Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Nagoya 2022

[Tsuchinoninjin 1,291]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I'm hoping "by the numbers" would mean treating covid-related absences as draws, but who knows.

Yes, that’s what I mean. But I think they still have to count the actual fusenpai because not counting them while including the fusensho seems like a violation on some basic level. Plus that is even more record keeping and I don’t think they’ll be bothered.

[Reonito 1,773]

39 minutes ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Yes, that’s what I mean. But I think they still have to count the actual fusenpai because not counting them while including the fusensho seems like a violation on some basic level. Plus that is even more record keeping and I don’t think they’ll be bothered.

That way the wins and losses would add up, although I guess under normal circumstances they treat absences (past the fusenpai) as losses for ranking purposes, without any corresponding wins.

[Yamanashi 4,069]

2 hours ago, Tsuchinoninjin said:

Yes, that’s what I mean. But I think they still have to count the actual fusenpai because not counting them while including the fusensho seems like a violation on some basic level. Plus that is even more record keeping and I don’t think they’ll be bothered.

At the college where I teach, the Student Senate comes up with a proposal every four years or so for "Plus-Minus" grading; it seems that many students complain they got almost a B but they were given a C, so they should earn a C+ instead.  When we explain to them that getting just barely a B will earn them only a B-, they get all depressed and shelve the proposal until they graduate and then the Student Senate raises the issue again.  I think I see a similar situation here.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

At the college where I teach, the Student Senate comes up with a proposal every four years or so for "Plus-Minus" grading; it seems that many students complain they got almost a B but they were given a C, so they should earn a C+ instead.  When we explain to them that getting just barely a B will earn them only a B-, they get all depressed and shelve the proposal until they graduate and then the Student Senate raises the issue again.  I think I see a similar situation here.

Pardon me if I'm being thick, but why are they depressed with a B- instead of a C+? Is the faculty willing to give them that higher grade or just explaining that they've got a distorted interpretation of a grading scale?

11 hours ago, Reonito said:

20 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

The other two possible promotions are the Ms2 pair of Rōga and Kanno, who have the opportunity to go 5-2 and look much more menacing as replacements for Kaisei or Tochimaru. Kaisei must win out to avoid demotion, whereas Tochimaru can afford to drop one, but it might be moot if both Ms2s lose their last bout.

And they've been paired up in day 14 crossover (exchange?) bouts.

Kanno won his against Kaisei and Rōga lost his against Tochimaru. Might really be Kaisei's last basho if so, since it's likely he'll go down in favour of his exchange opponent.

Tochimaru on the other hand looks safeish to stay now.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Day 13 Makuuchi arasoi:
11-3: Y1e Terunofuji, M2w Ichinojō
10-4: Ō1e Takakeishō

Just when we think this basho is done trolling us, Day 14 had a full day of weird results. First, both 9-4s on yesterday's arasoi (M14e Myōgiryū and M17e Nishikifuji) lost to remove themselves from contention, being two off the pace and with one day to go. Then, Meisei felled Ichinojō to temporarily boost Takakeishō's and Terunofuji's hopes of seizing the yūshō, but then both of them seem to have come down with bad cases of fight-finishing impatience.

Takakeishō attempted to kotenage Wakatakakage out but gave him a sideways morozashi grip instead, resulting in Takakeishō being shoved into a shimpan - maybe that's why Takakeishō has yet to deploy belt or throw techniques into his repertoire. He simply can't match the yotsu practitioners anyway, so might as well stick to what he's good at. Takakeishō's loss seemed to have emboldened Terunofuji, who went in straight for Shōdai's belt, but then fell straight forward thanks to a well-timed makikae into an inashi and hikiotoshi from Shōdai. 

The upshot of all that was that the entire arasoi from yesterday lost their bouts, leaving us in exactly the same relative position (and eliminating the 9-4s by mathematical impossibility). Takakeishō must hope that Ichinojō loses again tomorrow and then beat Terunofuji to force the tomoesen, whereas either of the leaders must win and pray the other loses. Ichinojō on paper has the easier task, since Takakeishō isn't an automatic gimme for Terunofuji (3-5), but with his insipid performance today against a KK-hunting Meisei, one wonders whether similarly-motivated Ura (3-4 against Ichinojō) might put the finishing touches on the collapse of what looked like an unassailable yūshō run one week ago.

And of course, all that's assuming there's no final day withdrawal due to a last-minute COVID outbreak. As if the basho wasn't bad enough, it would be a total travesty if any of the stables involved (Kise, Minato, Isegahama, or Tokiwayama) were forced to bow out.

Day 14 Jūryō arasoi:
12-3: J1e Ryūden yūshō

Much like Kinbōzan one division below, Ryūden doesn't seem content to let his promotion remain a matter of chance, beating Myōgiryū to outright secure the jūryō yūshō. His closest chasers, Hokuseihō and Chiyosakae, were two wins off and needed Ryūden to lose out to get to a playoff, which didn't happen.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Fukuyamada 42]

Good chance for a playoff tomorrow.

Thrilling conclusion likely.
 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Day 14 Promotion/Demotion Picture:

Analysis assumes COVID-kyūjō rikishi are frozen.

Legend:
? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
	11-3	Terunofuji	Y
	10-4	Takakeisho	O	Mitakeumi	2-5-7	?
			O	Shodai	9-5
O	8-6	Wakatakakage	S	Daieisho	6-7-1	?
O	9-5	Hoshoryu	K	Abi	8-6	O
1	7-7	Kiribayama	M1	Takanosho	1-6-7	?
?	7-4-3	Kotonowaka	M2	Ichinojo	11-3	O
?	5-8-1	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	7-7	1
X	5-9	Wakamotoharu	M4	Takayasu	0-0-14
?	3-10-1	Endo	M5	Sadanoumi	6-8	X

Wakatakakage and Abi both secured their KKs today, guaranteeing their places in sanyaku for next basho. That would have looked to lock up lower sanyaku, except for three problems: the COVID question mark over Daieishō's record, Ichinojō's still-possible 12-3Y, and a 8-7 KK from M1e Kiribayama. The biggest change in this area probably depends on Kiribayama getting his KK, since it becomes easy to justify a pair of K2 in that event, whether or not Daieishō is demoted. 

For instance, if Daieishō remains untouched, then both Kiribayama and Ichinojō winning tomorrow could make it really easy to justify them as K2 next basho, especially if Ichinojō's win comes with the yūshō. Things get more interesting if the banzuke committee decides to demote Daieishō based on his nominal MK and if Kiribayama wins, most of the permutations also leading to K2s, although which of Hōshōryū and Ichinojō occupy the vacated sekiwake slot depends on their final results. 

Kiribayama losing, however, makes it slightly easier to shaft Ichinojō at M1 and freeze Daieishō in place. Not a particularly fair result, but then there's going to be worse going around on this particular banzuke. It probably also makes filling out the joi easier, which is looking pretty empty with a lot of bad MKs in this area; there will be some overpromotions for the likes of Tobizaru, Nishikigi, and even Tochinoshin should he secure a KK tomorrow.

Makuuchi-Jūryō
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
X	1-13	Shimanoumi	M9	Kotoeko	5-6-3	?
~	6-8	Chiyotairyu	M10	Meisei	8-6	O
?	5-6-3	Kotoshoho	M11	Midorifuji	9-5	O
~	5-9	Terutsuyoshi	M12	Takarafuji	8-6	O
?	6-3-5	Ichiyamamoto	M13	Chiyoshoma	7-7	1
O	9-5	Myogiryu	M14	Tsurugisho	5-8-1	?
O	9-5	Onosho	M15	Oho	8-6	O
1	7-7	Yutakayama	M16	Daiamami	2-9-3	X
O	9-5	Nishikifuji	M17	Chiyomaru	5-9	X
O	12-2	Ryuden	J1	Hidenoumi	5-9	X
?	4-7-3	Azumaryu	J2	Tohakuryu	3-8-3	?
1	7-7	Kagayaki	J3	Daishoho	4-9-1	?
1	7-7	Asanowaka	J4	Mitoryu	8-6	O
O	8-6	Chiyonokuni	J5	Tokushoryu	5-9	X
	7-7	Atamifuji	J6	Bushozan	8-6	~
	7-7	Akua	J7	Kotokuzan	7-7	1

Shimanoumi just sealed his own fate by losing again today, ensuring a demotable record and in all likelihood creating a third space open for jūryō promotees. At the moment, that is J5e Chiyonokuni, but he could be pipped by either of Kagayaki or Asanowaka making a KK tomorrow. None of the jūryō joi have particularly impressive promotion cases but Shimanoumi's record is so bad that it's highly unlikely he stays; for instance, a 9-6 J6w Satoyama was enough to force down a zenkyū M5e Ōsunaarashi in 2016. That same basho gave us 8-7 J5w Akiseyama forcing down 1-6-8 M11e Endō, so chances are good for any of Kagayaki, Asanoyaka, Mitoryū, and Chiyonokuni who can secure a KK to claim a third exchange.

If K2 is indeed created, vanishing the M17 rank, then a MK Yutakayama may also be in some danger. For instance, if Kagayaki goes 8-7 and Chiyonokuni and Mitoryū both manage 9-6, then that creates three reasonable cases in addition to obvious promotion Ryūden. Yutakayama can win and forestall that tomorrow, though, or all of the promotion candidates losing could also do the trick.

Jūryō-Makushita
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
O	9-5	Hiradoumi	J8	Enho	7-7	1
?	5-7-2	Kaisho	J9	Churanoumi	8-6	O
?	5-4-5	Shimazuumi	J10	Ishiura	0-0-14	X
X	4-10	Kaisei	J11	Tochimaru	6-8	~
O	8-6	Kitanowaka	J12	Yago	4-10	X
?	5-3-6	Oshoma	J13	Hokuseiho	10-4	O
O	9-5	Chiyosakae	J14	Gonoyama	8-6	O
O	4-3	Takakento	Ms1	Kinbozan	6-1	O
~	4-3	Roga	Ms2	Kanno	5-2	O
~	4-3	Tomokaze	Ms3	Daishomaru	3-3	?
X	3-4	Kamito	Ms4	Chiyonoumi	3-4	X
X	2-5	Chiyoarashi	Ms5	Shohozan	0-0	X

It's almost certainly the end of the line for long-serving veteran Kaisei, losing what looked to be an exchange bout with Ms2w Kanno today. Things went the other way for their counterparts; Tochimaru managed to beat Rōga to both save his own slot and most likely deny Rōga promotion at this point in time. Lastly, Kitanowaka removed all doubt as to his staying in jūryō by securing his KK. While there was little doubt about his safety at J12 with even only 7 wins, this more or less confirms that, barring (rather unfair) COVID demotions for Kaishō, Shimazuumi, and Ōshōma, there will only be three slots in jūryō opening on the next basho, which will go to Takakentō, Kinbōzan, and Kanno; Kaisei, Yago and Ishiura will be the ones going down instead.

I won't presume to attempt predicting the makushita joi next basho, but it's probably some combination of Rōga + Tomokaze, the three jūryō demotees (or two, if Kaisei retires), yūshō winner Yoshii, and whichever other strong KKs going down the banzuke. For now, that looks like Tsukahara, Tsushimanada, Fujiseiun, and Shōnannoumi.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Hankegami 598]

I was wondering, could Hoshoryu be eligible for a Sekiwake slot if he goes 10-5 tomorrow? I know that a 10-5 is not a particularly strong case to force a S2 slot, and in fact the in most recent cases (Tochinoshin in Aki 2015, Tochiozan in Haru 2013, Kisenosato in Natsu 2008) a 10-5 K1 remains in his position in absence of ordinary Sekiwake slots. However, considering that Ichinojo should be coming up, they could freeze Daieisho, open a S2w for Hoshoryu, and give Ichinojo his K1e. Same result with opening a K2w. Sure, the same could happen by demoting Daieisho, but I don't think they are going to be that nasty. Or so I hope.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Hankegami

[Seiyashi 4,109]

12 minutes ago, Hankegami said:

I was wondering, could Hoshoryu be eligible for a Sekiwake slot if he goes 10-5 tomorrow? I know that a 10-5 is not a particularly strong case to force a S2 slot, and in fact the in most recent cases (Tochinoshin in Aki 2015, Tochiozan in Haru 2013, Kisenosato in Natsu 2008) a 10-5 K1 remains in his position in absence of ordinary Sekiwake slots.

You've answered your own question. 11 wins is the classic threshold, although we don't know whether that has changed to be stricter in the wake of Daieishō "only" getting K2 for his 13-2Y at M2.

I don't think Ichinojō's results have any direct bearing on Hōshōryū forcing a slot. It's their treatment of Daieishō's result ultimately that matters, although strong joi results (the three wins I identified in my post) might well be responsible for swaying them one way or the other.

Considering Daieishō has failed to consistently impress at sanyaku, and was probably on course to go down one anyway, I would bet that it's most probable to see Daieishō as one of four komusubi in Aki. The only knock I have against this is that going from sekiwake to komusubi is technically a status change and unfair to Daieishō if let's say they freeze e.g. Mitakeumi's kadoban status and/or other would-be-MK rikishi like Ōshōma or Shimaazumi, on top of the systemic implications of inconsistent treatment of rikishi across the entire banzuke. But we'll wait to see what the shimpan say about the COVID kyūjō after the post-basho board meeting.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Considering Daieishō has failed to consistently impress at sanyaku, and was probably on course to go down one anyway, I would bet that it's most probable to see Daieishō as one of four komusubi in Aki. The only knock I have against this is that going from sekiwake to komusubi is technically a status change and unfair to Daieishō if let's say they freeze e.g. Mitakeumi's kadoban status and/or other would-be-MK rikishi like Ōshōma or Shimaazumi, on top of the systemic implications of inconsistent treatment of rikishi across the entire banzuke. But we'll wait to see what the shimpan say about the COVID kyūjō after the post-basho board meeting.

I have my doubts that freezing Mitakeumi in regular kadoban status will have an impact on what they do with everyone else. But I would be pretty surprised if they didn't treat everyone else exactly the same on a basic level. That is, if Daieisho got demoted to K, I think it would happen because they're basing rank movements on non-kyujo record (so 6-7 for Daieisho; the fusen loss still counts), and they would do that to everyone.

A slight (and IMO more likely) alternative to that is to not demote further than the non-kyujo record would allow, but not promote anyone who didn't have 8 wins before being forced out. In either case, to use the examples here, neither Shimazuumi nor Oshoma would be at risk of demotion, since they had winning records even with their fusen losses.

The only real prediction I'm willing to make is that the information on what they plan to do with COVID-kyujo wrestlers will be released, either officially or via leak, so we'll have something to go on. But I would be pretty surprised if their baseline approach was to whack everyone according to normal rules (e.g. Kotonowaka is MK due to being 7-4-4), because TBH it would not only be unfair to the most people, but also create the biggest headache for the committee. There would be a gargantuan number of gaps to fill and a straight-up chaotic glut of wrestlers sailing upwards to fill them. Even if some of them want to stick to the normal rules come hell or high water—and I'm sure there will be a few—I don't think, as a group, they're going to do that to themselves.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

But I would be pretty surprised if their baseline approach was to whack everyone according to normal rules (e.g. Kotonowaka is MK due to being 7-4-4), because TBH it would not only be unfair to the most people, but also create the biggest headache for the committee.

I think it's safe to say that since they are apparently willing to not count the forced withdrawals against Tamawashi and Nishikigi's ironman streaks, they're unlikely to be this harsh. Given that things have gotten to the way they are now, I think they at most go by score net difference at the point of withdrawal, counting fusenpai, which at least allows them to bump Tobizaru and Nishikigi up to fill a pretty bad hole in the joi. There'll still be a lot of banzuke luck or unluck going around, but at least it won't be the disaster that you allude to with the quoted approach.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 4,069]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Pardon me if I'm being thick, but why are they depressed with a B- instead of a C+? Is the faculty willing to give them that higher grade or just explaining that they've got a distorted interpretation of a grading scale?

The point is, they think they can get the plusses without getting the minuses.  Like wanting credit for a fusensho without being penalized with a fusenpai.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

1 minute ago, Yamanashi said:

The point is, they think they can get the plusses without getting the minuses.  Like wanting credit for a fusensho without being penalized with a fusenpai.

You mean they want a C+ but not a B-? But why? Isn't a B- higher than a C+?

[Yamanashi 4,069]

11 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

You mean they want a C+ but not a B-? But why? Isn't a B- higher than a C+?

OK, let's go through this.  When assigning a number on a 4.0 scale, A = 4.0, B = 3.0, C = 2.0, D = 1.0, F = 0.0.

With the +/- scale, a B+ might be 3.25, a B- 2.75.  The students think that a "high C" grade should be given 2.25, so that their grade point average will go up.  But they don't want to have a "low C" counted as 1.75, which will lower their average.  In reality, over a four-year college career the pluses and minuses usually cancel out.  The students suffer from a well-known fallacy often found in children -- "all candy, no vegetables".  Sadly, many persist in this fallacy long after they graduate.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

10 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

OK, let's go through this.  When assigning a number on a 4.0 scale, A = 4.0, B = 3.0, C = 2.0, D = 1.0, F = 0.0.

With the +/- scale, a B+ might be 3.25, a B- 2.75.  The students think that a "high C" grade should be given 2.25, so that their grade point average will go up.  But they don't want to have a "low C" counted as 1.75, which will lower their average.  In reality, over a four-year college career the pluses and minuses usually cancel out.  The students suffer from a well-known fallacy often found in children -- "all candy, no vegetables".  Sadly, many persist in this fallacy long after they graduate.

I..... C. 

[Nantonoyama 255]

Let's be creative! I would say that the 2-5 of Mitakeumi would need a 9-6 in Aki to cancel out => 11-11 across both basho, one of the losses being the fusen. A 8-7 in Aki could then be a demotable record. Wouldn't that be fair?

[Seiyashi 4,109]

6 minutes ago, Nantonoyama said:

Let's be creative! I would say that the 2-5 of Mitakeumi would need a 9-6 in Aki to cancel out => 11-11 across both basho, one of the losses being the fusen. A 8-7 in Aki could then be a demotable record. Wouldn't that be fair?

I think it is beyond the NSK's collective cognitive capabilities. I think they just deal with him separately and just keep him kadoban next basho, since it's easier to justify that way because of his ōzeki status. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Yamanashi 4,069]

27 minutes ago, Nantonoyama said:

Let's be creative! I would say that the 2-5 of Mitakeumi would need a 9-6 in Aki to cancel out => 11-11 across both basho, one of the losses being the fusen. A 8-7 in Aki could then be a demotable record. Wouldn't that be fair?

I think that, considering Shodai's later-round performances, and in spite of Mitakeuni's injury, they shouldn't make any projections about eventual won-loss records from a 2-5 start.

[Akinomaki 41,764]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I have my doubts that freezing Mitakeumi in regular kadoban status will have an impact on what they do with everyone else. But I would be pretty surprised if they didn't treat everyone else exactly the same on a basic level. That is, if Daieisho got demoted to K, I think it would happen because they're basing rank movements on non-kyujo record (so 6-7 for Daieisho; the fusen loss still counts), and they would do that to everyone.

If the fusenpai doesn't break a continues appearance streak, it likely won't count for the rank decision either, so 6-6 as a base for Daieisho, no makekoshi, no kachikoshi either, in that case no demotion is the usual action. I tend towards basing the ranking decision on the kachikoshi result when they left: 3-2 is like 8-7, 1 kachikoshi (=exceeding win). Mitakeumi maybe gets a special treatment.

But it usually tends to turn out completely different than I guess it will.

[Reonito 1,773]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Kanno won his against Kaisei and Rōga lost his against Tochimaru. Might really be Kaisei's last basho if so, since it's likely he'll go down in favour of his exchange opponent.

Tochimaru on the other hand looks safeish to stay now.

Based on today's results and how they set up tomorrow's torikumi, they're clearly viewing this as settled. Ishiura, Yago and Kaisei will get exchanged with Kinbozan, Takakento and Kanno (not the latter exactly distinguished himself in his victory over Kaisei). Roga, Tomokaze, and presumably Daishomaru will get to try again from the makushita joi. I am assuming Tochimaru is safe, along with the absent Oshoma and Shimazuumi.

[Reonito 1,773]

8 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I won't presume to attempt predicting the makushita joi next basho, but it's probably some combination of Rōga + Tomokaze, the three jūryō demotees (or two, if Kaisei retires), yūshō winner Yoshii, and whichever other strong KKs going down the banzuke. For now, that looks like Tsukahara, Tsushimanada, Fujiseiun, and Shōnannoumi.

Going 0-15 from J10 should drop Ishiura well below the joi. So Yago, maybe Kaisei, Roga, Tomokaze, presumably Daishomaru, leaving 5-6 slots for other makushita KKs. I think the 5 you list are locks. If Kaisei hangs it up right away, that could leave room for Shiden or Shishi with a win, or possibly Tamashoho depending on how they treat him.

[Reonito 1,773]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I think it is beyond the NSK's collective cognitive capabilities. I think they just deal with him separately and just keep him kadoban next basho, since it's easier to justify that way because of his ōzeki status. 

Yeah demoting someone with a kachi-koshi goes against such core principles that it would break their brains.

[Reonito 1,773]

5 hours ago, Akinomaki said:

If the fusenpai doesn't break a continues appearance streak, it likely won't count for the rank decision either, so 6-6 as a base for Daieisho, no makekoshi, no kachikoshi either, in that case no demotion is the usual action. I tend towards basing the ranking decision on the kachikoshi result when they left: 3-2 is like 8-7, 1 kachikoshi (=exceeding win). Mitakeumi maybe gets a special treatment.

Especially since, depending on the timing of the withdrawal announcements, some didn't get a fusenpai but got left off the torikumi entirely. This didn't happen in makuuchi, but Oshoma's record in juryo stands at 5-3 on the dohyo, and 5-3-6 overall, and there are more examples in the lower divisions, e.g. 3-3 Daishomaru.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,773]

9 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

If K2 is indeed created, vanishing the M17 rank, then a MK Yutakayama may also be in some danger. For instance, if Kagayaki goes 8-7 and Chiyonokuni and Mitoryū both manage 9-6, then that creates three reasonable cases in addition to obvious promotion Ryūden. Yutakayama can win and forestall that tomorrow, though, or all of the promotion candidates losing could also do the trick.

I honestly don't think Yutakayama is in any danger. A 7-8 at M16e, even if M17 is gone, is borderline at worst, while none of the promotion contenders would have an ordinary by-the-numbers promotion case even with a win (the best Mitoryu can do by the numbers is J1, while it's J2 for the other two). The only reason they're still in the running is that we have 3 incumbents whose rank-record combinations are so bad that they must go down even if that means some very lucky promotions.

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I honestly don't think Yutakayama is in any danger. A 7-8 at M16e, even if M17 is gone, is borderline at worst, while none of the promotion contenders would have an ordinary by-the-numbers promotion case even with a win (the best Mitoryu can do by the numbers is J1, while it's J2 for the other two). The only reason they're still in the running is that we have 3 incumbents whose rank-record combinations are so bad that they must go down even if that means some very lucky promotions.

More to the point, two things have to happen for Yutakayama to be demoted:

1. Once the initial calculations are done, he has to be ranked 43rd or below amongst all the rikishi. By that I mean, think of M16E as being 39th of the 42 makuuchi slots. When the calculations are done, the "correct" makuuchi members are the top 42 on that list. He would need to be below that group.

At the moment, if he loses and finishes 7-8, he's still guaranteed to move ahead of Shimanoumi. If Terutsuyoshi loses, they would be tied. Since we don't know what they're doing with the COVIDs, let's leave Tsurugisho out for now.

Who's moving ahead of him? Nishikifuji and Ryuden for certain. Then...?

If two people move to K2 and M17 is entirely eliminated, it's quite possible he does the ol' Yutakayama shuffle and stays in place at M16E with a 7-8 MK. That would put him 41st of 42, and even that would/should require someone to be moved or kept ahead of him that mathematically should be behind him.

2. If, somehow, I've completely forgotten how arithmetic works and there are enough people to nudge him down, recall that the committee bumped Myogiryu ahead of Tsurugisho and Oho/Yutakayama ahead of Daiamami/Nishikifuji despite the latter in each case calculating ahead of the former. I don't know if that would extend to protecting Yutakayama's makuuchi slot against a would-be juryo promotee who's, say, a half-rank better mathematically, but it's definitely not impossible.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Sumo Spiffy