GTB Kyushu Basho 2025 - 334 entries - the line is dead.

[Fashiritētā 213]

Onosata Y1E          Hoshoryu Y1W

Kotozakura O1E

Aonishiki S1E         Oho S1W

Takanosho K1E      Takayasu K1W

Hakuoho      M1.     Walatakakage

Kirishima.     M2.    Wakamotoharu

Hiradoumi.   M3.     Tamawashi

Oshoma.       M4.     Ura

Kusano.        M5.     Atamifuji

Onokatsu.     M6.     Shodai

Shishi.            M7.    Churanoui

Abi.                M8.      Kinbozan

Midorifuji.      M9.     Tobizaru

Daieisho.       M10.   Fujinokawa

Kotoshoho.    M11.   Roga

Ichiyamamoto. M12.  Mitakeumi

Tomokaze.        M13.  Tokihayate

Ryuden.            M14.    Gonoyama

Meisei.           M15.  Shonnanoumi

Sadanoumi.   M16.  Asskoryu

Oshoumi.        M17.  Nishikfuji

Chiyoshoma.   M18

[Reonito 1,781]

2 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

Shishi            M7.    Churanoumi

Shishi at 7e is a spicy pick.

[Fashiritētā 213]

2 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Shishi at 7e is a spicy pick.

I was having trouble with his placing , i went with Spicy , i will probably get burned.

[Kintamayama 47,223]

Takayasu at KW (precedent!! precedent!!) and Wakamotoharu before Hakuouhou. Another 4-11 coming up.

[Unkonoyama 105]

8 hours ago, Fashiritētā said:

M16.  Asskoryu

6-9 isn't that bad 

[Andreas21 221]

Interesting to see the similarities and difference between the picks! Here is my take:

[Tigerboy1966 1,632]

Kotoshoho is the really tricky one. We have very different views on how far his jo'i schedule for Aki will be taken into account. I have him at 12w, the same as Reonito. If Asashosakari is right and he is at 10w it will really spoil my day.

[Reonito 1,781]

6 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Wakamotoharu before Hakuouhou

I'll eat my hat if this happens

[Gurowake 4,151]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I'll eat my hat if this happens

The only way it happens in my mind is if WMH ends up as Komusubi, which I think is at least within the realm of possibility (not that I think anyone would actually go that way with their pick) given https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201607&heya=-1&shusshin=-1&spr=on&sps=on having them promote to Komusubi someone with sanyaku experience over someone without when there was a full rank separation by the numbers.  It's not entirely the same, as in that case it was more of the same kind of thing as with Aonishiki - Mitakeumi was extremely new and not in the joi, and they didn't want to give him the promotion most likely.  Hakuoho has many more Makuuchi basho and now has multiple KKs in the joi, so I don't think they're as biased against him to promote someone with a slightly weaker claim with sanyaku experience, but obviously the lack of sanyaku experience is often a factor in these things and it's hard to know exactly how much.

Edited Tuesday at 16:23 by Gurowake

[Kintamayama 47,223]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I'll eat my hat if this happens

Of course it won't. 

[Reonito 1,781]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

The only way it happens in my mind is if WMH ends up as Komusubi, which I think is at least within the realm of possibility (not that I think anyone would actually go that way with their pick) given https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201607&heya=-1&shusshin=-1&spr=on&sps=on having them promote to Komusubi someone with sanyaku experience over someone without when there was a full rank separation by the numbers.  It's not entirely the same, as in that case it was more of the same kind of thing as with Aonishiki - Mitakeumi was extremely new and not in the joi, and they didn't want to give him the promotion most likely.  Hakuoho has many more Makuuchi basho and now has multiple KKs in the joi, so I don't think they're as biased against him to promote someone with a slightly weaker claim with sanyaku experience, but obviously the lack of sanyaku experience is often a factor in these things and it's hard to know exactly how much.

Yeah, they're not going to leapfrog an M4 over an M2 who is ahead by the numbers, especially given how little room the M2 has for promotion as it is.

[Andreas21 221]

On 21/10/2025 at 10:14, Kintamayama said:

Takayasu at KW (precedent!! precedent!!) 

I thought about this. Although I do not believe that previous over- or under-promotion is a significant factor, this case is an exception because 6-9 K1e to K1w is really heavy.

[Kintamayama 47,223]

36 minutes ago, Andreas21 said:

I thought about this. Although I do not believe that previous over- or under-promotion is a significant factor, this case is an exception because 6-9 K1e to K1w is really heavy.

And an 8-7 from M2E doesn't warrant Hakuhou a place in sanyaku in place of a 7-8 Komusubi E Takayasu.. Weak record. A 9-6 from M2E probably, but 8-7? Weak. An 8-7 from M1 East? Probably. but from M2E? Weak. I read all that on Weak-ipedia.

Edited Wednesday at 12:16 by Kintamayama

[Reonito 1,781]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

And an 8-7 from M2E doesn't warrant Hakuhou a place in sanyaku in place of a 7-8 Komusubi E Takayasu.. Weak record. A 9-6 from M2E probably, but 8-7? Weak. An 8-7 from M1 East? Probably. but from M2E? Weak. I read all that on Weak-ipedia.

8-7 from M1e is an absolute stone-cold guarantee of promotion, at least as much as anything is in sumo. 9-6 from M2e (or even M1w) can get stuck at M1, but not when the alternative is a 7-8 K1e. 8-7 from M3e loses out to 7-8 K1e. In the current scenario though, it's a coin toss.

[Fashiritētā 213]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

8-7 from M1e is an absolute stone-cold guarantee of promotion, at least as much as anything is in sumo. 9-6 from M2e (or even M1w) can get stuck at M1, but not when the alternative is a 7-8 K1e. 8-7 from M3e loses out to 7-8 K1e. In the current scenario though, it's a coin toss.

They set the precedent with Takayasu 6-9 at K1E , so he should only go to K1W , by the numbers, and Hakuoho is out of luck.

I dont have the years of experience with the Banzuke , so take what i said with a grain of salt.

[Sumo Spiffy 664]

1 hour ago, Fashiritētā said:

They set the precedent with Takayasu 6-9 at K1E , so he should only go to K1W , by the numbers, and Hakuoho is out of luck.

I dont have the years of experience with the Banzuke , so take what i said with a grain of salt.

The precedent doesn't really matter here. If anything, the fact they did that is viewed as a reason to demote him to M1e now, because he squeaked back to K1e and then had another losing record.

I put Takayasu at K1w because, if the K1e -> K1w thing had never happened, I'm positive that's what they would do. I'm hoping the second losing record in three tournaments isn't enough reason to make them act differently.

[Reonito 1,781]

1 hour ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I put Takayasu at K1w because, if the K1e -> K1w thing had never happened, I'm positive that's what they would do. I'm hoping the second losing record in three tournaments isn't enough reason to make them act differently.

I always treat the banzuke as a Markov process (no memory beyond the just-completed basho, obviously excluding ozeki and yokozuna runs). It may well be that they look at a longer time frame on occasion, but I've seen no evidence that this happens in any manner that would have predictive value.

[Sumo Spiffy 664]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

I always treat the banzuke as a Markov process (no memory beyond the just-completed basho, obviously excluding ozeki and yokozuna runs). It may well be that they look at a longer time frame on occasion, but I've seen no evidence that this happens in any manner that would have predictive value.

Same, at least with respect to records. There are definitely times when it looks like who they're placing has some impact on where they go, so I'm not rejecting out of hand the possibility they bump Takayasu down for what would not be a good reason. But I will be surprised if it happens.

[Wamahada 63]

Anyone else with Hitoshi staying in Makuuchi?

[Jejima 1,494]

On 21/10/2025 at 01:49, Hakumadashi said:

 

First time entering GTB, after I started playing all the Superbanzuke games in Nagoya, I forgot GTB both times....

So this will be my last debut in such a game for maybe ever, and as such I took the honourable path of not looking at any predictions or discussion regarding ranks beforehand. I hope I haven't made any egregious mistakes, but if so I will accept it with Hinkaku and continue to do my brand of Banzuke making.

Good luck to everyone!

Are you playing Bench?

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

2 hours ago, Jejima said:

Are you playing Bench?

Time to read your own Banzuke

[Hakumadashi 14]

19 hours ago, Jejima said:

Are you playing Bench?

I missed the entry deadline for Aki because I entered all dailies on the Saturday and forgot that Bench has an earlier deadline. I've already set an alarm to remind me next time lol. I did enter Nagoya though, did decently, I think 10-5, but most importantly didn't lose to the drone I fought.

[Bunbukuchagama 974]

4 minutes ago, Hakumadashi said:

most importantly didn't lose to the drone I fought

That drone can be a menace, it almost won the yusho in my debut basho. 

[Wakawakawaka 217]

On 22/10/2025 at 13:49, Sumo Spiffy said:

The precedent doesn't really matter here. If anything, the fact they did that is viewed as a reason to demote him to M1e now, because he squeaked back to K1e and then had another losing record.

I put Takayasu at K1w because, if the K1e -> K1w thing had never happened, I'm positive that's what they would do. I'm hoping the second losing record in three tournaments isn't enough reason to make them act differently.

I put Hakuoho at K1w. My line of thinking, if a Komusubi goes 7-8 they should drop to M1, unless there is no suitable replacement. The 6-9 K1e>K1w debacle was because an M9 was just not considered a real person as far as sanyaku promotions goes. It was just too offensive. An 8-7 M2 is a perfectly palatable replacement.

[Bunbukuchagama 974]

7 hours ago, Wakawakawaka said:

if a Komusubi goes 7-8 they should drop to M1, unless there is no suitable replacement

But the definition of "suitable replacement" is always going to be subjective. You said "M9 isn't a real person" - but what if the K he replaces goes 5-10? 4-11? 0-15?