Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Asashosakari 20,225]

Juryo/makushita by the numbers:

Day 11

Tohakuryu   W  J6w   4-7    safe

               Rank  W-L    high  low   highQ  lowQ
Endo           J3e   kyujo  Ms4e  Ms4e    5th   1st
Kayo        L  J6e   2-9          Ms3e          2nd
Tamashoho   L  J7e   3-8          Ms2e          2nd
Tsurugisho  W  J9w   4-7          Ms2w          2nd
Hakuyozan   W  J10e  5-6          Ms1e          2nd
Miyanokaze  L  J10w  2-9          Ms7w          1st
Takarafuji  L  J12e  4-7          Ms5e          1st
Asasuiryu   L  J12w  6-5          Ms1w          2nd
Kyokukaiyu  L  J13e  3-8          Ms8e          1st
Shiden      L  J14e  5-6          Ms5e          1st
Nishinoryu  L  J14w  6-5          Ms3w          2nd

Kitanowaka  L  Ms1w  5-1    J10w  J12w    1st   1st*
Takakento   W  Ms2e  4-2    J13e  Ms1e    2nd   6th
Nagamura    W  Ms2w  4-2    J13w  Ms1w    2nd   6th
Otsuji      W  Ms3e  4-2    J14e  Ms2e    2nd   6th
Wakanosho      Ms3w  4-1    J12w  Ms2w    2nd*  6th
Kamito         Ms4e  2-3    Ms3e          6th   
Mudoho      W  Ms5e  3-3    Ms4e          6th   
Goshima        Ms5w  4-1    J14w  Ms4w    2nd   8th

Daiamami    L  Ms1e  2-4          out

Queue tie-break assumption:
* Wakanosho 6-1 behind Kitanowaka 5-2

(Compared to previous tournaments, I've changed "max" and "min" to "high" and "low" to denote the potential positions in the table header, mostly because I kept confusing myself about what max and min actually mean, which gave me a bad feeling that it's probably unclear to people reading it as well.)

Having been spared matchups with juryo opponents, the makushita-joi has seen fit to commit an absolute assault on lower-ranked makushita this basho, currently totalling a record of 12-2, so there are a lot of promotion contenders this time. At least today the juryo division decided to play along with the four most-endangered rikishi all losing and several others taking their licks as well. A couple of days ago it still looked as though there couldn't possibly be enough demotable scores to accommodate all reasonable promotion candidacies, now it just might work out. We're probably going to see a ton of cross-divisional matches on the final three days.

The sixth round for the makushitans will only be completed tomorrow. Wakanosho and Goshima are battling it out, and the winner of that will definitely not be facing Kitanowaka for their potential 6-1 scores as they both already met him. Elsewhere, Kamito will try to avoid going makekoshi and dropping out of the promotion race altogether, although it's not looking great for him even if he still were to get to 4-3 (and ditto for Mudoho, of course).

As indicated in the listing, Tohakuryu in juryo and Daiamami in makushita both left the race today for opposite reasons, and Kitanowaka should be basically assured of his return to the paid ranks even with his loss to fellow ex-maegashira Shimazuumi today which dropped him from yusho contention.

 

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

18 hours ago, Reonito said:

It's not like there's a lot of juryo guys beating down the door...

Yeah, but I expect at least three of them to reach makuuchi by the math. If Hitoshi falls out, as seems at least probable right now, then it works out. If he doesn't, or if Fuji gets there at 11-4 (plausible now that he beat Oshoumi), it gets messier. If both happen, ugh.

[Koorifuu 1,110]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Wakanosho and Goshima are battling it out, and the winner of that will definitely not be facing Kitanowaka for their potential 6-1 scores as they both already met him.

Just adding for posteriority's sake - even if it's obvious for the well versed - that Kitanowaka is actually the reason both of those got that "1".

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Having been spared matchups with juryo opponents, the makushita-joi has seen fit to commit an absolute assault on lower-ranked makushita this basho, currently totalling a record of 12-2

Interestingly, the virtual yusho decider is one of the latter!

Edited September 24 by Koorifuu

[Reonito 1,774]

3 hours ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah, but I expect at least three of them to reach makuuchi by the math. If Hitoshi falls out, as seems at least probable right now, then it works out. If he doesn't, or if Fuji gets there at 11-4 (plausible now that he beat Oshoumi), it gets messier. If both happen, ugh.

Yeah, someone in juryo could end up on the wrong side of banzuke luck, which is not something we've seen very recently IIRC (though both Ryuden and Shonannoumi got stuck in juryo with 9-6 from J3 and Hidenoumi with 8-7 from J1w in the past couple of years). We've also had some J5's who didn't make it with 10-5, and Tobizaru missed from J4 with 10-5 back in 2020.

Edited September 24 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,774]

Asashosakari already covered this thoroughly above, but here's the brief version:

Juryo demotion order: Kyokukaiyu (4), Miyanokaze (4), Shiden (3), Takarafuji (3), Endo (2), Nishinoryu (2), Kayo (2)

Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka, Takakento (1), Nagamura (1), Otsuji (1), Wakanosho (1), Goshima (2), Kamito (?), Mudoho (?)

Four bouts remain for the Juryo guys; everyone in the Ms promotion queue has fought six times with the exception of Wakanosho (4-1) and Goshima (4-1), who fight H2H tomorrow, and Kamito (2-3), who will try to stay alive againt Shohoryu. Wins for safety/promotable case are in parentheses; ? = can't get there by the numbers but could get dragged up by winning out if enough incumbents have unsalvageable records (if there is still such a thing).

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 12:

Already achieved: Oshoumi, Nishikifuji

1 win: none

2 wins: Chiyoshoma, Mita, Fujiseiun

3 wins: Daiseizan, Asahakuryu

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 12:

1 win: Sadanoumi, Asakoryu, Shonannoumi

2 wins: Meisei

3 wins: Hitoshi

Already demotable: Takerufuji, Nishikigi

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Key matches for tomorrow (Friday):

• Hitoshi (needs 3 wins)          vs Fujinokawa
• Asakoryu (needs 1 win)        vs Daieisho
• Sadaoumi (needs 1 win)       vs Tomokaze
• Chiyoshoma (needs 2 wins) vs Shonannoumi (needs 1 win)
• Daiseizan (needs 3 wins)      vs Kazekeno
• Asahakuryu (needs 3 wins)  vs Oshoumi
• Mita (needs 2 wins)               vs Shirokuma
• Fujiseiun (needs 2 wins)       vs Kotokuzan

 

[Asashosakari 20,225]

Day 12

Asasuiryu   W  J12w  7-5    safe

               Rank  W-L    high  low   highQ  lowQ
Endo           J3e   kyujo  Ms4e  Ms4e    4th   1st
Kayo        W  J6e   3-9          Ms1e          2nd
Tamashoho   L  J7e   3-9          Ms2e          2nd
Tsurugisho  L  J9w   4-8          Ms2w          2nd
Hakuyozan   L  J10e  5-7          Ms1e          2nd
Miyanokaze  W  J10w  3-9          Ms5w          1st
Takarafuji  L  J12e  4-8          Ms5e          1st
Kyokukaiyu  W  J13e  4-8          Ms6e          1st
Shiden      W  J14e  6-6          Ms3e          2nd
Nishinoryu  L  J14w  6-6          Ms3w          2nd

Kitanowaka     Ms1w  5-1    J10w  J12w    1st   1st
Takakento      Ms2e  4-2    J13e  Ms1e    2nd   6th
Nagamura       Ms2w  4-2    J13w  Ms1w    2nd   6th
Otsuji         Ms3e  4-2    J14e  Ms2e    2nd   6th
Wakanosho   L  Ms3w  4-2    J14w  Ms2w    2nd   6th
Mudoho         Ms5e  3-3    Ms4e          7th   
Goshima     W  Ms5w  5-1    J14w  Ms2w    2nd   6th

Kamito      L  Ms4e  2-4          out

A better day for the 10 juryo rikishi at risk with an even split of five wins and five losses. Shiden defeated Tamashoho head-to-head, which was very good news for him as he entered the day as one of the four most endangered rikishi (needing 3 or 4 wins). Kyokukaiyu and Miyanokaze also improved on their highly unfavourable positions, while veteran Takarafuji was unsuccessful. Takarafuji's results looked okay for a while despite largely unconvincing sumo, but he has now dropped from 4-4 to 4-8 since the middle Sunday.

Nevertheless, still no certain demotions besides that of absent Endo. Debutant Asasuiryu no longer has to worry about that, and getting a fully safe record just like his is probably advisable for everyone this time; chances are high that everyone who calculates into makushita will have to be dropped.

The makushita side of the race continues to be clear as mud. Goshima beat Wakanosho, so now there's a five-rikishi block whose members all could still finish as high as 2nd and as low as 6th, and every possible position in between. Kamito fell off with makekoshi today, and Mudoho ought to be out of the running as well; it is for certain that he can only finish 7th-best in promotion priority, and by the numbers only at most four juryo rikishi calculate below him, so whoever might be 7th-worst in the demotion queue will compare favourably to him. (In fact, Mudoho was probably out already before today, when he was at most 6th-best and five juryo rikishi calculated below...I overlooked that in yesterday's update.)

All six relevant promotion candidates including Kitanowaka will be making juryo appearances across the final three days. As seems to have become customary in recent months, the scheduling committee is starting off with the two highest-ranked contenders, Kitanowaka and Takakento, for Day 13 - they are facing Takarafuji and Kyokukaiyu respectively, two of the three juryo rikishi who cannot afford any more losses. The third of them, Miyanokaze, is going way up the rankings to battle J2e Kotoeiho (5-7). Takakento can personally make sure of his promotion here as his victory would create a second open slot and assure him of second place in the promotion priority order.

Four other juryo guys have been paired up: Tsurugisho and Nishinoryu meet, as do Kayo and Hakuyozan. Only Nishinoryu still won't have done enough if he wins, the other three would be reaching safe shores. Also fighting for immediate safety is Tamashoho, he's going against J5e Tochitaikai (6-6). And for completeness: Shiden faces J8e Hatsuyama (6-6).

Edited September 25 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,774]

Juryo demotion order: Kyokukaiyu (3), Miyanokaze (3), Takarafuji (3), Endo (2), Nishinoryu (2), Shiden (2), four others needing one win (see Asashosakari's post just above for details).

Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka, Takakento (1), Nagamura (1), Otsuji (1), Wakanosho (1), Goshima (1).

Three bouts remain for the Juryo guys and just one on the Makushita side. As also mentioned above, the hopefuls should all get direct shots at endangered incumbents. The modern non-scandal record for Juryo promotions is seven, after Hatsu 2018, and six is quite rare, though we did just see it after Aki last year.

[Reonito 1,774]

Sanyaku demotion order: Takayasu, Kirishima (3), Wakatakakage (2).

Sanyaku promotion order: Takanosho (1), Oho (2), Hakuoho (3), Tamawashi (3), Wakamotoharu (3).

I've bolded Takayasu, but he could yet stay at K I suppose if the two slots aren't filled by falling Sekiwake and the promotion candidates have a bad final three days. The numbers for Kirishima and WTK are to hold rank; one fewer win would limit their fall to Komusubi. If both of them defend their ranks, Aonishiki needs 2 wins to force a promotion by the usual criteria.

[Reonito 1,774]

Makuuchi <-> Juryo: so far, we have Takerufuji and Nishikigi dropping and Oshoumi and Nishikifuji replacing them (observing the conservation of "Nishiki" law). As things stand right now, Chiyoshoma and Mita would get exchanged with Meisei and Hitoshi, but a lot can change in the last three days; Tiger Boy runs through the possibilities and key bouts above.

[Asashosakari 20,225]

Belated summary of round six of the lower division yusho races on Day 11 (results):

Makushita (4 > 2)
5-1 Ms1w Kitanowaka (Hakkaku)
6-0 Ms20e Shimazuumi (Hanaregoma)
6-0 Ms50e Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
5-1 Ms59w Aratakayama (Tokiwayama)

Sandanme (5 > 2)
5-1 Sd14w Kazeeidai (Oshiogawa)
6-0 Sd26e Kazuma (Kise)
5-1 Sd39w Shuji (Kise)
6-0 Sd54w Seiyu (Hidenoyama)
5-1 Sd74w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonidan (6 > 4)
6-0 Jd22w Okada (Takadagawa)
5-1 Jd35e Jokoki (Musashigawa)
6-0 Jd44w Kaki (Oitekaze)
6-0 Jd73w Buomaru (Musashigawa)
5-1 Jd81e Takasu (Tagonoura)
6-0 Jd99w Teraosho (Shikoroyama)

Jonokuchi (2 > 1)
5-1 Jk6w Daishisho (Oitekaze)
6-0 Jk24e Tatsubayama (Tokitsukaze)

List without the defeated rikishi:

 

Makushita (2)
6-0 Ms20e Shimazuumi (Hanaregoma)
6-0 Ms50e Daiyusho (Oitekaze)

Sandanme (2)
6-0 Sd26e Kazuma (Kise)
6-0 Sd54w Seiyu (Hidenoyama)

Jonidan (4)
6-0 Jd22w Okada (Takadagawa)
6-0 Jd44w Kaki (Oitekaze)
6-0 Jd73w Buomaru (Musashigawa)
6-0 Jd99w Teraosho (Shikoroyama)

Jonokuchi (1)
6-0 Jk24e Tatsubayama (Tokitsukaze)

The round concluded with a bit of a surprise when Shimazuumi vanquished higher-ranked Kitanowaka, and quite convincingly so, but I suppose if they're both back to reasonably healthy it's not really an upset as they had pretty evenly matched careers before their respective injuries (and the H2H was strongly in Shimazuumi's favour). Other than that, no real shocks. The sole cross-divisional matchup saw jonidan Okada as the winner, so that division is this basho's place to be as an undefeated rikishi with no less than four contenders still standing.

All potential for same-heya playoffs was eliminated, so this is all going to progress in orderly fashion now, with straight yusho deciders in makushita and sandanme, and two "semifinals" in jonidan. Tatsubayama has received a 5-1 opponent who - somewhat unusually - hails from within jonokuchi, namely 25-year-old Jk15w Chiyokozan. He's only down there because of two missed tournaments, but even at his best he has only been a high jonidan regular with an occasional trip into lowest sandanme (three times, all 3-4). Tatsubayama should be a significant, though not prohibitive, favourite here.

(This is one of those times that I wish they treated the jonokuchi yusho as more of a "real" title that deserves to have the best candidates contesting it at the end, even at an increased risk of a 6-1 playoff. Fellow rookie Nishimura was right there at 5-1 as well and would certainly have been a tougher opponent for Tatsubayama at least on paper. The torikumi hadn't worked out to pair them up in the early going this basho even though both started 4-0. Quite unfortunate considering they also didn't meet in maezumo two months ago when that was unexpectedly ended after just two days.)

Anyway, in the unlikely event that Tatsubayama is defeated by Chiyokozan, we will have a 6-1 playoff with most likely two additional participants. The "qualifying" bouts for that are:

Jk22e Wakasa (5-1) - Jk6w Daishisho (5-1)
Jk17e Tosoumi (4-2) - Jk23w Nishimura (5-1)

Edited September 25 by Asashosakari

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 13:

Already achieved: Oshoumi, Nishikifuji

1 win: Chiyoshoma, Fujiseiun

2 wins: Mita, Asahakuryu

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 13:

1 win: Meisei, Sadanoumi, Shonannoumi

2 wins: Hitoshi

Already demotable: Takerufuji, Nishikigi

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...

Edited September 26 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Maguroyama 27]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 13:

Already achieved: Oshoumi, Nishikifuji

1 win: Chiyoshoma, Fujiseiun

2 wins: Mita, Asahakuryu

Shouldn’t Kotoeiho be counted in? He could possibly be third in promotion line if he gets two wins and others lose out?

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

17 minutes ago, Maguroyama said:

Shouldn’t Kotoeiho be counted in? He could possibly be third in promotion line if he gets two wins and others lose out?

I don't think so. If he wins out he will end up on 8-7 which would theoretically put him at J1e. That kind of record CAN result in promotion if there is a shortage of solid candidates but it's not a "by the numbers" promotion case. If anything it looks like there will be more candidates than vacancies this time.

[Reonito 1,774]

Juryo demotion order: Miyanokaze (X), Endo (2), Kyokukaiyu (2), Shiden (2), Takarafuji (2), Tsurugisho (1), Nishinoryu (1), Hakuyozan (1).

Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka, Nagamura (1), Otsuji (1), Wakanosho (1), Goshima (1), Takakento (?).

Miyanokaze is now demotable, but could yet end up high enough in the demotion queue to survive. Kitanowaka's crossover bout loss today did not affect his position as first in line, but Takakento's bumped him to last, at least for now. Tomorrow it's Nagamura vs. Miyanokaze and Otsuji against Shiden. A win by Nagamura seals promotion and confirms Miyanokaze's demotion. A win by Otsuji also takes him up, though not necessarily at Shiden's expense. A loss would place either contender behind Takakento. Day 15 should feature Wakanosho and Goshima against whichever bubble incumbents are most endangered after tomorrow's action.

[Reonito 1,774]

Sanyaku demotion order: Takayasu, Kirishima (2), Wakatakakage (2).

Sanyaku promotion order: Oho (1), Takanosho (1), Hakuoho (2), Hiradoumi (?), Ura (?), Wakamotoharu (?).

I've bolded Takayasu, but he could yet stay at K I suppose if the two slots aren't filled by falling Sekiwake and the promotion candidates have a bad final three days. The numbers for Kirishima and WTK are to hold rank; one fewer win would limit their fall to Komusubi. If both of them defend their ranks, Aonishiki needs 1 win to force a promotion by the usual criteria.

Both Sekiwake have tough tasks on their hands tomorrow. Kirishima will try to mathematically eliminate Takanosho from the yusho race, but the maegashira leads the head-to-head 15-5. Wakatakakage has Hoshoryu, who has his back to the wall to stay in the hunt. That head-to-head favors WTK 8-7, but Hoshoryu has won all four of their recent meetings. Senshuraku should see WTK vs. Kotozakura and Kirishima vs. Takayasu.

With up to 3 potential sanyaku openings still in the cards, and Hakuoho not yet kachi-koshi, I've added a few long shots to the promotion queue.

[Kishinoyama 624]

16 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Sanyaku demotion order: Takayasu, 

I wouldn’t be so sure of that after staying in Sanyaku with a 6-9 record…. 

[Reonito 1,774]

22 minutes ago, Kishinoyama said:

I wouldn’t be so sure of that after staying in Sanyaku with a 6-9 record…. 

As noted immediately below that list: "I've bolded Takayasu, but he could yet stay at K I suppose if the two slots aren't filled by falling Sekiwake and the promotion candidates have a bad final three days."

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

Key matches for tomorrow (Saturday):

• Hitoshi (needs 2 wins)          vs Shonannoumi (needs 1 win)
• Meisei (needs 1 win)             vs Atamifui
• Sadanoumi (needs 1 win)     vs Churanoumi
• Chiyoshoma (needs 1 win)   vs Hatsuyama
• Mita (needs 2 wins)               vs Kazekeno
• Asahakuryu (needs 2 wins)  vs Kagayaki
• Fujiseiun (needs 1 win)         vs Asanoyama

Edited September 26 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Reonito 1,774]

37 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Mita (needs 2 wins)               vs Asahakuryu (needs 2 wins)  Elimination match!

They already met, Mita has Kazekeno and Asa fights Kagayaki

[Tigerboy1966 1,626]

5 minutes ago, Reonito said:

43 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Mita (needs 2 wins)               vs Asahakuryu (needs 2 wins)  Elimination match!

They already met, Mita has Kazekeno and Asa fights Kagayaki

Thanks. Corrected. They were next to each other on my spreadsheet and I invented a phantom rematch!

[Yamanashi 4,069]

18 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Thanks. Corrected. They were next to each other on my spreadsheet and I invented a phantom rematch!

Mita vs Asahakuryu II: This Time, It's Impossible!!

With all the cross-posting between Juryo and Makuuchi, it's even harder to track the "normal" pairings by day 11.