Invitation to Play GTB - May 2025 - 316 entries - RESULTS!!

[Fashiritētā 195]

35 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This one will take a while, it seems.

You never know , they could throw Takayasu a bone and put him in Sanyaku, plus the Onami brothers , as they have all had decent/solid Bashos in Sanyaku already.

Then again , maybe i need to drink more Saki.

[Pitinosato 123]

10 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Well, let's put it this way: 8 sanyaku now would be the most unexpected banzuke-related thing I can remember. 

in these 20 Years I play GTB  -for me-  there were things that have been much more unexpected than a 8-man-Sanyaku this time would be

[Whatta bout Sumo 14]

15 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

I don't see that channel. Maybe I'm not supposed to, and that's fine, but then I wonder why everyone else but me can see the image.

Hi, I gotchu. Hosting images from discord is often weird for people who are not in that server after a few days. This is happening in the GSB podcast patreon discord, so yea, you wouldn't see the channel if you are not in there. Here are the images hosted more solidly.

Edited April 24 by Whatta bout Sumo

[Asashosakari 19,941]

35 minutes ago, Whatta bout Sumo said:

Hi, I gotchu. Hosting images from discord is often weird for people who are not in that server after a few days.

As of a little over a year ago, cdn.discordapp.com URLs expire after 24 hours, so hotlinking a file like reonito did will inevitably break. For anyone that still saw the image later than that, it was from your local browser cache because you had accessed it within the 24 hours.

Edited April 24 by Asashosakari

[Whatta bout Sumo 14]

By the by, what I really liked about our little guessing community doing this consensus Banzuke is that we have a very large mixture of players. We have several GTB top performers like Goshobiyama and CaptainSmarta$$ and Asset, and we have several decent middle of the pack people ranking in the low 100's like me (Nanikitanohito), Wakatakasake and Kajuyanosho... and then we have some very new guessers just starting out like RevTrev and Phredd. So we form a "heya" of people who have all different experience levels with this game, and we learn from each other and discuss quite passionately basho by basho after the deadline day when we can all show our final guesses to each other, and then even more once the real Banzuke drops. So we're all improving bit by bit as well learning from each other. It's a great little gang.

There are some more people in the group too who did not have their submission screenshotted, so I'll add them after the Banzuke drops and the archives update with everyone's guess.

Edited April 24 by Whatta bout Sumo

[Reonito 1,613]

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

As of a little over a year ago, cdn.discordapp.com URLs expire after 24 hours, so hotlinking a file like reonito did will inevitably break.

I definitely need a tutorial on linking/embedding correctly on the forum!

[Gurowake 4,123]

On 23/04/2025 at 06:05, Yarimotsu said:

I played very early this time around and (my spreadsheet says I did but I can't remember if I) made what I now think is the Takayasu mistake. Finally figured how I should be doing the search for that precedent and there is no precedent. K1e 8-7 simply doesn't get denied by a maegashira.

I was going to say "this is a bit like saying that all our manned Mars missions have been successful - are there really any recent cases where there was competition between a K1e and a maegashira for that spot?" and in some ways it's true, but only for K1e specifically - I did find another somewhat recent counterexample that shows why many people think that Takayasu probably won't get to Sekiwake - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=20151 - where someone at precisely Takayasu's rank and record failed to take the spot from a K1w.  However, this was ten years ago, and back then I assumed it was impossible for a maegashira to jump over a KK Komusubi, but they disproved that soon after - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201711.  That specific banzuke is more recent, and shows that they will deny a KK Komusubi if the difference in wins is large enough.  I personally gave Takayasu more credit for his 12-3 M4e because it was almost entirely against the top 16 - only the bout against Churanoumi wasn't.  Ikioi (the Hatsu 2015 example) had a much weaker schedule because there were 4 more sanyaku, and thus I found that a more reasonable denial than what we have with Takayasu.  

I mean, I still admit that it's a very close call, and I won't be surprised to be wrong, but I think it's a closer call than what others believe, at least in my own mind.

Edited April 24 by Gurowake

[Bunbukuchagama 827]

8 hours ago, Pitinosato said:

in these 20 Years I play GTB  -for me-  there were things that have been much more unexpected than a 8-man-Sanyaku this time would be

Your sample size is way bigger than mine. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,539]

On 22/04/2025 at 16:39, Wakawakawaka said:

Here's my mild contribution to further that spirit, current 10+ basho KK streaks. Consecutive KK record all time is 29 held by both Asashosakari and Okisuruga.

Dammit. I would be on that list if it wasn't for my 7-8 in Aki 2024.

[Tigerboy1966 1,539]

On 21/04/2025 at 21:36, Wamahada said:

I went with an extra Sekiwake slot, this however might ruin my guess completely, who knows …

It's a high risk/high reward strategy.  You are probably wrong, but if you are right you are going to be right up there.

I will look forward our usual race to be the first to declare our scores.

[Gurowake 4,123]

I think the largest surprise was when Asanoyama was demoted from Ozeki - they made him a 3rd Sekiwake instead of not promoting someone like they typically do when an Ozeki gets demoted.  I don't think very many people anticipated that one, but it was recognized that it made sense, since Asanoyama was known to not be competing for a while.  Would I call that more unexpected than them creating a 3rd Komusubi (or Sekiwake)?  It's not a real fair comparison.  In some sense, yes, it was more unexpected beforehand, but only because the situation hadn't really ever happened before.  A 9-6 M1w is much more common than an Ozeki getting suspended and then demoted, and they haven't been given an extra spot in a long time, so it seems rather unexpected now.

Edited April 24 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,613]

I can't remember the details, but there was a banzuke for which the GTB selection stats showed only a couple of players had someone ranked where the banzuke committee put them...

[Jakusotsu 6,188]

7 hours ago, Reonito said:

I can't remember the details, but there was a banzuke for which the GTB selection stats showed only a couple of players had someone ranked where the banzuke committee put them...

Nishikifuji ?

(must have been a misclick by @Kachikoshi - he obviously meant Nishikigi instead)

Edited April 25 by Jakusotsu

[Kachikoshi 45]

9 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Nishikifuji ?

(must have been a misclick by @Kachikoshi - he obviously meant Nishikigi instead)

Oh wow. I need to be more careful.

[Reonito 1,613]

20 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I think the largest surprise was when Asanoyama was demoted from Ozeki - they made him a 3rd Sekiwake instead of not promoting someone like they typically do when an Ozeki gets demoted.  I don't think very many people anticipated that one, but it was recognized that it made sense, since Asanoyama was known to not be competing for a while.  Would I call that more unexpected than them creating a 3rd Komusubi (or Sekiwake)?  It's not a real fair comparison.  In some sense, yes, it was more unexpected beforehand, but only because the situation hadn't really ever happened before.  A 9-6 M1w is much more common than an Ozeki getting suspended and then demoted, and they haven't been given an extra spot in a long time, so it seems rather unexpected now.

This might be the one I was thinking of: Aki 2020, right after Terunofuji's comeback yusho in July, when he went from M17 to M1e, and only 3 players had that right, with the average guess off by a rank and a half.

[Gurowake 4,123]

41 minutes ago, Reonito said:

This might be the one I was thinking of: Aki 2020, right after Terunofuji's comeback yusho in July, when he went from M17 to M1e, and only 3 players had that right, with the average guess off by a rank and a half.

I was more focused on how many sanyaku they decided on.  I think if you look at more than that, you can find a bunch of instances where no one was right.

[Asashosakari 19,941]

Nishikifuji had one correct pick for Nagoya 2023.

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

On 24/04/2025 at 10:23, Gurowake said:

I was going to say "this is a bit like saying that all our manned Mars missions have been successful - are there really any recent cases where there was competition between a K1e and a maegashira for that spot?" and in some ways it's true, but only for K1e specifically - I did find another somewhat recent counterexample that shows why many people think that Takayasu probably won't get to Sekiwake - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=20151 - where someone at precisely Takayasu's rank and record failed to take the spot from a K1w.  However, this was ten years ago, and back then I assumed it was impossible for a maegashira to jump over a KK Komusubi, but they disproved that soon after - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201711.  That specific banzuke is more recent, and shows that they will deny a KK Komusubi if the difference in wins is large enough.  I personally gave Takayasu more credit for his 12-3 M4e because it was almost entirely against the top 16 - only the bout against Churanoumi wasn't.  Ikioi (the Hatsu 2015 example) had a much weaker schedule because there were 4 more sanyaku, and thus I found that a more reasonable denial than what we have with Takayasu.  

I mean, I still admit that it's a very close call, and I won't be surprised to be wrong, but I think it's a closer call than what others believe, at least in my own mind.

The thing I noticed about these situations was that, unless I missed one, it was always someone at M1/2 who got the jump on the komusubi. That makes a lot more sense, at least to me, because there's so little space for them to go up. From M4, Takayasu's getting an OK promotion either way, which is what tipped me towards Kirishima going to sekiwake. But I'll also not be shocked if I'm wrong.

[Reonito 1,613]

3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Nishikifuji had one correct pick for Nagoya 2023.

That one is interesting. The scatter is huge, and a bunch of people had him both higher and lower, but only one at the exact spot. 

[Reonito 1,613]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

I was more focused on how many sanyaku they decided on.  I think if you look at more than that, you can find a bunch of instances where no one was right.

I don't know about a bunch, but after Daieisho's yusho, no one had him at K2w. We usually have an inkling when the sanyaku count is in doubt, even if we don't get it right.

[Gurowake 4,123]

7 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

The thing I noticed about these situations was that, unless I missed one, it was always someone at M1/2 who got the jump on the komusubi. That makes a lot more sense, at least to me, because there's so little space for them to go up. From M4, Takayasu's getting an OK promotion either way, which is what tipped me towards Kirishima going to sekiwake. But I'll also not be shocked if I'm wrong.

I'll admit that I generally end up doing more "what I think is right" a bit too often.

[Reonito 1,613]

56 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I'll admit that I generally end up doing more "what I think is right" a bit too often.

A lot of this game is the struggle to separate what I would do from what I think they will do.

[Wamahada 61]

No extra sanyaku slot = rank 200 or lower for me (25 points)

Edited April 27 by Wamahada

[Tigerboy1966 1,539]

46 here I think. Worst score since May 2022. Blinking flip! Mind you I saw "Sinners" today so 27.04.2025 wasn't a complete disappointment.

[Kintamayama 45,974]

This is going to be a low-scoring affair. So many things I don't get, but what else is new.