Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Nagoya 2022

[Seiyashi 4,109]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

 

I did, and it just said "Quote 1 post". If I clicked that, I simply quoted that post, not any others within it. That seemed to be the obvious method, so when it didn't work the way I expected, I was puzzled and just moved on.

You can click on multiple plus signs from different posts and the little box will change accordingly, and leave you space in between each quoted post as well. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,109]

4 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I think we do mean the same thing. You're talking about the initial moves, I believe. To me, initial movement is just that—setting everyone up based on record. The pressure comes when gaps need to be filled—if there are openings, then there are ranks with multiple people, and someone has to get popped into the gaps. So, if there are openings that require moving guys up to fill them, that's upward pressure (they must be moved up to make the rankings work). Likewise, if there's a glut and people are going to get shoved downward, that's downward pressure.

While it looked like this initially, I more or less arrived last night at the same conclusion as Reonito's post on Tachiai this morning. Freeze everyone you possibly can like 7-8s, give really lenient demotions, and the banzuke starts taking shape. I'm not yet 100% happy with my draft and I haven't checked against Reonito's exact placement yet, but it feels a lot more tractable than trying to do it the traditional way of sorting rikishi into bands based on their performance and ranking them accordingly. 

I'm also wondering if Kiribayama will remain stuck to avoid such drastic overpromotions. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,613]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

against Reonito's exact placement yet

I haven't exactly committed myself to an exact order yet 

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

I'm also wondering if Kiribayama will remain stuck to avoid such drastic overpromotions. 

Eh, it's half a rank.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I haven't exactly committed myself to an exact order yet 

Eh, it's half a rank.

Well, you can tell I didn't read it too carefully  Twas in bed and before my caffeine, so definitely something slipped twixt the eyes and the brain. Reopening it and trying not to look too hard at the "answers", though!

It is half a rank but it's not a side swap. So I don't know if the optics of M6w 8-5-2 Tobizaru at M2 instead of M1 (among others) makes things slightly more palatable. It's not that likely, I agree, but not impossible if the committee doesn't light on promoting Kiribayama and Ichinojō together at the very beginning.

Also, if you keep Ura and Takayasu in place, then you only need to put Midorifuji at M3/M4, which as you noted would be more in line with precedent. That also bumps Ryūden back down to M14 which is a bit more in line with how jūryō promotions would normally go.

I've more or less finalised my draft since and barring minor adjustments (like screwing up the order of two wrestlers moving in the same direction based on their rank/record) I'm a lot happier with the version that doesn't have K2w Kiribayama. The M3-M6 area becomes a lot easier with one more wrestler simply because Ura and Takayasu (and to a lesser extent Tamawashi) are already taking 3 slots so you don't have to reach as far. Think Shimanoumi is still going down, though.

This GTB is going to be really messy, though, since there's so many calls that could go one way or the other that could have a chain reaction on the rest of the banzuke.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Tigerboy1966 1,539]

My attempt at juryo:

Chiyomaru (M17w 6-9)      J1   Chiyonokuni (J5e 8-7)
Hidenoumi (J1w 6-9)       J2   Shimanoumi (M9e 1-14)
Kagayaki (J3e 7-8)        J3   Atamifuji (J6e 8-7)
Azumaryu (J2e 4-6)        J4   Asanowaka (J4e 7-8)
Bushozan (J6w 8-7)        J5   Akua (J7e 8-7)
Hokuseiho (J13w 11-4)     J6   Kotokuzan (J7w 8-7)
Enho (J8w 8-7)            J7   Churanoumi (J9w 9-6)
Tohakuryu (J2w 3-7)       J8   Daiamami (M16w 2-8-2)
Daishoho (J3w 4-8)        J9   Shimazuumi (J10e 5-3)
Tokushoryu (J5w 5-10)     J10  Kitanowaka (J12e 8-7)
Chiyosakae (J14e 9-6)     J11  Kinbozan (Ms1w 6-1)
Oshoma (J13e 5-3)         J12  Kaisho (J9e 5-6) 
Gonoyama (J14w 8-7)       J13  Kanno (Ms2w 5-2)
Takakento (Ms1e 4-3)      J14  Tochimaru (J11w 6-9)

Colours and format taken directly from Asashosakari's verson.

[lackmaker 446]

J1 "C"

4 "A"s around J4

J10-13 West "K"

J14 "T"

Are you just trying to make it look nice?

[Reonito 1,613]

15 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I've more or less finalised my draft since and barring minor adjustments (like screwing up the order of two wrestlers moving in the same direction based on their rank/record) I'm a lot happier with the version that doesn't have K2w Kiribayama. The M3-M6 area becomes a lot easier with one more wrestler simply because Ura and Takayasu (and to a lesser extent Tamawashi) are already taking 3 slots so you don't have to reach as far.

I tried out a version with no extra san'yaku, and it's certainly tidy if extremely harsh on Ichinojo (and has the feature of not promoting Kotonowaka with an incomplete record):

M1 Kiribayama Ichinojo

M2 Kotonowaka Tobizaru

M3 Nishikigi Ura

M4 Tamawashi Takayasu

M5 Midorifuji Sadanoumi

M6 Wakamoto Meisei

I don't think they'll go this route, as shafting Ichinojo like this could be extremely unpopular, but it does solve a lot of problems.

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I tried out a version with no extra san'yaku, and it's certainly tidy if extremely harsh on Ichinojo (and has the feature of not promoting Kotonowaka with an incomplete record):

M1 Kiribayama Ichinojo

M2 Kotonowaka Tobizaru

M3 Nishikigi Ura

M4 Tamawashi Takayasu

M5 Midorifuji Sadanoumi

M6 Wakamoto Meisei

I don't think they'll go this route, as shafting Ichinojo like this could be extremely unpopular, but it does solve a lot of problems.

I don't think they'll do this either, for an additional reason: Keeping things like this forces Ichinojo to stay behind Kiribayama, which seems clearly wrong. Creating the new K slots allows them to appropriately move Ichi in front.

I know the M1-M5 slots are paid special attention, but considering we're talking about the exact same wrestler order (whatever it ends up being), just with different tags attached, it's hard to believe they'll place that much importance on making each particular rank look "worthy", so to speak. The entire attitude of rikishi movement over the years seems to be that if someone lands at a shockingly high rank, the committee's just like, "Ok, you're here now. Figure it out." And having some M1 Flying Monkey makes for a fun story going in, with a result that's not likely to be any different if he's M2.

[Godango 1,054]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't think they'll go this route, as shafting Ichinojo like this could be extremely unpopular, but it does solve a lot of problems.

Agreed on both counts. Honestly I think even Komusubi for Ichinojo is harsh but understandable, I don't see a way to avoid an expanded sanyaku, and Kiribayama's KK means they still have symmetry. I think it's all but guaranteed.

[mt fuji 976]

didn't want to make a new thread for the next basho but new Juryo for Aki are Kinbozan, Kanno, and Takakento (returning). cue the speculation for the rest of the banzuke...

[Reonito 1,613]

2 minutes ago, mt fuji said:

didn't want to make a new thread for the next basho but new Juryo for Aki are Kinbozan, Kanno, and Takakento (returning). cue the speculation for the rest of the banzuke...

It's exactly what we all expected, so it suggests they didn't do anything too weird...

[mt fuji 976]

It definitely seems like the sensible decision, but this basho was so chaotic that I still don't really have any idea what will happen with the rest of the banzuke. So Ishiura, Kaisei, and Yago are going down?

Excited to see what Kinbozan and Kanno can do with a full 15 match schedule!

Edited July 27, 2022 by mt fuji

[Reonito 1,613]

8 minutes ago, mt fuji said:

It definitely seems like the sensible decision, but this basho was so chaotic that I still don't really have any idea what will happen with the rest of the banzuke. So Ishiura, Kaisei, and Yago are going down?

Excited to see what Kinbozan and Kanno can do with a full 15 match schedule!

I presume that those are the demotions, and that the fact that there are only the 3 expected exchanges means that the COVID-related absences of Shimazuumi and Oshoma are not being treated as losses. I have to say I am much more excited about Kinbozan's debut than about Kanno's (I wonder if he gets a shikona now).

[Katooshu 3,416]

With Yago going down, Kinbozan's promotion was much needed to keep the neckless sekitori ranks healthy. He looks to have the potential to get through juryo in 2-3 basho.

Kanno will have a harder time in juryo, but should be able to hold his own there eventually. He brings a new style and different bag of tricks to the division. And yes, he brings henka too.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Katooshu

[Seiyashi 4,109]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

I presume that those are the demotions, and that the fact that there are only the 3 expected exchanges means that the COVID-related absences of Shimazuumi and Oshoma are not being treated as losses. I have to say I am much more excited about Kinbozan's debut than about Kanno's (I wonder if he gets a shikona now).

The tweet announcing promotions states that his shikona is Tochimusashi. Is Kanno a Tōkyō-ite? (EDIT: Hmm, Saitama. Probably close enough; historical Musashi province did encompass present-day Saitama.)

10 hours ago, Godango said:

13 hours ago, Reonito said:

I don't think they'll go this route, as shafting Ichinojo like this could be extremely unpopular, but it does solve a lot of problems.

Agreed on both counts. Honestly I think even Komusubi for Ichinojo is harsh but understandable, I don't see a way to avoid an expanded sanyaku, and Kiribayama's KK means they still have symmetry. I think it's all but guaranteed.

I think the worst they'll do is to have only Ichinojō as K2e; shafting both him and Kiribayama would be really stingy even by the NSK's standards. 

I don't know how to explain this but the version with only Ichinojō at K2 feels less... "stretched" to me. Somehow the version with both him and K2w Kiribayama has the double problem of a joi void and too many people at the bottom of the banzuke, and it feels that a lot more luck is going to go around than the banzuke committee is going to be collectively comfortable with.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kintamayama 45,974]

"The banzuke was made in a fair way. Mitakeumi? The base is the same as usual but I can't say anything until the banzuke is released," said a cryptic Isegahama Oyakata today. I guess that means Mitakeumi remains kadoban for Aki. The reporter is guessing those that got kachikoshi or makekoshi before they pulled out will be ranked according to these records, but those who withdrew before KK/MK will either stay at their ranks or be demoted  a rank ." I can't talk about the banzuke specifically as that would mean I would be giving away details. We can discuss this after the banzuke is released on August 29th," he added. When asked if new rules that will address these specific issues will be instated, he answered; "We can't do that..It's the banzuke, after all."  It is said that the banzuke is a "living thing", so making precise rules for anything is out of the question, it seems.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Kintamayama

[sumoforever 27]

Really interested to see how Kinbozan fares in juryo. Five basho from sandanme tsukedashi to sekitori (all kachi koshi - 7-0Y, 5-2, 7-0Y, 5-2, 6-1). Very tall, strong rikishi with huge potential. Barring injury, he seems destined to rise high into makuuchi before too long.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

"The banzuke was made in a fair way. Mitakeumi? The base is the same as usual but I can't say anything until the banzuke is released," said a cryptic Isegahama Oyakata today. I guess that means Mitakeumi remains kadoban for Aki. The reporter is guessing those that got kachikoshi or makekoshi before they pulled out will be ranked according to these records, but those who withdrew before KK/MK will either stay at their ranks or be demoted  a rank ." I can't talk about the banzuke specifically as that would mean I would be giving away details. We can discuss this after the banzuke is released on August 29th," he added. When asked if new rules that will address these specific issues will be instated, he answered; "We can't do that..It's the banzuke, after all."  It is said that the banzuke is a "living thing", so making precise rules for anything is out of the question, it seems.

That's almost enough for me to pull the trigger on the 1 K2 version of my entry, although this part of the discussion should go to the GTB thread I think.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[nelimw 80]

What does it take to force 3 or more sekiwake spots in general? Is there any chance of 3 sekiwake (Ichinojo, Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu) and then 3 komusubi (Abi, Kiribayama, Daieisho)?

Edited July 27, 2022 by nelimw

[Seiyashi 4,109]

37 minutes ago, nelimw said:

What does it take to force 3 or more sekiwake spots in general? Is there any chance of 3 sekiwake (Ichinojo, Wakatakakage, Hoshoryu) and then 3 komusubi (Abi, Kiribayama, Daieisho)?

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=5&group_expand=on&group_by=basho&having=3&form2_rank=s

Both sekiwake KK + (demoted ōzeki OR komusubi with 11+ wins), at least as far as we used to know. It used to be that a high hiramaku yūshō would warrant a straight jump to sekiwake despite no open slots (see Kotomitsuki, Aki 2001 and Mitoizumi, Nagoya 1992), or much more rarely a dōten (Hokutoriki, 13-2 D from M1w in Natsu 2004) but since Daieishō's yūshō that precedent is looking very outdated.

If Daieishō falls it'll be 2S/4K, not 3/3. I don't think he's going to fall.

There was also the artifact of Miyabiyama with a kosho-related demotion not holding up Asashōryū's promotion, in a similar case to what happened with Meisei and Asanoyama recently.

While that query doesn't show the counterexamples, it's interesting to note that 11 wins from M1/2 and 10 from K would get an extra sekiwake slot as "recently" as 1996, and in the 60s, even 9 wins from K were enough. I wonder if the next komusubi to score 11 wins with KK sekiwake will find out the hard way that 12 wins is the threshold to be promoted - which sounds mildly ludicrous to me since that's enough to win a yūshō like idk, half the time.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[nelimw 80]

7 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=5&group_expand=on&group_by=basho&having=3&form2_rank=s

Both sekiwake KK + (demoted ōzeki OR komusubi with 11+ wins), at least as far as we used to know. It used to be that a high hiramaku yūshō would warrant a straight jump to sekiwake despite no open slots (see Kotomitsuki, Aki 2001 and Mitoizumi, Nagoya 1992), but since Daieishō's yūshō that precedent is looking very outdated.

If Daieishō falls it'll be 2S/4K, not 3/3. I don't think he's going to fall.

You database wizards never cease to impress me. Thanks

[Ack! 486]

If Ichinojo becomes K2, will he be K2e or K2w?  M17w disappears as a result of the K2 position, so I would guess he would be K2w to keep the east/west balance?

Edited July 27, 2022 by Ack!
M17w, not Ms17w

[Seiyashi 4,109]

6 minutes ago, Ack! said:

If Ichinojo becomes K2, will he be K2e or K2w?  Ms17w disappears as a result of the K2 position, so I would guess he would be K2w to keep the east/west balance?

M17 not Ms17w, and K2e since the upper sanyaku already balance. E/W balance is only a thing in the sanyaku; see Hatsu 2021 (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202101&heya=-1&shusshin=-1) for cases where they obviously don't bother balancing the whole of makuuchi.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Kintamayama 45,974]

5 minutes ago, Ack! said:

If Ichinojo becomes K2, will he be K2e or K2w?  Ms17w disappears as a result of the K2 position, so I would guess he would be K2w to keep the east/west balance?

I'd say K2 E, as the balance starts from the top.

[Yamanashi 3,988]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&rowcount=5&group_expand=on&group_by=basho&having=3&form2_rank=s

Both sekiwake KK + (demoted ōzeki OR komusubi with 11+ wins), at least as far as we used to know. It used to be that a high hiramaku yūshō would warrant a straight jump to sekiwake despite no open slots (see Kotomitsuki, Aki 2001 and Mitoizumi, Nagoya 1992), or much more rarely a dōten (Hokutoriki, 13-2 D from M1w in Natsu 2004) but since Daieishō's yūshō that precedent is looking very outdated.

If Daieishō falls it'll be 2S/4K, not 3/3. I don't think he's going to fall.

There was also the artifact of Miyabiyama with a kosho-related demotion not holding up Asashōryū's promotion, in a similar case to what happened with Meisei and Asanoyama recently.

While that query doesn't show the counterexamples, it's interesting to note that 11 wins from M1/2 and 10 from K would get an extra sekiwake slot as "recently" as 1996, and in the 60s, even 9 wins from K were enough. I wonder if the next komusubi to score 11 wins with KK sekiwake will find out the hard way that 12 wins is the threshold to be promoted - which sounds mildly ludicrous to me since that's enough to win a yūshō like idk, half the time.

Is it the money (they're spending too much on COVID-related things and losing income)??  Or the precedent along with the money? (Never mind; money always wins over precedent).