EizoShita

6 promotions-demotions seems quite surprising decision. My first quess was 5, second 7. It's very small difference between 4-3 from Ms4E and Ms4W. At same time there is very small difference between results of Oniarashi, Hokutokuni and Kyokushuho. I'm confident that Oniarashi must go down for sure, because he loses to Hokutokuni even mathematically, not talking about position in last banzuke. Results of calculations: Kyokushuho J15W Hokutokuni J15E Oniarashi J15W Maybe there is some inside information, that some rikishi is going to end his career, but doesn't publiced it yet ? Kokkai ? Personally, I don't think so. Most of them would just drop next basho, take after that another 2 month salary, and end up afterwards.

Generally exactly in same opinion but..... Last 2 years inlude 2 scandals with 2 wave of punishments. So it's unuseable. For example, remember sending Miyabiyama, Goeido and Toyonoshima to Juryo in spite of lacking deserving promotees. Some guys were raised to makuuchi with absolutely ridiculous results. And that wasn't all. First they rise after Juryo yusho Toyo back to makuuchi, but not high enough IMHO, following 14-1 result and not raising him to sanyaku. Just 0-15 (or 0-0-15 because of injury) and 0-0-15 caused by punishment are 2 completely different things. In second case banzuke luck is excluded by banzukemakers. Ok, I can somehow live with it, but punishing Toyo 3 times wasn't logical and wasn't fair. On the other hand raising MK rikishis to higher division after second punishment wave was unexpected, but logical.

Couldn't you find any basho at all, where S1W ended up with result 5-10 and at same time at least one of next conditions is fulfilled: a) M4W ended up 8-7 Or b) M6W 9-6 Or c) M8W 10-5 Or d) M10W 11-4 Or e) M12W 12-3 Or f) M6E 9-6 Or g) M8E 10-5 Or h) M10E 11-4 Or i) M12E 12-3 If such basho exists, then who got higher position in next banzuke- exsekiwake or maegashira promotee. Doesn't matter at all how high they are in next banzuke, matters only which one is higher. For example in this basho 4 conditions were true: (a) Tochinowaka;( b) Kyokutenho;( f) Yoshikaze and (h) Tokitenku and after publication next banzuke we have 4 results to compare. And again: Comparable results must be from same basho.

Chastising somebody for going by statistics, then trying to do everything by "formula" yourself...odd. There is nothing odd. Statistics can give right answers only to right questions. Situation in banzuke is unusual, usual questions doesn't give right answers. The formula gives SW to Aminishiki. He would be the only "deserving promote" in sanyaku + in first 2-3 of maegashira by formula. Now what we have ? There are 4 free (8 positions) lines of jo'i. Candidates are Toyonoshima SW(5-10)=M4W by formula (3ME by mediane) and "deserving promotes". Lets take a look how deserving they really are. Expected places by formula are: 2*M1W; 1*M2E; 3*M3E; 3*M3W After filling KE; KW and M1E with Gaga, Ozan and Myo we have left positions to fill from M1W to M3W. Candidates are Toyonoshima + 4 other with calculated result 2*M3E and 2*3W, none of them from jo'I. Putting Toy before anybody of them wouldn't be unfair for none of them, because everyone still get place equal or better than calculated one (incl Tochinoshin M4E). In fact by Jaak's statistics median for SW (5-10) is 3E (and closer to 2W than 3W 2 against 7), So even by Jaak's statistics 2W seems quite good. But for me not anymore, now I think I was too modest. Right place for Toyo is M1W. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Which are right questions to statistics ? After promoting Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato we are in situation where a lot of places in in jo'I are free, including 2-3 places in lower sanyaku,. This situation will be probably repeated to the end of year, until some rikishi achieve new level or/and ozekis & Kakuryu start sucking. Normally M1 or at least M1E is filled by rikishi who's calculated place promises promotion to sanyaku. Promotion to sanyaku with weaker calculated place is rare. But not this basho and probably even this year. I' think right question is to take result S1W (5-10) and compare it with result M4W(8-7), comparable results must be from same basho, of course, and then ask which one of them ends up higher in next bashos banzuke. Then make same procedure with other results. To be honest there are no right questions, in current situation, cause statistics is law of huge numbers. 28 times SW (5-10) since 1956, id est 56 years and 336 bashos (or even less). The number of 28 would be reduced radically, cause there are lot of bashos where SW(5-10) can't be compared with anything. So 36 years is too short time to make such queries, 3600 years perhaps would be sufficient. Why I like formula ? Many reasons. One of them is, that formula shows whether the promotee is really deserved promotee or not.

S W Aminishiki M1W(9-6)-----------M(-2)W K E Myogiryu M5E(9-6)------------------M2E K W Tochiozan M8W(11-4)-----------M1W M1 E Gagamaru M10W(12-3)--------M1W M1 W Yoshikaze M6E(9-6)-----------M3E M2 E Toyonoshima SW(5-10)---------M4W M2 W Tochinowaka M4W(8-7)------M3W M3 E Tokitenku M10E(11-4)-----------M3E M3 W Kyokutenho M6W(9-6)--------M3W -------------------------------------------------- Added calculated (by formula) places to the end of each line. M1=maegashira1 M0=komusubi M(-1)=sekiwake

Precedents for 5:10 S1w: Recent ones - after 2010.07 Kotoshogiku M3e after 2010.05 Aminishiki M2w after 2009.03 Kisenosato M4e after 2007.01 Miyabiyama M3e Longer term - 28 cases since 1956 3x M1w - last after 1984.11 Konishiki 5x M2e - last after 1998.11 Takatoriki 4x M2w 9x M3e Thus the median is M3e. Any banzuke reasons to deviate upwards this time? M1-M2 can easily be filled with deserving promotees. You considers only statistics and forgets some facts. Current situation may be not unique, but it is rare. 7 rikishis are above others - MK would be very surprising result, then comes Toyonoshima (underachiever this basho) - expected results are mostly KK with some occasional MK-s, then all others - their expected results are MK-s, often double-digit, and sometimes occasionally minimal KK. I spoke of course about results in jo'i positions. And what happened now ? Exactly one KK from jo'i positions (below S1E) - Aminishiki. In lower sanyaku will be 2-3 free places for a while, maybe to the end of year. Situation was quite different before 2 new Japanese got the title of ozeki. Now only Aminishikis result is by formula worth of sanyaku position. By formula Gaga and Ozan should be on M1, Myogiryu on M2 and all others M3 or lower. So putting Toy to M2 makes sense to me.

Why squeeze 3 spots between Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho? They are the same row, whereas Myogiryu and Yoshikaze are 2 positions away. If 5 people need to fit between them, it could be 3 between Myogiryu and Yoshikaze, then 2 between Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho... Because by formula 1 win equals almost (in fact a little bit less) 2 lines. Therefore 1) M6E(9-6)=M10E(11-4) with little advantage to M6; M4W(8-7)=M6(9-6) with little advantage to M4W; E has advantage in front of W (for example difference between M7E and M7W is 1 position, exactly same as difference between M7W and M8E, in spite of different line number). Of course it didn't explain, why I put Toyonoshima at M2E, but always when somebody sucked in sanyaku, banzukemakers were merciful for him, so i had to put him higher than formula showed.

S W Aminishiki M1W(9-6) K E Myogiryu M5E(9-6) K W Tochiozan M8W(11-4) M1 E Gagamaru M10W(12-3) M1 W Yoshikaze M6E(9-6) M2 E Toyonoshima SW(5-10) M2 W Tochinowaka M4W(8-7) M3 E Tokitenku M10E(11-4) M3 W Kyokutenho M6W(9-6) ------------------------------------ There is absolutely no reason to prefere W M4 Tochinowaka to others. Position W-4M was completely outside jo'i. Just compare schedule with E-4M, which schedule was almost as hard as jo'is. As a matter of fact Homashos 7-8 result is much more respectable, than Tochinowakas 8-7.

A bit disappointing, that. I usually associate such tactics with Russians. You mean Aran and 3 other guys, now exmakushitas + Orora and Amuru ? They are all Russian citicens, but only ethnic Russian is Amuru. Orora is Buryatian, culturally very close Mongols. Rest of them are Ossetians. I think Orora has no tactics at all. Didn't noticed yet such tactics in Amurus arsenal.

I would tend to agree with this. Looking at the video, Baruto seemed to be shaking his head in incredulity and rolling his eyes at Kisenosato's actions before tachi-ai. As for Harumafuji's henka: I don't like it, but I suppose it is up to Hakuho not to fall for it. The pressure's really on the yokozuna to continue his staggering 25 basho Y/J-Y run. I Agree and there is also second reason to say, that Kise get what he deserved. That is his henka against Giku on day 10. As for Harumafuji's henka: I think last basho gyoji took away Harumafujis win and gave it to Hakuho. So Harumafuji was grateful to Baruto for his senshuraku win over Hakuho. Conspiracy (yaocho) theory: Baruto got a lot of money from Giku to revenge Kise's day 10 henka, but transferred it almost immediately to Harumafuji. :-)

J8w (3-12) Kanbayashi or J13e (6-9) Hitenryu. Which one was lucky ?

????? They are from same heya. What do you mean by that ? Too many yaochos for one beya ?

Probable results: 1) sekiwake Kotoshogiku = KK 2) sekiwake Kakuryu = KK 3) sekiwake Kisenosato = KK?? 4) komusubi Tochinoshin = KK?? 5) komusubi Goeido = MK 6) M2 Toyonoshima = ?? ------------------------------- How many sekiwakes and komusubis will be in next banzuke ? And who will fill places ? Especially if Kisenosato gets KK and Toyonoshima gets MK. And it will be even more interesting when Tochinoshin gets MK.

Why not M1W Tosayutaka ?

Depending on Kimurayama and Miyabiyama, there may be 7 open slots to find promotees from juryo. Miyabiyama will stay even with a 7-8, I'm pretty sure. Of course he will stay in. In light danger are only Kimurayama and Tochinonada. 2 Juryo rikishis are already in despite of senshurakus results. They are Takarafuji and Sagatsukasa. If Daido or Takayasu lose, then nobody is danger. Other promotion candidates are Masunoyama and Fujiazuma. If both Takayasu and Daido lose then a light chance have Hochiyama, Tamaasuka and Yoshiazuma, but nobody falls from yurio to give them palce.