Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2014

[Asashosakari 20,207]

It's Day 10, so it's time to look at the comings and goings for the next rankings. That Goeido sure knows how to put together an ozeki run, eh?

More seriously though, it's a pretty standard basho at the top; the two sekiwake are doing well-ish and will likely get to stay in sanyaku at the very least, while the two komusubi are probably moving back down. High-flying Ikioi is in the driver's seat for any open slots, followed by the maegashira-hitto pair.

5-5 Goeido S Tochiozan 6-4

3-7 Yoshikaze K Chiyootori 3-7

5-5 Aoiyama M1 Takekaze 5-5

3-7 Chiyotairyu M2

5-5 Aminishiki M3

4-6 Endo M4 Toyonoshima 4-6

5-5 Shohozan M5 Ikioi 9-1

Today's results brought a lot of clarification in the lower maegashira ranks. 3 rikishi have quite a lot of work to do to avoid joining injured Chiyonokuni on the way to juryo, but everybody else is already safe or nearly so. That's going to make things a little easier here this time...

Then again, even Chiyonokuni's slot hasn't been claimed yet. Azumaryu is closest to a makuuchi return, with Kagamio and (a bit surprising, IMHO) Wakanosato next in line.

M9 Okinoumi 3-7 (1)

M10

M11 Chiyomaru 5-5 (o)

(3) 2-8 Takanoiwa M12 Jokoryu 6-4 (o)

(3) 3-7 Masunoyama M13

(1) 5-5 Gagamaru M14 Tokitenku 4-6 (3)

(o) 7-3 Kyokushuho M15 Sokokurai 7-3 (o)

(1) 6-4 Arawashi M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-8 (x)

(o) 8-2 Sadanoumi M17

(1) 7-3 Azumaryu J1 Daido 2-8 (x)

(3) 6-4 Sotairyu J2 Kagamio 7-3 (2)

(x) 3-7 Asahisho J3 Wakanosato 7-3 (2)

J4 Tamaasuka 6-4 (4)

(4) 6-4 Sadanofuji J5

J6

(4) 7-3 Homarefuji J7

J8

J9 Tokushinho 6-4 (x)

J10 Ichinojo 8-2 (5)

The bottom of the juryo division is teeming with demotion candidates for a change. Daikiho already dropped yesterday, while the returnee pair of Sakigake and Takanoyama can only afford one more loss. Higonojo, Yoshiazuma and former komusubi Wakakoyu are also struggling.

There's also no shortage of rikishi in the running for promotion. All the top 10 makushitans have managed to avoid the early MK and 4 of them are even kachikoshi already (on the strength of this and especially this). As only Daikiho's slot is available at the moment it's not yet possible to say who's done enough to ensure getting promoted.

In addition there's Tochinoshin as the wildcard - 7-0 will of course guarantee him promotion, but if many juryo rikishi drop even 6-1 might give him a shot this basho.

J5 Satoyama 3-7 (o)

J6

J7 Akiseyama 3-7 (1)

(o) 5-5 Fujiazuma J8

(o) 5-5 Amuru J9

(2) 4-6 Tosayutaka J10

(3) 3-7 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 3-7 (3)

(4) 3-7 Sakigake J12

(o) 7-3 Kotoyuki J13 Yoshiazuma 4-6 (3)

(x) 1-9 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-6 (4)

2-3 Kitaharima Ms1 Wakanoshima 3-2

4-1 Daieisho Ms2 Ishiura 2-3

4-2 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 4-1

4-1 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 2-3

2-3 Iwasaki Ms5 Higoarashi 2-3

Ms6 Tochinoshin 5-0

As usual all the promotion zone rikishi will be in action on Day 11, so the situation will clear up significantly tomorrow.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Asashosakari

[krindel 687]

I was actually hoping that Yoshikaze might have a shot at staying, but I think today's loss made things really hard for him. Still, with neither Komusubi having anyone above them in the banzuke left to fight, I guess its still up to them to give it a shot at keeping their rank by beating the pretenders to their slot.

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

That second query result from above is pretty amazing. The only Makushit rikishi to lose to a Juryo opponent so far is Kitaharima and he did so twice...

You can see that in summary in the little known W/L-matrix (clickable from the banzuke page, link is on the left side). As you can see here, the cross-division result to makuuchi is no better, as both are 2-6, making kachi-koshi in the division a little more difficult.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Doitsuyama

[Millwood 41]

It's probably obvious to everyone but me but ...

Can someone point me to a description of the codes Asashosakari uses in the promotion/demotion predictions? The numbers and o's and x's in parens next to the rikishi names.

[Asashosakari 20,207]

It's probably obvious to everyone but me but ...

Can someone point me to a description of the codes Asashosakari uses in the promotion/demotion predictions? The numbers and o's and x's in parens next to the rikishi names.

Sure.

o = has ensured the favourable outcome (getting promoted/not getting demoted)

digits = number of wins still mathematically needed to reach that favourable outcome

x = is guaranteed to suffer the unfavourable outcome (getting demoted/not getting promoted)

And in a few days also:

? = when the by-the-numbers approach probably won't match reality, i.e. for a rikishi who still has a chance to get lucky/unlucky

"By the numbers" in this case means the assumption that 6-9 = -3 ranks, 7-8 = -1 rank, 8-7 = +1 rank, 9-6 = +3 ranks, etc.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,207]

Day 11:

Goeido of all people helped Kisenosato into a share of the makuuchi yusho lead, and his victory over yokozuna Hakuho also gave him a big boost in his quest to at least maintain his sekiwake position. Both Goeido and Tochiozan - losing to Harumafuji today - need two more wins now, with Tochiozan having the much softer remaining schedule (Takekaze/maegashira/Giku/maegashira versus Kaku/Kise/maegashira/Giku).

One step below there's our first demotion as shin-komusubi Chiyootori wasn't able to stave off his makekoshi any longer. The victorious opponent was Endo who maintained a small chance to become komusubi himself. That's no longer true for the other M4 Toyonoshima who lost to Aminishiki, and also not for Chiyotairyu who went makekoshi at komusubi Yoshikaze's hands. Aoiyama took a big step towards a sanyaku return with a win over fellow M1 Takekaze, while Ikioi's first taste of high-ranked opposition this basho ended with a loss against yusho-contending Kisenosato.

6-5 Goeido S Tochiozan 6-5

4-7 Yoshikaze K Chiyootori 3-8 (x)

6-5 Aoiyama M1 Takekaze 5-6

(x) 3-8 Chiyotairyu M2

6-5 Aminishiki M3

5-6 Endo M4 Toyonoshima 4-7 (x)

6-5 Shohozan M5 Ikioi 9-2

The most important bouts in the sanyaku race tomorrow are Tochiozan-Takekaze and Yoshikaze-Aminishiki. Ikioi gets a bit of a reprieve and "only" faces Shohozan, but it's very likely that he'll still meet Goeido (Day 14) and Tochiozan (Day 13 or 15), so it won't be an easy path towards his sanyaku debut.

Among the three lower maegashira threatened with demotion only Tokitenku managed to be victorious today (against juryo visitor Kagamio). Takanoiwa and Masunoyama lost and their danger levels are escalating rapidly. On the other side of the border Azumaryu ensured his return to the top division, and Wakanosato also took a big step in that direction. The way things are going, a three-rikishi swap (Azumaryu/Wakanosato/Kagamio for Takanoiwa/Masunoyama/Chiyonokuni) looks like the most likely outcome for the basho.

M9 Okinoumi 4-7 (o)

M10

M11

(3) 2-9 Takanoiwa M12

(3) 3-8 Masunoyama M13

(1) 5-6 Gagamaru M14 Tokitenku 5-6 (2)

M15

(1) 6-5 Arawashi M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-9 (x)

M17

(o) 8-3 Azumaryu J1

(3) 6-5 Sotairyu J2 Kagamio 7-4 (2)

J3 Wakanosato 8-3 (1)

J4 Tamaasuka 6-5 (4)

(3) 7-4 Sadanofuji J5

J6

(4) 7-4 Homarefuji J7

J8

J9

J10 Ichinojo 8-3 (x)

Low juryo saw two endangered rikishi help themselves today. Wakakoyu beat hapless Daikiho and has realistic survival hopes again, and big Mongolian Sakigake succeeded against Ishiura, sending the makushita visitor to makekoshi. Higonojo (against Tosayutaka), Yoshiazuma and Takanoyama all lost and have quite an uphill battle for the final four days.

On the makushita side it was makekoshi time not only for Ishiura but also for top-ranked Kitaharima, losing to fellow promotion zoner Horyuyama. Iwasaki dropped to 2-4 as well and won't make any further headway towards juryo for now. On the other hand Wakanoshima secured his kachikoshi and Daieisho (beating Kizenryu) improved to 5-1 - both are very likely to be in juryo with that, although I'll hold off on calling it safe. Kyokutaisei lost and has missed a chance to put in a strong claim of his own. Last not least Tochinoshin easily dispatched of Kawanari in one half of the makushita yusho race.

J7 Akiseyama 3-8 (1)

J8

J9

(1) 5-6 Tosayutaka J10

(3) 3-8 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 4-7 (2)

(3) 4-7 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 4-7 (3)

(x) 1-10 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-7 (4)

(x) 2-4 Kitaharima Ms1 Wakanoshima 4-2

5-1 Daieisho Ms2 Ishiura 2-4 (x)

4-2 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 4-2

4-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 3-3

(x) 2-4 Iwasaki Ms5 Higoarashi 3-3

Ms6 Tochinoshin 6-0

The final-round crossover bouts are starting already on Day 12, thanks to the odd number of active sekitori, and it's Wakanoshima who gets the first call. He's tasked with dragging Takanoyama back into makushita.

[Asashosakari 20,207]

I completely forgot about the "yusho" part of this thread yesterday so let's get to that now, with round 6 already underway in the lower divisions.

However, we might as well mention the juryo division for a change as it's a wide-open race in there. Low-ranked Seiro (9-2) is the sole leader after today, thanks to Ichinojo (8-3) getting outmuscled by Sadanofuji. Juryo-hitto Azumaryu holds 8 wins in his hands as well, as do Wakanosato and Kotoyuki. And the way things are going it's probably too early to rule out the 7-4's, too. (That's Kagamio, Sadanofuji, Homarefuji and Tokushinho...okay, Tokushinho as a yusho contender is a bridge too far even for me.)

These 9 guys are mostly matched up directly for tomorrow:

J13e Kotoyuki (8-3) - J12w Seiro (9-2)

J5e Sadanofuji (7-4) - J9e Amuru (6-5)

J9w Tokushinho (7-4) - J4w Tamaasuka (6-5)

J10w Ichinojo (8-3) - J2w Kagamio (7-4)

J1e Azumaryu (8-3) - J7e Homarefuji (7-4)

M14e Gagamaru (5-6) - J3w Wakanosato (8-3)

Oddly enough it's Ichinojo and Sadanofuji who have already faced the most other contenders:

---

The lower division yusho/zensho races after Day 11:

Ms6w Tochinoshin (Kasugano) 6-0

Ms20w Kawanari (Oguruma) 5-1

Ms48e Akua (Tatsunami) 6-0

Ms55w Takakiho (Takanohana) 5-1

---

Sd20e Daishoiwa (Oitekaze) 6-0

Sd32w Aoi (Shikoroyama) 5-1

Sd52e Kotohayato (Sadogatake) 5-1

Sd60e Wakanofuji (Matsugane) 6-0

Sd85e Ugonoumi (Minezaki) 5-1

Sd98w Kiriarashi (Michinoku) 6-0

---

Jd11w Abiko (Oitekaze) 5-0

Jd27w Hokkairyu (Kitanoumi) 5-0

Jd52w Mizuta (Takanohana) 5-1

Jd65e Kaisho (Asakayama) 6-0

Jd80e Fujitaisei (Fujishima) 5-0

---

Jk4e Nagao (Kasugano) 5-0

Jd12w Shodai (Tokitsukaze) 6-0

It's hard to see past Tochinoshin for the makushita yusho, but I wonder who his final opponent is going to be. Giving him the very low-ranked Akua seems out of the question, given the unsettled promotion situation, but the usual alternatives aren't very good this time either: The only high-ranked 5-1 Daieisho doesn't really need another win to get promoted, and there are no very high-ranked 3-3's this basho. I guess they'll pick Daieisho anyway, on the argument that he has a chance to force himself into a yusho playoff.

The sandanme contenders are one half of a who's who - they're just a "who?". Seriously, I've rarely seen a less noteworthy bunch of 5-0 rikishi in sandanme. 20-year-old Kotohayato is probably the most promising rikishi among them, but of course he's out of the race after today. I suppose the yusho favourite is Daishoiwa by default as the only one who's at least seen makushita before.

The jonidan group is spearheaded by Oitekaze's new heavyweight Abiko who won the jonokuchi division last time, and he ought to be the favourite here, too. Incidentally, Fujitaisei is a former 3-basho persister.

And the jonokuchi division is certainly Shodai's to lose. He has beaten the other two collegiate guys Shiba and Takagi so there's really nobody left who could threaten him. Still, this is probably going to go to a straight-up 6-0 decider (very rare of late) between Shodai and Nagao, as the latter should be able to beat Fujitaisei tomorrow.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Benevolance 2,534]

I wonder how long Chiyotairyu's bride-to-be will wait around based on his performance in clutch situations...

[umbriel2 15]

Will Takarafuji drop to juryo with 0-15 result?

Will one win save him?

[shumitto 418]

Will Takarafuji drop to juryo with 0-15 result?

Will one win save him?

A drop from the rank of Maegashira 2 straight to Juryo is very unlikely.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=m2&form1_wins=0&offset=100

[yorikiried by fate 2,038]

Didn't someone recently teach me that rikishi who have faced a Yokozuna in a given basho won't get demoted?

[ALAKTORN 346]

A drop from the rank of Maegashira 2 straight to Juryo is very unlikely.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=m2&form1_wins=0&offset=100

Wait… Hayateumi didn’t fall at all?

[Asojima 2,874]

A drop from the rank of Maegashira 2 straight to Juryo is very unlikely.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=m2&form1_wins=0&offset=100

Wait… Hayateumi didn’t fall at all?

kosho seido, arrangement which allowed rikishi who was injured during a honbasho torikumi to maintain his rank in the next honbasho (but only in one) despite the fact that he may have had to skip a whole honbasho due to the injury, rule was abolished in 2004

[Gurowake 4,145]

When I looked at the Ms situation I definitely was wondering myself if they were going to put up Tochinoshin against that guy in the bottom 4th of the division for the Yusho. I can certainly sympathize that it seems to be a complete mismatch unworthy of deciding the Yusho, but for Aki 2013 6-0 Arawashi at Ms10 was put against a 6-0 at Ms59. And lost. So it certainly looks like they're willing to a guy at 6-0 that only would get promoted with a win against someone at the bottom of the division, and it's not automatically a foregone conclusion. Unless there's been some change in philosophy since last year, precedence would seem to call for him to face the low-ranked 6-0.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 20,207]

When I looked at the Ms situation I definitely was wondering myself if they were going to put up Tochinoshin against that guy in the bottom 4th of the division for the Yusho. I can certainly sympathize that it seems to be a complete mismatch unworthy of deciding the Yusho, but for Aki 2013 6-0 Arawashi at Ms10 was put against a 6-0 at Ms59. And lost. So it certainly looks like they're willing to a guy at 6-0 that only would get promoted with a win against someone at the bottom of the division, and it's not automatically a foregone conclusion. Unless there's been some change in philosophy since last year, precedence would seem to call for him to face the low-ranked 6-0.

The same torikumi crew put Ms7e Osunaarashi against a juryo opponent (!) for his last bout just two basho earlier, mainly because of an extreme mismatch between the number of potential promotees and demotees (see here). They seem to feel it's not that bad this time (it isn't, but it's still not "good"), or maybe they think Tochinoshin is going to win no matter what so there's no point in disrupting the yusho decision. In any case, there's no fixed way of handling it, it always depends on the circumstances.

[Asashosakari 20,207]

Day 12:

The yusho lead is Hakuho's alone again after Kisenosato pretty much mattaed himself right out of their bout, and after one of the stranger losses of recent times Goeido's ozeki run is arguably toast already at the second hurdle. Tochiozan dispatched of Takekaze to move within one win of kachikoshi and has a good shot at taking over the Sekiwake East position.

The race for the komusubi slots continues to heat up - Aminishiki sent incumbent Yoshikaze to makekoshi, keeping himself in contention. Aoiyama and Ikioi were also victorious, and it looks like it'll be decided between these three, barring an unlikely run for Takekaze or Shohozan (with the latter needing lots of luck as well).

6-6 Goeido S Tochiozan 7-5

(x) 4-8 Yoshikaze K Chiyootori 3-9 (x)

7-5 Aoiyama M1 Takekaze 5-7

M2

7-5 Aminishiki M3

(x) 5-7 Endo M4

6-6 Shohozan M5 Ikioi 10-2

Aoiyama and Ikioi are meeting head to head tomorrow in what is a likely decider for one of the open spots, while Aminishiki gets the nominally easier bout against Chiyootori. Takekaze and Shohozan are also scheduled against each other and the loser will be definitely out of contention.

Gagamaru and Arawashi secured their makuuchi spots with wins today, so the demotion club is down to three rikishi now, all of whom lost today. Wakanosato wasn't able to clinch his promotion in today's crossover bout with Gagamaru, but Sotairyu and Kagamio succeeded in improving their chances.

(3) 2-10 Takanoiwa M12

(3) 3-9 Masunoyama M13

(o) 6-6 Gagamaru M14 Tokitenku 5-7 (2)

M15

(o) 7-5 Arawashi M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-10(x)

M17

(o) 9-3 Azumaryu J1

(2) 7-5 Sotairyu J2 Kagamio 8-4 (1)

J3 Wakanosato 8-4 (1)

J4 Tamaasuka 7-5 (3)

(3) 7-5 Sadanofuji J5

J6

(x) 7-5 Homarefuji J7

Tomorrow's inter-divisional assignment can be a decider for both participants as Masunoyama faces Kagamio. It's Kagamio's third makuuchi bout of the basho; he's lost the previous two. Takanoiwa's survival will depend on a bout against high-ranked Takarafuji, who's certainly better than his 1-11 record suggests, and Wakanosato can secure his makuuchi return against yusho-leading Kotoyuki.

Another Wakano, namely -shima, already did enough for his own promotion (congrats!), and he's likely going to receive a whole lot of press attention in the coming days as he's a former member of the late Hanaregoma-rijicho's stable. Takanoyama was on the losing end of Wakanoshima's victory and has been sent to makekoshi and back to makushita with this. Akiseyama and Tosayutaka extricated themselves from the demotion mess by winning today, while the four rikishi in greater danger were paired up: Sakigake beat Higonojo and Yoshiazuma succeeded against Wakakoyu.

J7 Akiseyama 4-8 (o)

J8

J9

(o) 6-6 Tosayutaka J10

(3) 3-9 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 4-8 (2)

(2) 5-7 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 5-7 (2)

(x) 1-11 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-8 (x)

Ms1 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

5-1 Daieisho Ms2

4-2 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 4-2

4-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 3-3

Ms5 Higoarashi 3-3

Ms6 Tochinoshin 6-0

Technically Wakanoshima can still drop to third in the promotion queue and there are only two spots available so far, but tomorrow's schedule is the reason we can already call him safe: The Day 13 crossover bout matches up Higonojo and Daieisho, and its result will either open up a third slot or keep Daieisho behind Wakanoshima. The only other makushita bout with promotion implications will be Tochinoshin's yusho decider against low-ranked Akua.

As far as I can tell Days 14 and 15 will still see the 4-2 trio and 3-3 Horyuyama sent up into juryo competition, so there are a lot of possibilities for how this demotion/promotion race can shake out.

[Asashosakari 20,207]

The juryo yusho race has tightened up further thanks to Kotoyuki's quick victory over leader Seiro. They're joined in the lead by Azumaryu, while Wakanosato and Ichinojo missed out and stay one win behind. They in turn are joined by Kagamio who vanquished Ichinojo for his kachikoshi.

It's likely that the yusho line will be at 11 wins so the many 7-5 rikishi are probably out of it. The next bouts of the six contenders:

J7e Homarefuji (7-5) - J12w Seiro (9-3)

J13e Kotoyuki (9-3) - J3w Wakanosato (8-4)

J1e Azumaryu (9-3) - J10w Ichinojo (8-4)

M13e Masunoyama (3-9) - J2w Kagamio (8-4)

Azumaryu can still face both Kotoyuki and Seiro, so that's probably his schedule for the final two days.

Personally, I'm rooting for the potential six-way lead after tomorrow...

And updating the lower division races with the last couple round 6 results, which Abiko and Nagao won as expected:

Ms6w Tochinoshin (Kasugano) 6-0

Ms48e Akua (Tatsunami) 6-0

---

Sd20e Daishoiwa (Oitekaze) 6-0

Sd60e Wakanofuji (Matsugane) 6-0

Sd98w Kiriarashi (Michinoku) 6-0

---

Jd11w Abiko (Oitekaze) 6-0

Jd27w Hokkairyu (Kitanoumi) 5-1

Jd65e Kaisho (Asakayama) 6-0

Jd80e Fujitaisei (Fujishima) 5-1

---

Jk4e Nagao (Kasugano) 6-0

Jd12w Shodai (Tokitsukaze) 6-0

Makushita, jonidan and jonokuchi will be decided in head-to-head fashion, while sandanme sees the higher two rikishi paired up and low-ranked Kiriarashi set against similarly-named 5-1 Tokiarashi.

[tomayama 8]

Day 12:

(3) 2-10 Takanoiwa M12

(3) 3-9 Masunoyama M13

(o) 6-6 Gagamaru M14 Tokitenku 5-7 (2)

M15

(o) 7-5 Arawashi M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-10(x)

M17

Maybe a stupid question: Why is Arawashi save and Tokitenku needs two more wins?

Edited May 23, 2014 by tomayama

[Gurowake 4,145]

Arawashi isn't 100% safe, but he's safe "by the numbers". His worst result possible is 7-8, dropping him a full rank to m17e. Unless we get an Ozeki promotion (not going to happen) or more than 2 of either junior sanyaku (seems unlikely), the rank will still exist. Tokitenku needs to avoid a 6-9 because it would drop him (again, by the numbers) 3 ranks to m17w, which doesn't exist now and would only exist if an Ozeki or Yokozuna retired. In either case it's possible that they could move them against the numbers in case of a need for more or less promotions from Juryo than available, but the charts above are just "by the numbers".

[Asashosakari 20,207]

Day 13:

Goeido was overwhelmed by Kisenosato today and at 6-7 he'll need to win both remaining bouts to finish kachikoshi. It's already being discussed in the catch-all thread and I'm inclined to agree that he's unlikely to survive as sekiwake with just 7 wins this time around. Meanwhile Tochiozan already is KK after sending Endo to his second straight MK in the meatgrinder. Tochiozan is now just one win or one Goeido loss away from becoming East Sekiwake for the first time since Kyushu 2010.

Shohozan won the matchup of kinda-contending sanyaku hopefuls against Takekaze, but they're both out of the race now anyway thanks to Aminishiki's KK-clinching victory over Chiyootori. The duel of actual contenders saw Ikioi beat Aoiyama, but he's still not fully assured of becoming sanyaku for July.

6-7 Goeido S Tochiozan 8-5

(x) 5-8 Yoshikaze K Chiyootori 3-10 (x)

7-6 Aoiyama M1 Takekaze 5-8 (x)

M2

8-5 Aminishiki M3

M4

(x) 7-6 Shohozan M5 Ikioi 11-2

As expected Ikioi will face Goeido tomorrow which will give him the opportunity to clinch the promotion. Aminishiki will meet low-ranked Toyohibiki tomorrow and may get a similar opponent on senshuraku, while Ikioi is probably set to face Tochiozan, so it's still quite possible that Aminishiki will finish 10-5 and Ikioi may miss out with 11-4 (if Aoiyama finishes KK).

The two least-performing lower maegashira lost again and both Takanoiwa and Masunoyama are now demotable by the numbers. A lucky survival is still theoretically possible for one of them but a whole lot will have to go right for that to happen. (And if the Azumaryu<->Sadanoumi exchange from last time is an indication, maybe such luck is even out of the question with the current committee.) Tokitenku was successful and is giving himself a decent shot at staying in makuuchi.

Masunoyama's loss came against juryo visitor Kagamio who should have secured his top division return with win #9. The race for the other one or two open slots remains wide open though - the lowest-ranked contender Sadanofuji beat the highest-ranked Sotairyu, and the other duo produced similar results in their bouts with Tamaasuka winning and Wakanosato losing.

(?) 2-11 Takanoiwa M12

(?) 3-10 Masunoyama M13

M14 Tokitenku 6-7 (1)

M15

M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-11(x)

M17

(o) 9-4 Azumaryu J1

(2) 7-6 Sotairyu J2 Kagamio 9-4 (o)

J3 Wakanosato 8-5 (1)

J4 Tamaasuka 8-5 (2)

(2) 8-5 Sadanofuji J5

Tamaasuka and Sadanofuji are paired up for tomorrow and the loser will be in "promotion by luck only" territory. Sotairyu and Wakanosato are both up in makuuchi, facing the quasi-demoted duo.

And phase 1 of the juryo/makushita battle is now complete; Daieisho clinched his juryo debut at the expense of Higonojo which gives us three clear exchangers on each side as Tochinoshin finished off his back-to-back 7-0's to claim a spot as well. It's quite likely that the trio will be accompanied by more promotees after Wakakoyu, Sakigake and Yoshiazuma also lost today, so all of them now need to win both remaining bouts.

(x) 3-10 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 4-9 (2)

(2) 5-8 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 5-8 (2)

(x) 2-11 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-9 (x)

Ms1 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

(o) 6-1 Daieisho Ms2

4-2 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 4-2

4-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 3-3

Ms5 Higoarashi 3-3

Ms6 Tochinoshin 7-0 (o)

Toyonoshima's withdrawal from competition means they now need an even number of makushita rikishi to fill out the schedule. Kyokutaisei and Horyuyama are starting things off, against Yoshiazuma and Sakigake respectively. Horyuyama of course isn't in the promotion race (he can't finish better than 7th in the queue) but as it's a KK/MK decider it's still of major importance to him. Wakakoyu meanwhile will go against 8-5 Homarefuji.

That leaves Tochihiryu and Kizenryu for exchange duty on senshuraku, although they could also go a different way, and I don't think it's a coincidence that these two have been held back - should at least two out of Wakakoyu/Sakigake/Yoshiazuma already lose on Day 14, we'll have 5/6 demotable rikishi and only 3/4 clear promotions (the current trio plus possibly Kyokutaisei), and they could decide to play off for a spot directly between Tochihiryu and Kizenryu. In any scenario where only one (or no) juryo rikishi loses, it should be straight-forward exchange matchups for them though.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,207]

All four makuuchi yusho contenders were successful on Day 13, so it's still Hakuho leading ahead of Ikioi, Harumafuji and Kisenosato. The latter two are paired up for tomorrow, while Hakuho faces fellow yokozuna Kakuryu and Ikioi meets Goeido.

The juryo race also sees a sole leader again after Kotoyuki was the only leading rikishi to win. Azumaryu and Seiro are joined in the runner-up spot by Kagamio and Ichinojo. Tomorrow's schedule:

J10e Tosayutaka (7-6) - J13e Kotoyuki (10-3)

J6e Chiyoo (6-7) - J10w Ichinojo (9-4)

J12w Seiro (9-4) - J5w Satoyama (5-8)

J9w Tokushinho (8-5) - J2w Kagamio (9-4)

J1e Azumaryu (9-4) - J9e Amuru (8-5)

I must admit I don't understand that schedule at all.

Would have been easily possible to match up Azumaryu/Kagamio against Seiro/Kotoyuki, guaranteeing that the yusho won't be decided early. Even their actual four opponents could have been paired up (Amuru-Tosayutaka and Tokushinho-Satoyama), so it's not a case of the schedule being difficult to make. Just very strange.

The lower division races were decided in the expected fashion:

Ms6w Tochinoshin (Kasugano) 7-0

Ms48e Akua (Tatsunami) 6-1

---

Sd20e Daishoiwa (Oitekaze) 7-0

Sd60e Wakanofuji (Matsugane) 6-1

Sd98w Kiriarashi (Michinoku) 7-0

---

Jd11w Abiko (Oitekaze) 7-0

Jd65e Kaisho (Asakayama) 6-1

---

Jk4e Nagao (Kasugano) 6-1

Jd12w Shodai (Tokitsukaze) 7-0

Daishoiwa and Kiriarashi will play off for the sandanme yusho on senshuraku.

Late edit: Oops, had the jonokuchi result the wrong way around.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Asashosakari

[shumitto 418]

Strange torikumi indeed. Regardless of what the torikumi-makers decide, Kotoyuki has finally adjusted the right knee with the "flow" of his sumo and this Yusho will be his. By the way, the only Japanese rikishi out of 5(!) contenders.

Edited May 23, 2014 by shumitto

[Asashosakari 20,207]

Day 14:

The makuuchi yusho race remains a truly hair-raising affair this basho as it was Kisenosato's turn to profit from his opponent's manual clumsiness. That has also served to eliminate Harumafuji from the race, he can now only play the role of spoiler for leading Hakuho's chances tomorrow. Ikioi also dropped out, losing to sekiwake Goeido who is now assured of staying in sanyaku at a minimum.

Ikioi's own sanyaku chances took an additional damper thanks to Aminishiki's victory against Toyohibiki. Aoiyama wasn't able to convert his chance against Shohozan and now needs to win on senshuraku.

7-7 Goeido S Tochiozan 9-5

(x) 5-9 Yoshikaze K Chiyootori 4-10 (x)

7-7 Aoiyama M1

M2

9-5 Aminishiki M3

M4

M5 Ikioi 11-3

It's a nice three-way race for the two open slots, with Aoiyama challenging for his kachikoshi against Kaisei (8-6), Aminishiki going against Homasho (9-5) and Ikioi having to contend with Tochiozan as expected.

An Aoiyama loss would make it a straight-forward decision in favour of Aminishiki and Ikioi. Should the Bulgarian win, Ikioi will be in the better position to claim the second slot - he'll only need a win of his own or an Aminishiki loss, while Aminishiki must win and hope Ikioi loses. (Though I suppose there's a tiny chance that they might add a third slot if all three of them are successful.)

Goeido for his part faces ailing ozeki Kotoshogiku tomorrow, and quite honestly it would be a major surprise if he wasn't 8-7 after the bout. Tochiozan clinched the "promotion" to the East side by beating the ozeki himself today.

Takanoiwa and Masunoyama improved their records a bit by beating the visitors Sotairyu and Wakanosato, which barely keeps their survival chances alive. Tokitenku is now safe after a victory over Myogiryu, while the contender head-to-head in juryo was won by Sadanofuji against Tamaasuka.

(?) 3-11 Takanoiwa M12

(?) 4-10 Masunoyama M13

M14 Tokitenku 7-7 (o)

M15

M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-12(x)

M17

(o) 10-4 Azumaryu J1

(?) 7-7 Sotairyu J2 Kagamio 10-4 (o)

J3 Wakanosato 8-6 (1)

J4 Tamaasuka 8-6 (?)

(1) 9-5 Sadanofuji J5

We know that one of Takanoiwa/Masunoyama is definitely dropping, but other than that it's still quite an open race. The four juryo contenders all meet different opponents tomorrow, so it's conceivable that all four could lose which wouldn't leave a strong third candidate for promotion. On the other hand, should both Wakanosato and Sadanofuji win, one of them will get unlucky in the next banzuke session. (Unless "safe" Arawashi or Gagamaru picks up a 3rd straight loss and gets excess-demoted...or maaaybe even Chiyomaru who has fallen from 5-5 to 5-9, but that would be pretty rough.)

In any case, the deciding matchups:

J5e Sadanofuji (9-5) - J8w Shotenro (8-6)

J10w Ichinojo (10-4) - J4w Tamaasuka (8-6)

J7e Homarefuji (8-6) - J3w Wakanosato (8-6)

J2e Sotairyu (7-7) - J9e Amuru (8-6)

M11e Toyohibiki (7-7) - M11w Chiyomaru (5-9)

M14e Gagamaru (6-8) - M9w Okinoumi (6-8)

M8e Myogiryu (7-7) - M16e Arawashi (7-7)

M13e Masunoyama (4-10) - M7w Tokushoryu (5-9)

M4e Endo (6-8) - M12e Takanoiwa (3-11)

Further down the juryo ranks it's time to say goodbye to Yoshiazuma whose 9th loss came at the hands of Kyokutaisei, ensuring that both will trade places on the next banzuke. Sakigake also lost and is now demotable as well, but is ranked high enough that he might still survive through luck. Wakakoyu was successful, however, and still has the power to remain sekitori by right.

(x) 4-10 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 5-9 (1)

(?) 5-9 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 5-9 (x)

(x) 2-12 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-10 (x)

Ms1 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

(o) 6-1 Daieisho Ms2

4-2 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 5-2 (o)

4-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 4-3

Ms5 Higoarashi 3-4 (x)

Ms6 Tochinoshin 7-0 (o)

With two losses among the three juryo rikishi, the scenario I outlined yesterday has materialized: Instead of being sent into juryo Tochihiryu and Kizenryu will battle head to head for the 5th open slot. The question is just who's going to have to go down for the winner:

1) Wakakoyu win, Sakigake win or loss: Sakigake drops

2) Wakakoyu loss, Sakigake win: Wakakoyu drops for the Tochihiryu/Kizenryu winner, Sakigake may or may not drop for the T/K loser

3) Wakakoyu loss, Sakigake loss: both should drop and both of T/K should be promoted

And last not least the juryo yusho race sees no less than five contenders going into the final day after today's inexplicable torikumi paid off with Kotoyuki and all pursuers being successful. This time they will be matching up the leaders:

J10w Ichinojo (10-4) - J4w Tamaasuka (8-6)

J13e Kotoyuki (11-3) - J2w Kagamio (10-4)

J1e Azumaryu (10-4) - J12w Seiro (10-4)

Kotoyuki winning outright is arguably the most likely scenario here, but Kagamio is a tricky opponent. Should the Mongolian win the bout and draw even, we'll get to see a three- or four-man playoff.

Edited May 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[lackmaker 454]

Is it now possible for Goeido to retain a sekiwake spot if both Ikioi and Aminishiki lose on senshuraku?

[Chiyozakura 163]

Is it now possible for Goeido to retain a sekiwake spot if both Ikioi and Aminishiki lose on senshuraku?

If Goeido wins tomorrow he will definitely stay at Sekiwake because he cannot be demoted with a kachi koshi. If he loses it depends on the banzuke committee. In the early 90's he would have been sure to be back to Maegashira with a make koshi, the normal result with a 7-8 in the last year was a demotion to Komusubi but it is also possible that he is only demoted to Sekiwake West. That is what makes the "Guess the banzuke" game so interesting and sometimes a bit frustrating...