Sekiwake or going with 5 Komusubi, I'm not really sure.  While it looks nicer in the format that's usually used to view the banzuke to have 4 Sekiwake and 4 Komusubi, it's not like that really matters on the actual banzuke.

Whatever happens, I should think that GTB will be an extremely low-scoring affair with correctly guessing the number of sanyaku likely to be the largest factor in a player's score.  There are reasonable arguments for any number between 7 and 10.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

That doesn't mean that I think they'll actually do that, since it would cost them more money, but I think that's what's the in the best interests of everyone involved.

In other words, the "sumo fans make more logical banzuke than the shimpan" phenomenon at work again?

[Gurowake 4,109]

As to Takarafuji, he may have saved himself, but I wouldn't be able to say at whose expense.  Chiyomaru and Mitoryu are even by the numbers and are a half-rank behind Akua, but Akua is ranked lower to start which might work against him.  I think the cleaner solution in terms of being consistent with the numbers would be to demote him, regardless of how far down the maegashira go.  Again, I don't necessarily think they'll actually do that, and they'll quite possibly instead pick one of them to not get promoted.  All of them have Makuuchi experience, so that's not a factor.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,108]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

As to Takarafuji, he may have saved himself, but I wouldn't be able to say at whose expense.  Chiyomaru and Mitoryu are even by the numbers and are a half-rank behind Akua, but Akua is ranked lower to start which might work against him.  I think the cleaner solution in terms of being consistent with the numbers would be to demote him, regardless of how far down the maegashira go.  Again, I don't necessarily think they'll actually do that, and they'll quite possibly instead pick one of them to not get promoted.  All of them have Makuuchi experience, so that's not a factor.

If I were to pick an "illogical" choice I'd say Chiyomaru, since 8-7 going to J1e is neither uncommon nor unexpected. Do you think there's anything in Isegahama cushioning his deshi's drops whether intentionally or unintentionally, given Terutsuyoshi's soft demotion last time out, which would leave someone hard up?

Edited November 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,109]

18 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Do you think there's anything in Isegahama cushioning his deshi's drops whether intentionally or unintentionally, given Terutsuyoshi's soft demotion last time out, which would leave someone hard up?

I really hope this isn't the case, and I refuse to consider it a possibility.  If you think it means that Takarafuji is more likely to survive, go ahead.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I really hope this isn't the case, and I refuse to consider it a possibility.  If you think it means that Takarafuji is more likely to survive, go ahead.

I personally would like not to believe it either, but I've seen occasional intimations (from people not otherwise inclined to be conspiracy theorists) that he might have a bit of a favouritist bent. My GTB entry will probably send Takarafuji down but then you all know how I tend to rank in GTB so... 

[Reonito 1,531]

What are we thinking for the next makushita joi? In no particular order, we have Tamashoho, Tokushoryu, Shiden, Hakuyozan, Ishizaki, Tomokaze, Kamito, Chiyonoo, Tochikamiyama. That's nine. The last spot probably comes down to one of Tsukahara, Kawazoe, or Dewanoryu? I'd like to see Kawazoe get it.

[Sumo Spiffy 582]

Too many people to quote, so: If having Isegahama in charge impacts the banzuke, I think it can often be to the apparent detriment of his fighters.

To put it another way, if his thumb is on the scale, the way these things play out, I think it's as likely that he lets his guys take the wrong end of situations as he is to press for his guys to be favored in others. Last basho, for example, Terutsuyoshi's under-demotion was really a case of numbers; it would have been more arbitrary to push Tohakuryu up and move him down than it was to just give Teru the one rank drop. Midorifuji, on the other hand, received a very rare two-rank drop with a 7-8 record. Guro mentioned that there's a rank of padding for sanyaku wrestlers being demoted back to maegashira, but even then, arguing for Midori to be at M2 and Ichi at M3 would have been plausible given banzuke history, and that didn't happen.

Bringing this back around to Takarafuji: Chiyo's gone, Teru and Atami are being demoted. Tsurugisho, Chiyomaru, Mitoryu, and Akua all mathematically pushed themselves into makuuchi, if only just for the last three. In theory, because Takara's math puts him at J1E, he should be demoted. But that's not in line with how makuuchi wrestlers with really trash records tend to be treated, both in terms of the size of their drop (under-demotions being much more common) and being pushed below juryo rikishi who don't clearly surpass them. So, either Mitoryu or Chiyomaru are probably taking it in the sash this time.

This would have been easier to figure out if Hokuseiho had just won his last fight. Then it's both Chiyo and Mitoryu.

Edited November 27, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy

[Reonito 1,531]

16 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Hokuseihō and Bushōzan lose out but will be binbo-gami next basho, by the looks of it. 

I am not familiar with that term, but if you mean J1, I think they'll be behind Takarafuji or whoever is snubbed to save him.

[Katooshu 3,335]

So Yutakayama......

[Reonito 1,531]

1 minute ago, Katooshu said:

So Yutakayama......

What about him?

[Katooshu 3,335]

Just now, Reonito said:

What about him?

Intai

[WAKATAKE 2,677]

Tsushimanada is going to REALLY thankful for Yutakayama deciding to retire

[Reonito 1,531]

Wow, just saw the other thread ... haven't thought this through, but presumably Hakuyozan's lucky day ... and makes it more likely that Kawazoe makes it into the Makushita top 10 promotion zone.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,531]

6 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Tsushimanada is going to REALLY thankful for Yutakayama deciding to retire

I think he was okay anyway after winning what was presumably an exchange bout.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I think he was okay anyway after winning what was presumably an exchange bout.

If anything it's Kaishō who ought to be thankful, since there's absolutely no need to remove him in favor of Hakuyōzan now. It's not like exchange bouts are a 100% predictor of promotion and demotion anyway. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,109]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If anything it's Kaishō who ought to be thankful, since there's absolutely no need to remove him in favor of Hakuyōzan now. It's not like exchange bouts are a 100% predictor of promotion and demotion anyway. 

Yup, previously I would have said there was still some chance that Hakuyozan would force Kaisho down, despite the former losing the exchange bout, but now that it's not necessary for Kaisho to be demoted to make room for Hakuoyzan, the latter should clearly be on his way back up.  I still think it's Hakuyozan himself that should be more thankful, but we'll probably never know.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

16 hours ago, Reonito said:

I am not familiar with that term, but if you mean J1, I think they'll be behind Takarafuji or whoever is snubbed to save him.

http://www.sumoforum.net/glossary.html#B Yeah, that's what I meant.

Good point, forgot about that slot. Bushōzan will probably be just slid over.

[Reonito 1,531]

15 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

http://www.sumoforum.net/glossary.html#B Yeah, that's what I meant.

Good point, forgot about that slot. Bushōzan will probably be just slid over.

Ah, I found the "god of poverty" translation but couldn't connect it to sumo.

[Wakawakawaka 162]

Just for kicks, utilizing the tachiai.org 'Rank changes through the years' dashboard... To avoid unprecedented (1970-2021 timeframe) under-promotions and over-demotions will require 10 lower sanyaku.

Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu, Shodai, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Meisei, Wakamotoharu, Abi, Midorifuji

This is going to be a very fun GTB

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Wakawakawaka

[Sumo Spiffy 582]

12 minutes ago, Wakawakawaka said:

Just for kicks, utilizing the tachiai.org 'Rank changes through the years' dashboard... To avoid unprecedented (1970-2021 timeframe) under-promotions and over-demotions will require 10 lower sanyaku.

Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu, Shodai, Kiribayama, Takayasu, Kotonowaka, Meisei, Wakamotoharu, Abi, Midorifuji

This is going to be a very fun GTB

Prepare for the unprecedented!