Aki Basho 2018 Discussion [SPOILERS]

[Gurowake 4,148]

1 hour ago, Feginowaka said:

will this be a basho without sansho?
I can't see somebody deserving any of the sansho

Takakeisho is the only one I can see them offering an unconditional sansho to in order to be sure that they give out at least one.  They could also give one to the winner of Yoshikaze-Hokutofuji if they don't like the Takakeisho idea. Maaaaybe the winner of Ichinojo-Myogiryu instead.  Those all are stretches to make sure that someone gets one though.

[Gurowake 4,148]

15 minutes ago, Wakatakasake said:

winner of Ryuden/Takanoiwa?

You're looking at the wrong torikumi.  Ryuden faces Daishomaru, who is MK.  Takanoiwa faces Okinoumi who is 8-6 so theoretically they could give one to the winner of that, but that's extremely far fetched.

[Gurowake 4,148]

3 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

He can't be an Ozeki in the next basho but one more win and Mita keeps his run going for the next basho.     Makekosh will stop his run even for the next basho.   It'd reset the run to 0.  

Well, he can't be MK any more.  8 wins is probably not enough to generate any advance buzz for an Ozeki target and so it would be probably end up being only a surprise one like Goeido's where he ends up doing better than expected.  9 wins, well, that's what he had two tournaments ago, so maybe they could just set a target of 11 again, although 13-9-11 is pretty weak as Ozeki runs go, with strongest result being the oldest and not having 10+ all three basho.  9-13-11 looks far better with 2 11+ tournaments back-to-back. 

[robnplunder 978]

11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Takakeisho is the only one I can see them offering an unconditional sansho to in order to be sure that they give out at least one.  They could also give one to the winner of Yoshikaze-Hokutofuji if they don't like the Takakeisho idea. Maaaaybe the winner of Ichinojo-Myogiryu instead.  Those all are stretches to make sure that someone gets one though.

It'd be fair for Tankakeisho to get the prize.   But there are other candidates.  I don't see Ichinojo getting it even with a win today.  

[robnplunder 978]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Well, he can't be MK any more.  8 wins is probably not enough to generate any advance buzz for an Ozeki target and so it would be probably end up being only a surprise one like Goeido's where he ends up doing better than expected.  9 wins, well, that's what he had two tournaments ago, so maybe they could just set a target of 11 again, although 13-9-11 is pretty weak as Ozeki runs go, with strongest result being the oldest and not having 10+ all three basho.  9-13-11 looks far better with 2 11+ tournaments back-to-back. 

IMO, realistically, the current crop of aging Y/Os have to go intai/lose form before Mita can step up to fill their position.   Mita's yusho was a lucky one in that most of the Y/O were decimated due to injury.  He got a lot of help.  One thing going for Mita is the fact that he clearly has been improving.

[Wakatakasake 10]

41 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

You're looking at the wrong torikumi.  Ryuden faces Daishomaru, who is MK.  Takanoiwa faces Okinoumi who is 8-6 so theoretically they could give one to the winner of that, but that's extremely far fetched.

Whoops! Thank you. Do you think Takakeisho needs to beat Asanoyama tomorrow to merit a sansho? I personally hope Yoshikaze gets one, especially if he beats Hokutofuji. But I agree they are all stretches.

[Gurowake 4,148]

20 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

IMO, realistically, the current crop of aging Y/Os have to go intai/lose form before Mita can step up to fill their position.   Mita's yusho was a lucky one in that most of the Y/O were decimated due to injury.  He got a lot of help.  One thing going for Mita is the fact that he clearly has been improving.

Yeah, there are a lot of future Ozeki who mill about in sanyaku or joi maegashira for years until the current crop are too weak to beat them enough to stop them, while they're clearly better than the rest of the maegashira who rotate in and out of the joi.  The last few Ozeki have been relatively different with much shorter most recent runs at the top.  Tochinoshin and Takayasu certainly had experience beforehand, but weren't fixtures like Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku, Goeido, and Kakuryu were for years before their promotion.  Terunofuji of course managed to get promoted on his first run at it while he was still new to the division.

[Gurowake 4,148]

5 minutes ago, Wakatakasake said:

Whoops! Thank you. Do you think Takakeisho needs to beat Asanoyama tomorrow to merit a sansho? I personally hope Yoshikaze gets one, especially if he beats Hokutofuji. But I agree they are all stretches.

One tournament a few years ago, after the main vote, they realized they might be giving out zero sansho since they were all conditional and none of the rikishi faced each other.  So they went back and determined which of the opponents of the conditional ones most would deserve a sansho and gave him the chance to win and get one as well.  I believe it was Hatsu 2015, though I can't say for sure whether it was Tamawashi or Terunofuji who were first considered for conditional ones.  I'd have to look up the forum discussion at the time.

edit; Sorry, that has little to do with what I quoted because I made several leaps of topic in my mind.  I was going to say that Takakeisho may get one unconditionally simply so they don't do the same dance this time of conditionally giving one to someone who hardly deserves one.  Asanoyama in no way deserves one, so if they want to guarantee one, it's not by being the winner of Asanoyama-Takakeisho.

Edited September 22, 2018 by Gurowake

[Rocks 1,810]

1 hour ago, Wakatakasake said:

I wonder why people make predictions of "ever" or "never". Rare to see them proved wrong quite so quickly, however.

I also wonder if all the unnecessary drama in this thread was simply due to a terrible prediction?

If you had read my other responses to that you would know why I said it. For you, TLDR: Enho he neither the size or strength to have a winning record at such a  level. 

if you had read my other comments you would have seen I was sure he would KK. It became very clear that was going to happen no matter what it took.  Now, if you watched Enho's matches and his schedule and consider that legitimately competing and achieving a KK  then I have a bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in buying. 

As far it that terrible prediction having anything to do with my other posts , no it doesn't. That has more to do with people making  terrible posts they are unwilling to back up and yet acting as if they did by simply dismissing your responses. My prediction was terrible but you will notice I gave reasons for it at the time and actually addressed what others said to me.

[Wakatakasake 10]

1 minute ago, Rocks said:

If you had read my other responses to that you would know why I said it. For you, TLDR: Enho he neither the size or strength to have a winning record at such a  level. 

if you had read my other comments you would have seen I was sure he would KK. It became very clear that was going to happen no matter what it took.  Now, if you watched Enho's matches and his schedule and consider that legitimately competing and achieving a KK  then I have a bridge in Brooklyn you might be interested in buying. 

As far it that terrible prediction having anything to do with my other posts , no it doesn't. That has more to do with people making  terrible posts they are unwilling to back up and yet acting as if they did by simply dismissing your responses. My prediction was terrible but you will notice I gave reasons for it at the time and actually addressed what others said to me.

I guess I really don't understand people who put conditions on statistics. To me a KK is a KK and a MK is a MK. But I'm fine with leaving it there and agreeing to disagree. My apologies.

[Rocks 1,810]

Just now, Wakatakasake said:

I guess I really don't understand people who put conditions on statistics. To me a KK is a KK and a MK is a MK. But I'm fine with leaving it there and agreeing to disagree. My apologies.

I would totally agree. It is an official KK. And I was wrong in my prediction. 

[Asashosakari 20,222]

Ryuden might get a sansho nomination and a couple of votes simply for his 8-1 start, too bad he fell off the pace of the yusho race too quickly afterwards to actually look a credible contender for a prize.

Beyond that I agree with Gurowake that Takakeisho seems to be the only decent unconditional candidate. And a significant share of the journalists who are voting are probably still Takanohana supporters, which might help.

Perhaps Myogiryu in recognition of his recent career revival if he gets to 9-6 against Ichinojo?

[Kintamayama 47,175]

26 minutes ago, Rocks said:

I would totally agree. It is an official KK. And I was wrong in my prediction. 

Actually, I was the one that got the ball rolling by saying Enhou will not make it to Makuuchi. I can't believe he's 9-5, even if his opponents were not the cream of the crop. Last time around with the same opponents more or less he was 4-11. So maybe I'm not seeing this correctly. Lately, my predictions have been somewhat lame..

Edited September 22, 2018 by Kintamayama

[Eikokurai 3,437]

3 hours ago, maorencze said:

Guys if you would be so kind and explain to what does this (nonsensical, in my opinion) discussion have to do with Aki Basho 2018 Discussion?

If anything, please explain, if nothing, please move it to another thread.

We’ve already ended the conversation. I don’t think anyone wants us polluting the thread further with explanations. 

Edited September 22, 2018 by Eikokurai

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Am I the only person here who has actually been impressed with Enho's sumo? Very solid and a surprising lack of comedy Ura shenanigans. He deserves 10 wins and nice cup of tea.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Pandaazuma

[Joaoiyama 318]

Enho can do better than ishiura because he doesn't try to do big man sumo at all unlike ishiura who forgets everyone is 50kilos(110lbs) heavier than him, Enho does need to get bigger but his skillset is phenomenal and with Hakuho mentoring him great things could be coming from the little guy.

 

[specialweek 2 138]

They will find a sansho winner. If Yoshikaze wins he could be a consideration. Never been a basho afaik where there was not at last one awarded.

[Asashosakari 20,222]

38 minutes ago, Pandaazuma said:

Am I think only person here who has actually been impressed with Enho's sumo? Very solid and a surprising lack of comedy Ura shenanigans. He deserves 10 wins and nice cup of tea.

Nope, same here, and for the same reason. (I've noted my relative lack of interest in Ura's approach before.) I've become a fan of Tobizaru over the last couple of basho as well, another lighter-weight guy who mostly goes right at it. Just in time for me personally , as the Kitaharima Era sadly seems to have reached its end.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Only one maegashira in the joi* has a kachikoshi secured going into day 15 (Myogiryu at 8-6). Only Kaisei is in position to join him. This feels unusual to me but I’m not sure. Perhaps it’s just because five of them can’t even make 5 wins that it feels worse than normal. Is it possible to query how often we’ve gone into the final day like this?

As an extension of that, we can go as far down as Hokutofuji at M9 before we find another rikishi with his KK settled before senshuraku.

*If M5 is counted as joi.

Edited September 23, 2018 by Eikokurai

[Bumpkin 438]

Myogiryu is ranked M5e. That's #19 of 42. Myogiryu faced no Y/O. He is not in the joi.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

40 minutes ago, Bumpkin said:

Myogiryu is ranked M5e. That's #19 of 42. Myogiryu faced no Y/O. He is not in the joi.

Sorry, my little asterisk postscript saying exactly that got deleted without me noticing. Fat fingers. I have edited it back in at the end. The meaning of “joi” is imprecise at best. Myogiryu didn’t fight Y/O, hence my qualifier, but he fought the junior sanyaku guys. Some people say the joi goes down to 20, so he’d sneak in. Either way, I don’t think it alters my query all that much, the crux of which is how often we go into day 15 with so many guys at top of hiramaku without a KK. :)

Edited September 23, 2018 by Eikokurai

[robnplunder 978]

3 hours ago, Joaoiyama said:

Enho can do better than ishiura because he doesn't try to do big man sumo at all unlike ishiura who forgets everyone is 50kilos(110lbs) heavier than him, Enho does need to get bigger but his skillset is phenomenal and with Hakuho mentoring him great things could be coming from the little guy.

 

Enho seems to have more imagination than Ishiura.  It seems the big guys have figured Ishiura out.  Unless Ishiura brings new aspects of his sumo, he will be a regular stay at juryo.    Give Enho a few more basho and see if he eventually settles  in juryo.   Personally, I think he will frequent juryo much more than he does Makuuchi.

[Gurowake 4,148]

49 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Only one maegashira in the joi* has a kachikoshi secured going into day 15 (Myogiryu at 8-6). Only Kaisei is in position to join him. This feels unusual to me but I’m not sure.

The terrible joi maegashira records are to expected when the top 5 have averaged more than 11 wins in 14 days, 3 other sanyaku have KKs, and one has 7 wins.  By my counting the wins minus the losses in sanyaku are 40, so that needs to be how many losses minus wins the joi maegashira have in those matches.  They don't have quite that poor of records because the joi maegashira have had winning records against non-joi maegashira.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

3 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

Enho seems to have more imagination than Ishiura.  It seems the big guys have figured Ishiura out.  Unless Ishiura brings new aspects of his sumo, he will be a regular stay at juryo.    Give Enho a few more basho and see if he eventually settles  in juryo.   Personally, I think he will frequent juryo much more than he does Makuuchi.

From the little I’ve seen of Enho he does seem to be thinking on his feet more than Ishiura does. The latter seems to give up the moment his game plan gets figured out. He doesn’t improvise much anymore.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

2 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

The terrible joi maegashira records are to expected when the top 5 have averaged more than 11 wins in 14 days, 3 other sanyaku have KKs, and one has 7 wins.  By my counting the wins minus the losses in sanyaku are 40, so that needs to be how many losses minus wins the joi maegashira have in those matches.  They don't have quite that poor of records because the joi maegashira have had winning records against non-joi maegashira.

Sure. I’m really just wondering how to query how common it is and, more specifically, how common it is to reach day 15 in this situation. I’m not very good with the database!