Inquiry for FiveThirtyEight about Henka (split from Basho Talk)

[Kintamayama 44,169]

I am famously an avid henka advocator. But this is BECAUSE it's not that common. If we would be seeing henkas every other bout I would totally be turned off it, much like too-high doses of chocolate chip cookies or lentil soup, but I digress.. I like the mind games part where someone like Aminishiki's opponent is always wary about it-it adds to my suspense at least. And a few years back we had some guys (Hayateumi?) do spectacular hassoutobi henkas that were delightful and pseudo-orgasmic to behold..

That being said , I must admit that a Hakuhou henka and a Harumafuji non- henka (which is a total henka, semantics aside) will always disappoint me, regardless of the circumstances. No anger or hate, just disappointment.

Edited March 29, 2016 by Kintamayama

[Benevolance 2,453]

No anger or hate, just disappointment.

Like a bowl of chocolate lentil soup.

[Asashosakari 18,649]

1) Henka as "bad sumo". The full-blown jump-to-the-side henka is somewhat of a response to developments from the last 30-40 years, namely the greater focus on a hard-charging tachiai. (As you say, it's just standard game theory.) Back when the typical tachiai involved lighter contact and was mostly just a precursor to settling into a mutual grip position, there was little point in getting fully out of the way because it conferred little to no advantage. So in that sense, henka is seen as an attempt to avoid a regular, traditional confrontation.

It's not alone in being seen as bad sumo - even rikishi who specialize in normal tsuki-oshi (pushing/thrusting) sumo have to live with the "they're doing that because they're not good enough for proper mawashi-based sumo" stereotype. Those attitudes have declined somewhat over the last 20-ish years because tsuki-oshi is now extremely common (think baseball again, post-deadball era when the home run became more important vis-a-vis traditional station-to-station play), but some of it still persists. In that sense, henka is just the most "advanced" technique that's seen as bad sumo, it's not in a class of its own.

Not to drag the thread off-topic, but for another version of "bad sumo", I'll mention ol' cult fave Asanowaka, who spent the last half-decade (if not more) of his 12-year sekitori career mostly having bouts like this:

Clearly not a henka, but a very defensive tachiai completely designed to set up a backpedalling pulldown.

(For newer fans: Yes, folks, that's what the web stream used to look like until about 2010...)

Edited March 29, 2016 by Asashosakari

[yorikiried by fate 1,987]

Did we already discuss henka-as-educational-action? This is somehow to be placed in the respect category. Hakuho himself famously henkaed Kisenosato not so many moons ago, after the latter chose to try some mindgames (staredown plus false starts) with the Yokozuna. In that context even the henka-critical Western audience (here) somewhat agreed that he had it coming, so what?

This of course is a subniche next to stuff like extra shoves for dissenters or opponents who had the balls to actually win the previous bout against a higher ranking rikishi.

Hakuho's current henka triggered the hisses because it was against a fellow Yokozuna AND it was yusho-deciding AND it was playoff-denying (Japanese opponent!) AND it was in the final bout of the final day. He only could have generated more frowns by placing his wife on the dohyo. (Or laughing madly afterwards, or showing guts pose...)

Edited March 29, 2016 by yorikiried by fate

[kumasama 28]

I have built glicko2 estimation and predictions for sumo matches, and I wouldn't want to touch analysis of henka. The only way would to watch a lot of matches but I have no idea how you'd control for bias.

Off topic, but I was wondering if you maintain your glicko2 rankings and/or post them online? I was hoping to do my own during the summer when I have more time, so I'm really curious what parameters you used.

[kumasama 28]

Did we already discuss henka-as-educational-action? This is somehow to be placed in the respect category. Hakuho himself famously henkaed Kisenosato not so many moons ago, after the latter chose to try some mindgames (staredown plus false starts) with the Yokozuna. In that context even the henka-critical Western audience (here) somewhat agreed that he had it coming, so what?

This of course is a subniche next to stuff like extra shoves for dissenters or opponents who had the balls to actually win the previous bout against a higher ranking rikishi.

Hakuho's current henka triggered the hisses because it was against a fellow Yokozuna AND it was yusho-deciding AND it was playoff-denying (Japanese opponent!) AND it was in the final bout of the final day. He only could have generated more frowns by placing his wife on the dohyo. (Or laughing madly afterwards, or showing guts pose...)

This bout, perhaps?

http://www.youtube.com/embed/WrZW8LzPLks

Now there's a good bit of game theory for you!

Edited March 30, 2016 by kumasama

[Fukurou 534]

1. Winning isn't everything. Of course it's important for ranking (and therefore salary) and prize money, and winning tournaments is naturally a big deal. But there's a very strong culture in Sumo of doing things the right way (and in Japan generally, I'd say--you see all sorts of signs about correct behavior on the train, for example, or the proper way of taking a bath in a hot spring). And the "right way" for sumo is all about strength, power, moving forward, and humility. It goes well beyond the actual bouts, extending to how rikishiki behave, dress, etc. off the dohyo. It's a way of life. And the furore around Hakuho is probably more for late extra shoves than for the henka. There's even an official advisory committee which regularly nags the top guys on their sumo style and behavior. And bear in mind that sumo has its origins in shinto ritual and is still quasi-religious (but not in the western sense!).

Post-basho Hakuho said of his henka, "I found it regrettable myself. But however I did it, all I wanted was to hold the [Emperor’s] Cup in my hands.” Sounds an awful lot like winning is everything to Hakuho - the ends justify the means.

[kumasama 28]

1. Winning isn't everything. Of course it's important for ranking (and therefore salary) and prize money, and winning tournaments is naturally a big deal. But there's a very strong culture in Sumo of doing things the right way (and in Japan generally, I'd say--you see all sorts of signs about correct behavior on the train, for example, or the proper way of taking a bath in a hot spring). And the "right way" for sumo is all about strength, power, moving forward, and humility. It goes well beyond the actual bouts, extending to how rikishiki behave, dress, etc. off the dohyo. It's a way of life. And the furore around Hakuho is probably more for late extra shoves than for the henka. There's even an official advisory committee which regularly nags the top guys on their sumo style and behavior. And bear in mind that sumo has its origins in shinto ritual and is still quasi-religious (but not in the western sense!).

Post-basho Hakuho said of his henka, "I found it regrettable myself. But however I did it, all I wanted was to hold the [Emperor’s] Cup in my hands.” Sounds an awful lot like winning is everything to Hakuho - the ends justify the means.

I hadn't seen this quote... I must say, it makes me even more disappointed than I was before. But even if Hakuho is personally all about winning, that doesn't mean there aren't higher expectations placed on him (and other top rikishi) by the kyokai and Japanese society generally. For example, when he first got his tsuna there were all sorts of discussions about hinkaku and how he had it while Asashoryu was lacking in that department. Naturally, there was/is a wide range of opinion, but I remember that a lot of my Japanese coworkers at the time felt that Hakuho was supposed to be the good boy who would give sumo a new, clean face. Of course that's a grossly oversimplified story and, yeah, reality intervenes. But whatever Hakuho personally feels, expectations are placed upon him.

My point has been all along that there are two (largely) unrelated issues here. One is whether henkas confer a tactical advantage and how often and in what circumstances they should (or shouldn't) be used (the OP's original questions). This could be approached as a statistical/game theory problem, and I'd love to read a good analysis by someone with a lot more sumo knowledge than I have. The other issue is to what extant and why and by whom henkas are discouraged--and that seems to me to be a sociological question. Again, I'd love to see survey data or something like that, if anyone knows of any. But it seems rather wrongheaded to try to answer the second question using the methodology suited to the first or to try to answer the first question stripped of the context given by the second.

Add to that the tendency of non-Japanese media to treat everything related to Japan as bizarre and inexplicable and my personal opinion that 538 too often passes off a bit of number crunching as substantive analysis, and perhaps you'll see why my hopes are not high for the proposed article.

Edited March 30, 2016 by kumasama

[kumoryu 88]

I'm an avid reader of the 538 blog, so I'm really happy to see your interest in sumo.

It looks like this short-lived blogger tried to do something like this, once: http://sumo-analysis.blogspot.jp/

It might be worth trying to contact him/her to find out if they had a methodology.

One thing you will need to define if you're serious about this is whether you're just looking at makuuchi, or are going all the way down the banzuke?

In terms of statistical analysis and the tools available, I guess bout length is pretty much the only readily-available tool; of course it won't automatically pinpoint henka, but it'll give an easily quantifiable structure against which to make comparisons and you could use it as a kind of rule-of-thumb -- where there's a successful henka, the bout will be over pretty soon, so you could relatively easily find a percentage of bouts where there certainly wasn't a successful henka. Obviously, henka won't always be successful, and bouts can be over quickly even without a henka, but it's maybe a start in terms of eliminating a lot of bouts from consideration.

The parallel to henka that comes to my mind is mankading in cricket -- perfectly within the "laws" of the game, but frowned on as being outside the spirit. Of course mankading is very rare compared to henka, but it generates a huge wave of controversy when someone does it. I guess the phrase "it's just not cricket" is a way of understanding hinkaku or its absence.

[skepticalsports 12]

2. Are there certain kimarite that pretty much mean “henka," and vice versa? or are they independent?

They're not independent, but a simple look at kimarite decisions would be meaningless. Many henka lead to a finish by hikiotoshi (pull down), but loads of non-henka bouts do as well, simply because pulling down your opponent is a very common move, which can be set up at nearly any stage of a bout.

Other henka might lead to something completely different, because the henka "victim" didn't lose right away, but his opponent managed to get an advantageous position to his side or in his back, and initiates a different coup de grace (throw, push-out from behind, etc.).

Then there are bouts like Hakuho-Harumafuji which have a finish that is basically indescribable in kimarite terms (there's none for "disoriented rikishi couldn't control his momentum and pretty much ran out of the dohyo on his own"), and they just slap something on it that - at best - is loosely related to the initial move. Yesterday, they went with tsukiotoshi (thrust-down), but you're not going to find much resemblance between Hakuho's tsukiotoshi and either this one or this one, both from the day before.

Edit: And apropos that Daishomaru-Sadanoumi bout, we see two added complications right away. Did Sadanoumi henka? It wasn't an outright side-step, but also (much) less than full contact. And if it was a henka, was it instrumental in his victory? It didn't really work and he almost got pushed out before his last-ditch slapdown at the edge still gave him the win.

Thanks for your helpful responses. I tried DMing you and it didn't work, but if you'd like to be quoted in my article, email me morrisb at fivethirtyeight.

[skepticalsports 12]

Thanks for your response. My article is not "about" henka, but the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy attracting so much derision is a bit foreign to American sports fans. That the most successful wrestler of the present (and arguably ever) is sort of "in trouble" for them makes it that much more interesting. Hence the investigation. And if you notice the pattern in my questions, I'm particularly interested in reasons why the move is frowned upon other than just "it's a weird tradition" -- e.g., whether it provides an "unfair" advantage.

Yeah, this pretty much confirms my fears.

"the phenomenon of a legal and seemingly game-theoretically important strategy" = Why don't they jump out of the way more?

"foreign to American sports fan" = Hey look at the weird foreign stuff!

"game-theoretically" "whether it provides an "unfair" advantage" = Let's throw a bit of math at it and pretend we understood something!

Of course henkas work. That's why they happen. Now, I'd be fascinated to read a good statistical analysis of henka usage and a good game theoretical analysis of tachiai tactics, but quantifying the efficacy of henkas (which is what all your original questions were about) is totally irrelevant to why they're frowned upon. That is "a weird tradition", or to say it in a less demeaning way, it's cultural. There have already been some great replies on this, so I'll just throw in my 2 yen.

1. Winning isn't everything. Of course it's important for ranking (and therefore salary) and prize money, and winning tournaments is naturally a big deal. But there's a very strong culture in Sumo of doing things the right way (and in Japan generally, I'd say--you see all sorts of signs about correct behavior on the train, for example, or the proper way of taking a bath in a hot spring). And the "right way" for sumo is all about strength, power, moving forward, and humility. It goes well beyond the actual bouts, extending to how rikishiki behave, dress, etc. off the dohyo. It's a way of life. And the furore around Hakuho is probably more for late extra shoves than for the henka. There's even an official advisory committee which regularly nags the top guys on their sumo style and behavior. And bear in mind that sumo has its origins in shinto ritual and is still quasi-religious (but not in the western sense!).

2. Henkas aren't usually loved by the fans (you'll find exceptions on this forum, though), especially in major bouts. I want to see great bouts where both guys really give it their all, lots of attacks and counter attacks, defense at the edge, a real battle. A henka feels like I'm cheated out of a bout. And let's face it, sumo is a business and needs bums on zabutons and eyeballs on TVs, so entertaining sumo is in the association's interest. The sumo association is also part of the ministry of eduction and has a duty of evangelize the sport--meaning that standards of behavior appropriate for a responsible position in society need to be maintained (see point #1).

So why are henkas tolerated at all, then?

1. They're a corrective and equalizer. Kotoshogiku (much as I like him) probably should never be a Yokozuna because he has an easily exploited weakness, which Yokozunas shouldn't have. Same goes for guys that get too big and have no agility.

2. They're not that common. Checking the old SumoFanMag data upthread, only seven guys pulled henkas more than once in 20 bouts; 12 had none at all for a year. I don't particularly like henkas, but there just aren't enough to bother me too much. (Unless it's in a bout I'm really looking forward to...)

3. Making a rule against them wouldn't be very practical (because of the definition problems discussed above), and it wouldn't be a very Japanese way of dealing with the problem, anyway. Social pressure can be used to deal with problems using more finesse. Kintamayama's translation from the ample men thread:

Hakkaku rijicho on the henka: "Winning is important, but there were probably many fans out there who wished to see good sumo.."

So to summarize, henkas are fair sumo, but they're not good sumo, and that's for cultural rather that strategic reasons. There are a few here and there to keep guys honest, but not enough (usually) to spoil the enjoyment of a day of sumo. If you only try to optimize wins using all legal tactics, you're going to completely miss the point.

I try to be as fair and accurate as possible (which is why I'm consulting with more knowledgeable people) but obv my first responsibility is to my audience.

This is an utterly bizarre thing for a journalist to write. The only way to be responsible to your audience is to be fair to and accurate about your subjects. Compromising one compromises both.

I apologize if that sentence is clumsy. I mean my responsibility is to my audience rather than die-hard sumo fans, not that I would sacrifice accuracy or fairness (nb you didn't quote the previous sentence which I thought made this more clear).

Again, the reason I came here is to try to get things right.

[Fukurou 534]

1. Winning isn't everything. Of course it's important for ranking (and therefore salary) and prize money, and winning tournaments is naturally a big deal. But there's a very strong culture in Sumo of doing things the right way (and in Japan generally, I'd say--you see all sorts of signs about correct behavior on the train, for example, or the proper way of taking a bath in a hot spring). And the "right way" for sumo is all about strength, power, moving forward, and humility. It goes well beyond the actual bouts, extending to how rikishiki behave, dress, etc. off the dohyo. It's a way of life. And the furore around Hakuho is probably more for late extra shoves than for the henka. There's even an official advisory committee which regularly nags the top guys on their sumo style and behavior. And bear in mind that sumo has its origins in shinto ritual and is still quasi-religious (but not in the western sense!).

Post-basho Hakuho said of his henka, "I found it regrettable myself. But however I did it, all I wanted was to hold the [Emperor’s] Cup in my hands.” Sounds an awful lot like winning is everything to Hakuho - the ends justify the means.

I hadn't seen this quote... I must say, it makes me even more disappointed than I was before.

Here's the link: Hakuho: 1st-day loss served as motivation

The Japan News (by Yomiuri Shimbun) on March 28

Edited March 30, 2016 by Fukurou

[Hakuyobaku 33]

Wow, you really did ram into the journalist guy. :) The henka is not his fault, neither is the exotisation of the Other cultures. The premise that a 'westerner' can't really deal with the other because x, y and z is exactly what exotisation comes from (they can't understand, the culture can only be seen from the inside, etc). We should allow for some cultural dialogue.

[kumasama 28]

I try to be as fair and accurate as possible (which is why I'm consulting with more knowledgeable people) but obv my first responsibility is to my audience.

This is an utterly bizarre thing for a journalist to write. The only way to be responsible to your audience is to be fair to and accurate about your subjects. Compromising one compromises both.

I apologize if that sentence is clumsy. I mean my responsibility is to my audience rather than die-hard sumo fans, not that I would sacrifice accuracy or fairness (nb you didn't quote the previous sentence which I thought made this more clear).

Again, the reason I came here is to try to get things right.

I owe you an apology. I'm afraid I read your words from an unfair perspective and so misunderstood them. Your questions hit the intersection of several things I feel very strongly about at a very stressful moment in my life (a statement of cause and effect, not an attempt to avoid responsibility!), and so I let myself get upset and expressed my concerns in a negative, destructive way rather than in a positive, constructive way.

Wow, you really did ram into the journalist guy. :) The henka is not his fault, neither is the exotisation of the Other cultures. The premise that a 'westerner' can't really deal with the other because x, y and z is exactly what exotisation comes from (they can't understand, the culture can only be seen from the inside, etc). We should allow for some cultural dialogue.

Cultural dialog is exactly what I want, but I've clearly made a mess of it! Westerners can absolutely understand Japanese culture, if it's presented fairly, but I think there's an unfortunate tendency for TV shows, articles, etc. to gawk at the weirdest bits and ignore everything else, and this is one of the things that leads to exoticization. My own first exposure to sumo was the old sumo digest on ESPN, which I think was a great bit of cultural outreach. I very much hope skepticalsports's article will follow that tradition.

I also feel very strongly that quantitative evidence is a wonderful thing, and qualitative understanding is a wonderful thing, but neither, on its own, is complete; they are best taken together so that one can inform the other.

[kumasama 28]

1. Winning isn't everything. Of course it's important for ranking (and therefore salary) and prize money, and winning tournaments is naturally a big deal. But there's a very strong culture in Sumo of doing things the right way (and in Japan generally, I'd say--you see all sorts of signs about correct behavior on the train, for example, or the proper way of taking a bath in a hot spring). And the "right way" for sumo is all about strength, power, moving forward, and humility. It goes well beyond the actual bouts, extending to how rikishiki behave, dress, etc. off the dohyo. It's a way of life. And the furore around Hakuho is probably more for late extra shoves than for the henka. There's even an official advisory committee which regularly nags the top guys on their sumo style and behavior. And bear in mind that sumo has its origins in shinto ritual and is still quasi-religious (but not in the western sense!).

Post-basho Hakuho said of his henka, "I found it regrettable myself. But however I did it, all I wanted was to hold the [Emperor’s] Cup in my hands.” Sounds an awful lot like winning is everything to Hakuho - the ends justify the means.

I hadn't seen this quote... I must say, it makes me even more disappointed than I was before.

Here's the link: Hakuho: 1st-day loss served as motivation

The Japan News (by Yomiuri Shimbun) on March 28

Thanks!

[Irakusamaru 77]

The parallel to henka that comes to my mind is mankading in cricket -- perfectly within the "laws" of the game, but frowned on as being outside the spirit. Of course mankading is very rare compared to henka, but it generates a huge wave of controversy when someone does it. I guess the phrase "it's just not cricket" is a way of understanding hinkaku or its absence.

This is a really good comparision! I realise that part of why I enjoy sumo is the unspoken sense of "sportsmanship" that lies under it. As you said, cricket has (or had) this too, but it is gradually being eroded by the drive to "win", and to some degree, it seems sumo will probably go the same way. Which is a shame, because for me sport is about the struggle, not just the numbers at the end. Personally, when playing sport, I'd rather have an epic battle that ends in a loss, than an easy win. Participating to your utmost is the best victory.

[CT3* 331]

Did we already discuss henka-as-educational-action? This is somehow to be placed in the respect category. Hakuho himself famously henkaed Kisenosato not so many moons ago, after the latter chose to try some mindgames (staredown plus false starts) with the Yokozuna. In that context even the henka-critical Western audience (here) somewhat agreed that he had it coming, so what?

Baruto once did the same thing to Kisenosato. In both instances, Kisenosato pretty much had it coming. And for me, it made both of those henkas satisfying to watch.

[Kuroyama 715]

I would like to remind everyone -- yet again -- that Hakuho secured the first yusho of his tsuna run with a henka against Asashoryu in their kettei-sen match. Has that made him any less worthy of a yokozuna? If a henka really is contrary to the spirit of the game, why not?

Edited April 2, 2016 by Kuroyama

[rzombie1988 157]

I would like to remind everyone -- yet again -- that Hakuho secured the first yusho of his tsuna run with a henka against Asashoryu in their kettei-sen match. Has that made him any less worthy of a yokozuna? If a henka really is contrary to the spirit of the game, why not?

You can go all day on bogus arguments as "_____ pulled a henka on _____ so now it's okay".

I'm not a fan of henka's but as long as they keep on working people are going to use them unfortunately. I think they are cheap moves that aren't good sumo and ruin tournaments. I would not be surprised to see them happening more and more as people keep getting away with it.

As for sports comparisons, it reminds me a lot of in cycling when someone goes down or has a bike problem and a competitor will speed up to get a cheap advantage ala Contador on Shleck at the Tour.

Edited April 3, 2016 by rzombie1988

[Kuroyama 715]

Yeah, and you can go on calling arguments "bogus" all day. That doesn't make them bogus.

At the very least, I showed that it's well-established that Hakuho has the henka in his repertoire, and that he's not shy about pulling it out when he's desperate or highly motivated. And in this case he was facing an opponent more likely to beat him than anyone else he'd faced. (Not that it was very likely, but if I'm not mistaken Harumafuji has a better record against him than most.)

[Gurowake 3,872]

Harumafuji is the only rikishi still around facing Hakuho regularly who has won at least a third of his matches against him, and for their career series has won somewhere close to 40%. The next closest among the top ranks in winning percentage against Hakuho are Terunofuji and Kisenosato, both around 25%, although with far fewer matches against the former. So it's very clear that Harumafuji is the opponent that Hakuho should fear the most.