2010 Yushos - Which ranks will win them?

[Jejima 1,415]

Hi everyone!

It is that time of year for some annual polls.

First up, which ranks will win the yusho?

In 2009, five yushos went to Yokozunas, and one went to an Ozeki, but how about for 2010?

Past equivalent polls....

2009

2008

(I'll be spacing out the posting of the other polls)

[Jejima 1,415]

I've voted five for Yokozuna, and one for below Ozeki (I'm thinking Baruto). Although, I think it is just as likely for the Yokozuna (well, Hakuho really) to do the clean sweep next year - however, there is often a basho where something interesting happens, and I don't know whether that would be from Osh, Harry or Bart, so I plumped for 'Bart' being the eternal optimist....

[Washuyama 641]

I voted for 4-1-1.

Hakuho-3

Asa-1

Kotooshu or Harumafuji - 1

Baruto (Unless Tochinoshin goes on a rampage toward ozeki first, but I don't think it will happen)

That being said, I still honestly believe Hakuho could take all 6 yusho. He's in his prime and although Asa, HMF, Baruto, and the Koto boys give him good bouts, none can beat him when "he's on."

[Barang 0]

I also voted 4-1-1

I hope that Baruto finally gets first Yusho and Ozeki promotion.

[Kintamayama 45,530]

5-1. Harumafuji.

[Asojima 2,874]

5-1. Harry or Osh. This will be Asa's final strong year. He will start to fade sharply in July. Haku will have a least one basho where he is limited by an injury. Harry or Osh will sneak in for one, possibly two yushos.

[Asashosakari 19,668]

5-1 for me, too. I'll go with Osh as the ozeki...he's been looking really good the last few times out, even when he didn't seem to be completely injury-free, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him catch lightning in a bottle once more as he did in his first yusho. Might take a basho where at least one of the yokozuna isn't up to par, but as Asojima says that's more likely than not.

I'd like Jejima to review his Harumafuji predictions from a year ago. (Sigh...)

Edited November 30, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Jejima 1,415]

I'd like Jejima to review his Harumafuji predictions from a year ago. ;-)

That's a different poll, but as you asked so kindly, I predicted that Harumafuji had the potential to make Yokozuna in 2009.

And he did have the potential. (Sigh...)

My prediction (if you read the LONG thread) was that he would have a good chance of winning a yusho in 2009, and if he won one, then my prediction for the promotion involved Harry going into the last few days of the tsunatori basho with just one (or two) losses before meeting his fellow countrymen Yokozuna over the last couple of days, when this could have 'helped' him a little in his Yokozuna quest.

He won the yusho (14-1) in May. Then, in July, he already was out of the promotion picture with three losses when he met his fellow Mongolians - losses that included 'hatakikomis' to Aran and Kotomitsuki. So if Aran had not henka'ed him on day 5, my scenario might have played out.....

As to next year? Well, my scenario for 2009 could still happen, but over the last two basho, something seems to have cooled in Harry, so I no longer see him to be likely for a yusho in 2010, which is the necessary first step.

[Asashosakari 19,668]

And he did have the potential.

I'd argue he had the opportunity, not the potential; much like Kotooshu after his yusho actually. Going only 45-30 (hey, kun-roku ozeki!) in the other five basho has been pretty clear evidence of that.

He won the yusho (14-1) in May. Then, in July, he already was out of the promotion picture with three losses when he met his fellow Mongolians - losses that included 'hatakikomis' to Aran and Kotomitsuki. So if Aran had not henka'ed him on day 5, my scenario might have played out.....

Yep, that leaves only 27 other losses to be justified. ;-)

[Jejima 1,415]

And he did have the potential.

I'd argue he had the opportunity, not the potential; much like Kotooshu after his yusho actually. Going only 45-30 (hey, kun-roku ozeki!) in the other five basho has been pretty clear evidence of that.

He won the yusho (14-1) in May. Then, in July, he already was out of the promotion picture with three losses when he met his fellow Mongolians - losses that included 'hatakikomis' to Aran and Kotomitsuki. So if Aran had not henka'ed him on day 5, my scenario might have played out.....

Yep, that leaves only 27 other losses to be justified. ;-)

Well, I think (as I said in the other thread), that our opinions on the matter were not that different - except that mine were a bit more rose-tinted than yours (opportunity vs potential).

I don't think I need to justify the other losses.

Once more.....

I said that I thought that Harry would have a good chance of taking a yusho - he did.

I said that should that happen, he would have an excellent opportunity in the following basho to become Yok due to the good relationships he has with the current Yokozunas, if he were to go into the last few days of the basho with the possibility of the promotion still on the cards. Due to his loss against bugbear Kotoshogiku on day 3, compounded by the henka by Aran on day 5, this scenario did not play out. Now, if Harry had won one of those two bouts, we could have seen whether my prediction played out or not. Unfortunately we will never know. I was not expecting Harry to dominate all the bashos (now that would be silly), but I did say that I thought he had it in him to win one yusho (he did), and if he were to win that one, should things fall into place to set him up for the last few days of the subsequent basho, he would have good chances to get the wins required.

This didn't happen - but (I hope you'll concede), it might have happened.

Since his tsunatori basho, something seems to have happened to Harry - he has lost his confidence, or something, this is why I have not put him down for a yusho for next year.

However, should he win a yusho in 2010 (which I think is now an outside possibility), I will stick with my previous prediction, that should he in line for promotion during the subsequent basho going into the last three days, he is likely to get the wins necessary from the other Yokozunas (provided they are both active) to get his tsuna.

May we put this discussion to rest until that scenario occurs again? Or, continue it in a more suitable thread (don't worry, the more appropriate thread will be opened soon with the new Harry poll :-))

Hopefully, this threads will be used to discuss who we see as yusho winners for next year.

[Asashosakari 19,668]

That was a lot more of a response than I expected my half-joking comment to trigger. ;-)

Since his tsunatori basho, something seems to have happened to Harry - he has lost his confidence, or something, this is why I have not put him down for a yusho for next year.

Well, that's where I disagree. I don't see any change. He went 8-7, 10-5 before the yusho performance (note: only 6-3 against opponents below ozeki in that 10-5), neither with particularly great sumo, then went 9-6 in his tsunatori, and since then just two more basho have passed. Both 9-6 again, the latter one while he was reportedly carrying an injury. Looks like a remarkably consistent, typical ozeki-level rikishi to me, with enough weaknesses to be consistently exploited by at least a couple of low-rankers each basho, who simply had one big outlier (that I didn't think was going to occur, admittedly). Perhaps you'll concede that I was correct in predicting that his performance level during the ozeki run couldn't simply be extrapolated into the future. (His Elo rating development since that discussion would be interesting, too...)

However, should he win a yusho in 2010 (which I think is now an outside possibility), I will stick with my previous prediction, that should he in line for promotion during the subsequent basho going into the last three days, he is likely to get the wins necessary from the other Yokozunas (provided they are both active) to get his tsuna.

I didn't want to say it last year because I was harping enough on the performance issue, but you're implying a remarkably mean streak to the two yokozuna here. I'm pretty sure everyone involved realizes that gifting a tsuna to Harumafuji is just about the worst thing they can do to his career in the near future. Frankly, that was no less true last year than it is now, rose-coloured glasses notwithstanding. We're not talking about Kotomitsuki going 6-0 against Kaio and Taikai in a late-career ozeki run; sucking at the yokozuna level carries a much stiffer penalty (in terms of reputation) than doing so in a possibly undeserved ozeki slot.

But yes, apologies for dragging the thread off-topic, I wasn't sure if this issue was going to come up again.

Edited December 1, 2009 by Asashosakari

[kaiguma 0]

I voted 4-2.

Hak: 3

Asa: 1

Osh: 1

Haru: 1

I don't expect Baruto to win one but he's maybe 50/50 to actually make it to ozeki by year's end. And good point that even Tochinoshin could make it if his momentum continues. For that matter if Kisenosato or any of the others can "turn the corner" and leave shenanigans behind, we may not see it coming...

And don't forget that Miyabiyama finished with a jun-yusho and had a very strong one in 2006! ;-)

EDIT: why "less than 1" and not zero?

Edited December 1, 2009 by kaiguma

[Asashosakari 19,668]

For that matter if Kisenosato or any of the others can "turn the corner" and leave shenanigans behind, we may not see it coming...

Since I just posted about it in the journalists thread - although 2010 won't be it yet, I wouldn't be surprised to see another chaotic free-for-all period in the near future. As I've done for a while I strongly doubt Asashoryu will see his 32nd birthday as an active rikishi (and quite possibly not even his 31st), and presumably even Kaio and probably also Kotomitsuki will be done by the end of 2011 at the latest. Add the fact that Hakuho, for all his apparent invincibility in pure talent terms, already seems just a little bit more brittle physically than Shoryu was at the same age, and around a year and a half, two years from now we just might have another window of opportunity opening up for various guys who may have gotten stuck behind the old guard for too long already, much like Kaio/Musoyama/Tochiazuma had in the 1990s.

In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if the corresponding poll for 2011 will be much more intriguing than this one. Almost certainly the one for 2012 will be.

[Jejima 1,415]

EDIT: why "less than 1" and not zero?

My sense of humour, I'm afraid. (Clapping wildly...)

[Jejima 1,415]

Quick response before we can continue (if need be) in the new Harry poll.

Perhaps you'll concede that I was correct in predicting that his performance level during the ozeki run couldn't simply be extrapolated into the future. (His Elo rating development since that discussion would be interesting, too...)

I am more than happy to concede that, (but I don't think I ever argued otherwise.) My Yokozuna potential was based on other stuff, listed above. I too would be interested to hear from Doitsuyama about the new Elo rating.

I didn't want to say it last year because I was harping enough on the performance issue, but you're implying a remarkably mean streak to the two yokozuna here. I'm pretty sure everyone involved realizes that gifting a tsuna to Harumafuji is just about the worst thing they can do to his career in the near future.

Very good points. However, I am not sure whether rikishi would think that far. Further, I would not say that the Yokozuna wins would be 'gifted', should Harry ever find himself in a tsunatori basho, going into the last few days with promotion still a possibility, rather that they would be in a different mindset. I.e. they would not 'mind' losing so much to a good friend, and fellow countryman. I think this, (plus Harry's determination) would be enough to get him the promotion.

[01010101 0]

Hak - 3

Asa - 2

Haru - 1

[kaiguma 0]

EDIT: why "less than 1" and not zero?

My sense of humour, I'm afraid. :-O

Oh, sorry! (Being unsure...)

It just wasn't as funny as "not a sausage" (Wearing a paperbag...)

Edited December 2, 2009 by kaiguma

[Asashosakari 19,668]

Very good points. However, I am not sure whether rikishi would think that far. Further, I would not say that the Yokozuna wins would be 'gifted', should Harry ever find himself in a tsunatori basho, going into the last few days with promotion still a possibility, rather that they would be in a different mindset. I.e. they would not 'mind' losing so much to a good friend, and fellow countryman. I think this, (plus Harry's determination) would be enough to get him the promotion.

I'm reminded of 14-0 Asashoryu (already having secured the yusho on Day 14) losing his Nagoya 2006 senshuraku bout to 12-2 Hakuho, who was on tsunatori at the time. The result was, despite years-long hints that 13-2 records may be considered "yusho-equivalent" again, that Hakuho's possible promotion wasn't even discussed, let alone rejected in a vote. I've seen rumours in more than one place that this was chiefly due to a general feeling that the senshuraku win may not have been quite kosher. I have no opinion on the matter, and perhaps the bout was totally clean, but the notion was definitely circulating.

I have little doubt that that would be a problem again, should Harumafuji indeed have a "stunning" come-from-behind victory with late-basho wins against both yokozuna. Perhaps having (presumably) won two yusho in a row would still override it, but the YDC certainly won't play along with just any bullshit if there's a clear impression that the Mongolians are gaming the system for reasons of ethnic loyalty. (And yes, quite possibly the YDC would turn a blind eye if three Japanese rikishi were doing it, but that's hardly a scenario to worry about at this point...)

In other words, Harumafuji better plan on going 15-0 in his tsunatori like Hakuho did, or alternatively try to have it while both yokozuna are out injured.

Edited December 2, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Randomitsuki 2,843]

(His Elo rating development since that discussion would be interesting, too...)

Hey, since some of you probably got used to it, I have kept it in a graphical format :-O

This is based on the Elo numbers that I currently use:

Edited December 3, 2009 by Randomitsuki

[Asashosakari 19,668]

This is based on the Elo numbers that I currently use:

But by now we know better about his strength and our assessment of his future should be closer to his current rating than his rating before Aki (which is what you are tending to use).

If I'm reverse-engineering your 1 in 150 from above correctly, that means Ama was approximately a .610 (!) rikishi before his most recent two basho [Aki and Kyushu 2008], and after a very improbable run of 30 bouts he's now about .72 (halfway between the good-torikumi/bad-torikumi numbers of .71 and .74 you mentioned). Is it really so outrageous to regress that back by about one-half to arrive at an expected winning percentage of .67 going forward, at least for the next year? Frankly, I feel more sure of my assumptions now than I did before you introduced those numbers.

Gee, he did regress back to about half-way between his post-Nagoya and post-Kyushu numbers. Colour me not quite shocked.

(And of course he went 59-31 = .656 this year, even including the 14-1 outlier.)

I'm looking forward to having this exact same debate with somebody after Baruto's ozeki promotion. :-O

[kaiguma 0]

Nice graph! :-O

Can we get regular updates of this information?

[Jejima 1,415]

I'm looking forward to having this exact same debate with somebody after Baruto's ozeki promotion. :-O

Not from me, as there are currently no Estonian Yokozunas to make it easier for Baruto. For him, I'd wait until he is consistently able to defeat the Yokozunas. For 2010, I am hoping he'll defeat Ashoryu at least twice, and Hakuho at least once. That'd be a start (Wearing a paperbag...)

[Raishu 208]

3 Hak

1 Asa

1 Haruma

1 sekitori of your choice :-)

[Fay 1,677]

4 Hakuho

1 Kotooshu

1 Kakuryu :-)

[Oshirokita 192]

5 Y (4 Hak, 1 Asa)

1 O (Osh)

0