Natsu Basho Forecast

[Kasugaran 0]

Thanks guys. So my next question is... what would Kasugaoo need to get promoted again? Assuming he is in J4? I am always amazed by the knowledge out there. I mean I know all about the wrestling, but nothing about how the ranking system works! :-O

[Kashunowaka 249]

Thanks guys. So my next question is... what would Kasugaoo need to get promoted again? Assuming he is in J4? I am always amazed by the knowledge out there. I mean I know all about the wrestling, but nothing about how the ranking system works! (Applauding...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If you are Juryo 4, 10-5 usually gets you promoted. 9-6 gives you a good chance, depending on those around and the number of demotees from makuuchi.

[Kasugaran 0]

If you are Juryo 4, 10-5 usually gets you promoted. 9-6 gives you a good chance, depending on those around and the number of demotees from makuuchi.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Wow that was fast! Thanks a lot....

[Guest Guy Caballero]

I see no reason for Tamanoshima to be in sanyaku ahead of Wakanosato. Sato has proven he belongs in sanyaku, while Tamanoshima's been a joke there (K 7-8, S1 5-10, K 6-9). I say let him prove himself at M1 before thinking of further promotion.

[Asashosakari 16,827]

If I take a closer look on his guess, it seems more reasonable than mine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My Juryo guesses always look reasonable. (Applauding...) Unfortunately, my pretend-GTB score for Juryo is usually something like 25 out of 56...

Thanks for posting your version! (Protesting...)

I see no reason for Tamanoshima to be in sanyaku ahead of Wakanosato. Sato has proven he belongs in sanyaku, while Tamanoshima's been a joke  there (K 7-8, S1 5-10, K 6-9).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think that matters at all. Whoever puts up the numbers in the preceding basho, gets the nod. In this case, Sato and Tamanoshima have pretty much the same claim to the second Komusubi slot, with each having one disadvantage (from a "banzuke rules of thumb" perspective) working against them: For Wakanosato, it's that the Kyokai has been very harsh on 8-7 records lately, so he could well end up at M1e. For Tamanoshima it's that there seems to be an implicit evaluation of the opponents each rikishi had when the Kyokai is faced with close decisions like this one; Sato got the full meatgrinder treatment, Tama didn't (in fact he didn't face any sanyaku this time).

I've gone with Sato for the Kw slot, but who knows.

Edited March 30, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Guest Guy Caballero]

For Tamanoshima it's that there seems to be an implicit evaluation of the opponents each rikishi had when the Kyokai is faced with close decisions like this one; Sato got the full meatgrinder treatment, Tama didn't (in fact he didn't face any sanyaku this time).

That's more or less what I was getting at. I don't think it's to anyone's benefit to put someone in sanyaku who will probably lose 10 matches next time out, as Tamanoshima probably would. All things being equal, I say they go with the guy who they think probably belongs in the top ranks -- and Sato has proven he does, 8-7 record notwithstanding.

[Asashosakari 16,827]

That's more or less what I was getting at. I don't think it's to anyone's benefit to put someone in sanyaku who will probably lose 10 matches next time out, as Tamanoshima probably would.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sato lost 9 bouts two months ago. (Applauding...) Likely performance in the next basho just doesn't enter the Kyokai's considerations. (Mostly because the majority of lower sanyaku predictably goes make-koshi anyway*, and I'm sure the Kyokai has long made their peace with that fact.) Otherwise, I guess that was Kotooshu's last sanyaku stint...

The only thing that matters is the immediately preceding basho. Otherwise, we'd never have seen things like Komusubi Kaiho or Komusubi Wakanoyama.

Incidentally, I consider Tamanoshima's previous sanyaku results quite respectable as these things go, and not at all a joke.

* BTW, if the lower sanyaku didn't go make-koshi at such a high rate, we'd hear either a) renewed complaints that the Ozeki all suck, or b) complaints that sanyaku is cannibalizing the high Maegashira and that as a result lower Maegashira are getting promoted out of rank all the time, making the top bouts deadly boring. (Say hello to M2e Jumonji because there weren't any other promotion candidates! He'll go 3-12, naturally.) Somebody has to lose among those top 16 guys after all. I'll take 2 or 3 Sekiwake and Komusubi going make-koshi under those circumstances, I think, especially since that's the "natural" way of things anyway.

Edited March 30, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Guest takipaul]

My guess is that Wakanosato will still be Maegashira 1 next basho... but who knows, we'll just have to wait and see.

[amgaa99 0]

Where can I see other full forecast?

[Kashunowaka 249]

Where can I see other full forecast?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You are welcome to make one. Lots of people here try to make a banzuke for the upcoming basho, and then enter their guess in the game "Guess the Banzuke". Therefore you won't see many guesses openly published here.

[AsaMoe 0]

when the basho is finished, i am so sumo-exhausted, that i make a break for two weaks or so. So i always miss the discussion of the new Banzule.

My banzuke contains 7 rikishi, all starting with a T, following directly after each other.

Has something similar happened before

(while writing this, i realise, that it is some kind of stupid. Maybe this is right for Latin, but not for Japanes ?)

[Kashunowaka 249]

when the basho is finished, i am so sumo-exhausted, that i make a break for two weaks or so. So i always miss the discussion of the new Banzule.

My banzuke contains 7 rikishi, all starting with a T, following directly after each other.

Has something similar happened before

(while writing this, i realise, that it is some kind of stupid. Maybe this is right for Latin, but not for Japanes ?)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That was a really geeky question. :-) Being the geek that I am, I couldn't resist looking up the answer in my database. There hasn't been such a case in makuuchi since 1947. The closest is 1989 Nagoya, when Kotoinazuma, Kitakachidoki, Kotofuji, Kasugafuji, Kotonishiki and Koboyama were ranked after one another. If you want to look further back, http://banzuke.com is your friend.

But as you say, this is hardly relevant for Japanese.

[Odoriou 0]

My banzuke contains 7 rikishi, all starting with a T, following directly after each other.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Let me guess... :-D You obviously put Toyozakura, Takekaze, Tokitenku, Takanowaka, Toyonoshima, Tokitsuumi and Tamakasuga (or maybe Toki, too) in a row from Maegashira #13 to #16. ;-)

[Doitsuyama 1,150]

(while writing this, i realise, that it is some kind of stupid. Maybe this is right for Latin, but not for Japanese ?)

I don't think it's stupid. You even can browse rikishi by hiragana on the Kyokai site where they are grouped by the starting letter. Incidentally, one of the groups contains [a, e, i, o, u] which of course deviates from Latin. I don't think Kashunowaka will have to repeat his search as T and K groups are the best candidates.

[Kashunowaka 249]

(while writing this, i realise, that it is some kind of stupid. Maybe this is right for Latin, but not for Japanese ?)

I don't think it's stupid. You even can browse rikishi by hiragana on the Kyokai site where they are grouped by the starting letter. Incidentally, one of the groups contains [a, e, i, o, u] which of course deviates from Latin. I don't think Kashunowaka will have to repeat his search as T and K groups are the best candidates.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Indeed. There are several instances of 4 or 5 rikishi in a row starting with the same Latin letter, always T or K. No other Latin letter has more than three in a row, the latest being Kyushu 2002.

Natsu 1979 had Tamakiyama, Tamanofuji, Takamiyama and Taniarashi next to each other on the banzuke. Same starting hiragana syllable. Can you say Takamiyama-Tamakiyama? ;-)

[Asashosakari 16,827]

Indeed. There are several instances of 4 or 5 rikishi in a row starting with the same Latin letter, always T or K. No other Latin letter has more than three in a row, the latest being Kyushu 2002.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

At the risk of taking this to new depths of geekiness, which other letters besides A have managed to appear as 3 in a row?

Edit: BTW, that Kyushu 2002 banzuke doesn't just have 3 A's, it also has 3 (!) different instances of 3 T's...almost a fourth, too, if Tochinonada had been M6w instead of M6e...

Edited April 11, 2005 by Asashosakari

[Kashunowaka 249]

At the risk of taking this to new depths of geekiness, which other letters besides A have managed to appear as 3 in a row?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A, D, F, K, M, O, S, T, W.

Three in a row with the same starting hiragana: Fu, Ki, Ko, Mi, Ta, To, Wa.

I have also found several instances of Waka-Waka-Waka and Koto-Koto-Koto, and one Tochi-Tochi-Tochi.

Finding all these occurrences is left as an exercise for the reader. ;-)

[aderechelsea 107]

You guys are a bit crazy in the head ... aren't you?

i am amazed by the ways one can find to entertain himself while waiting for the next basho to start.

anyway .... interesting read.

[AsaMoe 0]

Let me guess...  You obviously put Toyozakura, Takekaze, Tokitenku, Takanowaka, Toyonoshima, Tokitsuumi and Tamakasuga (or maybe Toki, too) in a row from Maegashira #13 to #16. 

(Oops! )

i gave Toyozakura a bit of banzuke luck and he is 10e. Maybe this is to much luck. But your are right with Toki.

[AsaMoe 0]

You guys are a bit crazy in the head ... aren't you?

i am amazed by the ways one can find to entertain himself while waiting for the next basho to start.

I know you guys are good, but i am still amazed.

[Asashosakari 16,827]

At the risk of taking this to new depths of geekiness, which other letters besides A have managed to appear as 3 in a row?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

A, D, F, K, M, O, S, T, W.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks. (Shaking head...) I'm quite surprised to see F and O in there, but with so many banzukes and so many rikishi on each, I guess it was bound to happen at some point. Could I trouble you for the number of triplets for each of the letters, K and T excluded? (That way, if I ever get bored and do try to find them, I'd at least know when to stop searching. ;-)) If you have that data already, that is; don't bother otherwise. It's not that important. :-O

You guys are a bit crazy in the head ... aren't you?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

You realized that just now? B-)

Edited April 11, 2005 by Asashosakari

[aderechelsea 107]

not really ... but it seems that you just can't seize to amaze me with your crazyness ... ;-)

[Kashunowaka 249]

Thanks. (Shaking head...) I'm quite surprised to see F and O in there, but with so many banzukes and so many rikishi on each, I guess it was bound to happen at some point. Could I trouble you for the number of triplets for each of the letters, K and T excluded? (That way, if I ever get bored and do try to find them, I'd at least know when to stop searching. ;-)) If you have that data already, that is; don't bother otherwise. It's not that important. :-O

I think I'll PM you about this. B-)

[Asashosakari 16,827]

Thanks. :-O I'm quite surprised to see F and O in there, but with so many banzukes and so many rikishi on each, I guess it was bound to happen at some point. Could I trouble you for the number of triplets for each of the letters, K and T excluded? (That way, if I ever get bored and do try to find them, I'd at least know when to stop searching. ;-)) If you have that data already, that is; don't bother otherwise. It's not that important. B-)

I think I'll PM you about this. :-)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Intimidated by adere, huh? (Shaking head...) Thanks for the data.

[aderechelsea 107]

didn't want to cause that much fear .... ;-)