Haru banzuke discussion.

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

Edited my post further up to represent my actual opinion. Sorry that.

[Asameshimae 220]

Speaking of the Haru banzuke, when is it they announce the shin-juryo list? I know it is pretty soon after a previous basho, but I can't remember when.

[Asameshimae 220]

I don't parse the banzuke like many do (never was much good with numbers) but I couldn't help but wondering if Chiyotairyu's (still want to call him Meigetsuin) chances of makuuchi promotion wouldn't be hampered by the fact that one of his wins that got him the yusho was a fusensho win against Amuru, on the day they could have largely settled the yusho race themselves if it had been fought. I mean they consider lots of factors when they make these promotions no? Or maybe I am just venting that we didn't get a showdown between the two top yusho contenders. Poor Amuru, hope he can bounce back from his injury, as he has before.

[Doitsuyama 1,193]

I mean they consider lots of factors when they make these promotions no?

Many people seem to mean that. Surprisingly often those are the guys who aren't good with numbers. Or good at the GTB challenge.

Just consider this: If it were true what you mean then we would have loads of examples, no? I just can't remember of an example where the head-to-head bout was decisive in the banzuke rank, but maybe you can?

[Kintamayama 45,542]

Speaking of the Haru banzuke, when is it they announce the shin-juryo list? I know it is pretty soon after a previous basho, but I can't remember when.

Today/tomorrow-depends where you are-actually probably already published..

[Asameshimae 220]

I mean they consider lots of factors when they make these promotions no?

Many people seem to mean that. Surprisingly often those are the guys who aren't good with numbers. Or good at the GTB challenge.

Just consider this: If it were true what you mean then we would have loads of examples, no? I just can't remember of an example where the head-to-head bout was decisive in the banzuke rank, but maybe you can?

You read to the end right?

"Or maybe I am just venting thavioust we didn't get a showdown between the two top yusho contenders. Poor Amuru, hope he can bounce back from his injury, as he has before."

I don't really care about G'ing the TB, I am sorry if you assumed I did, I was just making a point about my thoughts about Chiyotairyu.

Edited January 25, 2012 by Asanomeshi

[Asameshimae 220]

Speaking of the Haru banzuke, when is it they announce the shin-juryo list? I know it is pretty soon after a previous basho, but I can't remember when.

Today/tomorrow-depends where you are-actually probably already published..

I knew it was early, but not that early. Good deal Thanks.

[Asashosakari 19,682]

I don't parse the banzuke like many do (never was much good with numbers) but I couldn't help but wondering if Chiyotairyu's (still want to call him Meigetsuin) chances of makuuchi promotion wouldn't be hampered by the fact that one of his wins that got him the yusho was a fusensho win against Amuru, on the day they could have largely settled the yusho race themselves if it had been fought. I mean they consider lots of factors when they make these promotions no? Or maybe I am just venting that we didn't get a showdown between the two top yusho contenders. Poor Amuru, hope he can bounce back from his injury, as he has before.

I strongly doubt fusensho victories are ever held against the rikishi on the receiving side - what's he supposed to do?

Sometimes the promotion/demotion decisions between divisions can be tricky, but the question of Chiyotairyu's promotion chances really just comes down to this: After considering all the obvious candidates and the usual guidelines, we can pencil in only 40 rikishi for the next makuuchi. Who's going to take the last two slots? Takanoyama is borderline enough that he can be left in, but arguably nobody else is. Tosayutaka and Sagatsukasa would be demotable even if they had one win more each, so they're non-borderline almost by definition. And on the juryo side, Chiyotairyu is pretty much the only candidate that can be called borderline - just barely so, but he'd still be a much better choice than either Shotenro or Kotoyuki (who both missed the traditional borderliner mark for a juryo rikishi by a win, too).

All that doesn't mean that Chiyotairyu is 100% going up, but Tosa/Saga would be incredibly lucky if one of them were allowed to stay.

[EizoShita 0]

You considers only statistics and forgets some facts. ...

By formula ...

Chastising somebody for going by statistics, then trying to do everything by "formula" yourself...odd.

There is nothing odd. Statistics can give right answers only to right questions.

Situation in banzuke is unusual, usual questions doesn't give right answers.

The formula gives SW to Aminishiki. He would be the only "deserving promote" in sanyaku + in first 2-3 of maegashira by formula. Now what we have ? There are 4 free (8 positions) lines of jo'i. Candidates are Toyonoshima SW(5-10)=M4W by formula (3ME by mediane) and "deserving promotes". Lets take a look how deserving they really are. Expected places by formula are:

2*M1W; 1*M2E; 3*M3E; 3*M3W

After filling KE; KW and M1E with Gaga, Ozan and Myo we have left positions to fill from M1W to M3W. Candidates are Toyonoshima + 4 other with calculated result 2*M3E and 2*3W, none of them from jo'I. Putting Toy before anybody of them wouldn't be unfair for none of them, because everyone still get place equal or better than calculated one (incl Tochinoshin M4E).

In fact by Jaak's statistics median for SW (5-10) is 3E (and closer to 2W than 3W 2 against 7), So even by Jaak's statistics 2W seems quite good. But for me not anymore, now I think I was too modest. Right place for Toyo is M1W.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Which are right questions to statistics ?

After promoting Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato we are in situation where a lot of places in in jo'I are free, including 2-3 places in lower sanyaku,. This situation will be probably repeated to the end of year, until some rikishi achieve new level or/and ozekis & Kakuryu start sucking.

Normally M1 or at least M1E is filled by rikishi who's calculated place promises promotion to sanyaku. Promotion to sanyaku with weaker calculated place is rare. But not this basho and probably even this year.

I' think right question is to take result S1W (5-10) and compare it with result M4W(8-7), comparable results must be from same basho, of course, and then ask which one of them ends up higher in next bashos banzuke. Then make same procedure with other results.

To be honest there are no right questions, in current situation, cause statistics is law of huge numbers. 28 times SW (5-10) since 1956, id est 56 years and 336 bashos (or even less). The number of 28 would be reduced radically, cause there are lot of bashos where SW(5-10) can't be compared with anything. So 36 years is too short time to make such queries, 3600 years perhaps would be sufficient.

Why I like formula ? Many reasons. One of them is, that formula shows whether the promotee is really deserved promotee or not.

Edited January 25, 2012 by EizoShita

[Asashosakari 19,682]

There is nothing odd. Statistics can give right answers only to right questions.

Situation in banzuke is unusual, usual questions doesn't give right answers.

My point is that the last time you tried to predict a banzuke "by formula" here on the forum, you would have finished somewhere in the bottom 25% of GTB players if I remember correctly, so clearly your formula application is (or at least can be) also a case of using either the wrong tool or asking the wrong questions. That you don't appear to realize this is what's odd.

[Jaak 7]

Going through examples again

M10w 12:3

5 precedents, 1 sanyaku promotion (K1w Tochihikari 1980.05), median M1w

M8w 11:4

12 precedents, 4 sanyaku promotions, 4x M1e, so median M1e, higher than M10w 12:3 median.

No precedent pair for same banzuke.

M5e 9:6

32 precedents, 10 sanyaku promotions, 6x M1e, so median between M1e and M1w, lower than M8w 11:4 median.

1 precedent pair after 1964.05:

Kitanofuji M5e 9:6 got S1w, Wakanami M8w 11:4 got K1w

M4w 8:7

55 precedents, 8 sanyaku promotions, 10x M1e, 7x M1w, 8x M2e, median M2e.

[Bealzbob 0]

I don't parse the banzuke like many do (never was much good with numbers) but I couldn't help but wondering if Chiyotairyu's (still want to call him Meigetsuin) chances of makuuchi promotion wouldn't be hampered by the fact that one of his wins that got him the yusho was a fusensho win against Amuru, on the day they could have largely settled the yusho race themselves if it had been fought. I mean they consider lots of factors when they make these promotions no? Or maybe I am just venting that we didn't get a showdown between the two top yusho contenders. Poor Amuru, hope he can bounce back from his injury, as he has before.

Subsequent responses notwithstanding. Another way of answering this is to flip it around. Go to my original post and look at the scenario. There are 6 definite demotions from makuuchi and only 5 remotely plausible promotions. The 6th 'promotion' or non-demotion will be one of the options I put forward. Given that fusensho doesn't count against a rikishi, I think his record stands on it's own merits.

[EizoShita 0]

Going through examples again

M10w 12:3

5 precedents, 1 sanyaku promotion (K1w Tochihikari 1980.05), median M1w

M8w 11:4

12 precedents, 4 sanyaku promotions, 4x M1e, so median M1e, higher than M10w 12:3 median.

No precedent pair for same banzuke.

M5e 9:6

32 precedents, 10 sanyaku promotions, 6x M1e, so median between M1e and M1w, lower than M8w 11:4 median.

1 precedent pair after 1964.05:

Kitanofuji M5e 9:6 got S1w, Wakanami M8w 11:4 got K1w

M4w 8:7

55 precedents, 8 sanyaku promotions, 10x M1e, 7x M1w, 8x M2e, median M2e.

Couldn't you find any basho at all, where S1W ended up with result 5-10 and at same time at least one of next conditions is fulfilled:

a) M4W ended up 8-7

Or

b) M6W 9-6

Or

c) M8W 10-5

Or

d) M10W 11-4

Or

e) M12W 12-3

Or

f) M6E 9-6

Or

g) M8E 10-5

Or

h) M10E 11-4

Or

i) M12E 12-3

If such basho exists, then who got higher position in next banzuke- exsekiwake or maegashira promotee. Doesn't matter at all how high they are in next banzuke, matters only which one is higher.

For example in this basho 4 conditions were true: (a) Tochinowaka;( b) Kyokutenho;( f) Yoshikaze and (h) Tokitenku and after publication next banzuke we have 4 results to compare.

And again: Comparable results must be from same basho.

[Randomitsuki 2,843]

Here are the answers to your questions (all banzuke since 1957.09 included). First number: Sekiwake was promoted higher; second number: Maegashira was promoted higher; 0-0: hasn't occurred before.l

a) 1-5

b) 0-2

c) 1-1

d) 0-0

e) 0-0

f) 2-2

g) 0-0

h) 0-0

i) 0-0

[Asashosakari 19,682]

First number: Sekiwake was promoted higher; second number: Maegashira was promoted higher

b [M6w 9-6] 0-2

f [M6e 9-6] 2-2

Hehehehehe.

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

No offence to formula users, but I reckon they're pretty useless for predicting the banzuke. I've seen some utterly ludicrous decisions by the banzuke makers far too many times to rely on logic too much. I'm sure Asashosakari could come up with a few amusing examples from past banzuke. I think a successful GTB player probably just gets in the head of the banzuke makers with time and experience.

[Asashosakari 19,682]

... a few amusing examples from past banzuke.

Just look up anything involving Aran from the last couple of years. (Holiday feeling...)

I think a successful GTB player probably just gets in the head of the banzuke makers with time and experience.

More specifically, the heads of the current banzuke makers. While there are some very broad trends that hold across longer periods of time, at the micro level there's a fairly large amount of variability that simply can't be captured by looking at precedents, because it depends on the specific characters that are part of the banzuke-making group. (Will Aran still get preferential treatment once Mihogaseki is no longer deputy shimpan-bucho?)

Personally, I've found that more can be learned by going through a bunch of recent banzuke (say, the last two years' worth) to see if there might be any current, general trends than by looking up precedents for specific rank/win combinations from decades before.

[Dr.Radical 16]

I don't know how likely it is but I, for one, am pulling for a promotion up to makuuchi for Chiyotairyu. I'm really curious to see how he does in the top division and I don't want to wait another tournament to find out!

[EizoShita 0]

Personally, I've found that more can be learned by going through a bunch of recent banzuke (say, the last two years' worth) to see if there might be any current, general trends than by looking up precedents for specific rank/win combinations from decades before.

Generally exactly in same opinion but.....

Last 2 years inlude 2 scandals with 2 wave of punishments.

So it's unuseable.

For example, remember sending Miyabiyama, Goeido and Toyonoshima to Juryo in spite of lacking deserving promotees. Some guys were raised to makuuchi with absolutely ridiculous results. And that wasn't all. First they rise after Juryo yusho Toyo back to makuuchi, but not high enough IMHO, following 14-1 result and not raising him to sanyaku.

Just 0-15 (or 0-0-15 because of injury) and 0-0-15 caused by punishment are 2 completely different things. In second case banzuke luck is excluded by banzukemakers. Ok, I can somehow live with it, but punishing Toyo 3 times wasn't logical and wasn't fair.

On the other hand raising MK rikishis to higher division after second punishment wave was unexpected, but logical.

Edited January 26, 2012 by EizoShita

[Asashosakari 19,682]

following 14-1 result and not raising him to sanyaku.

That was perfectly in line with other recent decisions that all violated the "formula" in exactly the same way, namely massive favouring of rank over record. I think you've just provided some "can't see the forest for the trees" evidence against your approach.

[Andreas21 188]

The next Banzuke will be special as there are so many unclear spots from Komusubi downwards.

I'm always fascinated how the Banzuke is set up in such cases. Finally they will come up with something which makes sense somehow, although it is apparently totally unpredictable. It is so unlike any other sports ranking system (even in the board game Go which is also special of Japan). A mixture of clearly defined items (wins) and weakly defined (fighting style), even prospective thinking (at least this is what I assume).

[yorikiried by fate 2,029]

A mixture of clearly defined items (wins) and weakly defined (fighting style), even prospective thinking (at least this is what I assume).

You know, this is exactly how my best ever yusho winning GTB entry was conceived, only with different content.

A mixture of clearly defined items (wines) and weakly defined (Kotwassisname? Onemodown! Canstannaprick.), even prospective thinking (Fiveminsisnough. Weasmabed?).

[Kogam 13]

Is there any chance for Chiyotairyu if his oyakata has anything to say about it? Kokonoe Oyakata apparently is not amused with his arrogance. I wish him the best and hope his oyakata can turn him around!

[Asameshimae 220]

I've talked with Chiyotairyu a few times, and arrogance is kind of a word that comes to mind. He also likes to talk and says what he thinks which can be such a rarity with "men of few words" rikishi that I have come to like him quite a bit. If he doesn't make makuuchi this time, he will before long.

[Orion 431]

I've talked with Chiyotairyu a few times, and arrogance is kind of a word that comes to mind. He also likes to talk and says what he thinks which can be such a rarity with "men of few words" rikishi that I have come to like him quite a bit. If he doesn't make makuuchi this time, he will before long.

For "men of few words" you have to go back a long time. As I recall it was Kongo (now, and long since, Nishonoseki oyakata) who broke the mould. He was regarded as a real blabbermouth -- as opposed to virtually everybody else. Most of the rikishi being interviwed these days will have something to say. This of course does not include the newly-promoted sekitori who routinely say "Gambarimasu".

Orion