Haru Basho 2019 Discussion [SPOILERS]

[Kaninoyama 1,879]

Today's Takayasu v. Takakeisho Torikumi has some serious implications. Both desperately need this win: one for a chance to secure Ozeki promotion, the other to stay in the Yusho race and secure his first tournament victory. 

As fans of both, I feel very conflicted.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Kaninoyama

[wys 55]

I don't want to sound like I am patting myself on the back, but what the heck, I am patting myself on the back. This is what I said about Takakeisho back in January in response to member Word20's quote: "I think Takakeisho is Ozeki materrial. As we have seen in the 5 last basho's Takakeisho has had above 10 wins in 4 basho's with 9 wins in the 3rd basho and there is only a few rikishi that has done it as Takakeisho."

 

On 27/01/2019 at 15:06, wys said:

Again, you can't simply rely on numbers alone. We can use numbers superficially and make a case for anything, but is it a strong case? One has to dig a little deeper and think more critically. No one would put much weight, if any, on his performance as a M10 and as a M3, in making a case for ozeki promotion. For example, as an M10 in May 2018, Takakeisho didn't face anyone above M6 and he lost his matches to rikishi from M9 through M12. Would this be consistent with an ozeki-level performer? Let's move forward to July 2018 where he competed as an M3.  Three of his 5 losses were at the hands of rikishi ranked lower than he was at M4, M6, and M7. Ozeki material? Not really.  And with the last three basho, not wanting to repeat myself, but Takakeisho has not shown that he can consistently challenge the top guys across the board. When he walks in the dohyo against guys like Kakuryu, Goeido, Mitakeumi, or Takayasu (not mentioning Hakuho because he's in a league of his own, even with reported injuries)  I don't have the confidence that Takakeisho can give these guys a run for their money. I don't get the feeling that the bout can swing either way. In fact, I feel with greater than 50% certainty he would lose. I hope the next basho can prove people like me wrong, since he is my fave, but as things stand now, I find it hard to justify an ozeki promotion.

 

If Takekeisho doesn't beat Takayasu today, even if he beats both Tochinoshin and Ichonojo, his chance of being promoted to ozeki is less than 50%.  I still stand by my words from January.  

Edited March 22, 2019 by wys

[Rocks 1,810]

7 minutes ago, wys said:

I don't want to sound like I am patting myself on the back, but what the heck, I am patting myself on the back.

Well, don't strain your arm or anything.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

9 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Today's Takayasu v. Takakeisho Torikumi has some serious implications. Both desperately need this win: one for a chance to secure Ozeki promotion, the other to stay in the Yusho race and secure his first tournament victory. 

As fans of both, I feel very conflicted.

Takayasu will get another shot at the yusho next time, whereas an Ozeki run needs three basho and if Takakeisho misses out this time he's possibly back to square one. Moreover, Takayasu's yusho challenge is out of his hands, so even if he wins he needs other results to go in his favour.

Thus you should cheer for Takakeisho.

[Kaninoyama 1,879]

2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Takayasu will get another shot at the yusho next time, whereas an Ozeki run needs three basho and if Takakeisho misses out this time he's possibly back to square one. Moreover, Takayasu's yusho challenge is out of his hands, so even if he wins he needs other results to go in his favour.

Thus you should cheer for Takakeisho.

Can't argue with that reasoning, but my dream scenario at this point would be:

1. Takayasu wins today, and everything falls in place for him to get his first yusho.
2. Takakeisho loses to Takayasu, but then wins his last 2 and that's enough to gain Ozeki promotion.
3. Tochinoshin somehow wins 2 of the last 3 to hang on to his Ozeki status.

Based on the remaining match-ups, is all of that even possible?

 

[Eikokurai 3,437]

5 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Can't argue with that reasoning, but my dream scenario at this point would be:

1. Takayasu wins today, and everything falls in place for him to get his first yusho.
2. Takakeisho loses to Takayasu, but then wins his last 2 and that's enough to gain Ozeki promotion.
3. Tochinoshin somehow wins 2 of the last 3 to hang on to his Ozeki status.

Based on the remaining match-ups, is all of that even possible?

 

Tochinoshin still has Kakuryu, Takakeisho and Tamawashi to face, so he can win two of three without directly affecting Takayasu or Takakeisho.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Eikokurai

[Rocks 1,810]

I've been watching the Juryo bouts and I have to say Hidenoumi has fought hard with good technique every match this basho. He's never been one of my favorites but I hope he KKs. He deserves it. 

 

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

Honestly I think Sato needs 11 wins at this point. He's dropped too many to those below him to give leeway. Going 2-3 against the YO doesn't make for a very strong case altogether. At this point his record needs to be 3-2, but he also needs to win out because he cannot afford to lose to a hiramaku.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

3 minutes ago, WAKATAKE said:

Honestly I think Sato needs 11 wins at this point. He's dropped too many to those below him to give leeway. Going 2-3 against the YO doesn't make for a very strong case altogether. At this point his record needs to be 3-2, but he also needs to win out because he cannot afford to lose to a hiramaku.

He's beaten every Maegashira he's faced and one of two Komusubi. His losses have come against a Komusubi, a Sekiwake (same rank), an Ozeki and a Yokozuna.

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

2 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

He's beaten every Maegashira he's faced and one of two Komusubi. His losses have come against a Komusubi, a Sekiwake (same rank), an Ozeki and a Yokozuna.

Don't forget that they look for quality of matches too. That's what made them nix his promotion the last time. The guys that have beaten him have gotten inside to his belt. Once he gives that up, he's been toast. Remember that they didn't promote Miyabiyama in his second attempt even though he had 34 wins. And as somebody else noted earlier, 13-11-10 isn't really a great way to walk into the party.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 minute ago, WAKATAKE said:

Don't forget that they look for quality of matches too. That's what made them nix his promotion the last time. The guys that have beaten him have gotten inside to his belt. Once he gives that up, he's been toast. Remember that they didn't promote Miyabiyama in his second attempt even though he had 34 wins. And as somebody else noted earlier, 13-11-10 isn't really a great way to walk into the party.

I was just responding to your point that he's dropped too many bouts to those below him. He hasn't. He's beaten pretty much everyone he's expected to beat as a Sekiwake.

[robnplunder 978]

5 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Maybe for you.  Toyonoshima doing poorly is a much bigger surprise to me.

I thought Toyonoshima would MK and he exceeded (!) my expectation.  

Another surprise of the basho?   Both Yokozuna is yet to go kyujo .

 

 

[Kaninoyama 1,879]

Something I'm NOT surprised about: Terutsuyoshi struggling mightily in his Makuuchi debut. I do believe that long term he'll be back and find some extended success at this level, but for now, it's back to Juryo for next basho. 

[robnplunder 978]

16 minutes ago, Kaninoyama said:

Something I'm NOT surprised about: Terutsuyoshi struggling mightily in his Makuuchi debut. I do believe that long term he'll be back and find some extended success at this level, but for now, it's back to Juryo for next basho. 

First time Makuuchi rikishi often does not do well.   I pegged him as someone who will go up and down between Makuuchi and Juryo.   Ditto for Ishiura, and Enho.  They have spirit but their lack of size will limit their rise.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

31 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

I thought Toyonoshima would MK and he exceeded (!) my expectation.  

Another surprise of the basho?   Both Yokozuna is yet to go kyujo .

 

 

I don’t think anyone has gone kyujo from makuuchi, have they? Chiyonokuni has been out from the start but nobody has dropped out (unless I just didn’t notice).

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

I don’t think anyone has gone kyujo from makuuchi, have they? Chiyonokuni has been out from the start but nobody has dropped out (unless I just didn’t notice).

Ikioi should be kyujo but I guess that is for another conversation.

[robnplunder 978]

1 hour ago, Eikokurai said:

I don’t think anyone has gone kyujo from makuuchi, have they? Chiyonokuni has been out from the start but nobody has dropped out (unless I just didn’t notice).

That's really a big surprise.  No kyujo other than Chiyonokuni.     This has been the most kyujo free basho in a while. 

[robnplunder 978]

Enho is KK, and there are two more matches to go.   I must admit, before the basho, I thought he is not likely to go KK from J2 position.   I look forward to how he does in Makuuchi.

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Shimanoumi is on an incredible run. He's looking at back-to-back juryo yusho. That's only been achieved 20 times before and the last guy to do it was Tochinoshin in 2014.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Eikokurai

[robnplunder 978]

13 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

Shimanoumi is on an incredible run.

31-5 going back 3 bashos.   I say that's a heck of a run.

Edited March 22, 2019 by robnplunder

[Eikokurai 3,437]

1 minute ago, robnplunder said:

31-5 going back 3 bashos.   I say that's a heck of a run.

Two more wins and they might make him Ozeki! :)

[robnplunder 978]

You know who else in on a run?  Tomokaze has gone 10 KK bashos in a row.  If he wins today, it will be 11 KK in a row.   I haven't seen that for a while.

[Akinomaki 41,783]

44 minutes ago, robnplunder said:

You know who else in on a run?  Tomokaze has gone 10 KK bashos in a row.  If he wins today, it will be 11 KK in a row.   I haven't seen that for a while.

Tomokaze was on nukenuke course to just make it on day 15, but yesterday won on the day he was "scheduled" to lose, and today was back to schedule as well http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi_basho.aspx?r=12427&b=201903

- now he can even still get double digits (and maybe a sansho)

Edited March 22, 2019 by Akinomaki

[Eikokurai 3,437]

Well, that's interesting. Yoshikaze has quietly reached 10 wins, and against Aoiyama of all people.

[Akinomaki 41,783]

The season was opened again for mono-ii and Mr. Head-Shimpan Fujishima gave a perfect display of a proper decision and flawless explanation